Future Disruption

[Viking01]

Stanford University futurist Tony Seba has spent the last decades studying technological
disruptions. He argues that the electric Vehicle, battery storage and solar power, along
with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process that will
wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&t=93s&list=FLiUwiBc_bp0xCGnsJ2LL2Tg&index=4

Food for thought.

And while the impacts upon the car industry are clearly visible, what about the motorcycle
industry ?

[EJK]

Can't say for sure but MotoGP is looking into electric bike racing. There's definitely something going on.

[Laava]

How will we power the ever growing fleet of planes as we phase out fossil fuels? And what is being done about the pollution they create unchecked?
Sorry, rhetorical questions, we already know the answers I am sure...

[Laava]

Can't say for sure but MotoGP is looking into electric bike racing. There's definitely something going on.

I look forward to a test ride on an emotobike!

[Voltaire]

I was promised the future a long time ago and still waiting....

https://i0.wp.com/media2.slashfilm.com/slashfilm/wp/wp-content/images/The-Jetsons-movie.jpg

I did have one of these about 1976 though...:laugh:

http://www.timetrafficker.com/watches/led/texas-instruments-500-black/photos/DSC_7460%20(150x150).jpg

and in 1978 about $300...

http://www.datamath.org/Sci/MAJESTIC/IMAGES/ti-55.jpg

Facebook seems to prove the internet does not make you smarter.

[jellywrestler]

Stanford University futurist Tony Seba has spent the last decades studying technological
disruptions. He argues that the electric Vehicle, battery storage and solar power, along
with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process that will
wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&t=93s&list=FLiUwiBc_bp0xCGnsJ2LL2Tg&index=4

Food for thought.

And while the impacts upon the car industry are clearly visible, what about the motorcycle
industry ?

i'm a sparky and install power points for these electric cars, the power networks will need to be quadrupled to cope with widespread charging requirements, the mind boggles at the way they're going to tackle that alone

[Laava]

i'm a sparky and install power points for these electric cars, the power networks will need to be quadrupled to cope with widespread charging requirements, the mind boggles at the way they're going to tackle that alone

Just on that, is it accepted to have the charging outlet wired to the HWC circuit to get the cheap nighttime controlled rate?

[TheDemonLord]

The moment I can recharge an Electric car in around 5 minutes - I will seriously consider switching

[Rhys]

The moment I can recharge an Electric car in around 5 minutes - I will seriously consider switching
Why do you need to charge in 5 minutes? You have a gas station in your house, so you have a full tank every morning!
Increase in range would be good and as they are doubling range every 5 years the time for EV's is near

[Laava]

The moment I can recharge an Electric car in around 5 minutes - I will seriously consider switching

When you are a retiree who never outdrives your bladder or drives at night, an EV will make perfect sense. So I was told in the weekend!

[TheDemonLord]

Why do you need to charge in 5 minutes? You have a gas station in your house, so you have a full tank every morning!
Increase in range would be good and as they are doubling range every 5 years the time for EV's is near

You ever forgot to put your Smartphone on charge before you go to bed?

With Petrol if I do that, no biggy, pull in, fill up, drive on.

[Woodman]

You ever forgot to put your Smartphone on charge before you go to bed?

With Petrol if I do that, no biggy, pull in, fill up, drive on.

What makes you think you will have your own car? Uber with autonomous evs are ready to join forces.

[TheDemonLord]

What makes you think you will have your own car? Uber with autonomous evs are ready to join forces.

Cause I like to drive!

[jellywrestler]

Just on that, is it accepted to have the charging outlet wired to the HWC circuit to get the cheap nighttime controlled rate?

won't be hw feed it'll be a night store, issue is if you come home and want to go out again, although theres no reason not to have a changeover switch. last one i put in was 22 kw which is ten times a hot water element give or take a little, as mentioned our infrastructure will not take it

[Grumph]

When you are a retiree who never outdrives your bladder or drives at night, an EV will make perfect sense. So I was told in the weekend!

