Australia's military capability expansion

[Genestho]

"US will remain the most powerful nation in the world for decades to come, its influence in the Asia-Pacific is likely to decline as China's military strength grows..." :crazy: Execrpt taken from the following ..

Story (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/stories/2009/05/02/1245af3e0331)

What's your thoughts...?

[Laxi]

dont have any, I'm a lover not a fighter:love:
:rofl:

[98tls]

Lets just hope the Kiwis dont try and keep up with the Joneses,Jesus they have enough problems working out what ammunitions live and whats not.

[doc]

:zzzz: Don't worry we have a "Free Trade Agreement" with China, so we will be on the winning side. :Oops: except for the cricket , netball n rugby

[Mully]

This entire argument is irrelevant - North Korea is goin to nuke the US with their superior military force.

We've had this discussion people - pay attention.

[Katman]

We live in interesting times.

[wbks]

This entire argument is irrelevant - North Korea is goin to nuke the US with their superior military force.

We've had this discussion people - pay attention.The dude called me a midget, as well!:crybaby:

All in humor of course, but I refer to the avatar...:sweatdrop

[scuzeme]

Dont get me started but now you have.....

US military power is not as "concrete" as everyone may think, the US has had to have a complete paradime shift in regards to how they fight their enemies starting with the tragic 9/11 event.
Its all very well having a gigatonne if nuclear strike capability but you cannot nuke your enemies when they live in your own country or the country of your allies and you cannot succesfully wage a war against an ideology.
Dont be fooled in this day and age the power is shifting to less democratic states and regimes because they are masters at manipulating and controlling their people and keeping their own counties from fragmenting under the weight of ethnic uprisings fueled by ethnic nationalism i.e the break up of the former USSR.
Remember that America is fundamentally a federation of separate states governed by a central federal structure, although its unthinkable the state of the Union could be weakened and lead to fracture and civil war if the conditions were right, America could go the way of the Soviet Union it could realistically crumble over night one day in the future.
The battle lines are completely different than they were 50 - 60 years ago.
the "Big Five" or what is known as the Anglo Saxon alliance USA, UK Canada Australia and NZ (you could probably lump the French in there as well) are countries that had bountiful natural resources and or influence over countries that did (Imperial England) yes NZ was/is part of that alliance becuase it was based on racial moral and religious simularity dating back to "since ages ago"

So where am i going with this....yes Chinese influence will continue to become a more powerful force in our neck of the woods especially if the Americans become more remote, back in the 70's 80's and 90s everyone thought that our Nuclear free stance was pretty cool but now days when there are such great upheavels happening and the power balances are shifting its just plain fucken stupid.
Our politicians especially the labour party with all their political correctness and lets all suck up to the toothless UN and hope they can protect us through diplomacy and while their at it have all men sit on the toilet to take a piss to keep the lesbians happy shit have completely stuffed up this country...we need an air force with attack capability we need the Americans coming here with there big nuclear ships and even bigger nuclear weapons, fuck it lets even get some silos installed!

Its all very well to play the pacifist in a lawful and governed global community but what happens when the chaos comes? what happens when the big boy on the block decides to become a bully what happens when another Country that was too scared to push us around once upon a time now comes and does a stand over on us becuase our big brother has left the building?

Fact is our traditional allies are evaporating we have very little value to them now days anyway, our global near neighbours outside of Australia do not share ancestory or ideology, you my not think religious or socialistic beliefs matters anymore, well it may not matter to you but it matters very much to them.

Dont be fooled and dont be stupid Bob Dylan said in a song that this world is not ruled by democracy its ruled by violence and this is true, you better hope and pray the Americans dont fade out becuase if they do there may be cause to be a little worried.

Call me an alarmist call me a fear monger i prefer to call myself a realist and a student of history.

Cheers.

[James Deuce]

That's "Paradigm".

Peace. Out.

[Headbanger]

This entire argument is irrelevant - North Korea is goin to nuke the US with their superior military force.

We've had this discussion people - pay attention.

I believe the theory put forward by that youngbiker person (anyone know his current name?) was North Korea would ship their entire army around the world in imaginary boats and invade Florida. America would fall with a month.

[Mully]

I believe the theory put forward by that youngbiker person (anyone know his current name?) .

No. Haven't seen him for a while.....

I believe the N Koreans would also remove their shirts so as to not get blood on them?

[Headbanger]

No. Haven't seen him for a while.....


http://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showpost.php?p=2039523&postcount=10055

[Genestho]

dont have any, I'm a lover not a fighter:love:
:rofl:

:whistle: I noted that, by your sig line :bleh: :calm:

[Genestho]

This entire argument is irrelevant - North Korea is goin to nuke the US with their superior military force.

We've had this discussion people - pay attention.

