Crude oil prices - how low?

[mark247]

As Crude hit's its 3 month low, down to around $114USD a barrel after it peaked at $147 around the start of last month where do you think it is going to go from here?

Some economists are saying it's going to go down to as low as $80 a barrel and sit there for a while. Some a saying its going to start rising again very soon and keep going through the roof. From what I have read it is 6 of one and half a dozen of the other.

In my opinion I think ( hopefully ) its slowly going to come to a steady halt at a steady price ( still not cheap ) as China's demand stops growing ( it is down 7% from last year ) and as the United States decreases it's demand.

What do you guys reckon is going to happen in the next year or so?

[idleidolidyll]

The price at the pump will never go back down as low as it was prior to the ill conceived invasion of Iraq; the catalyst for the rises.

Although the oil companies are all making record profits, the way fuel pricing is set up allows them to plead poverty while minting it in reality.

The cost of fuel to gas stations is kept artificially high so these crooks can bleat at how little they are making in profit. In reality only the independents are hurting over this. The oil companies are laughing all the way to the bank as the massive sourcing and refining profits fill their coffers to overflowing.

Yes, the retail price will come back a bit (even with the whining about prices being based on Singapore), but the reality is that the days of cheap petrol are over forever.

That's the way capitalism 'works': oligarchic monopolies are able to manipulate the system and fuck us all over.

[Fatjim]

Yeah, its all the governments fault.

[Forest]

Petrol is still cheap when you consider all the benefits we get from it.

Having said that, I think that the price will drop a little more then stabilise.

[Pedrostt500]

They will find some little skirmish in some back water banana republic to hike the price back up, weather the skirmish happened or not wont matter.
The real trick would be to figure out how to make your own etanol to mix into your fuel so you cut back your need, though this is easier said than done.
We need to start getting smarter as a country and cut back our dependance on imported fuels, the how and where is for better minds than mine to figure out, the future may be with certain types of alge and maybe capturing methane to be converted to petrol.

[mark247]

They will find some little skirmish in some back water banana republic to hike the price back up, weather the skirmish happened or not wont matter.

Although that is usually the case, at the moment the conflict in Georgia, where there are pipe lines running oil to the west, is making no difference to the price. People are ignoring it strangely.

[SPman]

Well - it's going up again.
Let the Russians cut the Baku pipeline and away it'll go again.
Get used to it peeps.

oligarchic monopolies are able to manipulate the system and fuck us all over.
But no one seems to notice...........after all.....it's all Helens fault!

[mark247]

Well - it's going up again.

Just dropped $1.29 a barrel in the last few hours actually lol down to $133.11 now, its great you can basically just watch the price fall at the moment. There is a trend thats been going the last month, it goes down say $4 or so, then slowly rises $2, then drops another $4, then goes up another $2 again and again.

[riffer]

Russian conflict in Georgia causes potential disruption to oil pipelines.
Upcoming US naval blockade (sorry, sanctions - yeah right) of Straight of Hormuz.
NZ dollar on the slide vs US.

Pick any one. Price of gas will not go down any time soon.

[mark247]

NZ dollar on the slide vs US.

I dont fully understand why, but I read that the strengthening US dollar ( not weakening NZ ) is actually helping prices of crude go down.

"A stronger dollar is also pushing prices down. The euro fell Tuesday to $1.4894, while the dollar was holding near 110 yen.

A weak dollar helped boost oil prices earlier this year, because dollar-denominated commodities are often used as hedges against inflation and a falling U.S. currency. But gains in the currency are reversing that trend."

[riffer]

I dont fully understand why, but I read that the strengthening US dollar ( not weakening NZ ) is actually helping prices of crude go down.

True, but despite the government's assurances to the contrary, I haven't seen the price of gas at my local servo go down while the price of crude has dropped by nearly $12 a barrel.

Explain that.

[mark247]

True, but despite the government's assurances to the contrary, I haven't seen the price of gas at my local servo go down while the price of crude has dropped by nearly $12 a barrel.

Explain that.

We are talking about two different things. I'm talking about the price of crude oil in US dollars, and you are talking about petrol at the pump. I can fully understand how a weakening NZ dollar is going to cause petrol prices to possibly increase because crude oil is always sold using the US dollar

[Swoop]

crude oil is always sold using the US dollar
Apart from in Yrp where the Euro is taking over. Iran wants/wanted to trade all their oil in Euro's, just to piss the Americans off.

[kiwi cowboy]

True, but despite the government's assurances to the contrary, I haven't seen the price of gas at my local servo go down while the price of crude has dropped by nearly $12 a barrel.

Explain that.

well there saying that the dollar dropping against the us dollar is negating the drop in oil price lol sucks shit dont it [i dont belive a word they say]

[mark247]

well there saying that the dollar dropping against the us dollar is negating the drop in oil price lol sucks shit dont it [i dont belive a word they say]

of cause it is having an effect. The drop in our dollar means we need more of our money to buy US money, and the crude oil is in US dollar so we need MORE NZ money to buy the same amount.

[riffer]

Wasn't the case when the US dollar was dropping in relation to the NZ dollar. The excuse then was to do with hedging. Don't believe any of it. :angry:

[Naki Rat]

Overall we have taken advantage of the easiest and cheapest oil first, as is the way. From here on in we have to start dealing with oil supplies that are extracted from deeper seas (Southern Basin?), colder climates (Arctic), politically unstable (Russia, Nigeria, Middle East - take your pick), environmentally damaging (Alberta oil sands, sub-Antarctic?), biofuels (get real!), expensive extraction methods (pumping, repressurising reservoirs, oil sands, shale oil), small previously uneconomical oil fields, .....

