Space weather... [Archive] - Kiwi Biker forums

mashman

2nd March 2011, 08:24

Just to shift the focus out of the Chch Earthquake thread... If not, MOD's, feel free to delete this thread...

Interesting reading last night about how the moon does create a "land tide" also, but that the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes seems to have no statistically significant relation to the position of the moon

got a linky for that? t'would be better than watching high speed chases :rofl:

scissorhands

2nd March 2011, 08:37

Indian engineer's site (Indians are big believers in astrology...)

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

BTW this sort of thinking does lead to witchcraft:corn:

mashman

2nd March 2011, 08:43

Indian engineer's site (Indians are big believers in astrology...)

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

BTW this sort of thinking does lead to witchcraft:corn:

cool, will have a read... as were pretty much every civilisation on the planet at one point or another, if what i've read is to be believed :yes:

steve_t

2nd March 2011, 10:14

http://sciblogs.co.nz/the-atavism/2011/03/01/ken-ring-cant-predict-earthquakes-either/

This was really interesting and informative :niceone:

mashman

2nd March 2011, 10:24

The thing is scientists spend all their time trying to come up with new ways to explain and predict shit, and they tend to leave no stone unturned, so they will have spent a gazillion man hours exploring those theories and ended up discounting them. If a scientist could publish a paper supporting a hypothesis that the moon influenced/caused earthquakes, and was therefore able to predict them with any degree of certainty he'd be lined up for a Nobel prize and be cited in everything, and that shit really spins their wheels.

I don't think Ken Ring has discovered something that everyone else has missed.

However my plastic Jesus statue on the other hand...

Fair enough, but once they find no strict correlation or degree of certainty, the subject is confined to the "solved" pile never to be revisited again :facepalm:, even if they were wrong. I'd say take a look at the drugs industry and recent research as an example of how Science can fuck things up... but as this is space weather. What about the (i'll find source (http://theblogprof.blogspot.com/2010/12/meteorologist-piers-corbyn-mocked-by.html)) sun man and his prediction that this winter was gonna be one of the coldest for a long time, whereas the meteorologists were predicting a "mild" winter... erm, erm, erm, 1 - 0 to the sun man... Even solar scientists agree that there is an unpredictable predictability to the sunspot cycle etc... hence they predict sunspots and peaks and troughs of activity (the peak has been changed from 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and noe 2013) and they are the best of the best... WTF! Anyhoo, our modern day science is millenia behind what older civilisations knew :facepalm:

To that end, science and the general consensus isn't always right, not by a long chalk in some ways. The world was flat, the world is held by elephants, tortoises etc.. (yet everyone forgets the snake :yes:, and that's symbology and not literal as the naysayers espouse it to be :facepalm:)... so much knowledge has been lost through the ages and we rely heavily on instruments instead of age long observation to give us our extra-terrestrial science. I find that hugely 1 eyed, HUGELY.

That being the case, i'm more than happy with Ken Rings hypothesis, even if it isn't mainstream, just like the sun man was laughed at... relying on the scientific community isn't always a good thing, global warming cough cough... let alone when it comes to revisiting theories that may have held more water than they thought... Ken Ring may not have discovered something that everyone else missed, but he has perhaps rediscovered it instead :).

The plastic Jesus is just mumbo jumbo, i reckon you knock it over on purpose :bleh:

oldrider

2nd March 2011, 11:15

When a question is unresolved why close doors and minds to possible solutions?

It is not compulsory to believe everything you read or hear but it would be very unreasonable to be forced to accept one unproven line of thought only!

I think that the worst scaremongers are the historic places trust people who just can't seem to get it into their heads that most of our heritage buildings are dangerous and should be demolished before they kill any more innocent people!

Hows that for closed mindedness but it is a proven fact that those buildings are dangerous and should be avoided like the plague!

The historic places trust people don't agree with me of course!

So many people so many opinions. Viva la difference!

avgas

2nd March 2011, 11:49

mashman

2nd March 2011, 12:38

The thing I don't like about Ken's stuff is simple.

I remember WAAAY back in engineering lectures that we were forced to calculate an infantisimle (fuck knows how to spell it, or say it - I drunk alot in uni basically "really small") charge and infinite distance away, and calculate the force felt from it.

Yet this guy cant calculate the force of the moon's affect on earth accurate to 1 day? Or even 1 week.

I mean we all know the moon will be at the lowest then.......the fricken chinese have celebrated this occasion for a few thousand years.
Its up there for 3 weeks. For all to see. Yet his calculations can say on a specific day something is going to happen.

I would not announce myself the lord of a particular field if I had that kind of inaccuracy......

Just to devils advocatise... Space and the lab are likely quite different. It's not just the moons affect on earth that needs to be taken into consideration. Do you not have variances/tolerances in your calculations? Does a man made object properlled into space always go where NASA expect it to?

Meteorologists have the same problems predicting the weather 1 day or a week ahead at times...

Not just his calculations :). The indian engineer in scissors link has posted some of his predictions and also gives the reasons for not being able to pinpoint the exact location for where an earthwuale will strike.

Do you get the exact mileage out of your car that the book says? Have climatologists changed any data recently? Is the plastic Jesus "cult" just another fad? How do the government go over budget when they know exactly how much something is going to cost? After all, they are all experts in their own fields :)

imdying

2nd March 2011, 13:46

Anyhoo, our modern day science is millenia behind what older civilisations knew :facepalm:Yup, I hear those Egyptians were splitting atoms all over the show :facepalm:

Other Things Ken Ring can't predict (http://otkrcp.tumblr.com/).

The guy is a flake... I wouldn't even lift off teh gas slightly if I found him in front of my car. Not even a millimetre.

And yes, NASA know where there shit is going just fine.

steve_t

2nd March 2011, 14:03

Yup, I hear those Egyptians were splitting atoms all over the show :facepalm:

I'm sure I saw something on TV where Egyptian technology was allowing MacGyver to travel through wormholes to other dimensions :innocent:
Do we know how they built the pyramids yet?

imdying

2nd March 2011, 14:09

We sure do:

<img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_akLHpeO7qyA/TI0BUE1D2nI/AAAAAAAACgg/FaQeYiFX63w/s1600/slavery-demotivational-poster-1211005746.jpg" />

Usarka

2nd March 2011, 14:13

oneofsix

2nd March 2011, 14:17

We sure do:

<img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_akLHpeO7qyA/TI0BUE1D2nI/AAAAAAAACgg/FaQeYiFX63w/s1600/slavery-demotivational-poster-1211005746.jpg" />

They've even worked out how the slaves did it. They used amasing things like ramps :gob:

steve_t

2nd March 2011, 14:26

They've even worked out how the slaves did it. They used amasing things like ramps :gob:

Damn it. I was hoping it was aliens

mashman

2nd March 2011, 14:46

You mean that stuff that makes up 0.04% of the Earth's mass? Gonna take a much much bigger pull than that to move the crust. You keep crapping on about it, but the fact is, it's mass is 5/8s of fuck all compared to the tectonic plates.

I'm not saying it's not plate movement either. I don't keep crapping on about anything, well apart from the money thing :)...

And yet the with a mass of only 0.0123 than that of the mass of earth, and being 378,000k's away, the moon still causes a greater shift of mass on earth, than it's own mass. Yet it has fuck all to do with fuck all? Do the plates move by themselves?

Yup, I hear those Egyptians were splitting atoms all over the show

Other Things Ken Ring can't predict.

The guy is a flake... I wouldn't even lift off teh gas slightly if I found him in front of my car. Not even a millimetre.

And yes, NASA know where there shit is going just fine.

Fuckin hell, where did you read that?

Yawn.

Maybe he is. Doesn't mean the theory is though.

Really? Yet "probes" have retro's (or whataver you call them) and onboard navigation systems to correct any misalignments in trajectory... hmmmmm...

scissorhands

2nd March 2011, 15:10

A dolphin using his sonar, can detect whether a 10inch ball of steel has a 2 inch hollow core, or solid to the center. Easily too, a fairly recent pregnant woman can be detected.

I detect some stale pooh that needs to be excreted

merv

2nd March 2011, 19:23

steve_t

2nd March 2011, 19:29

Oakie

2nd March 2011, 19:30

Science has accepted that gravity can cause geological activity.

Jupiters moon Io is riddled with volcanoes and earthquakes due to it's proximity to Jupiter and the gravitational stresses it is under.

http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/profile.cfm?Object=Io

The difference is that the Earth is somewhat larger than the moon while in the Jovian suituation Jupiter is somewhat fucking immenser than tiny little Io.

merv

2nd March 2011, 19:31

Have a read of the link in my post which is #4 of this thread. Scientists aren't dismissing it because it's new or different, they are dismissing it because the evidence doesn't support the theory

What about once there is more evidence collected?

steve_t

2nd March 2011, 19:42

What about once there is more evidence collected?

If new evidence, collected in an objective way, shows that there is a positive correlation between the moon's position and earthquakes, current theories will be reviewed/debunked. Evidence is constantly being collected and analysed. Any patterns will be recognised. It's those scientists' job to do so. Other people having theories won't be automatically dismissed but investigated thoroughly

mashman

2nd March 2011, 20:31

steve_t

2nd March 2011, 20:41

you mean like the global warming over the next 20 years theory? Just because they thought it would happen, or the evidence suggested that it would happen?

I don't see how this "new theory" is any different, but for some reason I don't see this guy getting access to the data he needs, let alone the funding to study it "scientifically".

Science is happy with anomaly variances :yes: why is this science seen as such a crock?

Is the globe not actually warming? I'm not up with the play. I thought the planet was warming but the bullshit was that humans were causing it. What's the latest?

Ken Ring's theory definitely deserves/deserved further research and data analysis. The theory is definitely plausible but unfortunately the data does not support the theory at this point in time. As much as I hated how John Campbell treated Mr Ring, I can't dispute suggestions that statements such as "an earthquake is likely to occur up to a week either side or a new moon or a week either side of a full moon" are so general that they cover every day of the month. Until there is further data to support the theory of the moon's influence on earthquakes, it will remain "busted"

oldrider

3rd March 2011, 08:54

shrub

3rd March 2011, 09:30

The Earth's crust is thin compared to its diameter and the moon certainly makes the tides happen and even that water moving around and shifting its weight plus the gravitational pull of the moon is bound to have some sort of influence on the pressures at the fault lines of the Earth. Remembering the crust is floating on liquid of course. The fact the plates of the crust move like they do like the skin on porridge it makes perfect sense to me that there may be some validity in Ken's theories that they can be influenced by these other forces.

Science only came from people many generations ago thinking stuff, then passing it on as teaching and then saying it is science and that they are the experts in it and their pupils gain a qualification in it. Current scientists should not dismiss anything new or different as not legitimate just because they don't agree with it yet. e.g. flat Earth.

One of the characteristics of a scientist - or for that matter, any scholar, is an insatiable curiosity.

Once you get beyond undergraduate level at universities you will find that the teachers are continuously needling their students to discover new shit and answer unanswered questions. Before you even publish an article you conduct a literature review which means you read damn near everything there is on a subject to find gaps in the knowledge. For my masters, the lit review will end up taking several months of almost solid reading and I have already read nearly 100 papers and articles ranging from 5 pages to 50 pages and I am not even half way through. I have also emailed as many of the key people who work in my area around the world as possible to find out what they're doing and what I'm planning to do so we don't end up covering the same ground and am planning a trip to Wellington in a few weeks to meet with a group of academics who have done very similar work. And that's only a masters thesis which is pretty much the bottom of the academic pyramid.

On the outside Ken Ring's theories make sense, which guarantees that they will have been explored at considerable length elsewhere by people with much, much more skill and hugely better resources. If there was ANYTHING in them, they would be taken seriously and poor old Ken would get no more attention than if I stood up and said "guess what, the world is round!", but the fact that the experts dismiss them almost guarantees that they are not correct.

Ken gets attention because people are desperate for anything that can help them make sense of the inexplicable in the same way tarot readers are real busy right now.

scissorhands

3rd March 2011, 09:32

If new evidence, collected in an objective way, shows that there is a positive correlation between the moon's position and earthquakes, current theories will be reviewed/debunked. Evidence is constantly being collected and analysed. Any patterns will be recognised. It's those scientists' job to do so. Other people having theories won't be automatically dismissed but investigated thoroughly

What a load of bollocks. Most/all herbal healing modalities are pooh poohed also by science. Plants used for millennia, useful, safe and free to grow....

Its the church, corporations like big pharma, but more than anything knowledge must be kept away from the masses.

Slaves must be kept in chains. People who should know better with closed minds who obey the overlords and part of the problem of dumbing down.

Wanting to sit at the table of their lord, whores of babylon, tools of the state, an inner circle party member.

sieg heil!!

shrub

3rd March 2011, 09:37

Is the globe not actually warming? I'm not up with the play. I thought the planet was warming but the bullshit was that humans were causing it. What's the latest?

The latest is that the globe is warming because of the impact of human activity. More and more evidence is surfacing to support that theory (and yes, it's only a theory, just like gravity). I have yet to see anything to support the argument it isn't caused by human activity and the few arguments that keep surfacing have been so resoundingly debunked it amazes me that they are still given any credence. But then when scientists discovered the world was round and the earth rotated around the sun it took a long time to convince the religious leaders otherwise. I'm just glad that heresy is no longer a hanging offence or the scientific community would be decimated.

shrub

3rd March 2011, 09:39

What a load of bollocks. Most/all herbal healing modalities are pooh poohed also by science. Plants used for millennia, useful, safe and free to grow....!

Actually that's not true. A huge number of medicines are either synthesised compounds that occur naturally in plants or deriviatives of them. They are done that way because you can more accurately measure doses, isolate active ingrediants while avoiding harmful ingredients, and most importantly make money. Lots and lots of money.