Sorry Dude, missed it!

[Genestho]

Australia building capabilities up over the next 20 years....20??

One would assume with the US a little busy and paying through the nose for the war machine...economic crisis.
Terrorism becoming the new war that can't be beat ...that China or North Korea could be fairly active within 20 years...?

IMHO...It doesn't matter who nukes the US, we will be left vulnerable in this location....

[jtzzr]

IMHO...It doesn't matter who nukes the US, we will be left vulnerable in this location....

We`ll be fine our Air Force will take care of any missiles/bogeys. Iv`e heard they`ve just put new propellers on our 4 Cessnas`.

[spudchucka]

What's your thoughts...?

Good on the Aussies, New Zealand has its head stuck deep inside its own arse when it comes to defence.

[Swoop]

US will remain the most powerful nation in the world for decades to come...
Rubbish.

Anyone who has been studying this area would tell you this as well.
China is now in a position to start doing anything it wants to. It has tied up a serious chunk of the world's manufacturing and production capacity so that when it decides that Taiwan is going to be part of China, the world will not be able to do too much in retaliation.
China hides approximately 2/3rds of it's military budget in "other areas", so if it says it has only spent 50 Billion on their military, just read it that they have really spent 150 Billion.

Underground submarine base being built.
Aircraft carrier purchases.
and other nice toys to play with.

Tawan was recently supplied with a large amount of anti-shipping missiles to deter a seaborne invasion. This has effectively "levelled" the game, but only for the next little while.

China lacks the capability to manufacture jet-fighter engines. It has to purchase these from Russia.

Economically they can do pretty much as they please.
Practically, they are hamstrung in several areas... but these are being worked on with great enthusiasm.


The Aussies are quite correct and are doing the right thing.
NZ should be working with them.

[sil3nt]

Its not really hidden if you come on here and tell everyone you know :whistle:

[spacemonkey]

Well my take on it is that New Zealands economy is far too small to realistically afford a half way decent level of force projection.

If we were hypothetically to bankrupt ourselves buying vast amounts of weapon systems, we STILL would not be able to remotely stop any nation that currently has the ability to stage down this far (USA, Russia, China, France, Japan, India are all capable), Even a "bigger than we can pay for millitary" would just be swatted aside with comparative ease, so it would be a waste of time even trying to foot it in those circles.

We would be far better off specializing in having a smaller highly trained force for use in regional stability ie the Timor or Solomons type deployment.
Sure it doesn't have the macho man/rambo feel good factor of a big military, but that image would be nothing more than an pointless ego trip, I'd rather have a more usable force.

Diplomatically it would also work better for us to have such a force, to be seen as "Good world citizens" rather than a nation seen as being in someone elses pocket and suffering a sort of short mans disease. And that sort of playing nice would win us more friends that can apply pressure if in the unlikely event we were ever on the receiving end of hostile behavior.

Heh a big military budget would also bring me back to having a bit of good old fashioned kiwi cultural cringe again as we would look like pretty dumb, cut price, John Howard style brown noser's. (I'll pass on that thanks) :crazy:

[Genestho]

Rubbish.

Woa there cowboy, that's a quote taken from the Story, appropriate quotation marks and reference to story updated!! Apologies!!


Anyone who has been studying this area would tell you this as well.
China is now in a position to start doing anything it wants to. It has tied up a serious chunk of the world's manufacturing and production capacity so that when it decides that Taiwan is going to be part of China, the world will not be able to do too much in retaliation.
China hides approximately 2/3rds of it's military budget in "other areas", so if it says it has only spent 50 Billion on their military, just read it that they have really spent 150 Billion.

Underground submarine base being built.
Aircraft carrier purchases.
and other nice toys to play with.

Tawan was recently supplied with a large amount of anti-shipping missiles to deter a seaborne invasion. This has effectively "levelled" the game, but only for the next little while.

China lacks the capability to manufacture jet-fighter engines. It has to purchase these from Russia.

Economically they can do pretty much as they please.
Practically, they are hamstrung in several areas... but these are being worked on with great enthusiasm.


The Aussies are quite correct and are doing the right thing.
NZ should be working with them.

I agree, I remember having this Chinese industrial revolution chat years ago and the impact of that...

I agree, NZ should be working with Aussies

[scuzeme]

While the rest of the world are thinking in terms of the next 20 to 50 years the Chinese think in terms of what they want to do in the next 200 years! i shit you not.

The Chinese do not yet have the commitment or capability to invade Taiwan without sparking international condemnation and massive losses but they do have a plan and they will follow it through no matter how long it takes.