This is dead right as a lot of you will discover....But if you live rural, as i do, I'm confidently expecting to have to get used to running a horse and cart in the fairly near future....




won't be hw feed it'll be a night store, issue is if you come home and want to go out again, although theres no reason not to have a changeover switch. last one i put in was 22 kw which is ten times a hot water element give or take a little, as mentioned our infrastructure will not take it

Shit, I hadn't realised they drew quite that much. In a previous career, we installed the occasional industrial size night store drawing about that much - and it caused problems then.
And fewer companies are offering night rate power now as well. With this much potential draw coming I doubt if any will be prepared to offer it.

[Laava]

This is dead right as a lot of you will discover....But if you live rural, as i do, I'm confidently expecting to have to get used to running a horse and cart in the fairly near future....

Pfft, that'll never catch on!

[bistard]

won't be hw feed it'll be a night store, issue is if you come home and want to go out again, although theres no reason not to have a changeover switch. last one i put in was 22 kw which is ten times a hot water element give or take a little, as mentioned our infrastructure will not take it

Holey Shit, so whats that going to do to your already horrendously expensive power bill??

[jellywrestler]

Holey Shit, so whats that going to do to your already horrendously expensive power bill??

it's about speed of charging, this one was future proofing as the geek had looked ahead for his next car.

[jellywrestler]

I'm confidently expecting to have to get used to running a horse and cart in the fairly near future....





you'd still have the one you used to use tucked away wouldn't ya? the horse might be a tad old though

[Akzle]

https://longtailpipe.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DIY-PHEV-GadgetReview.jpg

[Cosmik de Bris]

i'm a sparky and install power points for these electric cars, the power networks will need to be quadrupled to cope with widespread charging requirements, the mind boggles at the way they're going to tackle that alone

Not only distribution but generation as well. NZ is 80% renewable but to service a large number of electric vehicles some of the old coal stations will have to be brought back online, either that or huge expenditure on what? We could go nuclear or build new thermal plants, not cheap whichever you choose.

Cheers

[Cosmik de Bris]

https://longtailpipe.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DIY-PHEV-GadgetReview.jpg

:-) very good.

Cheers

[Akzle]

Not only distribution but generation as well. NZ is 80% renewable but to service a large number of electric vehicles some of the old coal stations will have to be brought back online, either that or huge expenditure on what? We could go nuclear or build new thermal plants, not cheap whichever you choose.

Cheers

and then there's baws line losses to the auckland cos they have 240VAC dildos and shit.
Microgeneration yo. ever neighbourhood should have a box of batteries (liek, at a telephone exchange <_< ) and every new build should be required to produce 120% of it's electricity requirement. but, y'know. publi-private "partnerships" (rent back what you paid to build), jews and profit and shit.

vote akzle.

[Akzle]

You ever forgot to put your Smartphone on charge before you go to bed?
on.
My batery lasts 3-4 days. and i can have as many charged spares as i like and swap them out.
ahh, progress!

[eldog]

Surely this is a matter of using a Fermi Equation

It is a matter of energy and its use
using rough approximations and intelligent (cassina not need apply) estimates we could work out how much electricity would be needed
(surprised Husaberg hasn't done it already, but feel free to chip in)

We know what amount of petrol for instance is consumed in NZ (fuel volume)
If we assumed 90% is used in cars for transport
and that cars are approximately 80% efficient
would could work out how much energy we used for this.

I would agree with Jellywrestler - we probably don't have enough generation currently

We have gas, hydro, wind, coal, solar and wave options for generating electricity
We know public opinion is against coal
If we were to assume that the total amount of generation of electricity is known
We would need to assume that thermal (coal/gas) would be about 75% or less of rated output (standby and maintenance)
Wind is dependant on, well wind
Solar - on the Sun

If someone where able to find this out we could give a reasonable estimate on the actual available electrical energy
This is forgetting those plants like Fonterra who may use coal or gas for boilers etc and Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter, NZ Steel etc

If we said there is only a very small existing vehicle base using electricity,
we could assume current generation is meeting the existing consumer base
New electric vehicles would be an added load from the demise of petrol (or just new ones)

If we said electrical transmission was approx. 90% efficient would would be close
We know electric motors are about 90% efficient (I need to check this)

