Bird Flu Bollocks

[Flatcap]

Got home today to find a nice note from our comrades at the Ministry of Health informing me how to avoid dying from the bird flu. I have a few questions:

1. How likely are we to die given about 50 people in the world have succumed? This hasn't even been transferred between people!
2. Shouldn't I been more concerned about catching the normal flu given this kills more people in NZ?
3. Isn't this just a hill of shite along the same lines as Y2K.

I for one am going to take no notice of the Nanny Sate until people start dropping like flies

What say you lot? Have you started building your bunkers yet?

[Madness]

She sneezes all the time. Never once been to the vet.
Load of paranoia, like Y2K I reckon.

Ahchooooooooo!!!!!!
:sick: :sick: :sick: :sick: :sick:

[jonbuoy]

Y2K was hyped up - planes were never going to fall out of the sky on the stroke of 12. Maybe get lost and run out of fuel and then fall out of the sky, a few GPS navigators couldn't cope with it and other time/date related stuff. But half the reason why it wasn't a problem was because it WAS so hyped up. Everyone checked simulated a Y2K rollover to see what would happen in advance. Same thing with the bird flu - yeah its all hyped up but the thoughts there in the back of everyones mind. And if it does turn into a pandemic at least we've started work on a vacine.

Me - I got my drums of water, tins of beans and shotgun loaded to fend of all you flu infected scavengers poaching my supplies!!

[Madness]

Me - I got my drums of water, tins of beans and shotgun loaded to fend of all you flu infected scavengers poaching my supplies!!

I dont even want your stinkin beans anyway!!!!
:doobey: :doobey: :doobey: :doobey: :doobey: :doobey:

[StoneChucker]

Y2K was hyped up - planes were never going to fall out of the sky on the stroke of 12. Maybe get lost and run out of fuel and then fall out of the sky, a few GPS navigators couldn't cope with it and other time/date related stuff. But half the reason why it wasn't a problem was because it WAS so hyped up. Everyone checked simulated a Y2K rollover to see what would happen in advance. Same thing with the bird flu - yeah its all hyped up but the thoughts there in the back of everyones mind. And if it does turn into a pandemic at least we've started work on a vacine.

Me - I got my drums of water, tins of beans and shotgun loaded to fend of all you flu infected scavengers poaching my supplies!!
:stupid: This guy has the right idea. I've also started getting ready for IF/when it comes. I need to reasearch what one would keep (like a list of emergency items), and go out and get them. I have my first defence, still need to get the survival/emergency kit (good for earthquakes/hurricanes too), and hopefully at some stage get my mits on some Tamiflu. Even though many say it won't be effective, I wouldn't mind some anyway.

[mini_me]

And if it does turn into a pandemic at least we've started work on a vacine.

yeah, but did you see in the paper about that egyptian women who died, after being treated with tamiflu

m/m

[The Stranger]

Y2K was hyped up - planes were never going to fall out of the sky on the stroke of 12.

This issue was over hyped by the press.

For example we had the Harrold quoting authoritatively on the front page from a guy whose qualification was listed as, and I quote, "a frequent Internet user"

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good storey.

[Skyryder]

I watched THE PLAGUE on the History channel the other day. That was scary. Hate to imagine what would happen here if a simular plague hit. Viruologists say a major plague is not if but when. Been saying that for a long time....................but when is how far into the future??

Skyryder

[Winston001]

My wife is involved with flu planning and can't understand why I'm not worried. Frankly its too big. There are prognostications of a 50% mortality rate among normal adults (who are infected - not 50% of everyone).

If that turns out to be true then Western civilisation would be set back 100 years and there is damned all we can do.

We live in a much different society to 1919. Medicine is lightyears better, we don't share our homes, and at least here in NZ we have easily sealed borders. The virus would run its course and the survivors would wobble on.

Easy to say but I have 3 young children and aged parents. Better not to think about it.

[Scorpygirl]

She sneezes all the time. Never once been to the vet.
Load of paranoia, like Y2K I reckon.

Ahchooooooooo!!!!!!
:sick: :sick: :sick: :sick: :sick:

I am with you all the way mate. We have a Conure (sans feathers) and two budgies. We ain't leaving!!! :Pokey: Will sneeze and cough all the way!!! :banana: Yeah Right!!! I will lay down and die with my birds!