And many medicines come from plants - opiates are a good example.

oneofsix

3rd March 2011, 09:46

One of the characteristics of a scientist - or for that matter, any scholar, is an insatiable curiosity.
<snip>
On the outside Ken Ring's theories make sense, which guarantees that they will have been explored at considerable length elsewhere by people with much, much more skill and hugely better resources.
<snip>
.
enjoyed your post and generally agree however there are couple of comments. The topmost quote whilst very true don't allow for them sometimes getting stuck on a path, not seeing the forest for the trees. A bad example would be the shape of the earth, still working on the theory of a flat earth even though centuries before another old scholar had proven it to be round using shadows.
Once a theory has been dismissed on the evidence available to date it is often not reassessed until all other more 'reasonable' theories have been exhausted even thought the knowledge around it has been improved.
I should have retained your quote on tarot readers because it so well sums up the other side of the argue. He could be a dreamer, but ...
I had heard the Chinese tried a similar idea centuries age but then again they get blamed for a lot.

shrub

3rd March 2011, 09:57

enjoyed your post and generally agree however there are couple of comments. The topmost quote whilst very true don't allow for them sometimes getting stuck on a path, not seeing the forest for the trees. A bad example would be the shape of the earth, still working on the theory of a flat earth even though centuries before another old scholar had proven it to be round using shadows.
Once a theory has been dismissed on the evidence available to date it is often not reassessed until all other more 'reasonable' theories have been exhausted even thought the knowledge around it has been improved.
I should have retained your quote on tarot readers because it so well sums up the other side of the argue. He could be a dreamer, but ...
I had heard the Chinese tried a similar idea centuries age but then again they get blamed for a lot.

You're right, but these days it is so much easier to explore new theories. I'm sitting in my study in Christchurch and I have access to databases from around the world and can access a depth of information that would have been inconceivable only a few years ago. And there are hundreds of thousands of bright young (and no so young) people desperate to make their mark and find something new, and that means existing theories are constantly revisited. People are always looking for ideas that have been explored and discounted in the hope of finding an angle that nobody else found, or of adding new knowledge to complete an incomplete study.

I'd love Ken Ring to be right because then life would be easier. Yesterday I was stuck in traffic on an overbridge, and quietly shitting myself because if another biggun hit I could well be in trouble, and I'd like to be able to lock the doors at night instead of leaving them unlocked so we can get out fast. If dear old Ken was right then I'd pack everything up and brace myself for the 20th, then get on with life knowing it was all over.

oneofsix

3rd March 2011, 10:07

You're right, but these days it is so much easier to explore new theories. I'm sitting in my study in Christchurch and I have access to databases from around the world and can access a depth of information that would have been inconceivable only a few years ago. And there are hundreds of thousands of bright young (and no so young) people desperate to make their mark and find something new, and that means existing theories are constantly revisited. People are always looking for ideas that have been explored and discounted in the hope of finding an angle that nobody else found, or of adding new knowledge to complete an incomplete study.

I'd love Ken Ring to be right because then life would be easier. Yesterday I was stuck in traffic on an overbridge, and quietly shitting myself because if another biggun hit I could well be in trouble, and I'd like to be able to lock the doors at night instead of leaving them unlocked so we can get out fast. If dear old Ken was right then I'd pack everything up and brace myself for the 20th, then get on with life knowing it was all over.

Working in Welly and living in Parm I'm praying he's wrong about the 20th. :eek:
Struck a chord with the comment on bridge, 4 of us were having coffee discussing the building structure, the quickest way to something we trusted and that it had to be within 2 metres, also on the walk back we were reviewing quake safety of were we were with some of the Welly buildings designed to drop there outer cladding in a quake. Also funny the other night watching the CNN front person presume people were safer outside in the city rather than in their homes in the suburbs.

steve_t

3rd March 2011, 10:09

What a load of bollocks. Most/all herbal healing modalities are pooh poohed also by science. Plants used for millennia, useful, safe and free to grow....

Actually that's not true. A huge number of medicines are either synthesised compounds that occur naturally in plants or deriviatives of them. They are done that way because you can more accurately measure doses, isolate active ingrediants while avoiding harmful ingredients, and most importantly make money. Lots and lots of money.

And many medicines come from plants - opiates are a good example.

Exactly. For centuries the bark of the white willow tree has been used for medicinal purposes. Scientists analysed the bark and, what do you know, the bark contains salicylic acid - the same stuff that makes up Aspirin. Pain relief, blood thinning etc are wonderful properties of the stuff. So yes, there are scientific explanations for many plant extracts.
What I can't agree with is homeopathy where supposedly you can take 1kg of leaves of a plant, soak them in water thereby imparting the energy from the leaves to the water, mix that water with 100 litres of other water which 'teaches' the other water how to have the energised water's properties and then sell vials of that water for $$.
What makes it worse is the president of the Homeopathy Association of America claiming that a double blind, randomised controlled trial is not a valid way to test the effects of drugs/homeopathic remedies :facepalm: Anyone who has basic science training knows that it's the only truly impartial way to test something

shrub

3rd March 2011, 10:26

Exactly. For centuries the bark of the white willow tree has been used for medicinal purposes. Scientists analysed the bark and, what do you know, the bark contains salicylic acid - the same stuff that makes up Aspirin. Pain relief, blood thinning etc are wonderful properties of the stuff. So yes, there are scientific explanations for many plant extracts.
What I can't agree with is homeopathy where supposedly you can take 1kg of leaves of a plant, soak them in water thereby imparting the energy from the leaves to the water, mix that water with 100 litres of other water which 'teaches' the other water how to have the energised water's properties and then sell vials of that water for $$.
What makes it worse is the president of the Homeopathy Association of America claiming that a double blind, randomised controlled trial is not a valid way to test the effects of drugs/homeopathic remedies :facepalm: Anyone who has basic science training knows that it's the only truly impartial way to test something

Yes, homeopathy kind of beggars belief. I wish it worked on my bank - if I deposit miniscule amounts of money I have the spending power of a brazillianaire.

shrub

3rd March 2011, 10:30

Working in Welly and living in Parm I'm praying he's wrong about the 20th. :eek:

Praying will be enough to make him wrong - God outranks Ken Ring in the cosmic order, so Ken predicts an earthquake and then God gets a polite request to cancel the quake, and that's it for Ken.

oneofsix

3rd March 2011, 10:54

Praying will be enough to make him wrong - God outranks Ken Ring in the cosmic order, so Ken predicts an earthquake and then God gets a polite request to cancel the quake, and that's it for Ken.

You presume I am only praying to one god :yes: Who was the Maori god for earthquake? the shame is I'm more likely to know the Roman or Greek gods for earthquakes but I don't know them either.:facepalm:

rickstv

3rd March 2011, 11:03

The difference is that the Earth is somewhat larger than the moon while in the Jovian suituation Jupiter is somewhat fucking immenser than tiny little Io.

Io has a fairly true orbit around Jupiter, so jupiter doesn't have much effect on the
Io's core, BUT every two years, two of jupiter's other moons line up and give Io a gravitational kick. this is enough to melt Io's core over millions of years.

In Earth's case, the annual wobble and the influence of the moon has caused our core to become molten too. If the moon has this much effect on the core and tides, then I think it quite believable that the Moon may have influence on earthquakes in some cases too.
Rick

RiderInBlack

3rd March 2011, 11:19

What a load of bollocks. Most/all herbal healing modalities are pooh poohed also by science. Plants used for millennia, useful, safe and free to grow.Any Knowledgeable Herbalist will tell you that, like any medicine, herbs must be take in the right amount, in the right way, at the right time. To ASSUME all herbs are SAFE because they are natural is a good way to get yourself killed. Bit of Belladonna Tea anyone, it's Natural, How about some Death Cap Mushroom, Deadly Nightshade then? Fox-glove has Digitalis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digitalis)from which we get the drug digoxin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digoxin) from. In the right doses for the right patient, it's a life saver, but a killer if you get the wrong dose. I wouldn't go chewing on Fox-glove to replace Digoxin without know exactly how much was need. Tutu is another one, treat it properly and you get a strong healing Poultice. Do it wrong and you will get very sick.
So in short Herbal Treatment is NOT SAFE unless you know what you are doing. No different to any other Medicine in that fact.

shrub

3rd March 2011, 11:30

You presume I am only praying to one god :yes: Who was the Maori god for earthquake? the shame is I'm more likely to know the Roman or Greek gods for earthquakes but I don't know them either.:facepalm:

I was more thinking Eric Clapton.

mashman

3rd March 2011, 12:00

Is the globe not actually warming? I'm not up with the play. I thought the planet was warming but the bullshit was that humans were causing it. What's the latest?

Ken Ring's theory definitely deserves/deserved further research and data analysis. The theory is definitely plausible but unfortunately the data does not support the theory at this point in time. As much as I hated how John Campbell treated Mr Ring, I can't dispute suggestions that statements such as "an earthquake is likely to occur up to a week either side or a new moon or a week either side of a full moon" are so general that they cover every day of the month. Until there is further data to support the theory of the moon's influence on earthquakes, it will remain "busted"

Heh, i gave up caring, depending on what you read and where you read it you get different answers. Either way, the manipulation of the data, coz the scientists said it needed to be adjusted :facepalm:, doesn't give me any faith that either of the readings, for and against, are accurate... which is kinda funny considering it's a multi decade old science.

It depends on what questions the scientific community want answered I suppose. If you want an accurate reading, down to the day and region, then you're probably SOOL... but you could say the same of weather prediction, tornado prediction more so (yet shiloads of cash goes into it) and AGW (meh, pointless waste of money given the external influences that are being ignored) etc... I take your point, "busted" wise, but I would have thought there was enough to the theory that it warrants a serious looking into... but if scientists have already debunked the "theory" getting the answers to the questions they've already asked, they're highly unlikely to revisit the science... which is a crime... Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens on the 20th... I hope he's right, at least we'd have at least 1 reference point to kick the science off again, but I hope the quake happens somewhere benign...

To all: btw, the earth isn't round, it's a spheroid :killingme

oneofsix

3rd March 2011, 12:08

I was more thinking Eric Clapton.

:doh:contemporary gods :yes: you are so right :niceone:

avgas

3rd March 2011, 12:54

Just to devils advocatise... Space and the lab are likely quite different. It's not just the moons affect on earth that needs to be taken into consideration. Do you not have variances/tolerances in your calculations? Does a man made object properlled into space always go where NASA expect it to?

Meteorologists have the same problems predicting the weather 1 day or a week ahead at times...

Not just his calculations :). The indian engineer in scissors link has posted some of his predictions and also gives the reasons for not being able to pinpoint the exact location for where an earthwuale will strike.

Do you get the exact mileage out of your car that the book says? Have climatologists changed any data recently? Is the plastic Jesus "cult" just another fad? How do the government go over budget when they know exactly how much something is going to cost? After all, they are all experts in their own fields :)
Don't get me wrong. I am not critically reflecting on the science. More the person.

He comes across to what we in the engineering industry call "Bandaid solution bandit".
All cable ties, race tape and she'll be right attitude.
Walk up to him with a broken arm and he will try give you a bandaid.

In fact he reminds me of chicken little. Running around saying "the sky is falling the sky is falling"

Real doomsday scientists come forward and say
"The sky is falling on 21st December on 2012, as this is the day that I have calculated all the planets align and the gravity is strong enough to suck us into the sun - should all be over and done with by 3:15pm"

scissorhands

3rd March 2011, 12:57

Any Knowledgeable Herbalist will tell you that, like any medicine, herbs must be take in the right amount, in the right way, at the right time. To ASSUME all herbs are SAFE because they are natural is a good way to get yourself killed. Bit of Belladonna Tea anyone, it's Natural, How about some Death Cap Mushroom, Deadly Nightshade then? Fox-glove has Digitalis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digitalis)from which we get the drug digoxin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digoxin) from. In the right doses for the right patient, it's a life saver, but a killer if you get the wrong dose. I wouldn't go chewing on Fox-glove to replace Digoxin without know exactly how much was need. Tutu is another one, treat it properly and you get a strong healing Poultice. Do it wrong and you will get very sick.
So in short Herbal Treatment is NOT SAFE unless you know what you are doing. No different to any other Medicine in that fact.

from http://www.solicitoradvice.com/medicalerrorstats.htm

Medical Error Statistics- In the NEWS

20.12.10

Federal: New report from FRACS- 5,777 Australians died during or after surgery last year

Audit committee chairman Professor Guy Maddern, who examined the deaths for the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS), says that a lack of hospital facilities is a problem that needs to be addressed. Of the deaths that attracted closer scrutiny, the auditors made significant criticisms of how 1 in 10 of those patients was managed. They found that case management contributed to 4 per cent of those deaths.

Source: abc.net.au 20.12.10.

28.01.10

NSW: Public Hospitals in NSW have the worst figures for medical error in the country

New Productivity Commission figures on ''sentinel events'' - severely harmful incidents that occur due to a failure of hospital systems - showed 59 cases in NSW, compared with 28 in Victoria, the next worst-performing state, and 147 nationwide.

Even accounting for NSW having the largest population and the largest number of hospital admissions, the figures still show the state performing worse than the rest of the country.

The figures, from 2007-08, represent a significant deterioration from a year earlier, when NSW was one of the best states, recording only 32 events.

The data showed:

* 18 NSW procedures involving the wrong patient or body part (29 total, nationally);
* 19 NSW cases of medical instruments being left in patients after surgery (37 total nationally);
* medication errors in NSW killing 17 patients (29 total nationally).

Professor Rick Iedema, of the University of Technology, Sydney, said the sharp increase was likely to be a result of both more incidents and more rigorous reporting.

Shadow health minister Jillian Skinner accused the government of under-investment in technology that could help reduce sentinel events.

She said barcode technology used elsewhere in the world to prevent medical instruments being left inside people should be used in NSW.

Source: SMH online 28.01.10; 29.01.10.

30.10.08

Federal: Hospital Errors on the increase according to new study

Hospital mix-ups over patient identity and body parts more than doubled in one year to 159 in public hospitals, the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care has found. Mix-ups in private hospitals were also on the increase.