Wars between the super powers have been going on since the end of world war two they have been waged in client countries through proxy and more recently (from the 1970's on) in the sphere of economics.
The socialists have wisened up to the fact that they couldnt gain global ascendency through force of arms and aggressive foriegn policy and that their economies werent robust and wealthy enough to gain ascendency through economical means either.
The Soviet block didnt give in to the west they just decided to restructure to come back stronger and fight another day as their current economies couldnt support the military or stave off Western economic manipulation.
Why did the Chinese Elite suddenly decide that "to get rich was glorious" for ths exact same reason they have restructured their economy to generate vast wealth and vast power inorder to go toe to toe and beat the West at its own game!

At the end of the day i dont think that the Chinese people are going to invade anyone becuase its not good business, but what they will do is become the big boy in the neighbourhood just as the Americans have been doing for the last 50 years or more manipulating and coercing weaker nations for there own ends.
If your going to be worried it might make more sense to be worried about the likes of Indonesia.
We have bragged and relied on our remoteness being a reason that we will never be in the sites schemes and plots of the big players, but the very thing that we thought made us safe may undoubtedly become the verything that endangers us as the global picture becomes increasingly...liquid.

Think of it as a spinning top which is slowly losing speed and beginning to wobble before it falls over thats exactly where we are at the moment, i think we can look forward to some momentus and unprecidented things happening in the future i just hope they are good things for us as a Nation.
I know i would feel alot safer if we had a state of the art defence stratagey that recognises that we may not be able to rely on our allies and one that centres on protecting us from suprise seaborne invasion.

Better still get the states to set up some big military bases here included in my shopping list would be a submarine base or two and a number of multitipped 20 megatonne warheads then we'd get some fucken big repect round this neck of the woods hahahaaaaa.

We should atleast be working with the Auzzies instead of acting like their poor country bumpkin cuzzies its down right embarrasing.
The pacifists will continue to rely on good moral upstanding and the goodness and sense of justice that lives in every mans heart regardless of color or creed (yes you can quote the Tui add right here guys), a man a women even a child and certainly a Nation will do anything to save there existence, way of life when it comes down to it, anything even blood shed and violence can be justified when its a means to an end,

In the mean time its a nice Sunday afternoon and i think i;ll go out and take the Sexy 1098s for a spin cheers.

[gegvasco]

As an Aussie military guy who works in the areas directly affected by this Policy:

Sadly, affordability is all that matters when it comes to Democratic government defence policies. Even our defence policy is entirely based on what we think we can afford. And what we can afford is in large part determined by the size of our population. So I think it is a natural progression that NZ will not have the sort of capabilities that we have. It makes sense to have niche capabilities that you can deploy for things like stabilisation ops which have a great effect on reducing the need for a "ring of steel" around NZ. You also need a robust maritime surveillance and border protection capability. While I know you have some assets in this respect (and from personal experience, extremely switched-on operators), there are probably some gaps in capacity and technology.

I'm no fan of your previous government, and especially not a fan of the UN which I think is entirely useless in the modern realm of terrorism and asymmetric warfare, but I never really disagreed with NZ cancelling the orders for F16s and Collins submarines (remember that NZ was looking at buying Collins # 7 and 8). They are big ticket items with a big support tail that would have sucked up a lot of constrained resources that could have been used to much better effect in other more pressing areas.

And let's face it, if the balloon really goes up, Australia will cop it first. Don't discount your geographic isolation as a credible deterrent. Look at the Japs in WWII. They were overstretched trying to get to Australia and once they suffered some defeats that severed some critical supply lines, they stalled. Compare that to the Brits in Singapore who were too close to be able to stop the deluge being thrown at them. They were one of the closest targets, were smacked early and didn't have a chance. And any country that can knock us off (easy for some of the bigger players), will then use Aus as a base to knock off NZ. So by then, there will be no way to defend NZ so why even bother having 20 fighters? It won't make one single bit of difference when it comes time to use them for real.

[scuzeme]

Very good points...
I think that NZ would be more likely a better staging area to invade Auzzie because we are the soft underbelly, unless of course your using the Islands north of Dawin.

The only real deterent is some nice nukes
.
If there is a Nuclear exchange we are all fucked anyway, if a country is greedily eyeing you up and you have Nukes then even a limited nuke exchange would destroy the prize (famous quote from JFK "even the fruits of victory would be ash's in our mouths").

If having Nukes makes you a Nuclear target it also makes your enemy think very seriously about coming after you because at some stage even the loser has the ability to fuck you up badly, what the hell they are losing anyway.

Hmmmm i think ive been waching too much history channel.

[Headbanger]

I reckon we need to train some Ninjas.

Who wants to fuck with Ninjas?

Nobody, that's who.

That Aside, China were THE SUPERPOWER for 2000 years, Europe overtook them and then imploded,letting America move to the forefront,But this has only been the last 200 years, China are putting themselves back on top as the dominant player, well, they have done that already, the next step is to show any of the little infant countries like Yankee land exactly where the power is.