[Sutage]

yeah its all well and good saying ill care when it happens
what if you or your family get it first?
then youd feel like an idiot huh?
can i print your post onto your tombstone

[Scorpygirl]

yeah its all well and good saying ill care when it happens
what if you or your family get it first?
then youd feel like an idiot huh?
can i print your post onto your tombstone

Yes you can Sutage... Be my guest!!!! :spudflip:

PS. Don't cat and dog lovers have their day too!!!

[Pixie]

Bird Flu Bollocks...
Is what they make Mcnuggets from

[Pixie]

yeah its all well and good saying ill care when it happens
what if you or your family get it first?
then youd feel like an idiot huh?
can i print your post onto your tombstone
The Dead never feel like idiots

[Dadpole]

Always pays to be prepared. I am ready to kill all the neighbours to establish a flu-free zone.
Some of the Y2K hype came true in my town. A number of people woke up to find the water system didn't work. I know this because I turned off their water at the Toby on my (drunken) way home from an "end of the world" party.

[Shadows]

Its all scaremongering by Pfizer (was it) to sell shitloads of Tamiflu and make their shareholders rich.

[Flatcap]

yeah its all well and good saying ill care when it happens
what if you or your family get it first?
then youd feel like an idiot huh?
can i print your post onto your tombstone


Why would I feel like and idiot? You can still get the flu even if you buy bottled water and canned food. The simple fact is that if there is a huge epidemic (very unlikely) there is bugger all you can do about it.

This mailout of info is another Nanny State inspired waste of taxpayer money

[MisterD]

This mailout of info is another Nanny State inspired waste of taxpayer money

Yup. Just spending our money, so when it happens (may it be ten thousand years) they can say "We told you so, don't come crying to us now!"

[Sparky Mark]

Why would I feel like and idiot? You can still get the flu even if you buy bottled water and canned food. The simple fact is that if there is a huge epidemic (very unlikely) there is bugger all you can do about it.

This mailout of info is another Nanny State inspired waste of taxpayer money


I disagree. The normal flu doesn't KILL you unless you are elderly or very young, even then the risk is low. Therefore the impact of having it is normally acceptable for a healthy person.
Contracting bird flu makes that risk of you dying from it significantly higher. This now increases the impact on society in general to an unacceptable level.

If one of your family contracted bird flu and was at risk of dying, also because of this the rest of your family including yourself was also at risk of dying, what would you do? Sit there and accept it? or quarantine that person, ensure they have least contact as possible with the unit and follow the guidlines of the government, who have research evidence which these are based on?

I know what I'd do. I don't think this is a waste of Taxpayers money because if nothing else it's promoting debate in society and raising awareness. I'd much rather, if it came, that people knew what it was and had at least something they could to to try and stem it!

:done:

[Goblin]

Its all scaremongering by Pfizer (was it) to sell shitloads of Tamiflu and make their shareholders rich.

Totally agree!:doctor: Aids kills more people than birdflu so I wonder how Durex shareholders are doing.

With the world getting so over-populated it might be just natures way of culling.

[Flatcap]

The normal flu doesn't KILL you unless you are elderly or very young, even then the risk is low. Therefore the impact of having it is normally acceptable for a healthy person.
Contracting bird flu makes that risk of you dying from it significantly higher. This now increases the impact on society in general to an unacceptable level.

If one of your family contracted bird flu and was at risk of dying, also because of this the rest of your family including yourself was also at risk of dying, what would you do? Sit there and accept it? or quarantine that person, ensure they have least contact as possible with the unit and follow the guidlines of the government, who have research evidence which these are based on?

I know what I'd do. I don't think this is a waste of Taxpayers money because if nothing else it's promoting debate in society and raising awareness. I'd much rather, if it came, that people knew what it was and had at least something they could to to try and stem it!

:done:


At present the risk of dying from bird flu in NZ = zero.

If it is as bad as the scaremongers would have you believe, then our ability to contain it will also be zero.

I will believe it when I see it

[Stroker Girl]

I watched THE PLAGUE on the History channel the other day. That was scary. Hate to imagine what would happen here if a simular plague hit. Viruologists say a major plague is not if but when. Been saying that for a long time....................but when is how far into the future??

