Climate change reports

[Big Dave]

NZ Herald:
'Climate change not all doom and gloom' (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10433431)

Sydney Morning Herald:
'Climate scientists paint grim picture for Australia'.

Might be a good time to invest in some land.

[JimO]

global warming isnt man made its a natural cycle and has been happening since adam was a cowboy

[ManDownUnder]

Bugger investing in land... powdered water's the future! There'll be a shortage and imagine if you could pack the dehydrated stuff.... you'd have it anywhere you wanted.

Where's the Patent office?

[rogson]

....Might be a good time to invest in some land.

Not sandy beach front though.

I could be argued that an overall a warmer climate is good for NZ - longer growing season, less energy use for winter heating, etc.

And, in the same vein, what's so bad about a warmer world climate? The chicken-lickens will have us believe its all doom and disaster - but is it? Don't things grow better in greenhouses?

[Squeak the Rat]

All the talk of climate change affecting places in 30 years time is just to take our minds off a more imminent crisis - our oil will have run out in 10 years........

[MisterD]

our oil will have run out in 10 years........

:gob: Shit, I'd better drink the wine cellar and start laying down the Motul...

[Crisis management]

:gob: Shit, I'd better drink the wine cellar and start laying down the Motul...

Right, I'm just up the hill from you, you'll need help with the wine cellar I'm sure..........

Wots the address again?

[spookytooth]

I just wonder are these they same guy that were bleating on about global cooling 15 years ago

[rainman]

All the talk of climate change affecting places in 30 years time is just to take our minds off a more imminent crisis - our oil will have run out in 10 years........

Erm, I hate to be a pedant, but it won't so much have run out as maybe just peaked, so be ferking expensive... There's still as much left as we've used so far. That said, "ferking expensive" and "not available" are pretty close together, for given values of ferking.

[Krusti]

Ever notice how kids are getting taller than they were when we were young......helps keep thier heads above water...:yes:

[Big Dave]

global warming isnt mad made its a natural cycle and has been happening since adam was a cowboy


Man made or not doesn't really matter - and I'm not chicken little - this is daily fare back home:

<headline>Level 6 restrictions 'inevitable'</headline>

<date>April 9, 2007</date>

<!--articleDetails--> <bod> </bod>Tough level six water restrictions are inevitable if much-needed rain doesn't replenish Queensland's drought-ravaged southeast corner, authorities warn.
Level five water restrictions, the toughest yet, will come into force today as the state faces its worst drought on record.
They include a ban on residential washing of vehicles, caravans and boats, as well as on outdoor showers and water play pools, while bucket watering of gardens is to be scaled back.
But Queensland Water Commissioner Elizabeth Nosworthy yesterday warned restrictions would be further tightened between September and November this year if the relentless drought continued.
"If there isn't any rain, yes it's clearly inevitable," Ms Nosworthy told reporters in Brisbane.

-----------------

The salt table rising in Western Sydney is an even bigger problem. And that's a man made beauty.

[Swoop]

Strange. The population centres at risk (Brisbane/Gold Coast, Sydney) are near the coast yet they still refuse to build some decent desalination plants that would solve the problem.

[Big Dave]

Strange. The population centres at risk (Brisbane/Gold Coast, Sydney) are near the coast yet they still refuse to build some decent desalination plants that would solve the problem.

Sydney is planning a big one at Kurnell. Next to the oil refinery - right beside where Cook first landed.

[jonbuoy]

If its as bad as they think we are all in for a rough ride.

[Finn]

Strange. The population centres at risk (Brisbane/Gold Coast, Sydney) are near the coast yet they still refuse to build some decent desalination plants that would solve the problem.

Well at least they have that option available. Meanwhile in NZ... Dats our water bro.

Desalination is too expensive.

[Pwalo]

Get a grip boys. The experts can't tell us what the weather will be tommorrow, or the next few days, but they can accurately predict the long term stuff?

We're going to run out of oil in 10 years? FFS we don't even know how much of the stuff there is, how it's produced, how long it takes to produce, etc.

Now worry about something that really matters. Like what you're going to have for lunch.

[ManDownUnder]

Desalination is too expensive.

Only while there are other options... then it becomes remarkably attractive. Desal or die... desal... or die... ?