Maybe a bit rambling and I need to work on it a lot more

but I think the basis is there for a good estimate of what we need.
This is just from the top of my head


Its the sort of load questions always put forward to electrical engineers, about how social change can change demand/load.
In the 80's it was things like spa pools, 2000's heat pumps and the rise of use of computers and large TVs (their power draw is far less)

and if you live in the boonies (like some on here, expect transmission costs to rise)

[Akzle]

If we assumed 90% is used in cars for transport
and that cars are approximately 80% efficient
more like 60%.*




*on a good day, not fuckwits sitting in traffic for 3hours a a day.
there was actually a study done about this, with the whole inertia and start-stopping 2 tonnes thing. no real surprises in it. cars are shit, and townies with cars are shittest.


If we said electrical transmission was approx. 90% efficient would would be close

more like 70%

[Voltaire]

more like 60%.*




*on a good day, not fuckwits sitting in traffic for 3hours a a day.
there was actually a study done about this, with the whole inertia and start-stopping 2 tonnes thing. no real surprises in it. cars are shit, and townies with cars are shittest.

more like 70%

*Wow 5999 ( mostly drivel) posts on KB....I'd rather sit in Auckland traffic for a week than read them,sadly my Auckland commute is only 40 minutes return..... death style blocks in the wops :woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

[Madness]

*Wow 5999 ( mostly drivel) posts on KB...

You got smog in your eyes bro?

[OddDuck]

Possibilities...

Increase efficiency, both the network and end users - insulate homes, go to bigger conductors on trunk transmission lines, more efficient transmission transformers, widespread switchover to LED lighting, better insulated fridges and freezers etc etc

Work out a technical solution to scheduling charging overnight - currently one of the major problems with NZ electrical distribution is the massive loading that happens around 6pm when the lights and the stove go on, if the charging loading can be 'booked in' for the wee small hours then peaks can be flattened out instead of having a second peak demand around 8 to 10 pm

Link charging demand to surplus wind turbine generation, currently dumping surplus power from the wind turbines is something of an issue

Increase generation, particularly local / rural - follow the German model and kickstart an entire industry by passing laws requiring line companies pay small power generators 3x the cost of drawing electricity

Decentralise manufacturing / industry / commerce etc and spread out a bit more, reducing net commutes... honestly are we doing all this so more people can get stuck in traffic in Auckland?

More generation through more wind turbines and possibly more tidal or current turbines installed in harbour mouths or high flow passages like Cook Strait etc

More generation through solar in sunny places like Gisborne or far north

... there's a lot of things we can do, I guess it comes down to the vision and the will to make it happen.

[Grumph]

and if you live in the boonies (like some on here, expect transmission costs to rise)

Hey. watch it, Lake Coleridge is about 20 minutes up the road - and one of the two major substations in Canterbury is 1 1/2km the other way...
When they perfect power transmission and receipt by tapping the emitted energy, I could probably just park across the road.
It's already rumoured that the sheep run in the substation grounds, glow in the dark....

[Oakie]

How will we power the ever growing fleet of planes as we phase out fossil fuels? And what is being done about the pollution they create unchecked?

Funny. There was an article on the news just last night about someone working on creating an electric passenger plane. True story!

[ellipsis]

...30 years back our little town had a street light...now it's got at least 5...:wari:...

[BMWST?]

the thermal efficiency of an IC engine is pathetic its only around 20 percent,diesels can be 40 percent.Very modern petrol engines are better, some say up to 40 percent

[eldog]

...30 years back our little town had a street light...now it's got at least 5...:wari:...


Funny. There was an article on the news just last night about someone working on creating an electric passenger plane. True story!


Hey. watch it, Lake Coleridge is about 20 minutes up the road - and one of the two major substations in Canterbury is 1 1/2km the other way...
When they perfect power transmission and receipt by tapping the emitted energy, I could probably just park across the road.
It's already rumoured that the sheep run in the substation grounds, glow in the dark....


the thermal efficiency of an IC engine is pathetic its only around 20 percent,diesels can be 40 percent.Very modern petrol engines are better, some say up to 40 percent ....



well that's the Sth Island for you :sweatdrop

From memory the most expensive LV power was always right next to the power station

There was a program on recently about Tesla's power transmitter - cant remember if it was 'Abandoned Engineering Structures'?