Skyryder

Talking of the plague, I was watching a show about a month ago called 'Body Snatchers' and a husband and wife in America got admitted to hospital and were diagnosed with Bubonic Plague! Aparently they caught the plague from rats which live in the desert where they go hiking :eek5: The wife made a full recovery but the husband is pretty messed up.

Pretty scarey stuff really.

[Sparky Mark]

Totally agree!:doctor: Aids kills more people than birdflu...

I totally agree, that is CURRENTLY the case. However bird flu IS killing people albeit a small number - Fact.
It IS spreading - Fact.
If it begins spreading between humans, we are all possibly in the shit - Tamiflu or not!

[Lou Girardin]

18,000,000 people died in 1918 of spanish flu, and they're telling us that we're just as helpless to fight a pandemic as they were?
It's just more sensationalist hype. Remember how AIDS was going to kill us all?

[Ixion]

Y'all dead of SARS yet. You're supposed to be.

Repent - it's the end of the world !

[hunt]

check out the World Health Organisation web site on bird flu, there's more happening out there than whats getting reported by the media, soon as 1 case happens in n.z there will be wide spread panic, i'd imagine utter kaos
at the supermarkets with people trying to stock up, i hope it wont happen,
theres no harm in having a little stock pile of supplies.

[idb]

It's getting so expensive to worry about these things.

I'm going to have to go down into my fallout shelter and clear a shelf of my Y2K and Sars emergency packs so that I can fit all of my Tamiflu and tissues.

By the way, I don't remember any "All Clear" announcements from the Government from nuclear winters, Y2K chaos or SARS epidemics.
I'm not chucking anything out until then but the shelter is getting a bit full.

[sunhuntin]

bollocks if ya ask me. any chance it does come here, and i do get it...im gettin on my bike buck naked and riding straight into something like a wall.

i dont listen to this kinda stuff....same with meningitis stuff....i was 20 when they started wanting to vaccinate us all....i decided against it. every winter mum and dad get the flu shots, they both get sick as a dog. i never have one, i get a cold here and there, but never anything worth taking time off for.

[Finn]

My god, it's here!!!

[Finn]

I've imported a significant quantity of the following tablets. Please send $100 (includes P&P) to:

Finn Enterprises
Private Bag 666
Cayman Islands

Stocks are limited so hurry!

[hunt]

bollocks if ya ask me. any chance it does come here, and i do get it...im gettin on my bike buck naked and riding straight into something like a wall.

i dont listen to this kinda stuff....same with meningitis stuff....i was 20 when they started wanting to vaccinate us all....i decided against it. every winter mum and dad get the flu shots, they both get sick as a dog. i never have one, i get a cold here and there, but never anything worth taking time off for.

i dont think giving uself a few bruises will cure it, an on coming truck should do the job tho:laugh:

[Ixion]

Guys, can I point out one very significant thing about the bird flu? To get it you MUST have contact with birds. The feathered sort. And close up prolonged contact, not just a seagull flying overhead.

Now, I dunno about all of you, but I'm willing to bet that 90% of you don't actually get surrounded by feathers even once a year.

Different in places like China, a vast percentage of the population are in close contact with birds - ducks, chickens etc.

When I was a boy, twas differnet too. Almost everybody kept chickens, and sure, when you went into the hen house to get the eggs, all sorts of feathery shitty crap got stirred up. Can well believe people catching stuff off it.

But who keeps chickens now ?

No bird contact = no risk. It is NOT spread from one human to another.

It's the end of the world - if you're a chicken farmer.

[Phurrball]

18,000,000 people died in 1918 of spanish flu, and they're telling us that we're just as helpless to fight a pandemic as they were?
It's just more sensationalist hype. Remember how AIDS was going to kill us all?

Yep - that many and there wasn't even air travel.


Guys, can I point out one very significant thing about the bird flu? To get it you MUST have contact with birds. The feathered sort. And close up prolonged contact, not just a seagull flying overhead.(snip)

No bird contact = no risk. It is NOT spread from one human to another.

(snip)

I quite agree Ixion...for now...