Source: SMH 30.10.08; The Australian 30.10.08.

Federal: One in Ten Australians are harmed by hospital treatment

Source: The Australian 28.10.08.

10.09.08

FEDERAL: New report says 1500 people die each year in Australian public hospitals because of overcrowding

A UNSW report for the Australasian College of Emergency Medicine also states that Perth’s big hospital emergency departments were the worst in the country for overcrowding.

Source: "Dying risk up 30% in crowded hospitals," The West, 10.09.08.

28.06.08

QLD: Blood Transfusion Errors

The Patient Safety Symposium at the Brisbane Convention Centre was also told that 117 "adverse blood events" were found after an analysis of Queensland Health's reporting incident system since December 2006. Patients given the wrong blood type can suffer severe allergic reactions, respiratory distress, excessive bleeding, kidney failure and death. Queensland Pathology transfusion expert Tony Ghent has developed a barcoded armband to alleviate confusion. The armband will be trialled at Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital and the Gold Coast Hospital in the next few weeks. Source: news.com.au 22.06.08.

28.05.08

Report finds 10% of patients in Victorian Hospitals experienced a medical mishap/error.

A Victorian Auditor General's report has estimated that medical mistakes are made on ten percent of people admitted to the state's public hospitals. The report found 135,000 public hospital patients were subjected to medical errors in the last financial year. Source: abc.net.au.

27.12.07

S.A: Complaints against Doctors soar
The number of complaints against doctors in the public and private systems rose from 152 last year to 175. The complaints are listed in the Medical Board of South Australia's annual report. The figures follow a report in The Advertiser last Friday showing more than 2200 medication errors had been recorded at the state's major hospitals in the past year. Source: The Advertiser 27.12.07.

20.12.07

VIC: AVOIDABLE hospital catastrophes killed 38 Victorians in the past year. REVEALED BY DHS SENTINEL EVENT PROGRAM, ANNUAL REPORT 2006-07

The deaths are a third higher than a year ago, and the highest recorded since the State Government set up the Sentinel Events Program five years ago. Non-fatal cases included: A patient who had a swab sewn into his chest during heart surgery and had to undergo an operation to remove the gauze. A crash victim given the wrong blood during resuscitation. The blood was meant for a patient in an adjoining bed. Twenty other errors involving surgery on the wrong patient or body part were reported. Instruments or other materials were left in eight patients. Three patients died from medication mix-ups. Key causes were flawed procedures (32 per cent), poor communications (18 per cent), human error (15 per cent) and poor health information (12 per cent).

Source: news.com.au 21.12.07; The Age 21.12.07.

NSW: Royal North Shore Hospital

A REPORT released yesterday reveals more than 500 mistakes at the Royal North Shore Hospital have lead to either serious injury or death to patients. Source: news.com.au 20.12.07.

06.10.07

QUEENSLAND: 38 more patient deaths

QLD: a health watchdog is investigating the deaths of 38 patients believed to have died from negligence or catastrophic failures in the medical system. Medical staff are facing criminal prosecutions over two of the deaths. The deaths were among 5067 complaints fielded by the independent Health Quality and Complaints Commission in its first year. Source: news.com.au 06.10.07.

10.07.07

Report shows Australian public hospital bungles are killing scores of people

According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in 2004-05:

- 53 operations were performed on the wrong part of the body.

- 27 patients who had operations, had instruments, sponges etc left inside their bodies.

- 7 patients died from being given the wrong medication.

- Missing medical records or ambiguous or illegible documentation about a patient led to 35 of the errors and 32 were caused in part because of poor communication between staff or between staff and patients.

- The institute said staff factors including inadequate training contributed to 23 of the errors, and 54 occurred in part because of problems with or breakdowns in rules, policies and procedures.

- 5 mothers died due to avoidable errors during childbirth

- Australian hospital patients needlessly died or were put at serious risk at least 130 times.

The report covers the 759 public hospitals operating in Australia. It covers REPORTED hospital errors in public hospitals only. So if we take into account the number of unreported errors and negligence in the entire healthcare system including private practice, the statistics are in fact much higher. To read more click here...

Patient safety expert Stephen Bolsin said little had improved in the past decade.

"Safety breaches in Australian healthcare are killing more people than breast cancer or road accidents," Associate Professor Bolsin said. (Source: SMH 11.07.07)

Medicos defend record on patient mistakes
Melbourne Herald Sun, Australia -
By Jane Bunce DOCTORS and public hospital managers today defended their record after a new report found 130 serious mistakes occurred in Australia's public ...

Report shows 130 needless patient deaths
Sydney Morning Herald, Australia - 10 Jul 2007
Australian hospital patients needlessly died or were put at serious risk at least 130 times between 2004 and 2005, a new report shows. ...

Patients 'left with surgical equipment in bodies'
ABC Online, Australia - 10 Jul 2007
The first national report into hospital errors has found there were 130 serious mistakes made in Australian public hospitals in 2004 to 2005. ...

Blunders on hospitals' shame file
The Age, Australia - 10 Jul 2007
PATIENTS who found doctors had operated on the wrong limb or who had equipment left inside them are among 130 cases of serious medical mistakes covered in a ...

Hospital bungles are killing scores
The Australian, Australia - 10 Jul 2007
AUSTRALIA'S first national report into serious mistakes in public hospitals has found at least 130 avoidable instances in which patients died or were put at ...

Hospitals reveal mix-ups in surgery
Sydney Morning Herald, Australia - 10 Jul 2007
THE classic hospital horror case - surgery on the wrong patient or body part - also turns out to be the most common significant medical mistake in Australia ...

21.04.07

Public Hospitals are at their Worse. What is being done to fix the system?

In NSW up to 130,000 patients are being harmed or experience near misses each year. There are an estimated 8000 deaths in Australia each year as a result of medical errors, more than the annual road toll of about 1600.

SMH 20.04.07- Condition critical: the poor state of the NSW health system - National

26.01.07

MEDICATION errors at Royal Melbourne Hospital have doubled in the past four years.

Melbourne Health, which runs the hospital, recorded 1217 medication errors in 2005-06 compared with just 503 in 2002-03.

Medication errors affected 1.2 per cent of the total number of patients treated at the hospital in 2005-06, compared with 0.6 per cent in 2002-03.

Melbourne Health also received its highest number of complaints in 2005-06, with 815 -- up from 603 in 2004-05.

(Herald Sun, 26 January 2007) ; [Melbourne Health Quality of Care Report 2005-06]

21.12.06

Harmed in NSW hospitals: 500 errors a record

ALMOST 500 medical errors in NSW public hospitals either seriously harmed patients or could have done so in 2005-06 - the highest number in the three years the statistics have been collected.

A report by the Clinical Excellence Commission found policies and procedures were to blame for a quarter of the errors and near misses. These included inadequate training requirements for some staff. Another quarter were attributable to communication problems, particularly when patient care was handed over to a different medical team or between shifts.

Incompetence or outdated skills were behind almost 100 cases, and inadequate ratios of medical staff to patients, or rostering of junior doctors into senior roles, was at the heart of about 70 of the problems. Equipment failure was much less common.

Serious incidents in NSW:

- Delayed or wrong treatment or diagnosis: 178

- Suicide outside hospital: 137

- Birth problems: 37

- Wrong operation: 36

- Falls: 30

For further info:

Sydney Morning Herald 21.12.06

Clinical Excellence Commission

18.10.06

Call to probe all maternal deaths
Coroners should investigate every death of a woman during pregnancy or childbirth, says a medical adviser Associate Professor James King, to the State Government.

A report by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shows there were 95 maternal deaths between 2000 and 2002, a rate of 11.1 women in every 100,000 who gave birth. This was up from 8.4 per 100,000 women in the previous three years.

The report said that of the 95 maternal deaths, 84 were related directly or indirectly to the pregnancy's management.

(The Age 18 October 2006) [AIHW: Maternal deaths in Australia 2000-2002]

05.10.06

Medical Errors in Victoria: 29 deaths connected to medical errors

A patient given the wrong dose of a sedative was among 29 people who died because of errors in hospitals that were reported to authorities last financial year.

The nurse administering the drug was unfamiliar with it and was not being supervised, according to State Government documents. When the medication error was identified, there was a delay in contacting medical staff.

The 29 deaths are among 91 serious medical errors that Victorian hospitals reported in 2005-06. The incidents are referred to as "sentinel events" and are defined as relatively infrequent, clear-cut events that reflect deficiencies in hospitals. There were 25 cases reported in which a procedure involved the wrong patient or body part, and six cases of instruments or other material being left inside patients, requiring more surgery to remove them. Medication errors led to the deaths of two patients. Seven medication errors did not result in deaths.

But the 91 incidents are believed to be a fraction of the serious errors in hospitals, many of which go unreported. While the number is lower than the 122 incidents, including 34 deaths, that hospitals reported in the previous year, authorities say that does not necessarily mean the true number of errors has gone down.

(The Age, 5 October 2006)

29.09.06

Patient deaths report transparency urged

The Health Consumers Council of Western Australia has called for greater transparency in the reporting of patient deaths and permanent injuries caused by hospital errors.

A Health Department report released yesterday shows 42 hospital patients died or were left with permanent disabilities in the past financial year as a result of clinical errors.

(ABC News, 29 September 2006)
[The Second WA Sentinel Event Report 2005-2006 [pdf 759kb]]

30.08.06

BAD MEDICINE

Another week, another appalling medical misadventure ... Why the hospital system is in crisis and what must be done to protect us. Julie-Anne Davies reports. (Bulletin, 30 August 2006)- excellent article. Excerpts from this article-

Just last week, it was revealed that up to six people in northern NSW may have died because a pathologist misdiagnosed their tests, and another 38 received the wrong treatment for a range of diseases, including cancer. Incredibly, Hunter New England Health waited eight months before investigating Dr Farid Zaer, who had already been sacked by another area health service. Only days earlier we learnt that Sydney doctor Suman Sood, who was convicted of two counts of unlawfully giving abortion drugs to a young woman, had a history of complaints, investigations and legal action against her. In the wake of the disaster – and as many as 87 patient deaths – that marked Dr Jayant Patel’s two-year career at Queensland’s Bundaberg Hospital, are we any closer to properly policing incompetent or downright dangerous doctors?

Shirley Byrne should not have died. In medical terms, the 74-year-old Manly grandmother’s bowel cancer was unremarkable, and the surgery to cure it routine. But by the time she was wheeled into the recovery room at Ryde Hospital, in Sydney’s north-west, around 5.30pm on February 4, 2000, she wasn’t breathing and nurses could detect no pulse. Her heart had stopped beating.

For more than half an hour her anaesthetist, Gerrit Reimers, refused pleas from nurses to begin resuscitation. By the time another doctor arrived and took over, it was too late. She suffered severe and irreversible brain damage and died three days later. As a Medical Tribunal later found, Reimers’ actions had “at least” contributed to her death, describing them as a “gross departure from appropriate standards of conduct”.

As part of a broader investigation prompted by Byrne’s death, Reimers was found guilty of 13 counts of professional misconduct, which included stealing and self-administering the powerful opioids pethidine and fentanyl, and treating patients while under their influence. The complaints, brought by the NSW Health Care Complaints Commission, spanned from 1996 to 2000 (when he was suspended from practice) and involved nine patients at a number of Sydney hospitals.

Valmai Kilmartin, a 69-year-old woman who died at a Melbourne hospital three years ago, after a nurse accidentally injected her with lethal potassium chloride instead of saline. The drug vials looked almost identical. The tragedy had happened before, with at least two other deaths in similar circumstances in Victoria alone since 1992. In 1995 Johnstone recommended that changes to packaging be introduced. It was ignored. Finally, following Kilmartin’s death, the drug manufacturers redesigned the ampoules. Too late for Roy Kilmartin, though. In a humbling submission to his wife’s inquest, he summed up in a few words what Johnstone says he has spent his working life attempting to articulate.

29.08.06

Medical errors 'killing thousands'

The number of deadly errors occurring in Australian hospitals has probably not changed in the past decade, despite reforms and millions of dollars being thrown at the problem, an expert says.

Report author, Dr Ross Wilson says that ten years later, in all likelihood, the figures are the same.

(SMH/AAP, 29 August 2006)

26.08.06

System error reports ring early alarm bells

Crunching the numbers on what goes wrong in hospitals is giving safety experts a useful means of making medicine safer. Excerpt from article by Adam Cresswell, The Australian.

The Clinical Excellence Commission was launched in August 2004 and began encouraging doctors, nurses and other health care workers throughout the state's health system to notify any adverse events. These are broadly defined as any negative events - not merely those that harm patients, but also those that have the potential to cause harm but are detected in time. Even reports of lost property and complaints about staff rudeness are included in the count.

Because the Incident Information Management System (IIMS) started getting going mid-way through the 2004-05 year, the full-year figures did not reflect the true experience. The year just ended, 2005-06, was the first 12-month period for which full data was available (although, as the notification to the system is voluntary, the true level of incidents is almost certainly higher).

An analysis of that first full year's data showed there were at least 125,000 notifications of adverse events, about 70 per cent of which (88,000) were clinical - in other words, excluding the category that includes lost property and administrative matters.

About 18,750 incidents resulted in some level of harm to patients. The biggest category of incidents was falls, representing 26 per cent of all notifications - 32,500 incidents. Twenty per cent occurred in a geriatric unit, and 18 per cent and 14 per cent in a general medicine unit and rehabilitation or stroke unit respectively. Over half (65 per cent) of the patients were aged 70 to 95, and 70 per cent either tripped, slipped or lost their balance.

The next biggest was medication errors. In many cases, as with all the categories of adverse events, the error was at the less serious end of the spectrum. An example would be where a patient was given a painkilling drug a few hours later than scheduled, which might leave the patient with inadequate pain relief for a period but would not cause any long-term damage.

Potentially more serious examples include the patient being given the wrong dose, or being prescribed the wrong drug altogether.