The word from within the industry is that oil will never be cheaper (other than short term variations) than it is now. Enjoy it while we can afford it :scooter:

52 minutes but essential viewing
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[EJK]

I presume the government will say.... It's double time!

[Murray]

If you think petrol is expensive, try buying water. The good stuff (if there is such a thing) is EVIAN and I believe its nearly $8 a litre. Try spelling EVIAN backwards and you may see how we are all being duped!!

[mark247]

Overall we have taken advantage of the easiest and cheapest oil first, as is the way. From here on in we have to start dealing with oil supplies that are extracted from deeper seas (Southern Basin?), colder climates (Arctic), politically unstable (Russia, Nigeria, Middle East - take your pick), environmentally damaging (Alberta oil sands, sub-Antarctic?), biofuels (get real!), expensive extraction methods (pumping, repressurising reservoirs, oil sands, shale oil), small previously uneconomical oil fields, .....

The word from within the industry is that oil will never be cheaper (other than short term variations) than it is now. Enjoy it while we can afford it :scooter:

52 minutes but essential viewing
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Q3uvzcY2Xug&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Q3uvzcY2Xug&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Even some of the more expensive places to get oil are not THAT expensive. For example

Nation US$/Barrel
Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

Canada oil sands, they break even at $33USD a barrel, thats no way near the $116 it is at the moment..

[mark247]

52 minutes but essential viewing

Just watched the entire thing, very interesting. The world is a changing place.

[Flatcap]

Although the oil companies are all making record profits, the way fuel pricing is set up allows them to plead poverty while minting it in reality.
.

They plead poverty? When did that happen?

Perhaps the government should give them back some of the 75% tax they charge on the price.......:moon:

[Naki Rat]

Even some of the more expensive places to get oil are not THAT expensive. For example

Nation US$/Barrel
Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

Canada oil sands, they break even at $33USD a barrel, thats no way near the $116 it is at the moment..

The prices you are quoting are actual cost of extraction / production whereas the current market rates are a result of supply and demand forces, exacerbated by the speculation of those playing the futures market.
While the current price may seem to be exorbitant they are just an indication of what the world has to look forward to :( That's why it's called the "futures market".

http://www.oil-price.net/ makes for an interesting reading, keeping in mind that it is their intention to sell oil futures.

[mark247]

down to $95 a barrel...... looking good... for now.

[barty5]

down to $95 a barrel...... looking good... for now.

yeh but the price of fuel is still way out of sink to what it was as it was going up is price even with the dollar difference.

[Swoop]

The stockmarket has taken a rodgering today...
It will be interesting to see what will happen. Anything but "up" will surprise me.

[mark247]

The stockmarket has taken a rodgering today...
It will be interesting to see what will happen. Anything but "up" will surprise me.

and look what OPEC has done...

[Hitcher]

Oil is a finite resource.

The world's demand for energy is rising.

Products that are in limited or short supply generally command a price premium related to their scarcity value. The only exception to this rule is diamonds, thanks to some superb marketing by De Beers and others.

The price of petrol at the pump will continue to rise, with the increases due in part to its scarcity and in part due to government taxes intended to discourage us from using the stuff by staying home and growing our own veggies.

[EJK]

Gah petrol price stress... I'm gonna blow my head off... :sunny:

[mark247]

$91!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111oo111nn1111eeeone

[maybe]

Down to $98aus on the news tonight they reckon in Queensland we should be down to between $1.10 to $1.20 a litre by next Tuesday

[mark247]

$73 a barrel now. OPEC must be shitting bricks. CHUR.

[vgcspares]

Bio-diesel (Salad Oil)'s the go, but does your kitchen generate enough used cooking oil for the mileage you do ?

[mark247]

Bio-diesel (Salad Oil)'s the go, but does your kitchen generate enough used cooking oil for the mileage you do ?

Well my neighbour has my bike now and the police have my car so i think an empty room would generate enough fuel for me at the moment!

[vtec]

Price for oil is falling because of this massive recession/depression that the world is about to fall into. This is big. Money has stopped moving. So US won't be buying Chinese goods, chinese won't be buying Australian minerals (or Fonterra's milk for that matter :P) or British oil, and the US and Britain have reached the tipping point where they can't invent money in their banks anymore (bank assets listed as credit derivatives are just a multi-trillion dollar fraud by the banks executives to rationalise their massive paychecks and bonuses). The bailouts will just create hyperinflation, and steal from the needy and give to the rich. The world is quite a mess... give it 2-5 years... And don't buy shares or property or anything... yet. Term deposits are the go as long as the government's are backing up depositor funds.

And everybody HTFU ride your bicycles everywhere. Biological engines are the most efficient engine. As a bike courier I used to buy my food on a maximising calorie per dollar basis. $1 for 500 grams of dates... that'll get me a very long way. $1 for 480grams of creamed rice.

As soon as people realise that the banks are totally bankrupt once you take away the assets listed as credit derivatives, this will get a lot uglier than it already has. This is the reason why the government has had to say that they will guarantee peoples savings. Because people are getting wind of the immensity of the problem, and there will be more runs on banks.

This period in history will be known for how the bankers stopped the world from turning.

[mark247]

This is the reason why the government has had to say that they will guarantee peoples savings. Because people are getting wind of the immensity of the problem, and there will be more runs on banks.

This period in history will be known for how the bankers stopped the world from turning.

I dont think the government could afford to guarantee all the banks. At the end of the day they are probably just saying that in HOPE so people dont go and empty all their accounts and cause bank runs.