To the naysayers - there is scientific precedent that strains of the 'flu that have a high specificity for one species (birds - a natural influenza reservoir), and low specificity for another(humans) such as like H5N1 influenza, can fairly swiftly develop a high specificity for humans...

The 'flu virus is an RNA based virus, as such, there is no proofreading function when the virus' genetic material is replicated (unlike for DNA based viruses)...this leads errors creeping in over time and to genetic drift...which could be adventageous to the virus. This is also why HIV is hard to get on top of...genetic changes in its RNA genome mean it develops resistance to theraputic agants after a while...

Influenza is also interesting as it can undergo pseudorecombination. It has 8 genetic segments (from memory). Imagine 2 genetically different 'flu viruses infecting a host cell simultaneously. They both want all 8 segments, but don't care which ones. Just like shuffling a deck of cards. Abrakadabra! A new virus with all the virulence of H5N1 and high specificity for humans.

Naturally this sort of event is pretty rare, but there are 6 billion plus people on the planet, and strange things happen all the time...

In short, that rant could be summarised as 'it may very well happen'.

We find it all to easy to forget in this day and age just how mighty our microbial foes can be (Think Rod Donald; meningitis). Never discount the possibility...but don't get too paranoid either. After all...we have an immune system! (but that's a different lecture...)

(See, my BSc isn't wasted! It's found a use on KB!)

[Finn]

Guys, can I point out one very significant thing about the bird flu? To get it you MUST have contact with birds.

But Ixion, Love is much stronger...

[Ixion]

(snippy)
Influenza is also interesting as it can undergo pseudorecombination. It has 8 genetic segments (from memory). Imagine 2 genetically different 'flu viruses infecting a host cell simultaneously. They both want all 8 segments, but don't care which ones. Just like shuffling a deck of cards. Abrakadabra! A new virus with all the virulence of H5N1 and high specificity for humans.

Naturally this sort of event is pretty rare, but there are 6 billion plus people on the planet, and strange things happen all the time...

In short, that rant could be summarised as 'it may very well happen'.
(snippy snip)


Yep. And the Ebola virus MIGHT mutate to be specific to felines, and before you know it it's spread to pussy cats, and Tiddles is gonna kill you.

Anything MIGHT mutate into anything. Might. Odds are if it did, it would probably lose it's virulence, too.

The common cold MIGHT mutate into something that crosses the blood brain barrier, and we're all dead of meningitis.

Might.

[Jackrat]

Guys, can I point out one very significant thing about the bird flu? To get it you MUST have contact with birds. The feathered sort. And close up prolonged contact, not just a seagull flying overhead.

Now, I dunno about all of you, but I'm willing to bet that 90% of you don't actually get surrounded by feathers even once a year.

Different in places like China, a vast percentage of the population are in close contact with birds - ducks, chickens etc.

When I was a boy, twas differnet too. Almost everybody kept chickens, and sure, when you went into the hen house to get the eggs, all sorts of feathery shitty crap got stirred up. Can well believe people catching stuff off it.

But who keeps chickens now ?

No bird contact = no risk. It is NOT spread from one human to another.

It's the end of the world - if you're a chicken farmer.

Bugger,I'm doomed.
I shared a sandwich with a chook today.
Actualy I damn near get mobbed by 10 of the spoilt little shits everytime I go outside carrying anything even remotely edable.
Maybe this is my chance to talk the Mrs into letting me neck the lot of em' huh.
Or maybe not.
Bird flu,,,,yeah sure.

[Phurrball]

Yep. And the Ebola virus MIGHT mutate to be specific to felines, and before you know it it's spread to pussy cats, and Tiddles is gonna kill you.

Anything MIGHT mutate into anything. Might. Odds are if it did, it would probably lose it's virulence, too.(snip)

Ebola is self limiting because of its extreme virulence. Only adventageous mutations a propogated - you're quite right that most mutations are deleterious, but we never 'see' those...only the freak ones that are advantageous. They do happen.

Pseudorecombination isn't mutation - just genetic segment shuffling. Like many other things out there, it's a numbers game. I might bin the bike on the way home today too - I hope I don't, but it's a possibility, just like bird 'flu or the Big One in Wellington - the world is probably overdue for a decent 'flu pandemic...

[El Dopa]

the world is probably overdue for a decent 'flu pandemic...