Medication errors accounted for 18 per cent of notifications, or 22,500 incidents. Powerful painkilling drugs such as morphine and oxycodone were most commonly involved in adverse incidents, followed by the heroin substitute methadone, insulin, the blood-thinning agent warfarin and the common painkiller paracetamol.

However, serious adverse events - those resulting in serious harm or death - are relatively rare. Hughes says there were about 500 a year, although the precise figure from the latest data is still being extracted.

Earlier attempts to identify specific numbers of serious events were able to quantify how often the most serious types of mistakes or accidents occurred.

There were 13 procedures involving the incorrect patient or body part in 2003/04, and 14 the following year. This might involve a patient having an operation of the wrong part of their body, for example on the left side instead of the right or vice-versa; but it also might be a patient being taken for an X-ray that was intended for another patient, or the scan being taken of the wrong place.

Another category, "retained instruments or other material after surgery", shows how the figures are being used to find problems and fix them.

It refers to scenarios where equipment such as scissors or swabs are accidentally sewn up inside a patient after an operation. There were nine such instances of this in NSW in 2003-04, and five in 2004-05.

23.08.06

The response of doctors to a formal complaint
Louise Nash, Bradley Curtis, Merrilyn Walton, Simon Willcock, Christopher Tennant
Australasian Psychiatry 2006 14:3 246 [Abstract]

21.08.06

18,000 patients in NSW harmed by hospital mistakes

Source: Adam Creswell- The Australian

THOUSANDS of patients a year are being harmed by often avoidable mistakes such as being given the wrong drugs, incorrect treatment or falling down while in the care of public hospitals or other parts of the health system.

An analysis, to be released today, of the first full 12 months of data from a NSW program designed to encourage reporting of so-called "adverse events" has found there were 125,000 notifications in the year to July 2006, of which 18,750 resulted in some level of injury or harm to patients.

NSW accounts for about one-third of the healthcare episodes across Australia, so on a national basis the figures could be expected to be three times higher.

NSW accounts for about one-third of the healthcare episodes across Australia, so on a national basis the figures could be expected to be three times higher.

But because reporting events to the system is voluntary, the true level of mistakes and problems in the public hospital system is likely to be higher still.

Falls represented the biggest category of adverse events, accounting for 26 per cent of all notifications or 32,500 incidents. Medication errors -- patients given the wrong drug or the wrong dose -- came next, accounting for 18 per cent of notifications or 22,500 incidents.

Incorrect clinical management -- in cases where the patients' conditions may have been misdiagnosed, diagnosis was delayed, or the wrong treatment given -- accounted for 13 per cent of notifications, or 16,250 incidents.

The figures were compiled by the NSW Clinical Excellence Commission, whose CEO Cliff Hughes will present some of the findings at today's Australasian Conference on Safety and Quality in Health Care in Melbourne.

Professor Hughes told The Australian that all but about 400 to 500 incidents a year resulted in minor or no harm to the patients. About 37,000 of the 125,000 notifications were of a non-clinical nature, such as lost or stolen property, or complaints over how a patient was spoken to.

However, he conceded many incidents could be prevented by better hospital procedures, and said the data was being used to change the times at which some common yet potentially dangerous drugs were given.

An example was the blood-thinning drug warfarin, which is commonly used to reduce the risk of strokes and heart attacks or for patients with irregular heart rhythm. Too large a dose could cause haemorrhage, while too small a dose meant the drug would not work, Professor Hughes said.

For historical reasons, such as the fact the results of blood tests ordered in the mornings would only be available in the evening, warfarin was usually given to patients at about 8pm to 9pm. But the figures showed a three-fold spike in adverse drug events at about that time.

NSW was changing procedures to have the drug administered at about 4pm, when more staff would be on duty to monitor effectiveness and handle adverse consequences, he said.

"That's a pretty good example of how this data can be used to drill down and look at the trends, and make changes in healthcare to make it safer for patients."

Professor Hughes said analysing the figures showed inadequate knowledge or skills on the part of doctors or nurses was linked to about 56 of the 500 or so serious adverse events. Over three times more (170) were due to communication issues -- for example, when key details about the patient's condition were not transferred to another ward or hospital department.

"Any adverse event is the end-point of some deficiency in the system," Professor Hughes said.

Source: Adam Cresswell, The Australian online.

18.08.06

'Culture of Medicine,' Not Fear of Malpractice, Prompts Physicians To Withhold Information About Medical Errors From Patients, Study Says
Physicians often fail to inform patients about medical errors because of the "culture of medicine," rather than because of concerns about malpractice lawsuits, according to a study published on Monday in the Archives of Internal Medicine, the Seattle Times reports.(Daily Health Policy Report, 18 August 2006)

26.07.06

Key to cutting medical errors

IN May, the The Australian reported that "senior doctors claim teaching hours for anatomy have been slashed by 80 per cent in some medical schools to make way for touchy-feely subjects such as cultural sensitivity, communication and ethics". The report stated that the Australian Doctors Fund had lodged a 70-page submission with the federal Department of Education, Science and Training "listing arguments from more than two dozen professors, consultants and medical academics for a rethink on medical education".

Although a reassessment of anatomy and other basic science teaching may well be valuable, it will be regrettable if this leads to a down-grading of education in effective communication for future doctors. Research evidence points less often to a lack of knowledge of anatomy among doctors than to poor management and communication as the causes of medical errors.

McCarthy and Blumenthal refer to research into medical errors that shows failed communication among professionals and low-quality teamwork are prime culprits that must be addressed in changing to what they term a safety culture.

Pre-operative briefing of the entire surgical team ahead of major operations promoted patient safety in experiments done by the Kaiser Permanente healthcare group in the US. Morale improved noticeably among staff and surgical errors and near-misses were reduced.

The published research on reducing medical error is dominated by evidence that nothing works as well as communication about intentions and risks among a therapeutic team led by an individual who understands risk and discusses this with all parties who have a material interest in, and capacity to influence, the outcome for the patient. This extends to the patient and their carer.

Communication skills are vital for the future practice of safe medicine in this country to an extent that may astonish some but which is well-known beyond the halls of medicine in every industry and business that has a concern about safety and quality.

See full article by : Stephen Leeder (Australian, 26 July 2006)

Stephen Leeder is director of the Australian Health Policy Institute at the University of Sydney and co-director of the Menzies Centre for Health Policy.

[Australian DoctorsFund:Submission on Australian Medical Education]

17.07.06

GP Medical Errors

Patients are the victims of mistakes during about one in every 1000 visits to a GP, but the threat to people's safety is probably under-reported, a new study shows.

These are the key findings from a series of studies published today in the Medical Journal of Australia. The issue is devoted to general practice to coincide with Family Doctor Week.

Report co-author Dr Meredith Makeham - of the University of Sydney - said 84 GPs working in NSW took part in the survey.

These medicos submitted 418 error reports, claimed more than 490,864 consultations under Medicare, and had more than 166,500 encounters with patients during a 12-month period.

GPs had reported making one mistake for every 1000 consultation billed under Medicare and two errors for every 1000 patients seen in a 12-month period.

Dr Makeham said the results indicated that a secure website where GPs could anonymously report mistakes was a practical way to collect this information.

"[But] it is very difficult to assess the proportion of errors that would go unreported even when a reporting system such as [this] is available," she said.

"A GP may not be aware that an error has occurred.

"GPs have been found to under-report adverse drug events and so other patient safety threats may also be under-reported."

Source: Danielle Cronin, (Canberra Times, 17 July 2006)

The Threats to Australian Patient Safety (TAPS) study: incidence of reported errors in general practice Meredith A B Makeham, Michael R Kidd, Deborah C Saltman, Michael Mira, Charles Bridges-Webb, Chris Cooper and Simone Stromer — Med J Aust 2006; 185 (2): 95-98. [Full text]

08.07.06

State blamed for 500 patient deaths

A SENIOR doctor has likened Premier Steve Bracks and Treasurer John Brumby to funeral directors for the way they are running the hospital system. Dr Peter Lazzari yesterday said about 500 Victorians died every year because of the system's shortcomings.

"We would calculate that at least half of those deaths are preventable," Dr Lazzari said.

Of the 500 deaths, some occurred while on waiting lists and others were the result of overcrowded hospitals.

"The government spokespeople said that these people would have died anyway," Dr Lazzari told 3AW.

"That flies in the face of what medicine and hospital care are all about.

"We're there to save lives, to improve life, to relieve pain, to relieve suffering.

"I actually relate this loss of life (to) Bracks and Brumby actually functioning like funeral directors."

Dr Lazzari, who represents Victorian hospital medical staff, said the hospital funding system did not take into account pain suffered by waiting patients, the deterioration of health, and deaths.

Source: Ashley Gardiner, Herald Sun online 08.07.06.

29.06.06

Star rating system proposed for hospitals

HOSPITALS should be given star ratings based on factors such as death and infection rates, to improve performance and help patients make better informed choices, a leading health academic says.

Giving the best hospitals a five-star rating would be one option. Another would be a league table ranking the best and worst performing hospitals, according to La Trobe University dean of health sciences, Hal Swerissen.

Hospitals could be rated as above, below or at acceptable standards.

See article by Carol Nader, Health Reporter http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/star-rating-system-proposed-for-hospitals/2006/06/28/1151174268817.html

05.06.06

Hospital mishaps cost $2bn

MEDICAL mishaps and patient complications are costing Victorian hospitals about half a billion dollars each year, with the financial burden nationally estimated to be $2 billion.

A study published in The Medical Journal of Australia that examines the number and cost of "adverse events" in 45 of the state's public hospitals in 2003-04, reveals that such incidents cost the health system $460.31 million.

And it warns that the bill could be higher, if flow-on costs once a patient is discharged, and adverse events in other Victorian hospitals not included in the study, are taken into account.

"Assuming other Victorian hospitals have the same adverse events profile, the cost of adverse events for Victorian weighted inpatient activity would be about $511.457 million per annum," the report said.

"As Victoria represents about 25 per cent of national hospital expenditure, the financial toll of adverse events for Australian inpatients is estimated at about $2 billion per annum."

Of the 979,834 patient admissions included in the study, the La Trobe University researchers found almost 7 per cent — or 67,435 admissions — reported at least one adverse event.

Patients with adverse events stayed in hospital about 10 days longer, and had more than seven times the risk of in-hospital deaths than those without complications.

But the authors note, it is not possible to determine from available data to what extent the complications contributed to death.

Hospitals define adverse events as incidents in which a patient is harmed while being treated. Increased costs associated with such events include longer hospital stays, additional drugs, and further treatment in theatre.

Former professor of health policy at La Trobe University, and co-author of the study, Professor Stephen Duckett, yesterday said acting to prevent the high number of incidents could result in "enormous" savings. Previous studies indicate that between 40 and 50 per cent of adverse events are avoidable.

Professor Duckett said while he was shocked by the huge costs to hospitals, he did not believe Victoria differed from other states. "This is not only a Victorian issue, but a national issue."

The study comes after an Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report released last week showed the number of incidents of adverse events in hospitals nationwide rose by 20,000 in the past year — from 319,321 in 2003-04 to 339,551 in 2004-05.

Australian Medical Association Victorian president Dr Mark Yates yesterday said remedial action should begin with revamping hospital IT systems, boosting doctor numbers and conditions, and reducing hospital overcrowding.

Victorian Health Minister Bronwyn Pike said the Government had increased resources to deal with adverse events, and encouraged openness in reporting hospital mistakes — becoming the first state to publicly release figures on adverse events.

But Ms Pike said the HealthSMART system — including electronic prescriptions — would not be completely rolled out for another three to four years.

Source of article- http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/hospital-mishaps-cost-2bn/2006/06/04/1149359609100.htmln

[The incidence and cost of adverse events in Victorian hospitals 2003-04 Med J Aust 2006; 184 (11): 551-555.]

MisterD

3rd March 2011, 13:21

And yes, NASA know where there shit is going just fine.

Assuming they've not got their imperial and metric confused again...

mashman

3rd March 2011, 13:27

Don't get me wrong. I am not critically reflecting on the science. More the person.

He comes across to what we in the engineering industry call "Bandaid solution bandit".
All cable ties, race tape and she'll be right attitude.
Walk up to him with a broken arm and he will try give you a bandaid.

In fact he reminds me of chicken little. Running around saying "the sky is falling the sky is falling"

Real doomsday scientists come forward and say
"The sky is falling on 21st December on 2012, as this is the day that I have calculated all the planets align and the gravity is strong enough to suck us into the sun - should all be over and done with by 3:15pm"

play the man not the ball why dontcha :shifty:...

Are we still talking about the Moon Man or Political Idol :eek:

:rofl: 3:15 eh... hope it doesn't wake me from my nap...

avgas

3rd March 2011, 13:28

:rofl: 3:15 eh... hope it doesn't wake me from my nap...
With wellingtons "space weather" I imagine you should sleep through the end of the world no problems.

mashman

3rd March 2011, 13:33

With wellingtons "space weather" I imagine you should sleep through the end of the world no problems.

heh, my last thought will be the above if I awaken... followed by "typical, lying bast................."

MisterD

3rd March 2011, 14:01

In Earth's case, the annual wobble and the influence of the moon has caused our core to become molten too. If the moon has this much effect on the core and tides, then I think it quite believable that the Moon may have influence on earthquakes in some cases too.

Nonsense. The (outer) core and molten because of the heat generated as the earth formed from gravitational acretion. One day it'll cool, solidify, the plates will stop moving and the magnetic field will disappear - man, you're going to need some high factor sunblock.

Most scientists in the field would accept that the tidal effect of the moon could have a triggering effect on earthquakes, if conditions on a given fault were susceptible. It's just that all the factors that go into making those conditions right completely outweigh the moon's influence.

Usarka

3rd March 2011, 14:01

I should have read the news before posting my last post. :doh:

What a load of bollocks. Most/all herbal healing modalities are pooh poohed also by science. Plants used for millennia, useful, safe and free to grow....

