Professor Lamb's presentation and report 18 May 2010

[gunnyrob]

Ladies & Gents, enclosed is the presentation and associated report that was delivered by Professor Lamb on Tuesday. He has granted permission for their use, provided he is referenced if they are quoted in media etc.

[Milts]

I love it, you have made my day. What an excellent and thorough examination of the data, with clear conclusions - finally an easy source to link to.

Bling (and thanks) to you and Professor Lamb.

[NighthawkNZ:Me]

there is heaps of threads with this info now...

[trailblazer]

awesome thanks for that. Great work

[rastuscat]

Okay, so the guts is that the problem is visibility.

Grossly, there are 2 factors that can effect this change:
1. The ability of the looker to see
People tend to see what their mind expects them to see, as this is what their subconscious is telling them is there. People don't expect to see a motorcycle, so they don't. Or a horse, or a pedestrian. Okay, maybe they saw the horse.

2. The conspicuity of the rider (how visible he/she is).
This comes down to the size of the bike, the lights displayed, the visual noise the whole combination displays.

Right, so now the rider has three options.
A. Wait until all the other road users change their psychology, and then all will be well.Of course, this will mean having to wait for the gubbermint to do something about it, which they haven't up til now, and don't look to be doing any time soon. Call this the cop-out option.
B. Increase personal conspicuity by wearing brighter colours, using lights, riding safer lines (where you can be seen, not in black spots), riding cautiously.
C. Combination of both, doing his own bit until the gubbermint kicks in.

Of course, there is option D., which is to blame everyone else, slag the gubbermint, condemn ACC, blame foreigners, bag the cops, ignore the good advice Charlie has given and do nothing.

Trouble is, nothing will change.

So there.

[bogan]

How about the legalisation of headlight modulators for bikes? so it looks like they flicker, giving an illusion of movement, which our brains are hard wired to respond to. Not overly sure why these are illegal in the first place.

[dipshit]

Okay, so the guts is that the problem is visibility.

Grossly, there are 2 factors that can effect this change:

A 3rd major factor he mentions is the motorcyclist travelling faster than the usual flow of traffic and thus having problems with other traffic failing to yield for him/her.

Or are we going to conveniently overlook that one...???

[candor]

Good no great paper - much in the style of many fired at Govt the last 4 years. But one needs to ask why the authorities never just go to the evidence before settling on strategies. It's because the strategy cornerstones taken from Safety Directions papers are non negotiable.

The hitch comes with the final plea by Lamb et al for a visibility education campaign targeting drivers. The NZTA/Police policy of "greatest enforceable risk (GER)" states that major publicity campaigns must only support the major enforcement ones. Paul Graham of NZTA has said the emphasis must stay on current campaigns for another 5 years (meeting minutes. National Road Safety Committee). Evidence simply doesn't phase these zealots.

Their formula is about setting risk level by calibrating yearly kms by set vehicle classes, and applying levers to achieve that. Hence taxing riders off roads is likely seen as preferable to actually improving the safety environment. They won't care that deaths and injuries are explainable by increased registrations. The fast track if riding is decreed intrinsically less safe than other modes per person, is to reduce the ease of participation... a rich mans sport by 20_ _ ? It's this whole "no more bullrush or tree climbing" attitude.


A budget of over a million given to a fatigue campaign for one year, just to shut safety advocat Martin Jenkins up, was just completely pulled as the GER Primadonnas had a long long hissy fit about this brief not fitting the contractual agreed strategic direction (GER + the RAM formula). Fatigue is clearly one variable in visibility issues/inattention. But is not enforceable. MoT staff said "if you could just find us a way to make it pay..."

As visibility and checking or attention is not enforceable via a preemptive ticket campaign NZTA/Police will gag at funding a campaign - neurotic comments behind closed doors by speed and drink dependents will be such as "this could dilute and weaken the message of the big campaigns".

If it is decided to throw the dogs a bone it will be crumby budget, one likely fast withdrawn like the fatigue and drug driving campaigns. The standard behaviour of the advertising honchos is to say that after a short weak as run the campaign was found ineffective as they expected would be the case without a major enforcement stick. Which will be backed up with dodgy evidence of a kind completely opposite to all evidence seen in all other countries.

The Government is about to face sticky repercussions over withdrawal of the fatigue campaign (addressing a 20% toll factor) so the queue for evidence based campaigns is not only long, but also likely to be congested. The main competitors are anti alcohol groups which want more dollars for all sorts of fringe things like female drunk drivers, and promo support of the silly new SO CALLED lower alcohol limit has a 7 milion budget, likely to rise once that gets the go ahead.

To assume the Government would act logical and normal in the face of good and well ordered advice lie Lambs report is to go a bridge to far as Key puts it, and assumes we live in Oz imho. A few individuals in the right places will make it their mission to thwart - they would not survive in the private sector.

Not trying to be negative, just to show what comes between sane ideas and action. Prolly would be beneficial to research up on impacts of visibility / pay attention / scan campaigns on MCist safety overseas if anything is out there. Because MoT is adamant that education can't work without enforcement. despite that they have been informed by many parties, repetitively, of succesful non GER initiatives used in all other OECD countries. We are the shameful exception in having no major non GER campaigns.

Their defense will be that poor visibility is addressed obliquely with the intersection gambler adverts. No interest in root cause.

[swbarnett]

Okay, so the guts is that the problem is visibility.

Right, so now the rider has three options.
A. Wait until all the other road users change their psychology,
B. Increase personal conspicuity
C. Combination of both, doing his own bit until the gubbermint kicks in.

Of course, there is option D., which is to blame everyone else, slag the gubbermint, condemn ACC, blame foreigners, bag the cops, ignore the good advice Charlie has given and do nothing.

Trouble is, nothing will change.

So there.

You're missing the most important option of all - Don't expect to be seen.. I live by this every day.

[CookMySock]

How about the legalisation of headlight modulators for bikes? so it looks like they flicker, giving an illusion of movement, which our brains are hard wired to respond to. Not overly sure why these are illegal in the first place.

I was at bunnings last week looking for chipboard, and the forklift in their warehouse loudly beeped its fucking nut off the whole time. 20 mins later I had a solid sized headache and I was ready to bash the damn thing. I asked the guys there how they tolerated it, and they looked downcast and proceeded to tell me they got in mucho crap after trying to quieten it down a bit. "Dangerous" they reckon, and counter productive.

So I think modulators will make no difference. Everyone else will just go there as well, and before long there will be a sea of blinding blinking super-bright xenon discharge lamps and flashing dayglo LED powered jackets and boots with blinking xenon flashtubes.

Just make sure it's you who has the brighter headlight, louder exhaust, more scary helmet, or whatever it takes to alert people to your presence. Or else stay way the hell back out of the way and don't poke your nose where it's not welcome.

Steve

[Winston001]

I honestly don't see what all the fuss is about. Motorcycling is dangerous. Beginning and end of story. Accept that and we'll be more watchful.


Just thinking a bit more - I've been in 4 bike accidents in 30 years. 3 were my responsibility entirely and didn't involve anyone else. The 4th was the fault of the rider turning in front of a car at night, putting me, the pillion in hospital. Things happen no biggie.