Lies, lies, statistics, and lies

[Pwalo]

Sorry but I couldn't let this pass. Have a gander at this article in this morning's DomPost, and tell me whats wrong.

http://stuff.co.nz/4125752a10.html

Yep that's right, no coroner's reports to back up the claim that pollution is killing LOTS of us. No bodies, but lots of death.

Now I do believe that statistical modelling does have its uses, but surely you actually need to find someone who can be proven to have died because of something to label it a killer?

[Whynot]

statistics can be made to say anything you like if you know how ....

[slinky]

68% of Statistics are made up on the spot.

[Clockwork]

I'd suggest they used the same technique to calculate the number of people dying each year from passive smoking.

We all bought in to that bullshit argument, so why not this?

[imdying]

68% of Statistics are made up on the spot.

I heard it was closer to 80% :mellow:

[dhunt]

Maybe I'm wrong but don't we all live a lot longer than we use to? And these people that got their lives shortened - how much shorter were they? How do they come up with these numbers. It makes a good conspiracy theory though and gets the greenies lots of money.

Compared to some cities i've lived in overseas NZ doesn't have any pollution to speak of. If you fly into Manila for example you can see the haze - and nothing stays white there for long.

I suggest we fight some of our other problems before we spend lots of $$$'s on this but I can't see that happening.

[Swoop]

Pales into insignificance compared to the bullshit statistics being churned out and manipulated to death, just to keep the "global warming" industry moving...:angry:

[Paul in NZ]

100% of all people that once lived and are now dead breathed air at some point so the quality of the air they breathed may have been a contributing factor in their deaths.

Every year, more people die than the year before and given the massive numbers of people that have died historically and the increasing numbers of people that pass away every year it is obvious that the common factor is the 100% air breathing and thus vital that the quality of this air is improved.

[janno]

100% of all people that once lived and are now dead breathed air at some point so the quality of the air they breathed may have been a contributing factor in their deaths.

Every year, more people die than the year before and given the massive numbers of people that have died historically and the increasing numbers of people that pass away every year it is obvious that the common factor is the 100% air breathing and thus vital that the quality of this air is improved.

We can solve this terrible problem by removing all the air. Then there will be no risk of people dying needlessly from poor air quality.

We could start by hermetically sealing up the Beehive, so our great leaders will be the first to benefit from this new health breakthrough . . . :innocent:

[yod]

can anyone here actually prove these statistics are incorrect or is it just lets-abuse-the-govt-cos-its-fun day?

wait for it.......

[slinky]

I heard it was closer to 80% :mellow:

Your statistic could possibly be right!.

Mine has a 68% chance of being made up. Yours has an 80% chance.
68% sounds better because its inbetween equal divisions of 10.
80% = made up.
68.3% = sounds too specific to be made it... it must be right.

[imdying]

I've got contacts in the stats departments... I've got pros helping me talk out my arse ;) :lol:

/edit: 93 blades kick arse :yes:

[Jantar]

There is a book by Proffessor John Brignell called "The Epidemiologists" which is devoted to exposing the misuse of statistics in this manner. What happens in this type of study is that a statistical correllation is found between air quality and number of deaths. The epidemiologists then make an assumption that one causes the other, in this case that bad air quality causes premature death. It could equally also be agued that premature death lowers the air quality, or it could be that there is some other cause.

Is it possible, as an example, that more people die when it is colder? Is it also possible that more fires are lit when it is colder? Is it therefore possible that the cold causes both, lower air quality and premature death?

Like Pwalo, I would like to see a single death certificate where air quality is listed as the cause of death.

[Paul in NZ]

Like Pwalo, I would like to see a single death certificate where air quality is listed as the cause of death.

Theres been a few where air quantity was a factor

[yod]

There is a book by Proffessor John Brignell called "The Epidemiologists" which is devoted to exposing the misuse of statistics in this manner. What happens in this type of study is that a statistical correllation is found between air quality and number of deaths. The epidemiologists then make an assumption that one causes the other, in this case that bad air quality causes premature death.




what i find amusing is how most here make the assumption that the epidemiological deductions, in this case, must be incorrect....

statistical correllation can be incorrect...it can also be correct....

[Jantar]

....statistical correllation can be incorrect...it can also be correct....

Quite correct, and also quite wrong. In any branch of science there is an overiding principal: "Correlation does not equal Causation".

It may do so, but until the mechanism is shown, then the null hypophesis must apply.

[yod]

exactly...but in this case we dont know whether the mechanism exists or not so assumptions either way are unfounded (from our point of view)

[slinky]

I've got contacts in the stats departments... I've got pros helping me talk out my arse ;) :lol:

/edit: 93 blades kick arse :yes:

oh lucky you! Im just talking complete shit and possibly said something intelligent.

cheers! its a great bike, but not worth the trouble of shipping to Auz.

[imdying]

Stick the kms and a rough price in your sig :yes:

[Wolf]

I thought all those deaths were supposed to be caused by passive smoking because someone once saw a person having a cigarette 100m away and so their life was prematurely curtailed.

Why are the papers pronouncing heresies against the Gospel-according-to-ASH.

The Harald and the Dompost will surely be invaded by ASH Inquisitors and put to The Question...

Not to mention all the shit they're going to get from the factory cartels and the automotive industry for unfairly blaming them when it has been statistically proven that the deaths are caused by evil smokers and not the benevolent industries...