Not poo-pooed, more like not approved. There is little in the way of FDA (US) approval for herbs because it is so costly and there is nothing in it for the drug companies who spend billions on synthesised and copyrighted derivatives of these plants.

imdying

3rd March 2011, 14:04

tldrLong arse retarded posts, yup, they're a red offence :yes:

Assuming they've not got their imperial and metric confused again...The execution will never be perfect, that's the joy of machines, but their flightplans themselves are fine :) So good in fact that it's almost more plausible to believe that they'd never flown probes to Jupiter, rather than had them on course correctly for half a billion kilometres. Unlike Ken Rings science, theres has genuine results.

I'm giving away one of my motorcycles. Free to the first person that brings me one of Ken Rings ears. And yes, I have a couple of bikes, so just because someone beats you to him, don't let that stop you from bringing me the other one.

Dadpole

3rd March 2011, 15:01

What do I get for one of Kens earrings? :wait:

steve_t

3rd March 2011, 15:08

from http://www.solicitoradvice.com/medicalerrorstats.htm

Medical Error Statistics- In the NEWS

Too lazy to read all/any of that. What do medical errors have to do with the 'herbal remedies vs researched drugs' discussion?

scissorhands

3rd March 2011, 15:17

Too lazy to read all/any of that. What do medical errors have to do with the 'herbal remedies vs researched drugs' discussion?

Someone reckoned herbal medicine is no safer than allopathic, I used those misadventure stats to highlight the opposite.

Science
Fail
Again

steve_t

3rd March 2011, 15:25

Someone reckoned herbal medicine is no safer than allopathic, I used those misadventure stats to highlight the opposite.

Science
Fail
Again

Oh yup. But how does someone getting the wrong body part operated on, or being given the wrong dose or type of medicine, or having instruments left in them during surgery suggest that herbal medicine is safer?

Kickaha

3rd March 2011, 16:26

I'm giving away one of my motorcycles. Free to the first person that brings me one of Ken Rings ears.

Which bike?

Kickaha

3rd March 2011, 16:29

Someone reckoned herbal medicine is no safer than allopathic, I used those misadventure stats to highlight the opposite.

Science
Fail
Again

http://whatstheharm.net/herbalremedies.html

steve_t

3rd March 2011, 16:43

http://whatstheharm.net/herbalremedies.html

Yikes!

And I'm still pissed at the 'therapist' who told my sister's mate that she was completely free from cancer after multiple sessions of colour therapy (at $40-50 a session). Holding a piece of string that is a particular colour for 4 hours does not cure cancer! This girl died just 23 years of age :(

merv

3rd March 2011, 16:57

The 20th is a Sunday so I'll make sure I'm safely at my home in the 'burbs and not in the "Big Smoke". We don't know that Ken isn't right yet!

shrub

3rd March 2011, 17:38

oldrider

3rd March 2011, 22:18

The 20th is a Sunday so I'll make sure I'm safely at my home in the 'burbs and not in the "Big Smoke". We don't know that Ken isn't right yet!

You'll be fine, just carry a clove of garlic and don't step on cracks in the footpath. Oh, and walk clockwise three times around your house chanting "buggermewithazucchiniifkenisright".

Just because we don't understand Chinese, it doesn't mean that 1.3 billion Chinese who do are wrong!

Ken might just be right, personally I hope and believe that he is not! Time at least will tell. :confused:

RiderInBlack

3rd March 2011, 23:12

Large pointless rant about medical errors Of which none showed that all herb are safe, so therefore had absolutely nothing to do with my post that was pointing out that just because it is natural it doesn't make it safe. Hope you can do better than that. How about having some Belladonna Tea to prove to me how safe herbs are.

shrub

4th March 2011, 05:02

Just because we don't understand Chinese, it doesn't mean that 1.3 billion Chinese who do are wrong!

Ken might just be right, personally I hope and believe that he is not! Time at least will tell. :confused:

A better analogy would be: just because we have never seen any evidence of a fat man in a sleigh flying around on Xmas eve delivering presents doesn't mean hundreds of thousands of children who believe in Santa Claus are wrong. The odds of Ken Ring being right about a major quake on the 20th of March are similar to the odds of there never being another one because my plastic Jesus statue is now blutacked to the ledge above the door.

avgas

4th March 2011, 05:59

Just because we don't understand Chinese, it doesn't mean that 1.3 billion Chinese who do are wrong!

Ken might just be right, personally I hope and believe that he is not! Time at least will tell. :confused:
Just to poke a massive hole in your theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_dialects

So lets hope Ken's theory is "Moon causes earthquakes in Chch" specifically......

oneofsix

4th March 2011, 06:18

Of which none showed that all herb are safe, so therefore had absolutely nothing to do with my post that was pointing out that just because it is natural it doesn't make it safe. Hope you can do better than that. How about having some Belladonna Tea to prove to me how safe herbs are.

Deadly nightshade is natural, it's a herb, so it must be safe, right?
Medicines are derived from natural substances, not just herbs. Unlike Homeopathy medicines are tested and approved, although not a prefect system at least a system that tries to hold someone accountable.
The placebo and its opposite, nacebo?, affects have been studied and reasonably understood and real, these affects apply to both homeopathy and medicine.
The drug companies still have thousands of substances to test for there effects so it is still possible the traditional healers have a trick or two over the drug companies.
Traditional healers are to homeopathy like the original substance is to the water the homeopath sells you, they, the homeopath, claim memory from the source, traditional healer, but homeopathy is a modern alternative movement IMHO.

You will be assimilated!

RiderInBlack

4th March 2011, 06:57

Belief plays a huge part in healing. The mind controls a wicked amount of Hormones. so for me it comes to no surprise that healing is effected positively and negatively by at patients strongly held belief. I've seen people die because they believe they are going to die so strongly. People that tell someone that their problem "Is all in their mind", have no idea how hard that makes the problem problem to fix.
For the record, I am not pro-medication or anti-herb, I just know that no matter which treatment you use, you need to have the right knowledge to use it safely and effectively. Using ether without the right knowledge is just dumb and dangerous. Nether Drug or Herbs are safe. If you wish to use Herbs to treat your health problem, then go to a properly trained Herbalist just as you should go to a GP.

oneofsix

4th March 2011, 07:03

Belief plays a huge part in healing. The mind controls a wicked amount of Hormones. so for me it cans to no surprise that healing is effecting positively and negatively by at patients strongly held. I seen people die because they believe they are going to die so strongly. People that tell someone that their problem "Is all in their mind", have no idea how had that makes the problem problem to fix.
For the record, I am not pro-medication or anti-herb, I just know that no matter which treatment you use, you need to have the right knowledge to use it safely and effectively. Using ether without the right knowledge is just dumb and dangerous. Nether Drug or Herbs are safe. If you wish to use Herbs to treat your health problem, then go to a properly trained Herbalist just as you should go to a GP.

+1 :niceone:

scissorhands

4th March 2011, 07:41

http://i.ebayimg.com/05/!BmoMujgBmk~$(KGrHqIH-DwEtrgn3wd)BLgVh7nGHQ~~_35.JPG

shrub

4th March 2011, 08:38

http://i.ebayimg.com/05/!BmoMujgBmk~$(KGrHqIH-DwEtrgn3wd)BLgVh7nGHQ~~_35.JPG

no we're not233567

mashman

5th March 2011, 10:13

And yes, NASA know where there shit is going just fine.

You hexded NASA... (http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/8956804/nasa-satellite-crashes-into-pacific-ocean/) $400 million :facepalm:, they'll just have to spend a little more on one that works :shifty:

mashman

5th March 2011, 19:23

steve_t

5th March 2011, 19:27

Just for the hell of it... Earthquake prediction site (http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm), not moon man related, but they are making regional "predictions"... could be worth keeping an eye on to see how their science, yes science, is going :)

They didn't predict this evenings Chch quake though. March 14-15 for NZ + or - 3 days? I guess that nearly coincides with Ken Ring. How are the predictions different when they both are using the moon to predict the quakes?

mashman

5th March 2011, 19:40

They didn't predict this evenings Chch quake though. March 14-15 for NZ + or - 3 days? I guess that nearly coincides with Ken Ring. How are the predictions different when they both are using the moon to predict the quakes?

True. Young science maybe, dunno. Bullshit science maybe, dunno... perhaps if they all got together and shared their techniques, they may actually come up with a prediction model that works a little better than the current one. Shock horror, perhaps not all quakes are moon related. Could be that recent CME's from the sun have something to do with it. Could be that it's an "earth" quake, dunno... but the more info these guys get the better their predictions will be. If the ones they predict come true (they say on their site that they have a NEW model), then it's a step in the right direction I guess...

shrub

5th March 2011, 21:01

oldrider

6th March 2011, 22:05

I wanted to put plastic Jesus on a different door, so I pulled him down and hadn't blutacked him to his new ledge - he is now on the floor. I will put him back, but use fresh blutak, so I can predict that there will be some activity with daily aftershocks but nothing serious until the 21st of March when I'll remove the araldite. Then there will be a significant quake.

You have got as much chance of being right as anyone else has!

Maybe if you shoved some bluetack up your own arse and sat on the shelf with the plastic Jesus it would add some real drama! :lol: :facepalm:

scissorhands

6th March 2011, 23:40

There must be a whole swag of celestial body data, sun activity, space dust, meteors, many other incalculable influences.

All on top of what earth itself is doing.... try as we seem to calculate an effect on the crusts at a certain time...add priors like recent crust movement, crust movement in apparently unrelated areas that may actually relate to and impact on your area of concern and I think you start to realize that accurate prediction will involve considerably more complex software programs and algorithms.

On top of that imputation difficulty, measurement methods of said relevant data has not been invented yet

shrub

7th March 2011, 08:09

You have got as much chance of being right as anyone else has!

And as much chance as Ken Ring.

Maybe if you shoved some bluetack up your own arse and sat on the shelf with the plastic Jesus it would add some real drama! :lol: :facepalm:

nah mate, my arse is too big for the shelf. I'll blutak myself to a bar stool though.:yes:

mashman

7th March 2011, 20:09

Just for the hell of it... Earthquake prediction site (http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm), not moon man related, but they are making regional "predictions"... could be worth keeping an eye on to see how their science, yes science, is going :)

Well they've claimed 5 in the last 24 hours or so. All predicted 9 - 10 days ago, but all coming in early, 3 outwith the variance. Could it be that the recent solar winds have sped either the moon or the earth up? Dunno, perhaps the rest will come in early too, perhaps not...

Winston001

7th March 2011, 21:02

Could it be that the recent solar winds have sped either the moon or the earth up?

You do realise that a solar wind strong enough to move the earth would also strip every shred of our atmosphere and flay us alive? :blink:

mashman

7th March 2011, 22:56

You do realise that a solar wind strong enough to move the earth would also strip every shred of our atmosphere and flay us alive? :blink:

heh, I don't doubt that that is the case. However, :shifty:, the averages i've seen are about 400km s and a few days ago, for at least 2 days, it was blowing at near double that. Pretty quick... I am assuming that the Earth and Moon are used to the "average" solar wind and was wondering if an increase in solar wind could potentially spin Earth slightly faster, or slower for that matter or indeed slow or speed up the moons pace across the sky.

If the moon is partially responsible for earthquakes and planets do speed up and slow down (part of an "space" earthquake calculation I saw), then even though the Earth and/or Moon may have only sped by 1 km/h, or even 0.01, given the distance between Earth and Moon, that could be 100's if not 1000's of kms from where a "force" was meant to push/pull given an average solar wind. Just thinkin, badly maybe, but it would seem "plausible"?

Winston001

8th March 2011, 04:00

However, :shifty:, the averages i've seen are about 400km s and a few days ago, for at least 2 days, it was blowing at near double that. Pretty quick... I am assuming that the Earth and Moon are used to the "average" solar wind and was wondering if an increase in solar wind could potentially spin Earth slightly faster, or slower for that matter or indeed slow or speed up the moons pace across the sky.

The solar wind from the sun is composed of photons (sunlight, solar flares) which is termed electromagnetic radiation, and high speed particles from atoms ripped apart through fusion.

The sun is gigantic. We can't really comprehend just how big and powerful it is. However, we are 150 million km away so only a tiny fraction of the solar wind strikes the Earth and the Moon. Imagine a dragon breathing fire at you - but from a kilometer away. You might feel warm but it won't push you around.

The solar wind is thin - very thin. Even satellites don't get moved around by it. The Earth is massive by comparison.

If the moon is partially responsible for earthquakes and planets do speed up and slow down (part of an "space" earthquake calculation I saw), then even though the Earth and/or Moon may have only sped by 1 km/h, or even 0.01, given the distance between Earth and Moon, that could be 100's if not 1000's of kms from where a "force" was meant to push/pull given an average solar wind. Just thinkin, badly maybe, but it would seem "plausible"?

Certainly gravity is a significant force in the Universe. No argument. However we need to recognise that gravity is by far the weakest of the four fundamental forces, so weak in fact it is discounted in particle physics.

The crust of the Earth is made up of thin sheets of dirt floating on molten rock. Those sheets bump and grind causing earthquakes. The sheets are big enough to be pulled by gravity from the sun and the moon combined. This is also when we get spring tides because water moves much more freely than rock.

Even so, despite the sun and the moon getting into position pretty regularly, large destructive earthquakes are rare. The energy required to cause a major earthquake comes from pressures within the mantle, not from outer space.

In summary - the solar wind is really weak, and so is gravity. If this was not true, the solar system would have flown to pieces aeons ago, or else all fallen into the sun.

pzkpfw

8th March 2011, 07:23

... could potentially spin Earth slightly faster, or slower for that matter or indeed slow or speed up the moons pace across the sky. ...

You really think no one would have noticed?

mashman

8th March 2011, 07:59

You really think no one would have noticed?

:rofl: I couldn't find anywhere that explained what I was seeking clarification on.

My reasons are many. From the ideas behind solar sails, to Venus spinning in a completely different direction to every other planet in the solar system, to planets supposedly not spinning at a constant speed...

mashman

8th March 2011, 09:48

thanks for the patience :)

This NASA document (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1998/ast08dec98_1/) says that solar winds are responsible for ejecting some of our atmosphere into space. I found it whilst trying to ascertain what the solar wind is (still no further forwards really... they only ever seem to list its component makeup). It's as clear as mud :blink: :rofl:

But your dragon example. If you dragon breathes fire at me twice as fast, would I feel warmer? Would I feel more of a pressure wave?

Anyhoo, as a sidebar, i didn't realise that Jupiter had lost one of its coloured rings... musta taken something quite incredible to have done that... kinda wondered why I could only see 1 of them during the summer :), now I know

pzkpfw

8th March 2011, 11:30

:rofl: I couldn't find anywhere that explained what I was seeking clarification on.

My reasons are many. From the ideas behind solar sails, to Venus spinning in a completely different direction to every other planet in the solar system, to planets supposedly not spinning at a constant speed...

I'm not asking about causes, but the specific effect you seem to think might have occured.

Just one thing I can think of - telescopes computer controlled to remain pointing at a particular star or whatever while the Earth spins.

Do you think those astronomers wouldn't have noticed if the rotation of the Earth had sped up or slowed down?

imdying

8th March 2011, 11:41

Anyhoo, as a sidebar, i didn't realise that Jupiter had lost one of its coloured rings... musta taken something quite incredible to have done that... Wow with a capital W.

Do you think those astronomers wouldn't have noticed if the rotation of the Earth had sped up or slowed down?All things related to the planets seem to consider a figure like a thousand years a mere blink in time, so no, they wouldn't notice if that were the case... if you dig?

mashman

8th March 2011, 12:56

I'm not asking about causes, but the specific effect you seem to think might have occured.

Just one thing I can think of - telescopes computer controlled to remain pointing at a particular star or whatever while the Earth spins.

Do you think those astronomers wouldn't have noticed if the rotation of the Earth had sped up or slowed down?

I wasn't making any particular statement, more looking for a clarification or something that'd point me in the right direction...

I've got one of those :blink: (must learn how to use it properly :)), but I doubt it would highlight the changes in speed that i'm looking to clarify.

Heh, i'm not looking with to prove anything to anyone... just looking for a little knowledge with which to form an opinion on the Moon effects on earthquakes, trying to see what other potential factors there are that could affect the Earth Moon "dynamic".

As I understand it objects/instances of influenece that are far far away and directed 0.00000001 of a degree from the centre of Earth, could mean that by the time the object/influence got here, it would miss Earth by thousands of k's, or at least miss the centre by 1000's of k's etc... and was loosley coupling that to the "early" Earthquakes on the prediction site.

marty

8th March 2011, 16:58

oneofsix

8th March 2011, 17:13

mashman

8th March 2011, 17:45

... and the sun rose 2 days early over the Greenland horizon (sped up planet? or just off its axis?). Jupiter lost one of its prominent stripes last year (WTF that's the biggest planet in the solar system), beetlegeuse is supposed to be imploding/exploding/supernovafying itself (not sure how long it will take for us to see/feel it's effects), animals are dropping from the skies and washing up on to the beaches, fireballs have been crashing to earth but not making the news (4 or 5 this year from what i've read)... and my fave, we're supposed to be having a visit from a planet potentially 40 times the size of Earth in the very near future (could prove very interesting, if it isn't being felt already, see above)... Wish I had a better telescope and coordinates to point at :)

Winston001

8th March 2011, 18:08

Its good that you are curious and have an enquiring mind Mash. Just be wary of what you find on the net. It is too easy for people with a pet obsession to capture attention for their theories.

Winston001

8th March 2011, 18:21

whether or not the solar winds affect the earth, or to what extent may be over taken by the Magnetic North Pole having apparently packed its visa for Russia.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10710542

The solar winds will affect earth just a matter of how much. The moon (according to discovery) is distancing itself from earth and if it does we could lose our atmosphere. Discovery also mentioned that the earth have an unusually large moon for its size etc.
I will defer this to smarter minds however. Just wanted to throw in that the changes in the core will have major effect on us.

The Earth's magnetic field switches polarity every 300,000 years on average and Magnetic North has been moving about 40k/yr in recent times. That equates to a degree of longitude for Africa annually. Nothing magic, untoward or unknown.

The Earth's core is molten radioactive iron which creates a magnetic field. A new theory is that the "east" side of the core is more molten and the "west" crystalline, thus causing earthquakes in the "west". Interesting idea but its early days.

... and the sun rose 2 days early over the Greenland horizon (sped up planet? or just off its axis?). Jupiter lost one of its prominent stripes last year (WTF that's the biggest planet in the solar system), beetlegeuse is supposed to be imploding/exploding/supernovafying itself (not sure how long it will take for us to see/feel it's effects), animals are dropping from the skies and washing up on to the beaches, fireballs have been crashing to earth but not making the news (4 or 5 this year from what i've read)... and my fave, we're supposed to be having a visit from a planet potentially 40 times the size of Earth in the very near future (could prove very interesting, if it isn't being felt already, see above)... Wish I had a better telescope and coordinates to point at :)

Jupiter's southern dark band has disappeared before - 1973, and the explanation is high white clouds covering it for a while. We have no idea why.

marty

8th March 2011, 18:22

... Jupiter lost one of its prominent stripes last year (WTF that's the biggest planet in the solar system), :)

this was in the beginning of 2010 - hardly new news...

"The last time it happened was 1973," said Eric Vandernoot, the Astronomy and Physics Lab coordinator at Florida Atlantic University. "This is why Jupiter is my favorite planet. It's a constantly changing system, and it's wonderful to watch. You can see the changes occur on any given night."

Wesley's photos were also released by The Planetary Society in California, which added that Jupiter's Southern Equatorial Belt tends to fade from view about every three to 15 years.

Winston001

8th March 2011, 19:32

... and the sun rose 2 days early over the Greenland horizon (sped up planet? or just off its axis?).

Well actually, only Ilulissat, northern Greenland. Fairbanks, Alaska didn't notice any change. So the effect is localised and the most likely explanation is layers of cool air in the region bending the sun's rays more than normal, thus pulling the sun's light just over the horizon a little early.

Betelgeuse is supposed to be imploding/exploding/supernovafying itself (not sure how long it will take for us to see/feel it's effects

Betelgeus is a dying red giant so of course it will go supernova some day. Could be 10 million years, could have already happened. Not to worry though, its 640 light years away so we are safe enough.

animals are dropping from the skies and washing up on to the beaches, fireballs have been crashing to earth but not making the news (4 or 5 this year from what i've read)... and my fave, we're supposed to be having a visit from a planet potentially 40 times the size of Earth in the very near future (could prove very interesting, if it isn't being felt already, see above)... Wish I had a better telescope and coordinates to point at :)

Now Mash, you are simply trolling. If you sincerely believe these events occurred without rational explanations, you should do your own research.

FYI fish, frogs, and animals have dropped out of the sky on extremely rare occasions for centuries. The best theory is tornadoes sucking them up into the sky.

There might be a planet or dustball in the Kuiper Belt with a long return period around the sun, just like the comets, but it hasn't been identified or located. The sheer volume of space outside Pluto's orbit tied to the sun's gravity is immense. We do not know about everything out there.

mashman

8th March 2011, 20:51

this was in the beginning of 2010 - hardly new news...

well it was news to me :bleh: thanks for the info :)

mashman

8th March 2011, 21:16

Well actually, only Ilulissat, northern Greenland. Fairbanks, Alaska didn't notice any change. So the effect is localised and the most likely explanation is layers of cool air in the region bending the sun's rays more than normal, thus pulling the sun's light just over the horizon a little early.

natural precession?

Betelgeus is a dying red giant so of course it will go supernova some day. Could be 10 million years, could have already happened. Not to worry though, its 640 light years away so we are safe enough.

I'm gonna need a bigger telescope :).

Now Mash, you are simply trolling. If you sincerely believe these events occurred without rational explanations, you should do your own research.

FYI fish, frogs, and animals have dropped out of the sky on extremely rare occasions for centuries. The best theory is tornadoes sucking them up into the sky.

I'm sure they have rational explanations, but it would seem that most of these occurences are "unexplainable", or at least have such bullshit excuses attached to them that I don't "believe" they were natural events... and as i'll never truley know, i'll add it to the mega conspiracy theory of dubious human intervention.

true, but it was the frequency that had me intrigued. Edbear posted a link of about 20 events in a month (coulda been more). Hence added to mega conspiracy. COuld all be due to wandering pole.

There might be a planet or dustball in the Kuiper Belt with a long return period around the sun, just like the comets, but it hasn't been identified or located. The sheer volume of space outside Pluto's orbit tied to the sun's gravity is immense. We do not know about everything out there.

I understand that, and indeed it goes back to your warning about trusting the internet etc... but this is one I'm gonna file under belief/hope... I hope to see the Nibiru visit, even though it may be the last thing I do see :)... I think we kinda need something like that to wake us the fuck up before the mega conspiracy kicks in. It's not a 2012 thing per se, i'm sure Summerian/Mayan etc... symbology can be interpretted a few ways, but knowing the colours of Uranus and Neptune 3000+ years ago does have me wondering :)... but it's not the linchpin for my mega conspiracy.

imdying

9th March 2011, 08:53

Winston001

9th March 2011, 21:31

You know when you get a block of wood stuck in a hole, and you wiggle it, you can sometimes wiggle it out? Maybe the earth tides are jiggling the plates as they're moving about, and occasionally it wiggles it free enough to let loose. Sure that won't let you predict earthquakes, but it might give you a line on what influence the moon can have?

I don't think anyone completely dismisses the tidal effects of lunar and solar gravity. Their influence may very well be the straw which breaks the camels back...as it were. If a fault line is under high stress, as happened with Christchurch, the moon's gravity may just be enough to tip the balance.

But that isn't saying anything very clever. Every part of the globe faces the Moon every 24 hours. Despite that, large earthquakes are rare. Why isn't the Moon causing daily tectonic disruptions? Indeed, why isn't the Earth (which has a far stronger gravity field) pulling the Moon to pieces?

mashman

10th March 2011, 10:35

I don't think anyone completely dismisses the tidal effects of lunar and solar gravity. Their influence may very well be the straw which breaks the camels back...as it were. If a fault line is under high stress, as happened with Christchurch, the moon's gravity may just be enough to tip the balance.

But that isn't saying anything very clever. Every part of the globe faces the Moon every 24 hours. Despite that, large earthquakes are rare. Why isn't the Moon causing daily tectonic disruptions? Indeed, why isn't the Earth (which has a far stronger gravity field) pulling the Moon to pieces?

With the state of Science these days, they should know if it's a worm fart or moon influence causing earthquakes, imho. I can only assume it's not a priority, probably having been dismissed to the too hard basket. That or they do know and don't want to say anything about it because it would disrupt profit flow. That's not a troll, it's a valid concern and a constant hinderance to human endeavour

With that in mind. The Moon is moving away from Earth at approx 1.5 inches per year (http://www.nasa.gov/connect/chat/moon_core_chat.html). Yet out of nowhere the moon is closer to earth than it has been in X amount of years (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/38/20110309/tsc-world-to-see-biggest-full-moon-in-tw-98fda55.html). Earth has a finite gravitational pull, after all the moon is moving away. So what causes the Moon to suddenly be close to Earth again. A Miracle? An NWO tractor beam? Or influences from the star and other planets of the solar system? I know, it's the tractor beam :shifty:. If the Moon moving closer to the earth can cause Earthquakes, or at least be the straw, then what pushes the moon closer to Earth? and does that force have anything to do with earthquakes? I can't find any answers to those questions... and science being what it is, I would have thought those simple, in the neighbourhood questions would have readily available answers. Or perhaps they don;t know, because they never gave the theory any credence... either way, it's a Science Fail.

rickstv

10th March 2011, 11:36

do you have a link for that?

Sorry Marty, seems I was a bit off with that theory. The bit about Io was correct.

I was sure I saw it on telly or read it somewhere. Just shows, don't believe everything you read till you Google it.:shutup:
Rick.

imdying

10th March 2011, 11:55

With that in mindDid you even read either of the links? And understand them? It's not a science fail, it's a mashman fail.

mashman

10th March 2011, 11:58

Did you even read either of the links? And understand them? It's not a science fail, it's a mashman fail.

Right. So what rattled your cage in particular?

NighthawkNZ

10th March 2011, 12:43

Science... it is only correct until prooven wrong... it is always being updated and evolving as they come up with new techniques to test stuff and and from that comes new theories, out with old and in witht he new theory... and even when it is prooven right they still only class it as a theory as it could be updated or even ultimately prooven wrong the very next day

shrub

10th March 2011, 14:07

With the state of Science these days, they should know if it's a worm fart or moon influence causing earthquakes, imho.

Given the number of scientists working in that field, every likely and damn near every unlikely cause of earthquakes is either being studied to death or has been analysed to insanity, quite possibly including worm farts. Lunar, solar or stellar influences will have been the first thing studied and every time new information, new technology or a new event (our lovely quake) surfaces you can bet your left testicle that a hundred scientists leap up and try and find something. That there have been NO valid connections between the sun, stars and moon and predicting quakes doesn't suggest a weakness in science, but is a clear argument that the theory is flawed.

I can only assume it's not a priority, probably having been dismissed to the too hard basket. That or they do know and don't want to say anything about it because it would disrupt profit flow. That's not a troll, it's a valid concern and a constant hinderance to human endeavour.

Finding shit out is what scientists love to do more than anything, and finding an answer to a question that nobody else has been able to answer is the Holy Grail for scientists. Claiming they have dismissed it to the "too hard basket" or that it would "disrupt the profit flow" suggests you don't understand how these people work. Let me give you an analogy: If I gave you a choice of getting somewhere on your bike via a 50 km journey over windy roads or a 30 km straight road; I know which one you'd choose. However a car driver who has no understanding of bikes would expect you to take the straight road because it's quicker, easier and uses less fuel.

believe me, if there was ANYTHING in Ken Ring's theories there would be a thousand scientists out there researching every inch of it. He's a guy who makes good money selling his predictions to the gullible, the vulnerable and the needy. Just like the tarot card reader who's premises were destroyed on 22nd of April.

shrub

10th March 2011, 14:15

Science... it is only correct until prooven wrong.

Not quite, before a theory sees the light of day it gets challenged from every possible angle. It's part of the peer review process where you have a heap of people who work in your area look for weaknesses in your argument and test you. And often they are pissed off that you have found something they wanted to find, don't like you, don't like who you work for or even simply feel like being obstreporous so will look for every possible flaw and exaggerate anything they don't like to the point where having a sample of 999 is seen as negating your findings because the sample should have been 1000.

mashman

10th March 2011, 16:44

Given the number of scientists working in that field, every likely and damn near every unlikely cause of earthquakes is either being studied to death or has been analysed to insanity, quite possibly including worm farts. Lunar, solar or stellar influences will have been the first thing studied and every time new information, new technology or a new event (our lovely quake) surfaces you can bet your left testicle that a hundred scientists leap up and try and find something. That there have been NO valid connections between the sun, stars and moon and predicting quakes doesn't suggest a weakness in science, but is a clear argument that the theory is flawed.

But there have been valid enough connections imho, yeah who am I to have an opinion. There is a prediction website out there that seems to be doing a pretty good job of it. They list their predictions for free... and yet these scientists you speak of are the same scientists that can't even agree on wether it was a new fault or not, or wether the fault existed before or after the earthquake :blink:. Surely they've been looking for faults? And faults aren't in the sky. If that's the best they can come up with after decades of "scientific" research, and there's an Entomolologist somewhere predicting, as the website claims, about 85% of earthquakes ("about 15% of earthquakes cannot be forecast")... then yes, I class it as a Science fail.

Finding shit out is what scientists love to do more than anything, and finding an answer to a question that nobody else has been able to answer is the Holy Grail for scientists. Claiming they have dismissed it to the "too hard basket" or that it would "disrupt the profit flow" suggests you don't understand how these people work. Let me give you an analogy: If I gave you a choice of getting somewhere on your bike via a 50 km journey over windy roads or a 30 km straight road; I know which one you'd choose. However a car driver who has no understanding of bikes would expect you to take the straight road because it's quicker, easier and uses less fuel.

believe me, if there was ANYTHING in Ken Ring's theories there would be a thousand scientists out there researching every inch of it. He's a guy who makes good money selling his predictions to the gullible, the vulnerable and the needy. Just like the tarot card reader who's premises were destroyed on 22nd of April.

Screw Ken Ring, he's the tip of an ever growing iceberg, the tip being all anyone cares to look at as per usual :facepalm:. There's a Science out there that's not perfect. 85% prediction ratio is good enough for me. Why haven't the funded greatest minds of the generation come up with an 85% prediction ratio? Is it not worthwhile?

We'll have to agree to disagree. The way I see it, Scientists don't pay for their own science, and therefore do not have control over the marketing of their Science, and therefore do not ALWAYS get to chose the avenue that their Science gets to travel. Now if Scientists paid for their own Science and could take it in their own direction, then I reckon the world would be a massively different place. They are the realities. I bet there's no money in it.

The car driver doesn't want to drive around corners because it's quicker and easier to go in a straight line :blink:... why not? are they not the same person?

shrub

11th March 2011, 08:37

But there have been valid enough connections imho, yeah who am I to have an opinion. There is a prediction website out there that seems to be doing a pretty good job of it. They list their predictions for free... and yet these scientists you speak of are the same scientists that can't even agree on wether it was a new fault or not, or wether the fault existed before or after the earthquake :blink:. Surely they've been looking for faults? And faults aren't in the sky. If that's the best they can come up with after decades of "scientific" research, and there's an Entomolologist somewhere predicting, as the website claims, about 85% of earthquakes ("about 15% of earthquakes cannot be forecast")... then yes, I class it as a Science fail.

Connections and correlations are easy to find, but correlation doesn't mean cause. All but 2 of my crashes on bikes have been on Yamahas and none on British or European bikes - does that mean Yamahas are dangerous and Euros are safe? No, 3 of the first 4 bikes I owned were Yamahas, and that's when I didn't know about things like not slamming on the brakes in the middle of a corner, riding pissed or how dangerous bald tyres are. Because earthquakes are so devastating and expensive you can guarantee a shitload of work and money has gone into trying to predict them. And anyone who finds the answer will get something that academics have wet dreams over - their work will be called "seminal".

Screw Ken Ring, he's the tip of an ever growing iceberg, the tip being all anyone cares to look at as per usual :facepalm:. There's a Science out there that's not perfect. 85% prediction ratio is good enough for me. Why haven't the funded greatest minds of the generation come up with an 85% prediction ratio? Is it not worthwhile?

I'm interested in the group who claim an 85% success rate - can you give me a link please? As for ken Ring being the tip, yes he is. The link between lunar/solar/stellar activity and earthquakes is the logical and easy one, like the link between speed and crash rates. There may well be a link and some degree of causality, but there are a shitload of other factors in place, and I doubt dear old Ken has the ability to identify, measure or monitor those factors. I doubt anyone has.

We'll have to agree to disagree. The way I see it, Scientists don't pay for their own science, and therefore do not have control over the marketing of their Science, and therefore do not ALWAYS get to chose the avenue that their Science gets to travel. Now if Scientists paid for their own Science and could take it in their own direction, then I reckon the world would be a massively different place. They are the realities. I bet there's no money in it.

Actually they do. They pay in time and energy for their science, and ultimately in money. The area I'm researching at the moment has taken the majority of my time over the last 12 months and will do for the next 12 or so. Because of that I am confined to paid work for a few hours a week which means my income is 1/4 of what it could be if I worked full time for cash. I am terrified to calculate how much my studies will cost me, but to quote dear old Victor Hugo: "There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come."

Once a tested idea (which is ultimately what science is) has been released into the world, it is taken and explored, developed, expanded, improved and implemented. If you are familiar with the ideas of Adam Smith you will understand that the market then takes control of that idea and drives it. Scientists invented plastic, the internal combustion engine and better ways to brew beer.

The car driver doesn't want to drive around corners because it's quicker and easier to go in a straight line :blink:... why not? are they not the same person?

My analogy was a little clumsy. To understand the motivation of a scientist imagine that mashman is sitting on his bike at an intersection. To the left is a road consisting of 50 km of corners and to the right is 20 km of motorway, and both roads lead to the boozer. I am talking to a car driver and she says "I believe Mashman will want to take the motorway because it's quick and easy and there aren't all those tight corners to negotiate". She thinks mashman will do that because she doesn't understand that 50 km of windy road is what Mashman loves best. She bases her expectations on what she would do.

It's the same with scientists. They love to spend hours and hours researching information, testing ideas, finding flaws in their hypotheses, fine tuning them and finally producing A Theory. Most of them really don't care about money beyond being able to pay their bills and have a comfortable lifestyle, so they don't follow the money.

mashman

11th March 2011, 09:31

Here's the linky (http://www.nextearthquake.com/index.htm) (again :bleh:)

As for the rest. I don't wholly disagree with what you've said, and your analogy still sucks :shifty: and I got it the first time :yes:, I was just being a twit... I'm not sure if "space weather" was ever considered as a factor in Earthquake correlation and cause, it may have been such a young Science that it was either never considered or the data just wasn't available, dunno... but with Scientists being such an inquisitive lot, I would imagine that somewhere along the lines "space weather" was binned as a theory, potentially by a very well respected and learned scientist in the field... again, dunno. Even though scientists put their time and sanity into their Science, the funding comes from elsewhere and that elsewhere generally gets to decide what direction that "science" goes in... Just ask the AGW guys :). :rofl:@seminal celebration... bunch of wankers :shifty:

shrub

11th March 2011, 09:45

Even though scientists put their time and sanity into their Science, the funding comes from elsewhere and that elsewhere generally gets to decide what direction that "science" goes in... Just ask the AGW guys :). :rofl:@seminal celebration... bunch of wankers :shifty:

Having applied for research funding, admittedly not a hell of a lot, there isn't a lot of weight attached to the area you're planning to research. The funders are more interested in how you're going to do things than what you're doing or who will benefit/be impacted.

As for climate change, the only people who have to produce research that fits a mould or follows a predetermined path with an expected outcome are the deniers because the groups that fund them are in turn funded and/or controlled by energy interests, conservative political bodies or fundamentalist christians. And given that there is no evidence supporting their position and almost all of what they come up with is the same old bollocks repeated ad nauseum or simply spin, a genuinely curious scientist is unlikely to get enthusiastic about working in that field any more. Kind of like trying to recruit scientists to research the sun rotating round the earth or engineers to design a superbike with a sidevalve engine, hand shifter and girder forks.

shrub

11th March 2011, 10:22

Here's the linky (http://www.nextearthquake.com/index.htm) (again :bleh:)

Thank you for that, and interesting site and yes, he does claim quite stunning accuracy - in predicting minor quakes. He predicted a quake around the 22nd of Feb of M2.9 - M4.9. I'm assuming M stands for magnitude, and that he is using the Richter scale. If so, there are around 30,000 quakes every year that fit that range, and given the Sept quake and constant aftershocks, that's pretty easy to get right. In fact I will use my Plastic Jesus method to predict a 3.0 - 4.0 quake within the next 24 hours. Check Geonet, and if I'm wrong I'll shout you a beer. Only problem the quake was a 6.3 on the Richter and around a 9 on the MM.

And it's interesting that he doesn't explain his methodology. He has all these predictions that "have a strong scientific physical basis and are derived through unique mathematical modeling which took some four years to develop and is the intellectual property of Dr Reg Roberts", yet won't even outline his methodology. Very unusual for an academic, especially one who has developed a "unique mathematical modelling".

So I did a little checking on the good Dr. RJ Roberts PhD. I couldn't find him on Google or Google Scholar, so I looked through the various databases of academic journals I have access to, and I drew a blank on anything to do with earthquakes, mathematics, geology or even astronomy. I widened my search to include ALL academic journals and the good Doctor is notable by his absence. In other words he hasn't published ANYTHING, including a doctoral thesis.

So we have an unknown scholar who is predicting stuff that happens all the time and won't disclose how he predicts this stuff. Forgive my scepticism, but I don't think I'll be taking him all that seriously.

shrub

11th March 2011, 10:51

On his website I found this:

"Reg Roberts holds a PhD in Entomology from the University of Illinois (1962) and a D.I.C. (Diploma of Imperial College, London (1972). Before his retirement he was a Principal Research Scientist in CSIRO Australia where he studied the population dynamics of pasture insects. Reg is an expert on pattern recognition."

So he's a long-retired insect scientist. Maybe he uses earthworm farts to predict quakes?

oneofsix

11th March 2011, 10:56

shrub

11th March 2011, 11:08

cheap dig so beneath you. I think the point is meant to be the sentence "Reg is an expert on pattern recognition"

maybe I should have been a little more charitable towards dear old Reg. Being able to recognise and analyse patterns is pretty central to damn near every field of research, hell, even I have expertise in and use pattern recognition to analyse data and I work in the social sciences.

mashman

11th March 2011, 12:21

So we have an unknown scholar who is predicting stuff that happens all the time and won't disclose how he predicts this stuff. Forgive my scepticism, but I don't think I'll be taking him all that seriously.

and yet he's still making relatively accurate predictions across the ENTIRE globe. Where are the experts predictions, warnings, utterings? Nowhere to be seen, so he must have just been getting lucky since 2009 :blink:... And as for not taking him seriously becuase he isn't an expert, i'm dissapointed, because if you think like that, then real scientists will too :shifty: (cheap, but for smile value, not a jibe at you shrub)...

So he's a long-retired insect scientist. Maybe he uses earthworm farts to predict quakes?

and yet the experts can't, or won't predict quakes... classic... what did Einstein do for a living? :facepalm:... if that's indicative of the attitude of the scientific community, then it's no more than science snobbery

imdying

11th March 2011, 12:34

and yet the experts can't, or won't predict quakes... classic... what did Einstein do for a living? :facepalm:... if that's indicative of the attitude of the scientific community, then it's no more than science snobberyThey also can't travel through time, or faster than light, or make crops impervious to insects... wow, all that fail :rolleyes:

mashman

11th March 2011, 12:50

O M G......... after all this time too

oneofsix

11th March 2011, 12:51

They also can't travel through time, or faster than light, or make crops impervious to insects... wow, all that fail :rolleyes:

A cure for the common cold would be nice :headbang:

shrub

11th March 2011, 13:06

and yet he's still making relatively accurate predictions across the ENTIRE globe. Where are the experts predictions, warnings, utterings? Nowhere to be seen, so he must have just been getting lucky since 2009 :

I haven't bothered to look at his predictions outside of NZ because i haven't got the time to see how accurate he is elsewhere, but let's look at a few of the quakes he seems to have missed:
M5.0 Rotorua, Mar 15, 2009
M5.1 Rotorua, Jun 18 2009
M7.1 Darfield, Sept -4 2010 (I personally remember that one)
M6.3 Christchurch 22 Feb.

If you look at his website, he claims to have predicted a few small shakes within a radius of 400 - 500 kms! For Christchurch that pretty much includes all the South Island and given we're a seismically active country and quakes like that happen 30,000 times a year it's kind of like me saying "I predict that it will rain in March". He has only "predicted" a very, very small number of the quakes we have experienced and none of the serious ones so what earthly use is his data?