Not a tough choice really

[Big Dave]

Get a grip boys.

The difference between being worried and being aware.
Like I'm aware of the dangers of motorcycling - but i'm not worried about it.

[Roj]

There are scientists that disagree with the reports as well, research is ongoing, one of the problems is that accurate weather & climate recordings are a recent development when considering things on a geological time scale, as the research gets better it may all turn out to be a storm in a teacup:drinkup:

[Jantar]

I just wonder are these they same guy that were bleating on about global cooling 15 years ago
It was 30 years ago, and yes, it is the same Dr Hansen who claimed that the earthe was heading for an ice age by 2010 who is now one of the lead science reviewers for the IPCC. Interesting that he reviews more of his own papers than anyone elses. :D

[Jantar]

Ten facts about global warming THEY don’t want you to know

Britain is one degree Celsius cooler now than it was at the time of the Domesday book.

Greenland got its name from the verdant pastures that attracted the Norse settlers under Eric the Red in 986. They carried on their normal way of life (based on cattle, grain, hay and herring) for 300 years until the Little Ice Age, when they were driven off by the encroaching ice and the Inuit took over. The ice and the Inuit are still there.

Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas. In the atmosphere there is over a hundred times the concentration of water vapour, which is the dominant greenhouse gas.

Without the Greenhouse Effect there would be no life on Earth.

Temperature measurements by satellite, radio sonde balloons and well maintained rural surface stations in the West show no significant warming.

The only evidence of significant warming comes from mainly non-western stations that are probably ill maintained or those that are contaminated by the Urban Heat Island Effect.

Computer models of the climate are worthless, as they are based on many assumptions about interactions between climate factors that are still unknown to science. They are generally unstable and chaotic, giving a wide variety of answers depending on the input assumptions.

The Kyoto agreement would have a devastating effect on the world economy but, since carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, an undetectable effect on the climate.

The IPCC (the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has been the main engine for promoting the global warming scare. It has become notorious for its corrupt practices of doctoring its reports and executive summaries, after they have been approved by the participating scientists, to conform to its political objectives

The really big lie about man-made global warming is that almost all scientists accept it. More than 4,000 scientists from 106 countries, including 72 Nobel prize winners, signed the Heidelberg Appeal (1992), calling for a rational scientific approach to environmental problems. Many senior scientists have also supported The Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming (1992), The Leipzig Declaration (1997) and finally the Oregon Petition (1998) which received the signatures of over 19,000 scientists.

For links to each of these facts see http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/ten_facts_about_global_warming.htm

[Krusti]

Paul Henry this morning reckoned we should dredge the seabed and build a few mountains in Aussie to make room for the exta water.:laugh:

[scumdog]

Just a thought: The scientists waffle on about how the sea is rising due to global warming melting the polar ice.

Has anybody taken into consideration the possibility of ocean levels rising due to the amount of soil being washed into the ocean from our ever eroding mountains around the world?

Or is it insignificant?

(I believe it's a fair amount of real estate going into the oceans having an effect)

[Jantar]

At http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/ispm.html there is a link which will allow anyone to download the Indepenant Summary for Policy Makers. It is a long document, but gives a totally different perspective to what we see on the media. It is pdf format, so I am unable to cut and paste any of the more interesting sections.


I always find the science to be much more informative than the media.

[Paul in NZ]

Well at least they have that option available. Meanwhile in NZ... Dats our water bro..

If it dries up I'm digging a well at Finns place - plenty of water inside his walls I'm told..

[Big Dave]

I always find the science to be much more informative than the media.

But that only looking at a confined set of data if it's the one you posted before.

There are phenomena occurring that are outside those empirical marks. I don't care if it's man made of not.

For every scientist that says yea - I can quote you another that says nay. And vice versa. maybe even 'dozens'.
Eg: (Not a great quote - but it's only worth a few sec)
-----------------------------------

Another report author, Tony McMichael, of the Australian National University, blah bla blah....

A digital map of Australia's coastline is being created to help pinpoint coastal communities that face being washed away by rising sea levels. The Australian Greenhouse Office is co-ordinating dozens of scientists to take part in the project.
----------------

This is made up? Australian Greenhouse Office ie.

------------------

Lastly for now - go and have a look at the shot hole that SE Qld has become and tell me all is Hunky Dory. It may well be natural, but it's still a well changed pisser.

[Ixion]

What Mr Jantar said. The world has been abnormally cold the last 400 years or so. If it is now warming up (from whatever reason) , then it is just returning back to what it was in earlier times. So, we had a short cold snap ,which is now over.

And so much the better. There is more of the Earth that is unusable because it is too cold, than there is unusable because it is too hot. Dry is a slightly different matter, but overall a warmer world will be a wetter world. Think tropics, Sinapore, India. Just the dry and wet may not be in the same places as now.

There may be some temporary minor disruption to human activity but it will be shortlived (a few centuries , a millenium at most) , relatively minor , a few cities abandoned here and there, some migration from newly inhospitable areas to newly hospitable ones, no different to what has happend thousands of times before.

And in the long run, it will be beneficial. Could be a good time to invest in real estate in Greenland or Scandanavia or North Africa. A few hundred years time, it might pay off big.

Roll it on , I say.

[Pwalo]

But you are only looking at one set of data. I don't know or care if it's man made of not.

There are phenomena occurring that are outside those empirical marks.

For every scientist that says yea - I can quote you another that says nay. And vice versa. maybe even 'dozens'.
Eg:
-----------------------------------

Another report author, Tony McMichael, of the Australian National University, said people in rural Australia were particularly vulnerable to hotter and drier conditions. "There are a whole range of adverse health consequences that would flow from loss of livelihood, economic downturn, exposure to extremes of heat, dust, bushfires, smoke, depletions of freshwater supplies and so on."
A digital map of Australia's coastline is being created to help pinpoint coastal communities that face being washed away by rising sea levels. The Australian Greenhouse Office is co-ordinating dozens of scientists to take part in the project.
----------------

This is made up?

------------------

Lastly for now - go and have a look at the shot hole that SE Qld has become and tell me all is Hunky Dory. It may well be natural, but it's still a well changed pisser.

No mate it's not made up, they are doing that. The problem is that they are working on a mathematical model that can't be confirmed for a few more centuries at least. Not saying that it's a bad idea to have some sort of plan, just that to put a definitive course of action in place you need definitive data.

There isn't any yet.

I guess people like to believe in absolutes, but we're only dealing with extrapolations and theory. At the moment global warming/climate change/global cooling/greenhouse gases seem to have more of the look of a religion than reason.

[Jantar]

I sincerely hope that I am looking at many more than a single set of data, otherwise I'd be no better than Mann, Bradley, and Hughes who concocted the hockey stick theory. The are multiple sets of data that show that Climate Change is a natural phenomenum.

And yes, There are phenomena occurring that are outside those empirical marks of data, but no-one has shown that they have anything to do with climate change.

What Tony McMichael says is quite correct, but where is the evidence that those hotter and drier conditions are man made?

As for the coastal communities that face being washed away by rising sea levels. I would refer you to the actual sea level data being recorded that shows no man made sea level rise. I would refer you to http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/index.htm for Tasmanian levels and at http://www.john-daly.com/ges/msl-rept.htm for a more general expose on sea levels.

[vifferman]

What's all this talk of global warming? That's like, so... 90's, Man.

It's now called Globular Yawning. :yes:


:whocares:

[Pwalo]

What's all this talk of global warming? That's like, so... 90's, Man.

It's now called Globular Yawning. :yes:




:whocares:

Yep wake me up when they decide that temperature is driven by the sun's activty and we can all relax because there's sweet FA we can do about it.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.................

[Big Dave]

I sincerely hope that I am looking at many more than a single set of data, otherwise I'd be no better than Mann, Bradley, and Hughes who concocted the hockey stick theory.


Will have a surf later.
My 'concern' and looking at my grandkid is not the who or why - but what is - or might - be happening.

Natural or not I'd prefer the little tacker untoasted.

Precursor to a polarity shift - we're 20,000 overdue.
Chicken little out.

[Big Dave]

:whocares:


Wait till ya gotta da ganda bambino bruddah - you start to look further along the road.

[vifferman]

Wait till ya gotta da ganda bambino bruddah - you start to look further along the road.

Say... wha...?
You're in UnZud now - spouik Kouiwuoi (as you West Islanders are wont to say).

My :whocares: is that I'm sick of all the media hooplah and crapola being spouted about Globular Yawning. Not only is it unbalanced, ill-researched and alarmist, human activity has such a pathetically small possible effect on climate change as to be negligible and discountable. There's WAY too much of jumping on the latest populist bandwagon, rather than properly researching the alramist propaganda they're trotting out whenever there's a slow news day. Plus I realised long ago (and this is why I haven't worked in science for the last 25 years or so) that scientific process is deeply flawed, and that scientists can't follow true scientific process without being swayed by political and monetary concerns.

Yes, it's good to have concern for the environment we live in, and not pollute it / exploit it / trash it, but 6 years of drinking beer ... ah... studying Earth Sciences learned me Some Stuff. Like, we don't really even begin to understand natural mechanisms of climate change, and that prehistoric and historic fluctuations have been much, MUCH huger than any "they" are now trying to attribute to cows farting and car emissions.

Blah blah blah... look - you've done it now. Got me all hot under the collar (that must've melted a few baby polar bears and drowned a few Inuit). You shoulda just left me at :whocares:.

:shutup:

[Big Dave]

catalyst |ˈkatl-ist| noun a substance that increases the rate of a chemical reaction without itself undergoing any permanent chemical change. • figurative a person or thing that precipitates an event : the governor's speech acted as a catalyst for debate. ORIGIN early 20th cent.: from catalysis , on the pattern of analyst.

[Finn]

If it dries up I'm digging a well at Finns place - plenty of water inside his walls I'm told..

Considering I'm on a cliff with water below, you'd probably be most successful. It would be a bit salty though.

[Krusti]

Now on the news today some Insurance companies are saying that they may not insure coastal holiday homes.

Next they will be saying they won't cover us for storm damage.

[Mr Merde]

Now on the news today some Insurance companies are saying that they may not insure coastal holiday homes.

Next they will be saying they won't cover us for storm damage.

Acts of dog or war are not covered by insurance already.

Insurance companies have a legal requirement to rip everyone off. You pay your money and get SFA in return as they will always find a way out.

[Bass]

Strange. The population centres at risk (Brisbane/Gold Coast, Sydney) are near the coast yet they still refuse to build some decent desalination plants that would solve the problem.

I am led to believe that this is a fallacy. Desalination plants take a fair bit of electricity to run.
Where the electrical supply has a significant thermal generation base, then the cooling systems of the generation plants use more water than the desalination plants that they run, can produce - ie net reduction in available water

[Bass]

I am undecided about the climatic effects of human activities. However, it is true that as temperatures rise, CO2 is also forced out of solution in the oceans and so there is POTENTIAL for a runaway effect.
The bit that I wonder about though, is that our major contributor to CO2 production is the burning of fossil fuels. Now as I understand it, fossil fuels originated from vegetation which in turn originated from atmosheric CO2 via photosynthesis. Therefore, when we burn fossil fuels, are we not just sticking the CO2 back where it came from in the first place?

[Swoop]

I am led to believe that this is a fallacy. Desalination plants take a fair bit of electricity to run.
Where the electrical supply has a significant thermal generation base, then the cooling systems of the generation plants use more water than the desalination plants that they run, can produce - ie net reduction in available water

Seems to work perfectly well on ships of all sizes.
You suck in two sources of water. One to be purified, the other to do the cooling work.

[Bass]

Seems to work perfectly well on ships of all sizes.
You suck in two sources of water. One to be purified, the other to do the cooling work.


Except that most thermal power stations don't use salt water cooling

[Jantar]

I am led to believe that this is a fallacy. Desalination plants take a fair bit of electricity to run.
Where the electrical supply has a significant thermal generation base, then the cooling systems of the generation plants use more water than the desalination plants that they run, can produce - ie net reduction in available water
Not true. Modern desalination plants are part of the power station. The water that is being deslainated is also the primary coolant for the power station.
The secondary, demineralised coolant is recycled through heat exchangers and is reused over and over.

[Ixion]

I am led to believe that this is a fallacy. Desalination plants take a fair bit of electricity to run.
Where the electrical supply has a significant thermal generation base, then the cooling systems of the generation plants use more water than the desalination plants that they run, can produce - ie net reduction in available water


But the coolant water is still available for other purposes (eg irrigation) after it has done its coolant stuff. It just gets warmer, and then cools down again. So you could run water through a electricity plant (or a hydro) , then use the cooled down water for irrigation/industry/anything else (with perhaps further treatment). And use the electricity to desalinate seawater to produce more fresh water

[Jantar]

Except that most thermal power stations don't use salt water cooling
Ones designed as desalination plants do, and almost all thermal power stations located on the coast do as well. Have a close look at New Plymouth Power station next time you are in that area.

[Bass]

Not true. Modern desalination plants are part of the power station. The water that is being deslainated is also the primary coolant for the power station.
The secondary, demineralised coolant is recycled through heat exchangers and is reused over and over.

Agreed - but the post that gave rise to this was suggesting desalination plants in Oz to get around drought problems and in this case the power stations already exist. Moreover, they tend to use cooling towers for the condensors and so the cooling water is lost to atmosphere.

Combined coastal generation / desalination plants are perfectly feasible but also fearsomely expensive.

[The_Dover]

I thought aussies drank XXXX and VB??

what the fuck do they need water for? it's not like they wash.

[Bass]

I thought aussies drank XXXX and VB??

what the fuck do they need water for? it's not like they wash.

Welcome Ben

Are you ever gonna make it round for band practice - I've had a beer in the fridge with your name on it for a fortnight now.

Whoops......... back on track

[SPman]

Now as I understand it, fossil fuels originated from vegetation which in turn originated from atmosheric CO2 via photosynthesis. Therefore, when we burn fossil fuels, are we not just sticking the CO2 back where it came from in the first place?
Question of time scale perhaps.......100,000,000 yrs to lock it all up.....200 yrs to dump it all back in the atmos?

[Bass]

Question of time scale perhaps.......100,000,000 yrs to lock it all up.....200 yrs to dump it all back in the atmos?

Bugger, you spotted the flaw. Oh well, it was a bit tongue in cheek anyway.

[Jantar]

Question of time scale perhaps.......100,000,000 yrs to lock it all up.....200 yrs to dump it all back in the atmos?
Modern tectonic science is suggesting that the so called fossil fuels aren't so fossilised after all. That's mainly because most of the more recent finds are in places and depths that are almost impossible to sourced from fossil origions.

However, the current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are higher than previously recorded, but measurments of levels earlier times show that overall the current levels are only average. Of more interest is the fact that atmospheric CO2 levels follow rather than lead warming. This strongly suggests that warming causes increased atmospheric CO2, not that atmospheric CO2 causes warming.

[jonbuoy]

Yeah stupid scientists - look at all the other stuff they cried about - microscopic things you can't even see that can make you sick, fridges and aerosols causing Ozone layer depletion, lead in petrol, Southern parts of the USA at risk from a freak storm :rofl:

- oh wait now, that was all true. :mellow:

[Jantar]

Agreed - but the post that gave rise to this was suggesting desalination plants in Oz to get around drought problems and in this case the power stations already exist. Moreover, they tend to use cooling towers for the condensors and so the cooling water is lost to atmosphere.

Combined coastal generation / desalination plants are perfectly feasible but also fearsomely expensive.

Quite right Bass, Thats because most thermal stations are near the fuel source rather than on the coast. Where a thermal power station is already on the coast (eg Newcastle) then adding a desalination plant is very cost effective.

[Bass]

Quite right Bass, Thats because most thermal stations are near the fuel source rather than on the coast. Where a thermal power station is already on the coast (eg Newcastle) then adding a desalination plant is very cost effective.

Hoy !!! I thought it was against the rules for 2 people to agree on this site.

[Bass]

However, the current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are higher than previously recorded, but measurments of levels earlier times show that overall the current levels are only average. .

Oh, and just to be a total smartarse, isn't this internally inconsistent?

[SPman]

Ozone depletion is far more dangerous, in the short term, than CO2 enhancement of the atmos. I'd rather be warmer and wetter, than having more & more of the ultraviols searing my ravaged skin.

[Big Dave]

I thought aussies drank XXXX and VB??

what the fuck do they need water for? it's not like they wash.

Queenslanders drink Castlemain XXXX.
They are a bit like the your lot.
No-one takes them seriously.