[Woodman]

well that's the Sth Island for you :sweatdrop

From memory the most expensive LV power was always right next to the power station

There was a program on recently about Tesla's power transmitter - cant remember if it was 'Abandoned Engineering Structures'?

Please don't mention Teslas power transmitter. You will wake up the resident conspiracy fuckwits.

[eldog]

Please don't mention Teslas power transmitter. You will wake up the resident conspiracy fuckwits.

We got one on the go on another thread. Party time:drinkup:

[Laava]

Please don't mention Teslas power transmitter. You will wake up the resident conspiracy fuckwits.

I know what you mean...my mate was telling me about his mates electric car (brand unimportant in this case!) that uses regenerative energy to recharge the batteries and is so efficient that it is putting out more power than it needs to complete it's journey! But he is reluctant to tell too many people cos he's heard of people going "missing" in similar circumstances! I'm gonna wait till he's pissed and get him to explain it to me again and I'll video it!

[jellywrestler]

...30 years back our little town had a street light...now it's got at least 5...:wari:...

yeah but they'll be led and five will use half what the old one did...

[jellywrestler]

It's already rumoured that the sheep run in the substation grounds, glow in the dark....

That's the ones they're pimping out, marketing ploy, and so the locals know what sheep is the best fuck

[Grumph]

There was a program on recently about Tesla's power transmitter - cant remember if it was 'Abandoned Engineering Structures'?

Yeah, it was. But what I was referring to was on a news item some time back where you simply drove your EV into a dock where it received a charge from radiating elements in the floor. No physical connection. Gawd knows what the power requirements are to drive that....#

Oh and the street light in Ellipsis's town would have been an oil light originally - so besides the current ones using less power as Jelly so rightly says - there's one less job in the town as well...

# or, on thinking about it, what would happen to anything organic that got in the way.....

[mashman]

Please don't mention Teslas power transmitter. You will wake up the resident conspiracy fuckwits.

A couple of these (https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/gigafactory) and a fuckload of these (https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/powerwall) perhaps :bleh:

[Woodman]

A couple of these (https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/gigafactory) and a fuckload of these (https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/powerwall) perhaps :bleh:

What have those links got to do with Tesla (the original guy not a branding exercise) claiming he could transmit electricity across the continent wirelessly?

[R650R]

Brace yourself, I recently happened across how the neo liberal greenie socialist dictators reckon its going to work.

You WILL ALWAYS have your vehicle plugged into a charging dock when not in use at home, work or town. This will be LAW and you will be an infrastructure terrorist outlaw if you refuse to comply.
While your vehicle is plugged into the charging dock, once fully charged or deemed by authorities to have 'enough' power it will bleed power back out to charge other nearby units if the grid cant keep up.
There will be a social media campaign to liken non compliant users to the same selfishness as parking in handicaop spacers.
Your smart meter will detect that your car is at home and start switching off/denying you your other appliances until you plug the car in. Also the authorities will determine what you run via smart meter during peak grid loading times. Non essential use such as computer, games macvhines, tv's etc will be remotely switched off to limit demand.

Never mind that in NZ only about 65% of our energy is hydro, rest is coal/oil/gas burning. Wind is a net loss enviromentally if you factor in the power stations pooled up wasting power capacity to balance grid incase wind drops (you cant just suddenly run out of electricity, it damages the distribution infrastructure with sudden load changes). And then theres all the construction and maintainance activity, limited lifespans compared to other generation sources, many turbines are failing after 15 years service. Also turbine gearboxes have anywhere from 60-400L of transmission oil in them and the oil is at limits of technology dealing with massive shear loadings.

Anyhow the worlds biggest superpower will still need oil, the US military is the single biggest user outright. And when you absolutely,positively have to invade some beaten up third world dictatorship (that probably doesnt have a functional electric network) you are going to invade and stop halfway to recharge.

Petroleum products are a stable transferable energy item able to be moved in bulk fast to where its needed anywhere in the world at short notice. I think its a pipe dream sic to think its will be toatlly gone. There are also other by products distilled during refining that are needed for plastics and other industrys too. Not to mention the left over gunk that gets put on our roads and made into bunker fuel for ships.....