Yep. Anyone who thinks 'it won't happen' should probably google something like '1918+worldwide+influenza+pandemic'.

That one killed more people worldwide than the first world war did. And it didn't help much that NZ's borders were far more 'sealable' than they are today.

That particular varient was H1N1 - 'similar to bird flu of today'. if it mutates to be as easily transmissible between humans as normal flu is, we're fucked.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The main reason for stockpiling foood and water, for all the people who think 'it isn't worth it' is because:

1) You'll have to care (or be cared for) your family at home. Hospitals will almost cetainly turn you away as they'll be overloaded.

2) Popping down the dairy for a few supplies won't be an option. Who's going to stock the shelves, drive the delivery truck, or pack the delivery truck at the warehouse? The people who are at home sick?

[Winston001]

Ebola is self limiting because of its extreme virulence. Only adventageous mutations a propogated - you're quite right that most mutations are deleterious, but we never 'see' those...only the freak ones that are advantageous. They do happen.

Pseudorecombination isn't mutation - just genetic segment shuffling. Like many other things out there, it's a numbers game. I might bin the bike on the way home today too - I hope I don't, but it's a possibility, just like bird 'flu or the Big One in Wellington - the world is probably overdue for a decent 'flu pandemic...

Good stuff. Ebola and Marburg were confined to monkeys. It jumped the species barrier to humans. There are at least 4 strains of Ebola and the virus is getting cleverer all the time. No-one has found the reservior yet but it is probably widely spread in pockets of monkey poulations in Africa.

AIDS is a virus. The earliest suspected case was in 1946. Currently this disease is ravaging Africans - just because it is relatively confined here don't make the mistake of thinking it isn't a real threat to millions of humans. It is already.

AIDS is suspected of moving from an animal host and jumping the species barrier. Viruses are good at this. Cats have had FIV (a form of AIDS) for about 1 million years. Interestingly they have adapted so it doesn't nescessarily kill them.

The point of all this is that the avian virus has jumped the species barrier already. Certainly at the moment you need close contact with birds but once the virus learns to vector to another human, it is all go.

We may not in a first world country have much to fear but the threat is genuine enough to at least think about.

[Drunken Monkey]

Might...might...might...might.

What do think caused previous pandemics? I can assure you the spanish flu and the plague didn't sit around dormant in humans twiddling its proverbial thumbs until it decided to become deadly one day. Species jumping is more likely than you think.

[Hitcher]

I wish media et al would desist from confusing people about Avian flu (what kills birds) and pandemic flu (what kills people).

There is a variety of forms of Avian flu too. H5N1 is the variety that people are obsessing about at the moment. There is a highly pathogenic form (the one we haven't got) and a low pathogenic form (that we do have, but which isn't that common). There are also other strains of bird flu that pop up hither and yon from time to time. Generally the people who suffer from this have some sort of close and intimate involvement with bird shit -- especially duck shit. Hopefully few KBers meet this criteria for infection...

Much of the concern about the impacts of pandemic influenza are speculative -- based on the knowledge that the 1918 pandemic originated as a bird flu. This includes the estimated death rate (at about 90,000 for New Zealand), but there is no evidence that if this latest bird flu successfully morphed to affect humans that it would be any more modbid than a normal winter flu.

Also most people call colds "flu" anyway. Convincing them otherwise is a waste of time. Sigh.

[Matt Bleck]

If it was gunna mutate to spred from human to human it would have by now...

Oh and if you eat a bird that has bird flu, then won't you catch birdflu Ixion??

[Ixion]

No. It is not spread by ingestion. Or, at any rate, ingestion of cooked flesh, and I've never heard of anyone eating raw bird meat.

[Finn]

I've never heard of anyone eating raw bird meat.

Haven't you ever :bleh: a lady Ixion?

[Ixion]

Well, yeah , but I make sure that they're always good and hot first.

[Flatcap]

Haven't you ever :bleh: a lady Ixion?


It's not bird flu you have to worry about there, Finn.

And going by your avitar, it looks like you were at it with Mrs Finn and slipped

[El Dopa]

If it was gunna mutate to spred from human to human it would have by now...


Tui, anyone?

[Motu]

Four friggen pages and I still haven't seen a photo of that hot chick Sandra Bollocks!