And he makes all kinds of claims with no way of validating them beyond hours of sifting through historic data. It's like me saying "97% of female lingerie models aged between 22 and 30 wish they could sleep with Shrub and of them 68% fantasize about having a threesome with Shrub and another woman".

mashman

11th March 2011, 13:11

I haven't bothered to look at his predictions outside of NZ because i haven't got the time to see how accurate he is elsewhere, but let's look at a few of the quakes he seems to have missed:
M5.0 Rotorua, Mar 15, 2009
M5.1 Rotorua, Jun 18 2009
M7.1 Darfield, Sept -4 2010 (I personally remember that one)
M6.3 Christchurch 22 Feb.

If you look at his website, he claims to have predicted a few small shakes within a radius of 400 - 500 kms! For Christchurch that pretty much includes all the South Island and given we're a seismically active country and quakes like that happen 30,000 times a year it's kind of like me saying "I predict that it will rain in March". He has only "predicted" a very, very small number of the quakes we have experienced and none of the serious ones so what earthly use is his data?

And he makes all kinds of claims with no way of validating them beyond hours of sifting through historic data. It's like me saying "97% of female lingerie models aged between 22 and 30 wish they could sleep with Shrub and of them 68% fantasize about having a threesome with Shrub and another woman".

and the weatherman gets the swell height wrong every day, and plenty of times it rains at my place when it's supposed to be sunny, not to mention constantly getting the temperature wrong too... but they don't use any form of accepted science to predict those things do they :blink:

shrub

11th March 2011, 13:19

and the weatherman gets the swell height wrong every day, and plenty of times it rains at my place when it's supposed to be sunny, not to mention constantly getting the temperature wrong too... but they don't use any form of accepted science to predict those things do they :blink:

So what you're saying is it really doesn't matter how many major quakes dear old Reg missed because he got a few of the minor ones and weather is notoriously hard to predict?

BTW I pay about as much attention to weather forcasts as I do to politicians promises.

mashman

11th March 2011, 13:24

So what you're saying is it really doesn't matter how many major quakes dear old Reg missed because he got a few of the minor ones and weather is notoriously hard to predict?

BTW I pay about as much attention to weather forcasts as I do to politicians promises.

I'm saying that there may well be something in the worm fart theory that warrants a MUCH closer look, potentially something that has already been dismissed... especially as the worm fart guy isn't a recognised geologist, meteorologist, physicist etc...

BTW, I started my working career as a fisherman, the weather prediction is kinda important, especially when its wrong on the wrong side of wrong :), that kinda kills people. Politicians :rofl: they keep most of the minor problems and just break there major ones... damn that sounds almost familiar :)

NighthawkNZ

11th March 2011, 13:33

Not quite, before a theory sees the light of day it gets challenged from every possible angle. It's part of the peer review process where you have a heap of people who work in your area look for weaknesses in your argument and test you. And often they are pissed off that you have found something they wanted to find, don't like you, don't like who you work for or even simply feel like being obstreporous so will look for every possible flaw and exaggerate anything they don't like to the point where having a sample of 999 is seen as negating your findings because the sample should have been 1000.

Yes I know what you are saying, however when we start making better and more powerfull computers, telescopses, Microscopes, instruments and satelites many of the scientific theories out there will change to suit there new findings... Most are fact until prooven wrong like Big Bang Theory...well they now believe there was multiple bangs and that the still happen in the ever expanding universe.

Remember the Earth is flat and the Sun revolves aound the Earth and that the Earth is the centre of the universe... all seemed logical at the time with the tools, eviedence they had and knowledge obtained untill the telescope was invented... and oh bugger things looked different...

At the end of the day science is only knowledge that we (as a collective) have discovered thus far, it doesn't mean that it is all or that it is correct it is only based on the obtainable eviedence with the tools and equipment at hand and if you haven't got all the eviedence then ithe theory could be wrong (could also be 100% correct too) and a lot is only theory. Whilst the out come will be prodded and poked at looking for holes they are only using the knowledge they have obtained as well...

234142

http://www.southernrider.co.nz/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=12014&p=41803&hilit=light#p41803

imdying

11th March 2011, 13:37

At the end of the day science is only knowledge that we (as a collective) have discovered thus far, it doesn't mean that it is all or that it is correct it is only based on the obtainable eviedence with the tools and equipment at hand and if you haven't got all the eviedence then ithe theory could be wrong (could also be 100% correct too) and a lot is only theory.Granted... but if the alternative is to listen to a loon who has never managed to ever predict any specific earthquakes of any magnitude, then I'll be sticking with the flawed science ta.

NighthawkNZ

11th March 2011, 13:48

mashman

11th March 2011, 16:00

oldrider

11th March 2011, 20:00

Granted... but if the alternative is to listen to a loon who has never managed to ever predict any specific earthquakes of any magnitude, then I'll be sticking with the flawed science ta.

Ken Ring is not "the" voice of reason for this line of thinking, he is but one of many around the world!

There may well be unexplained forces acting upon the earth that may or may not influence world events etc and this line of thought is shared by many.

Just because Ken Ring is our most vocal proponent and his claims are lacking any apparent accuracy or substance, I think it would be unwise to disregard the theory completely.

Something is going on out there and it does seem to have cyclical influences on our planet, it is best to keep an open mind until there is a clearer explanation!

Even with all the resources at their disposal our "official" world academic experts have yet to come up with the answers, so until someone does, all bets are still on!

Opinions are like arseholes, everybody has one! :weird:

Winston001

11th March 2011, 22:06

Science... it is only correct until prooven wrong... out with old and in with he new theory...

Yeah, but I'm getting a little tired of this. You are repeating one of those New Age mantras which is glib but seldom examined. The common wisdom is "science cannot be relied upon because next year there will be a new theory". Ergo science is a crock and non-scientific ideas must be equally valid.

Utter nonsense. Contemptible tripe (not you Dale :D).

This shallow thinking shared by many people fails to understand what science is about. It is concerned with building ideas, developing knowledge about everything, from the quanta of the photon to the origin of the universe (or multi-verse). That knowledge is like a library which grows larger every year. Now and then a new finding requires a few - only a few, books to be put aside.

For example, Sir Isaac Newton is still regarded as the Father of modern physics and his Principia the foundation. His classical model still works for 99% of everything you and I need to know. Indeed an even earlier chap, Galileo Galilei's astronomical findings are still true today.

Albert Einstein however, along with Niels Bohr and Max Planck showed us the quantum world and the relationship between time, space, and gravity. It was a fundamental advance in physics and if you are involved with computing or transmitting to satellites has real world effects.

Newton wasn't pushed out the back door. Instead Einstein advanced our knowledge to a deeper level.

My point, laboured as it has become, is that science does not routinely trash previous research. Instead its a continual fine-tuning of what we know - and what we don't know.

By all means give examples if you disagree.

Finally if I'm a bit gruff tonight its because I'm shocked by the earthquake in Japan. My wife is again on Civil Defence alert all night having already spent 2 weeks away helping CD in Christchurch.

and yet the experts can't, or won't predict quakes... classic... what did Einstein do for a living? :facepalm:...

You have completely lost me here. Einstein was a patent office clerk and a theoretical physicist.

mashman

11th March 2011, 22:30

Yeah, but I'm getting a little tired of this. You are repeating one of those New Age mantras which is glib but seldom examined. The common wisdom is "science cannot be relied upon because next year there will be a new theory". Ergo science is a crock and non-scientific ideas must be equally valid.

Utter nonsense. Contemptible tripe (not you Dale :D).

This shallow thinking shared by many people fails to understand what science is about. It is concerned with building ideas, developing knowledge about everything, from the quanta of the photon to the origin of the universe (or multi-verse). That knowledge is like a library which grows larger every year. Now and then a new finding requires a few - only a few, books to be put aside.

For example, Sir Isaac Newton is still regarded as the Father of modern physics and his Principia the foundation. His classical model still works for 99% of everything you and I need to know. Indeed an even earlier chap, Galileo Galilei's astronomical findings are still true today.

Albert Einstein however, along with Niels Bohr and Max Planck showed us the quantum world and the relationship between time, space, and gravity. It was a fundamental advance in physics and if you are involved with computing or transmitting to satellites has real world effects.

Newton wasn't pushed out the back door. Instead Einstein advanced our knowledge to a deeper level.

My point, laboured as it has become, is that science does not routinely trash previous research. Instead its a continual fine-tuning of what we know - and what we don't know.

I don't think anyone's truly trashing science and scientific knowledge here. I'm sure it looks that way to some, but acknowledging that our scientific history isn't perfect, and then shitting on a theory that looks like it has some form of logic to it, smacks of a double standard. So we'll bring out the AGW analogies, or the constant tweakings/"failures" of science from years gone by in an attempt to highlight that science isn't perfect. That may well look like science is taking a kickin, but i'd say it was quite the opposite.

To a certain extent it would seem that if you're not an expert, then you know next to feck all about feck all and you should just go back to your worm farm or patent office. The guy is giving earthquake prediction a crack, and although not perfect, he's getting some "results", something I've not seen from the expert community...

You have completely lost me here. Einstein was a patent office clerk and a theoretical physicist.

It was in response to the Entomologist crack that was made. I took it as, because he's no expert, how the hell can he be taken seriously... Einstein wasn't an expert until others figured out what he was talking about.

Winston001

11th March 2011, 23:20

There may well be unexplained forces acting upon the earth that may or may not influence world events etc and this line of thought is shared by many.

Just because Ken Ring is our most vocal proponent and his claims are lacking any apparent accuracy or substance, I think it would be unwise to disregard the theory completely.

Something is going on out there and it does seem to have cyclical influences on our planet, it is best to keep an open mind until there is a clearer explanation!

Even with all the resources at their disposal our "official" world academic experts have yet to come up with the answers, so until someone does, all bets are still on!

Now John, not picking on you but can't let this pass.

Unexplained forces and influences - (sigh) we've been studying gravity ever since Newton - 300 years. We are so clever today that we an measure minute differences in gravity on the planets surface and gravimtry sensing is used for oil exploration.

We can measure the moons gravitational pull, and the sun, and Jupiter etc etc. None of these objects (Earth included) travel in circles - instead they trace ellipses meaning the gravitational attraction ebbs and wanes in small increments. But there is nothing unexplained or unknown.

What else...? Magma movements under the Earth's crust. Funnily enough, being 40km deep, this stuff isn't easy to watch and even when its close to the surface as with New Zealand and Japan, we aren't yet clever enough to read it and predict. The crust itself along the plate edges crumbles and heaves but very sloowwly.

Enough. I don't believe there are mysterious forces at work. The universe is vast, we don't know everything, but vague unseen influences need vigorous definition before they can ever be considered seriously.

Shadows

12th March 2011, 00:08

So where the fuck was Ken Ring and his mates on the one that hit Japan last night? Only the 7th biggest quake ever recorded.
One of these fuckwits http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm "predicted" a 4.1 - 6.1 magnitude there just outside their 3 day window... they'll take that as a win and 75% accurate on magnitude when in actual fact it was 10,000 times stronger than the mid range number they "predicted".
Japan gets quakes within that "predicted" magnitude range all the time, see here - http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php - but 8.9 is the strongest they have ever recorded.
I'll take that as scientific evidence that all these guys' theories and so called records of accuracy aren't worth wiping my arse on the paper they're written on.

imdying

12th March 2011, 09:17

There may well be unexplained forces acting upon the earth that may or may not influence world events etc and this line of thought is shared by many.Indeed, that will definitely be the case, and we'll figure out more of them as we go along. However, that only reinforces my belief that Ken Ring couldn't predict even his next bowel movement. The moon may indeed have an influence on the movment of tectonic plates, but there is no way of translating that into predicting earthquakes, and thus he is just scaring the public without just cause. Given that, I would happily plunge a 12" serrated blade into his chest and leave it at that. As far as I'm concerned his is a public enemy.

mashman

31st March 2011, 23:43

Some rather cool space events... related? I do wonder

Tuesday 29th (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/Back_blast_COR2_sm.mpg) - massive blast from the backside of the sun...

Wednesday 30th (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxCS6D-QxII) - the magnetosphere goes potty. (this may well be a common phenomena, but I haven't been able to find any other occurences)

Anyone know where ELENIN is approaching from? I'm looking forwards to this, as well as not so, who knows what's gonna happen (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsFhHmoK_d8&feature=player_embedded)

Winston001

1st April 2011, 05:41

The comet Elenin will pass Earth at .23 AU which is about 34 million kilometres off target. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

mashman

1st April 2011, 08:09

The comet Elenin will pass Earth at .23 AU which is about 34 million kilometres off target. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

That should be something quite spectacular to see. I'm surprised NASA doesn't have more information on the Comet, they're usually chomping at the bit, and indeed on at least 1 page on the NASA site sent me to your wiki link... I suppose they only found it a few months ago.

Winston001

2nd April 2011, 02:27

That should be something quite spectacular to see. I'm surprised NASA doesn't have more information on the Comet, they're usually chomping at the bit, and indeed on at least 1 page on the NASA site sent me to your wiki link... I suppose they only found it a few months ago.

Well Yes. Leonid Elenin discovered the comet on 11 December 2011 at a New Mexico observatory - which is only 3 months ago.

There are 3648 known comets which is only a fraction of the total number. Comets are balls of ice, rock, and dust leftover from the early solar system. They live in the Oort Cloud which is held by the Sun's gravity and some fall in a parabolic trajectory around the Sun from time to time.

Of much greater risk to Earth are the NEOs - asteroids - which are dark and cannot be seen. They are much too close for the major telescopes to see so they are discovered and tracked by amateur astronomers.

There are at least 15 mapping organisations such as NASA and Harvard - here, you'll like this - Killer Asteroid search - http://www.killerasteroidproject.org/

mashman

15th May 2011, 15:33

Short read... (http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1104/1104.2036.pdf) and this guy "proves" that Elenin has been having an affect on earthquake activity since 1965, and that planetary alignments are the cause of large earthquakes... I gotta say, he theory makes sense... as far as I can follow it that is and given the variables he has.