[Akzle]

What have those links got to do with Tesla (the original guy not a branding exercise) claiming he could transmit electricity across the continent wirelessly?

that would be a tesla coil.
main problem is the current requirements. the place is wired for lvac. and it's hvac. and it would ionise the atmosphere like a motherfucker.

there's also the whole "randomly arcing to ground through, like, people and shit" problem to be overcome.

[mashman]

What have those links got to do with Tesla (the original guy not a branding exercise) claiming he could transmit electricity across the continent wirelessly?

Nothing, other than power generation, hence the tongue emoji thingymajig.

[Akzle]

Brace yourself, I recently happened across how the neo liberal greenie socialist dictators reckon its going to work.

You WILL ALWAYS have your vehicle plugged into a charging dock when not in use at home, work or town. This will be LAW and you will be an infrastructure terrorist outlaw if you refuse to comply.
While your vehicle is plugged into the charging dock, once fully charged or deemed by authorities to have 'enough' power it will bleed power back out to charge other nearby units if the grid cant keep up.
There will be a social media campaign to liken non compliant users to the same selfishness as parking in handicaop spacers.
Your smart meter will detect that your car is at home and start switching off/denying you your other appliances until you plug the car in. Also the authorities will determine what you run via smart meter during peak grid loading times. Non essential use such as computer, games macvhines, tv's etc will be remotely switched off to limit demand.

Never mind that in NZ only about 65% of our energy is hydro, rest is coal/oil/gas burning. Wind is a net loss enviromentally if you factor in the power stations pooled up wasting power capacity to balance grid incase wind drops (you cant just suddenly run out of electricity, it damages the distribution infrastructure with sudden load changes). And then theres all the construction and maintainance activity, limited lifespans compared to other generation sources, many turbines are failing after 15 years service. Also turbine gearboxes have anywhere from 60-400L of transmission oil in them and the oil is at limits of technology dealing with massive shear loadings.
.....

buy my magna bro

[James Deuce]

Autonomous vehicles spell the end of motorcycles. Electric bikes are evil.

[James Deuce]

that would be a tesla coil.

there's also the whole "randomly arcing to ground through, like, people and shit" problem to be overcome.
David Attenborough would call that a solution to the population problem. That widely revered little motherfucker is a closet genocide fan.

[Dadpole]

David Attenborough would call that a solution to the population problem. That widely revered little motherfucker is a closet genocide fan.

And this is wrong how?

[James Deuce]

And this is wrong how?
You and your '70s farm bike are on the list.

[Viking01]

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/russian-crypto-bond-begins-all-new-era-global-finance/ri21165

[R650R]

buy my magna bro

been there done that, had a 93 Aussie built V3000 5 seed manual sedan. Was a bloody good car

[R650R]

Autonomous vehicles spell the end of motorcycles. Electric bikes are evil.

Just imagine the hysteria about the harm to planet earth when a car autonomous or not runs over an electric bike rupturing the fuel cell.

In a car vs car it would be mostly contained or protected... but just imagine a 20,000AH Lithium fuel cell getting squished on a rainy day....

[Akzle]

been there done that, had a 93 Aussie built V3000 5 seed manual sedan. Was a bloody good car

yeah. had a couple of the old mot magpies myself. the 6g fucken fangs. better with a turbo. shame they were fwd.

[TheDemonLord]

Just imagine the hysteria about the harm to planet earth when a car autonomous or not runs over an electric bike rupturing the fuel cell.

In a car vs car it would be mostly contained or protected... but just imagine a 20,000AH Lithium fuel cell getting squished on a rainy day....

If only Mythbusters was still going - that'd be great for it!

[oldrider]

been there done that, had a 93 Aussie built V3000 5 seed manual sedan. Was a bloody good car

I had one of those - did about 90,000Km in it!

It was a really fast car, hard on tyres if you were slightly heavy with the foot but as responsive a car that I have owned.

Never ever had it flat out, there always seemed to be a little bit left to go before you ran out of (special off road track) everything! :rolleyes: