Deck chairs on the Titanic

[RantyDave]

I would dearly love to dismiss this guy as a crackpot, but I don't think he is:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange

Short version: There is a coming environmental catastrophe and the current fads around windmills, recycling and carbon credits are just moving the deck chairs on the Titanic. He's also a big advocate of nuclear power, which I had to get in just to wind up those who think nuclear fission and plagues of locusts are somehow linked.

On the plus side he points out that if the green fads make no long term difference, then neither does whizzing round the countryside powered by rapidly combusting fossil fuels and we should get as much of it as we can :)

Dave

[Finn]

Easy for him to say, he's got one foot in the grave and the other on a banana skin.

[MIXONE]

After reading that I feel like going out and putting a new bike on HP so I can enjoy it before we all get wiped out.

[YellowDog]

They must be short of news at the monent if they have to publish stuff like that!

They just need a good old catastrophe to start filling the pages again.

T S U N A M I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

[James Deuce]

He's also a big advocate of nuclear power, which I had to get in just to wind up those who think nuclear fission and plagues of locusts are somehow linked.



Nukes would be great if someone made a 100MW nuclear power generator. That's what our lowest draw is overnight. You should PM Jantar and ask for his explanation on NZ's power draw and grid architecture. Nukes don't work in NZ's environment YET and the closest to a usable solution is a Westinghouse product that generates 360MW. Still leaves 260MW to "dispose" of and would mean we could only have one Nuke plant up and running. You can shut down fossil fuel and hydro plants pretty easily. Nukes you can't shut down or start up quickly.

[Hitcher]

Apart from being a Grumpy Old Fart(TM), he is dead right about the futility of carbon offsetting.

[Finn]

the closest to a usable solution is a Westinghouse product that generates 360MW.

I hope they're more reliable than their fridges.

[Pwalo]

Apart from being a Grumpy Old Fart(TM), he is dead right about the futility of carbon offsetting.

Yes indeed. Still someone's going to make a bucket load of money when it becomes mandatory.

Still we should be all right as the average global temperatures have apparently been decreasing for the past five or so years, so there should something new to worry about.

And can someone explain why carbon is evil?

[idb]

...
And can someone explain why carbon is evil?

We'd be worse off without it.

[Ixion]

Still we should be all right as the average global temperatures have apparently been decreasing for the past five or so years, so there should something new to worry about.



OMG. Oh Noes. So now we have to worry about global cooling AND global warming simultaneously!

Oh doom, doom, we're all doomed. We'll all be frozen on one side and boiled on the other. All the sea levels will rise because of ice melting and then when it's risen it'll freeze into giant glaciers.

Europe will turn into a giant swampy desert.

Doomed, I tells ya. Doomed.

[Swoop]

Saw the title of the thread and thought "this'll be about the labour party"...


I hope they're more reliable than their fridges.
Probably leak about the same amount.

[Brett]

Excuse me while I go stab myself in the eye with a screw driver. That would be more cheerful. Not sure whether I buy into his pesimistic view...but as a race we sure have rooted this world.

[Pex Adams]

Are we able to get Carbon Credits for everytime Fatjim farts?
Actually come to think of it; can we make a case for it when his daughter does as well???

[Edbear]

I hope they're more reliable than their fridges.


I heard their fridges were quite reliable. Heard about the woman who opens her fridge and there's this little bird in it? She asks what it's doing in there and the bird replies, "Is this a Westinghouse?" "Yes it is," she says. "Well, then", says the little bird, "I's westing!"



:Offtopic:

[Macstar]

Save the planet, get rid of the humans. Pretty simple really. So who's first?

[Hitcher]

This planet is more than capable of eliminating whole civilisations and life forms. And will do so again. When it's ready.

And no doubt the next crop of humanoids will create god in their own image.

[Steam]

But he's an optimist really...


"There have been seven disasters since humans came on the earth, very similar to the one that's just about to happen. I think these events keep separating the wheat from the chaff. And eventually we'll have a human on the planet that really does understand it and can live with it properly. That's the source of my optimism."

Humans will survive, just not with our fancy civilisation we have now. The farthest back we might slide is to pre-industral levels, about the 1800's. Or the end of the pre-industral age anyway.
That's not so bad, in the long view.
The bad thing is the painful getting there, the billions dying before we stablise at at that level.
And New Zealand will likely be one of the lucky countries, far the fuck away from all the other greedy buggers for a start.

So, now that we know we're all doomed, how do we plan to survive? Individually or collectively as a nation.

[Mikkel]

This planet is more than capable of eliminating whole civilisations and life forms. And will do so again. When it's ready.

And no doubt the next crop of humanoids will also create god in their own image, again.

Indeed - and if we should manage to hold on for dear life long enough Mr. Helios will take good care of us in about 2-5 billion years... But hey, who the fuck is counting anyway?

Let's just use up the fossil fuels ASAP - then we have one thing less to worry about for approximately another 250 million years.

My ZXR250 runs exclusively on baby velociraptors!

[James Deuce]

And New Zealand will likely be one of the lucky countries, far the fuck away from all the other greedy buggers for a start.


7/8ths of the population will die if fossil fuels are removed from the equation.

NZ is NOT a good place for humans to survive in. Maori did very well in trying conditions, but populations were tiny by today's standards and nutrition was very close to borderline, missing trace elements and vitamins that we take for granted in our diet today. Our soil is rubbish for crops without wholesale fertilisation, fertiliser that requires industrial capability to produce, and your estimation of an 1800s level of civilisation cannot be realised without a solid agrarian basis. The native flora and fauna are 150 million years older than most of the plant species around the rest of the world, with only a very few, very primitive flowering plants. It's not really designed for us to live on and if Maori hadn't brought rats (kiore, I believe) and Kumara with them they wouldn't have been doing as well as they were.

NZ would become a series of isolated fishing villages in very short order.

[Steam]

...missing trace elements and vitamins that we take for granted in our diet today. Our soil is rubbish for crops without wholesale fertilisation...

Isn't that only the North Island, with all its volcanic soils? I thought the south was pretty all-right?
As for there not being enough, with the plants being so primitive and all, we have potatoes and swedes and sheep now.
And cabbages.

[scrivy]

He's too right!!

We can't stop the impending doom! Why worry about personally saving 20% etc etc, when Asia is pumping out more sprogs than we can count!! In a few more years there'll be another billion people, then another, then another, its exponential. Imagine the pollution and waste they'll all produce!!
Us saving the environment??? Yeah right!! Although it does make ya feel good........... so does a quick fifty off the wrist.....

[BIHB@0610]

I is jst gonna cuddle mies kiddikats ........ scniff.

[BIHB@0610]

He's too right!!

We can't stop the impending doom! Why worry about personally saving 20% etc etc, when Asia is pumping out more sprogs than we can count!! In a few more years there'll be another billion people, then another, then another, its exponential. Imagine the pollution and waste they'll all produce!!
Us saving the environment??? Yeah right!! Although it does make ya feel good........... so does a quick fifty off the wrist.....


Would it be incredibly poor taste to suggest that the very population expansion you decry might actually, after 250million years of decomposition and whatever other natural process occurs, turn into some more fossil fuel .... sustainability hehe. Yeah, probably is poor taste.

[James Deuce]

Isn't that only the North Island, with all its volcanic soils? I thought the south was pretty all-right?
As for there not being enough, with the plants being so primitive and all, we have potatoes and swedes and sheep now.
And cabbages.

Which will only last if someone farms and fertilises them. That requires patience, a pollination vector for seed plants, skill and the ability to tell what type of fertiliser you need for your crops without ready access to a basic chemistry set, and above all uninterrupted growing time. There's not many people with those skills left, and they'll be looking out for themselves.

The great die off in the North Island will be horrendous. The people that survive won't be sharing. The South Island isn't any better in terms of soil quality. Without constant chemical fertilisation, large scale farming won't work in NZ.

[idb]

He's too right!!

We can't stop the impending doom! Why worry about personally saving 20% etc etc, when Asia is pumping out more sprogs than we can count!! In a few more years there'll be another billion people, then another, then another, its exponential. Imagine the pollution and waste they'll all produce!!
Us saving the environment??? Yeah right!! Although it does make ya feel good........... so does a quick fifty off the wrist.....

And apparently all those extra people are making the planet heavier which will eventually cause it to drop out of its orbit and disappear into space.
Yikes!!
Better set up Moonbase Alpha as soon as possible!!!

[Ixion]

Bu tin such an 'end of world' scenario, no-one will be large scale farming. It will all be peasant , subsistence type stuff. Which has a whole different basis for fertilisation. Think seaweed, guano, dead possums, sources too small and difficult for factory farming but usable by peasants.

And , sure , the Maori had a major problem with lack of protein. But the ecology of NZ nowdays is totally different to what it was then. All those imported species. The possum alone completely changes the balance of things, high quality protein and easy to catch.

And I think you greatly underestimate the numbers of folk today who could still manage perfectly well in a subsistence farming regime. Most NZers are only a generation or two from the land. And there is still a lot of bush in NZ, a man can survive in the bush. (Hm, if ammo is no longer available that may be trickier) Sure, the cities will be abandoned, the West Coast and the Urerewas will be the desireable spots (and, as you say, coastal areas with access to marine foodstocks).

Assuming the 'disaster' is gradual , not sudden , I do not think the population loss in NZ would be that great - maybe 50% . People panic too much about these things, man is a very versatile beast.

[scrivy]

Why do pollies always fuck about with greenie shit and never deal with the fact that over-population is gunna fuck this planet??

[James Deuce]

Bu tin such an 'end of world' scenario, no-one will be large scale farming. It will all be peasant , subsistence type stuff. Which has a whole different basis for fertilisation. Think seaweed, guano, dead possums, sources too small and difficult for factory farming but usable by peasants.

And , sure , the Maori had a major problem with lack of protein. But the ecology of NZ nowdays is totally different to what it was then. All those imported species. The possum alone completely changes the balance of things, high quality protein and easy to catch.

And I think you greatly underestimate the numbers of folk today who could still manage perfectly well in a subsistence farming regime. Most NZers are only a generation or two from the land. And there is still a lot of bush in NZ, a man can survive in the bush. (Hm, if ammo is no longer available that may be trickier) Sure, the cities will be abandoned, the West Coast and the Urerewas will be the desireable spots (and, as you say, coastal areas with access to marine foodstocks).

Assuming the 'disaster' is gradual , not sudden , I do not think the population loss in NZ would be that great - maybe 50% . People panic too much about these things, man is a very versatile beast.

It will be sudden. I haven't underestimated the inability of the average person to look after themselves without electricity, shops, transport, and a kinetic projectile weapon. Don't go canvassing motorcyclists about their survival skills either. A lot of "us" have been sorted from the "chaff" already.

Subsistence farming is not romantic. You need lots of people to farm without horses or oxen (or tractors for that matter), and horses and oxen are going to be eaten. Dogs and cats too. Current paddock sizes are much too big to manage witha stick and a bucket.

Dysentery will kill probably 2/3rds of the population within the first 2-3 months. Our model of living is intensely social and without decent sanitation and even rudimentary knowledge about not shitting near rivers or streams upstream from where you drink, crowding diseases will make short work of people. Cannibalism will provide another vector for diseases. Don't suggest it won't happen. First winter in the open and people will be eating practically anything.

[James Deuce]

Why do pollies always fuck about with greenie shit and never deal with the fact that over-population is gunna fuck this planet??

No it isn't. 6 billion people could live in Texas and still have enough room for a 1.5 acre section. Enough for a cow, some chickens and a big veggie garden. The acquisition of valueless, virtual capital by the few exploiting the many is fucking the planet.

[homer]

This is quite cool

Cause hed be very very correct

all you have to do is think about it ...
think why should we and if we recycle and save this and save that and dont have nuke power

think of whos making the bucks
were just force fed it all and its BS

Who got rich out of Y2K

nothing was going to happen ,but we were led to believe it

the hole in the ozone layer moves ,it dosnt stay in one place
and its been predicted that the nort pole will eventually move to sit just west of britten

Oil companys also make us believe that oils running out
is it ?.....like when
its bs as well, pushes the price up cause its a pressure thing

[James Deuce]

Who got rich out of Y2K

nothing was going to happen ,but we were led to believe it


Total rubbish.

Barclays lost more than 2 billion pounds because they didn't upgrade their credit card date system to 4 digits for the year field. It took them two days to turn their Credit Card system off and people all over Europe got free Christmas presents and New Year's alcohol.

People started working on that issue in the late '80s. Just because you didn't see much happen doesn't mean nothing happened. Millions of people around the world did their normal jobs plus whatever they could do to stop you losing all your assets, electricity, mobility, and plain old freedom to a date field glitch.

It's an utter insult to a big chunk of society to suggest that we lied , cheated and stole and did no work because there was no issue. There was. And we who worked on it did a FUCKING GOOD job avoiding issues.

[Steam]

Who got rich out of Y2K

nothing was going to happen ,but we were led to believe it

A whole lot of I.T. types who are on KB just cringed as you perpetuated that myth.
Y2K WAS a BIG problem. We got through it because millions of IT geeks around the world worked damn hard for years to fix it.

EDIT: Oh, Jim2 has already answered that one. He's the biggest IT geek on KB.



Oil companys also make us believe that oils running out
is it ?.....like when
its bs as well, pushes the price up cause its a pressure thing
Just to clarify, you don't believe the oil is running out?

Okay, let me test you:
Were the moon landings faked?
Did George Bush order the Sept 11 attacks?
Do aliens really visit earth, and is the government covering it up?


"Hello? Calling Mr Craaaazy"

[Boob Johnson]

I heard their fridges were quite reliable. Heard about the woman who opens her fridge and there's this little bird in it? She asks what it's doing in there and the bird replies, "Is this a Westinghouse?" "Yes it is," she says. "Well, then", says the little bird, "I's westing!"



:Offtopic:
rofl :laugh: nice one




Save the planet, get rid of the humans. Pretty simple really. So who's first?
It could easily be a whole new thread...

I wonder how long until the critical mass of the (predominantly western) population start to view death in a different way. We are simply out growing this planet at an alarming rate & our current lifestyles aren't sustainable. So the population needs a "cull" like many other animals that inhabit the earth.

So yeah, who's first? Me or you?


Wealthy, would be the one word that would sum up (no pun intended) who's first. Would make for interesting future social policy.

[homer]

[QUOTE=Steam;1456958]A whole lot of I.T. types who are on KB just cringed as you perpetuated that myth.
Y2K WAS a BIG problem. We got through it because millions of IT geeks around the world worked damn hard for years to fix it.

EDIT: Oh, Jim2 has already answered that one. He's the biggest IT geek on KB.


Just to clarify, you don't believe the oil is running out?
no not running out at all ,theres millions of litres of it ,its constantly being created,but if you know that and its easy to get petrol would be cheap .Wouldnt it
After all what about everything made of plastic ,Its all petrolleum ,has the price of goods made of plastic gone up in relation to costs .
most of it is cheaper than ever .

Okay, let me test you:
Did man land on the moon?
answer no we all know its been a fake landing
Did George Bush order the Sept 11 attacks?
May as well have flown the planes him self ,Havnt you watched farenheight 911
Do aliens really visit earth, and is the government covering it up?
Yep they exist and its been covered up for decades

[Steam]

How...

how?

How do you remember to breathe?

ye gods!

[homer]

Just happens

come on who the fuck had any problem them selves with anything over Y2K
and what fucken credit card had 3 numbers and why would that worry anything ,its not the number that matters its the year

if a number gets to 999 it naturaly clocks back to 001

[James Deuce]

Just happens

come on who the fuck had any problem them selves with anything over Y2K
and what fucken credit card had 3 numbers and why would that worry anything ,its not the number that matters its the year

if a number gets to 999 it naturaly clocks back to 001

Did you read my post or are you just taking the piss. You didn't have problems because people worked hard to make sure you didn't, and they started a decade before you were aware there was a problem.

The Credit Card year field was two figures and STILL shows as two figures on your card. The transactions used to be processed using 2 figures for the year field. It was changed to four.

Incidentally, the last Y2k related date that was a potential problem happened last Friday. The year 2000 wasn't supposed to be a Leap Year.

[Ocean1]

No it isn't. 6 billion people could live in Texas and still have enough room for a 1.5 acre section. Enough for a cow, some chickens and a big veggie garden. The acquisition of valueless, virtual capital by the few exploiting the many is fucking the planet.

Yup, not too long ago most Kiwis had a veggie garden, ours was about 50sqM and, along with the little glasshouse provided a significant part of the family's requirements. Most housewives bottled fruit, made jam, pickles etc. All of that wasn't enough to survive on, either in terms of quantity or variety, but it was a damn good start.

I was moderately gobsmacked to learn that China's farmers, some 65% of the population, produce almost all of their requirements from just 1000sqM each. That's a bit of dirt the size of a largish suburban section per head of population. By decree anything designated rural having less than a 25 deg slope is "farm". Some of the things they "farm" are... interesting. And, like most of the developing world food quality in general is far below what we'd accept. For now.

And yes, I'm fookin' old. Thank's fer askin'.

[Boob Johnson]

Yup, not too long ago most Kiwis had a veggie garden, ours was about 50sqM and, along with the little glasshouse provided a significant part of the family's requirements. Most housewives bottled fruit, made jam, pickles etc. All of that wasn't enough to survive on, either in terms of quantity or variety, but it was a damn good start.

I was moderately gobsmacked to learn that China's farmers, some 65% of the population, produce almost all of their requirements from just 100sqM each. That's a bit of dirt the size of a largish suburban section per head of population. By decree anything designated rural having less than a 25 deg slope is "farm". Some of the things they "farm" are... interesting. And, like most of the developing world food quality in general is far below what we'd accept. For now.

And yes, I'm fookin' old. Thank's fer askin'.
Yup we were the same when I was a kid, dad's vege garden & hothouse for the toms (cough) & other hippy type plants that looked a lot like tomatoe plants but never seem to grow the red things, took years to work that one out :innocent:

Funny thing was we very rarely got sick in those days, hardly any colds or flu's, fresh veg from the garden straight into the pot, doesn't get any better than that :sunny:




Was a doco on last year showed a reasonably weathly businessman sold up & was living in a house bus on some land on the Coromandel, vege garden of course & was making a mud brick house by hand. He reckon the whole thing was gunna go belly up at some point so may as well get a head start

[SPman]

.....
NZ would become a series of isolated fishing villages in very short order.
That's assuming there is anything left to fish!

I think if/when things do start to collapse, it will happen a damn sight quicker than most people will realise.
If you survive the first month, you might have a fighting chance of getting through the first year.

[scumdog]

No it isn't. 6 billion people could live in Texas and still have enough room for a 1.5 acre section. Enough for a cow, some chickens and a big veggie garden. The acquisition of valueless, virtual capital by the few exploiting the many is fucking the planet.

At the end of the day it WILL be too many people with too greedy an attitude creating too much pollution and waste that will end life as we know it, mark my words....

Everybody wants a better life, full steam ahead and damn the environment...

[Edbear]

No it isn't. 6 billion people could live in Texas and still have enough room for a 1.5 acre section. Enough for a cow, some chickens and a big veggie garden. The acquisition of valueless, virtual capital by the few exploiting the many is fucking the planet.

Perzackly correct! And the world is currently producing enough food to feed 13 billion, yet 25% of the world is starving!


Excuse me while I go stab myself in the eye with a screw driver. That would be more cheerful. Not sure whether I buy into his pesimistic view...but as a race we sure have rooted this world.

What? Human's ruining their own planet that they rely on for life? Nah, surely not...


Save the planet, get rid of the humans. Pretty simple really. So who's first?


Yup! Nothing wrong with the Earth that proper management can't fix... Anyone reckon human's will save the planet?

[Swoop]

Better set up Moonbase Alpha as soon as possible!!!
Yes, Commander Koenig.

[scrivy]

No it isn't. 6 billion people could live in Texas and still have enough room for a 1.5 acre section. Enough for a cow, some chickens and a big veggie garden. The acquisition of valueless, virtual capital by the few exploiting the many is fucking the planet.

Jim2, the extra billions of people aren't directly going to f@ck this planet. It's their wastes - sewage, air pollution, dead waterways etc that will do the damage. We don't have enough clean air or clean water to sustain the extra people. Yes we may be able to feed 13 billion people, but how will you move the food around the world without the infrastructure we will lack in the future?? Poorer people cant migrate to the better parts of the world, who'll want them? It will just create more world wars.
So, in a sense, over population will destroy our planet.
All caused by you dirty little f@ckers on KB getting your leg over all the time!!

[Ocean1]

Jim2, the extra billions of people aren't directly going to f@ck this planet. It's their wastes - sewage, air pollution, dead waterways etc that will do the damage. We don't have enough clean air or clean water to sustain the extra people. Yes we may be able to feed 13 billion people, but how will you move the food around the world without the infrastructure we will lack in the future?? Poorer people cant migrate to the better parts of the world, who'll want them? It will just create more world wars.
So, in a sense, over population will destroy our planet.
All caused by you dirty little f@ckers on KB getting your leg over all the time!!

That "extra" population is contingent only on good management of production and distribution at a global level. There are many things you can point to that constitute poor management, probably the most unsavoury fall under the heading "consumerism". That, and the total lack of management represented by most of the third world. Add to that the idealistic social and fiscal policies driving most of the rest of the world's governments, devouring huge quantities of resources for zero return and the number of "extras" starts to look larger than it could be.

There's more at stake than human rights and social equality, evolution doesn't recognise such bullshit. If we compromise sensible ecological management policies in favour of short term expediency we simply won't survive. If "climate change" (™) doesn't get us something else eventually will. The focus needs to be on maintaining resources at a sustainable level, and as the gentleman suggests that means more technology, not less. It also means a level of coherent global cooperation in setting policy that has never existed, and is unlikely to.

War? Certainly, wars are always about resources, if they reduce or migrate then global warfare will proliferate. It’s been quiet for almost a century, due largely to technological advances and resource surpluses, perhaps that’s about to change. If so it might mean the end of advanced technology, and therefore civilisation as we know it. Maybe rather than selling my boat I should arm it eh?

[Pwalo]

You're all beginning to sound like American survivalists. I'm not too sure if that's a good thing, but it's quite amusing.

[scumdog]

If humans only wanted to 'exist' like a chipmunk does the world would be o.k.

But we humans want to 'live' which means we want Maccas, TV, motorcycles, over-seas travel, heated homes, roads, spray insecticides, have electricity, do burn-outs yadda, yadda, yadda.

All which 'use up' resources that are not needed for mere survival and create waste accordingly.

[Indiana_Jones]

DOOMED I TELLS YEA! DOOMED!

-Indy

[James Deuce]

Jim2, the extra billions of people aren't directly going to f@ck this planet. It's their wastes - sewage, air pollution, dead waterways etc that will do the damage. We don't have enough clean air or clean water to sustain the extra people. Yes we may be able to feed 13 billion people, but how will you move the food around the world without the infrastructure we will lack in the future?? Poorer people cant migrate to the better parts of the world, who'll want them? It will just create more world wars.
So, in a sense, over population will destroy our planet.
All caused by you dirty little f@ckers on KB getting your leg over all the time!!

Nah, that's just piss poor management.

Produce and transport food locally. If we didn't export or import foodstuffs, we'd all be a lot better off. Packaging and transport are causing most of our overt pollution issues at the moment. Food production is about making money not feeding people. If we changed that bias things would change for the better fairly rapidly. Only problem is a small minority of the planet would have a greatly reduced standard of living. You know, you and me, those "Westerners".

Dropping our standard of living would immeasurably improve it for the rest of the world.

Population pressures are all local in nature and emigration doesn't fix it. Letting people use their local resources will. At the moment we strip or have stripped in the past, all of the countries in Africa, Asia Minor, the Indian Sub Continent, SE Asia, China, and South America. We've established economic models in most of those countries that benefit us and leave the locals with a reduced standard of living. Europe tenaciously clung to the small farm model and it is starting to turn into a local positive for them, even with subsidies. Capitalist export models impoverish the local population. Look at how expensive relative to the local wage, Fish, Dairy, and Meat has become in NZ, especially over the last 18 months while our exporters have had pressure applied to them due to our dollar being over valued Internationally.

Clean Air? Almost always a local issue, and due to the lack of will to plan for continuous improvement in manging industrial waste. Clean Water problems? Almost always the result of letting areas become over populated (Western Urban Megalopolis model - it's a sign of "progress" you know!) or over farmed due to chasing after more virtual cash and refusing to apply a strict resource planning model. Not the shitty RMA NZ has but one with teeth and a purpose.

The biggest single mistake the Human race made was adopting an agrarian economy closely followed by the birth of the City State. Focussed agriculture is a bad idea.

[idb]

I'm reading a really interesting book at the moment by a guy called Jared Diamond.
He looks at societies over history and prehistory and examines why they have failed.

In the modern day apparently, Australia is at the most risk.
It has very low levels of nutrients in its soil and unreliable rainfall.
If it were to cease importing it would only be able to support approximately half of its current population, and the current political thinking is that it needs double the population!!

[Ixion]

..

Subsistence farming is not romantic. You need lots of people to farm without horses or oxen (or tractors for that matter), and horses and oxen are going to be eaten. Dogs and cats too. Current paddock sizes are much too big to manage witha stick and a bucket.

Dysentery will kill probably 2/3rds of the population within the first 2-3 months. Our model of living is intensely social and without decent sanitation and even rudimentary knowledge about not shitting near rivers or streams upstream from where you drink, crowding diseases will make short work of people. .

Nope . Not romanitic. F**k'n hard work. But practical if it's not agrarian farming. Pastoral doesn't require anywhere near so much in the way of horses (if needs be, none). Dogs would help, though.

NZ can easily support 70 million sheep (we had that many at one time) . Plus cows, goats deer. That's about 6 sheep and at least one other animal per household - even assuming only three people to a household. In reality, family sizes would get much much larger. Add vegie garden - labour intensive but highly productive - fertilise with the animal dung. Enough. Not going to be any fatties, but enough. Add fish, bush meat, bush vegetables, eels, lots of food in the bush.

Disease? Yep. Life expectancy would go down hard. But people survived. Dysentery shouldn't be a problem in NZ. I remember when every household had its own water supply, nobody died. And everybody knows to boil drinking water.

[James Deuce]

Disease? Yep. Life expectancy would go down hard. But people survived. Dysentery shouldn't be a problem in NZ. I remember when every household had its own water supply, nobody died. And everybody knows to boil drinking water.
You're making assumptions. There are people who cannot conceive of what we discuss.

[Hitcher]

As an agricultural scientist, I should plead the fifth, as it is not in our nature to produce high-quality food less efficiently.

If people don't demand a diverse range of foods, then they could perhaps feed themselves locally. In New Zealand's case this would mean forgoing wheat products, such as bread, pasta, biscuits, etc. This is because it is extremely difficult to produce reliable yields of milling wheat in this country. Other grain crops? Different story. Barley and various varieties of corn grow here very well.

Our consumption of seasonal fruits and vegetables would become seasonal. A lot of things we take for granted like bananas and oranges would largely disappear. The old arts of storing potatoes, onions and other staples would have to be resurrected.

The change in our standard of living by reverting to what is little more than subsistence agriculture, would be enormous. Like less than 15% of our current GDP. Probably much less.

And the ensuing societal impacts would be huge. As a nation we would no longer be a nation. Instead we would become a series of communities servicing large towns, that is assuming that anybody would want to remain here. This means that many roles and functions our society currently enjoys would be little more than frippery and dismissed almost immediately. People who did not have skills or knowledge that could make a direct and tangiable contribution would be dispensed with.

In some ways we would be better off than other societies facing similar pressures. In other ways we would be worse off. If we were no longer exporting food, there would be no reason for anybody to want to come here -- by sea or air -- which would make us a very remote and isolated place indeed.

[Pex Adams]

Nah, that's just piss poor management.



Are you telling me my bosses are running the world - shit that explains a lot:no::no:

[scumdog]

I'm reading a really interesting book at the moment by a guy called Jared Diamond.
He looks at societies over history and prehistory and examines why they have failed.

In the modern day apparently, Australia is at the most risk.
It has very low levels of nutrients in its soil and unreliable rainfall.
If it were to cease importing it would only be able to support approximately half of its current population, and the current political thinking is that it needs double the population!!

So how would NZ fare with it's selenium deficiency in the soil etc??

[Ixion]

Y'know, I remember seeing all this angst before. Except it was back in the 13th, 14th centuries.

And it wasn't global warming that gave them the shits, it was global cooling.

The world quite quickly (over maybe a century) got real cold. About like it is nowdays . And stayed that way. Right up to now.

Communities were abandoned all over Europe. Greenland, Iceland, Scotland Russia, North German Plain, Scandanavia, North America. All of them had massive population loss as communities died or moved on because the world had gotten too cold for them to be able to survive where they were .

And of course plenty of people were quick to anounce that the world was ending. became a very popular theme, and people made a living out of travelling round spinning the Doomsday Spiel.

Especially once disease started adding to the problem - people werent immunised to cold weather diseaes - influenza and such.

Economies collapsed, farms were abandoned, whole villages in England. Farming had to change massively - from agrarian to pastoral. No more grapevines in Greenland or England.

And, population pressures forced northern nomadic people (Mongols, Tarters etc) to move south and west, driven out by the cold. Which in turn meant massive wars. If the temperature drops too low for grass to grow, a horse-centric nomadic people MUST move south. or die. And nomads are usually warriors.

But, y'know, somehow, the world survived. Even though the cold continued.

Now, at last, maybe the good times are coming back. Warmth. The sooner the better I say, the last 700 years have been bloody hard. Roll on the return of the Warm Ages.

[Ocean1]

You're making assumptions. There are people who cannot conceive of what we discuss.

Yes, feeling of guilty, perverse interest in that. You can modify peoples behaviour in ways that are completely unsurvivable in a more "natural" environment without consequence. But if the "real world" ever returns they'll all be fookt.

Having said that I don’t know if too many that do remember the ways of the semi-self-dependent days would still be capable…

[Hitcher]

So how would NZ fare with it's selenium deficiency in the soil etc??

The selenium deficiency issue is only a problem in parts of the South Island. But your point is valid. Other parts of the country are deficient in other trace elements such as cobalt and molybdenum. Currently that is managed either by land use (growing trees instead of animals or food crops) or by additives applied to fertiliser. All of our fertiliser is imported. Superphosphate dependence is more of a concern than anything else when it comes to growing food here.

New Zealand's soils are geologically *new* compared with other parts of the world, and our production systems little more than land-based hydroponics -- which is great when the rain falls and the sun shines and we can apply artificial fertilisers.

It is in these situations that the tree-hugging devotees of "organics" encounter a significant reality check.

[James Deuce]

Now, at last, maybe the good times are coming back. Warmth. The sooner the better I say, the last 700 years have been bloody hard. Roll on the return of the Warm Ages.

Precisely.

However. Back then, people didn't have things that did all the really hard work for them. Like washing machines, electricity, and internal combustion engines. What were basic survival skills then are utterly foreign to their modern descendants.

Back then infant mortality was rife, and people died of the flux more often than you'd think, because they simply didn't understand the concept of disease transmission vectors. Most of us do now, but we don't know how to prevent the transmission of disease without running water, and enclosed sewers.

[Ocean1]

Our consumption of seasonal fruits and vegetables would become seasonal. A lot of things we take for granted like bananas and oranges would largely disappear. The old arts of storing potatoes, onions and other staples would have to be resurrected.
~
we would become a series of communities servicing large towns, that is assuming that anybody would want to remain here.

Dude you're old enough to remember just such a situation, or damn close to it.


This means that many roles and functions our society currently enjoys would be little more than frippery and dismissed almost immediately. People who did not have skills or knowledge that could make a direct and tangiable contribution would be dispensed with.

More or less describes my current feelings.

[Ixion]

Precisely.

However. Back then, people didn't have things that did all the really hard work for them. Like washing machines, electricity, and internal combustion engines. What were basic survival skills then are utterly foreign to their modern descendants.

Back then infant mortality was rife, and people died of the flux more often than you'd think, because they simply didn't understand the concept of disease transmission vectors. Most of us do now, but we don't know how to prevent the transmission of disease without running water, and enclosed sewers.

Course we do. Same way as we did when I was a boy.

I was born in a house without electricity or running water . No enclosed sewer, long drop down the back. Didn't see a washing machine until I was about 10. Didn't have one for many years after. And that's not so many years ago.

What you are not taking into account is knowledge. Even if the world falls apart we won't lose the knowledge. Primitive people died of dysentery because they didn't KNOW how it was caused. We do. We know about trace minerals. We know shitloads of stuff that nobody knew only a few hundred years ago. We KNOW what the causes of infant mortality are (well, were) . Yep, premature or sickly babies aren't going to make it if the world caves in. But no way would we revert to infant mortality like the 19 C.

So we have it both ways. We are still close enough to the world of my childhood to be able to survive without "modern comforts" .Wouldn't care to do without steel, but there'll be enough of that around for along time, scavenged from now useless high tech stuff. And we have the knowledge that we didn't have back then.

No internal conbustion engines would be a shit.

But, we'd survive. Well, survive the natural stuff anyway. Surviving the social disorders might be a bigger problem. I think what ammo one could get ones hands on would be too precious to use for hunting animals. So, back to traps (I reckon there's enough possums in NZ to feed most of the population. Then add bunnies) . And pitfalls. And poison.

[RantyDave]

Economies collapsed, farms were abandoned, whole villages in England.
And this, I think, is my point. History shows that really big disasters - be they famine, war or pestilence - can and do occur on a fairly regular basis. Just because most of us don't realise what a big F-off ecological disaster looks like, doesn't mean it isn't going to happen.

Dave

[MSTRS]

Fookinell...I thought things were bad over there in the Scottish Thread, and then I poke a nose in 'ere...
I'm off to track down my loved ones, and make it the end quicker...
:blink:

[Hitcher]

More or less describes my current feelings.

Take up blacksmithing, or become an armourer. That way, after the Cataclysm, you can name your price!

[idb]

So how would NZ fare with it's selenium deficiency in the soil etc??

Hasn't spoken of NZ, only several case studies - Easter Island, Mayans, Greenland Vikings, Rwanda, Japan, China, a couple of pre-European Pacific Islands, an American Indian tribe I forget the name of and a couple of others.

One interesting irony (to digress for a moment, which I never normally do) is that Australia has the lowest forest cover of any First World country, 14% if I remember rightly.
It is milling that forest cover and chipping it to sell to Japan (which has the highest at 74%) for $7 per tonne.
This is turned into paper and valued at $1,000 per tonne and Australia buys it back!!!
Australia also has the most nutrient-deficient soils of any continent and its forests are unable to regenerate at anywhere near the speed they are being milled.
The argument is that Australia is exporting environmental degradation.

It's all part of globalisation I suppose and the need to keep 'friends' happy.

[SPman]

Nope . Not romanitic. F**k'n hard work.
Shit yeah - we planted and harvested 3 acres of oats, by hand, last year, just to see what it was like!!! Planting was OK, the bloody harvesting almost killed us, but, we did it!
If people have to, they will.

[idb]

...All of our fertiliser is imported...
Then what do we do with all of that lime that is dug up in Southland?

[Hitcher]

Shit yeah - we planted and harvested 3 acres of oats, by hand, last year, just to see what it was like!!! Planting was OK, the bloody harvesting almost killed us, but, we did it!
If people have to, they will.

Another consideration is how much "notice" they will have in order to prepare for such eventualities. If this sudden requirement to become self-sufficient were a sudden thing, then probably a whole growing season would be lost while people got their shit together. This would have a significant effect on dependent populations.

In reality such a change would only be driven by dire calamity, as people could never make themselves "transition" to a lower plane of production without some pressing incentive.

[Hitcher]

Then what do we do with all of that lime that is dug up in Southland?

Lime isn't a "fertiliser". It's a "sweetener". It changes the soil's pH level more than it imparts any meaningful chemicals for plant uptake.

[Ixion]

Dunno where the "all our fertilser is imported" notion came from

Ballance Agri manufacture fertiliser at plants in Mt Maunganui,Awarua, Kapuni and Whangarei. Ravenscroft (surely EVERYBODY ahs heard of *them*) have plants at Dunedin Christchurch and napier.

Probably others too.

And of course that ignores good old dung.

[MSTRS]

Dunno where the "all our fertilser is imported" notion came from

Ballance Agri manufacture fertiliser at plants in Mt Maunganui,Awarua, Kapuni and Whangarei. Ravenscroft (surely EVERYBODY ahs heard of *them*) have plants at Dunedin Christchurch and napier.

Probably others too.

And of course that ignores good old dung.

It's the raw materials that are mostly imported. Ravensdown at Awatoto (for example) is just a place that blends into the finished products.

[Ixion]

That is just global economics , though. It is cheaper to bring phosphate rock from Morroco than to dig it hrere.

But NZ has rock phosphate deposits . Near Clarendon in Otago, and near the Millborn cement site are two I know of.

If we stopped getting it from overseas we would not be bereft .

[Okey Dokey]

There's so many knowledgable people contributing to this thread that I'm hesitant to offer my thoughts. At first I thought it was going to be all doom and gloom, but the further we moved on from the original article the better it got.

What troubles me about these future scenarios is human nature itself. Never mind the dysentary, or the desperate struggle to plant, grow & harvest food. I feel up to that struggle (really)

It's the lawlessness and breakdown of society that alarms me. The dirty and desperate baddies banding together to steal from the good tillers of the earth. I think Ocean1 is right to suggest arming his boat! Maybe that does sound a bit like a survivalist attitude, but mankind always seems to descend into warfare/gangsterism. The Maoris here in NZ had a very tough existence, but according to history found plenty of time to raid the other tribes each year.

There is nothing new about the battle of "good" vs "evil" , but I sure hope I have time to spare from my subsistence farming to bond and train a defensive militia with some good guys...

[Ocean1]

Course we do. Same way as we did when I was a boy.

I was born in a house without electricity or running water . No enclosed sewer, long drop down the back. Didn't see a washing machine until I was about 10. Didn't have one for many years after. And that's not so many years ago.

You have an uncanny knack of making me feel old.

Stop it.


Take up blacksmithing, or become an armourer. That way, after the Cataclysm, you can name your price!

I already am.

And I already do. :yes:

[mstriumph]

Are we able to get Carbon Credits for everytime Fatjim farts?
........... dunno - but carbon TABLETS work a treat for that ---- we feed them to the pup and no-more-mr-stinky!!!:rolleyes:

[mstriumph]

.................



The dirty and desperate baddies banding together to steal from the good tillers of the earth. .......................

you mean like the Tax Office and politicians?? :confused:

[mstriumph]

Another consideration is how much "notice" they will have in order to prepare for such eventualities. If this sudden requirement to become self-sufficient were a sudden thing, then probably a whole growing season would be lost while people got their shit together. This would have a significant effect on dependent populations.

In reality such a change would only be driven by dire calamity, as people could never make themselves "transition" to a lower plane of production without some pressing incentive. as SPman said, we did it because we have enquiring minds - we learnt much, connected with our forebears, lost weight and garnered a useable crop of oats [and many, many blisters!! :confused:]

[mstriumph]

................... This means that many roles and functions our society currently enjoys would be little more than frippery and dismissed almost immediately. People who did not have skills or knowledge that could make a direct and tangiable contribution would be dispensed with.

............ you mean it may be almost worth it :yes:

[Okey Dokey]

you mean like the Tax Office and politicians?? :confused:

Yes, them too! I guess I was picturing the common robber-bandits before the elected ones!

[Pwalo]

So if we all grow our own veges, dig really deep long drops, we'll all be ok.

There are some very thoughtful comments here, but I would like to remind you that things haven't turned to s@#$ yet. They may do in the future, or they may not. Or perhaps we'll be blindsided tonight by an asteroid, and that'll be our lot.

I guess all I'm trying to say is that you're all paranoid, or you've just got too much time on your hands. It's all a bit like the stock market talking itself into a recession.

The truth is we don't know what's going to happen. All we do know is that mankind (in the PC non gender specific meaning) has managed to survive for this long, so I'd take a shot that it'll find a way to cope with whatever comes along.

[Ocean1]

I guess all I'm trying to say is that you're all paranoid,

*Gropes around in what's left of memory...*

"I know I'm paranoid, but am I paranoid enough?"

*Admits defeat and goes to look…*

- Tom Clancy. Apparently.

[Hitcher]

Ballance Agri manufacture fertiliser at plants in Mt Maunganui,Awarua, Kapuni and Whangarei. Ravenscroft (surely EVERYBODY ahs heard of *them*) have plants at Dunedin Christchurch and napier.

Probably others too.

These plants combine ingredients all sourced from overseas. Ravensdown is probably what everybody has heard of.

And a few smears of guano on coastal rocks off the Otago coast do not a phosphate rock resource make. To the nearest significant decimal place, New Zealand has no indigenous phosphate resource that could sensibly be used for agricultural fertiliser purposes.