All Hail our new masters, HAIL, HAIL.

[davereid]

Very good points...
I think that NZ would be more likely a better staging area to invade Auzzie because we are the soft underbelly, unless of course your using the Islands north of Dawin.

Absolutely true. During WW2 the Japanese seriously considered invading NZ before Australia. They reasoned that a toehold in Darwin still put them thousands of miles from inhabited Australia - the real targets being the southern coastal cities. They also felt that Australia could be re-inforced and provisioned indefinately from NZ, and that NZ deep water ports meant that they would have immense difficulty controlling the Tasman Sea.

Invade NZ first and you turn it all around. You have the ports, the food production, control of a massive area of the pacific ocean, and easy dominance of the tasman sea.

[Mully]

I reckon we need to train some Ninjas.

Who wants to fuck with Ninjas?

Nobody, that's who.

And Chuck Norris.

Chuck Norris and Ninjas FTW

[spacemonkey]

Nah stuff the ninjas!
And didn't Norris get beaten by one of those Chinese your so worried about? (Bruce Lee).

What we need is Pirates for teh win! :yes:
Couple of dozen Somalian's and we'd be set.... give em a speed boat and a cheap as chips Ak and they run rings around any navy! :laugh:

[gegvasco]

Absolutely true. During WW2 the Japanese seriously considered invading NZ before Australia. They reasoned that a toehold in Darwin still put them thousands of miles from inhabited Australia - the real targets being the southern coastal cities. They also felt that Australia could be re-inforced and provisioned indefinately from NZ, and that NZ deep water ports meant that they would have immense difficulty controlling the Tasman Sea.

Invade NZ first and you turn it all around. You have the ports, the food production, control of a massive area of the pacific ocean, and easy dominance of the tasman sea.

That's fine as long as you have unimpeded control of the sea. Moving hundreds of thousands of troops from Asia to NZ non-stop would be an enormous undertaking and unless they had an enormous level of sea superiority, the sorts the yanks can inject into a theatre with a Carrier Battle Group or two, then it is an extremely risky venture and if the worst happens, could turn the war the other way.

Whereas by leapfrogging through the Malaysian Peninsula, Sumatra, Java, Papua then Australia, the amphibious assault distances are less and require less sea-based air power as land-based air cover will still be in range. Supply chains node-to-node are also shorter which provides flexibility and response.

It could be done from NZ but only if you had an unparalleled Naval presence. Once they get there, then actually taking control might be easy but then supply can still be threatened.

[scuzeme]

Give me Nukes! I want some Nukes! :2guns:

[Swoop]

Australia will cop it first. Don't discount your geographic isolation as a credible deterrent.
Quite so. NZ would be much better off to work with Oz and provide support wherever possible. We will never be able to fend off an attacker, but will be able to work alongside our Digger friends if the guano does hit the rotating oscillator.

[davereid]

That's fine as long as you have unimpeded control of the sea.

Which is exactly what the Japs had.

The USA wasnt in the war until Pearl Harbour in 1941.

After Pearl Harbour the japs took only weeks to capture Singapore, at which time the japs had complete command of the pacific. It took the US 6 months to be ready to rock, in fact, the japs never suffered a defeat until the middle of 1942.

The japs did, of course invade Australia directly, which is the likely route of any future conflict.

[doc]

I like the idea that was promoted a few years ago of us supplying the men for an NZ batalion stationed in Aussie, for their use. We pay and support them, the Aussies deploy them how they want, that way we get our men trained with the top aussie gear. Only problem is raising enough recruits , we have enough trouble mainting military strength now.

[spacemonkey]

I like the idea that was promoted a few years ago of us supplying the men for an NZ batalion stationed in Aussie, for their use. We pay and support them, the Aussies deploy them how they want, that way we get our men trained with the top aussie gear. Only problem is raising enough recruits , we have enough trouble mainting military strength now.

I can see the job ad's now!

The Aussies need new cannon fodder..... UNCLE RUDDY WANTS YOU! *insert butchered uncle Sam pic here*

[doc]

I can see the job ad's now!

The Aussies need new cannon fodder..... UNCLE RUDDY WANTS YOU! *insert butchered uncle Sam pic here*

Exactly what the Brits did with us at Galliopoli

[davereid]

I like the idea that was promoted a few years ago of us supplying the men for an NZ batalion stationed in Aussie, for their use. We pay and support them, the Aussies deploy them how they want, that way we get our men trained with the top aussie gear. Only problem is raising enough recruits , we have enough trouble mainting military strength now.

We used to have a skyhawk squadron stationed in aussie methinks.. as aged as they were, they were still possibly an effective maritime strike aircraft.

[puddytat]

I wonder what the Worlds reaction would be if the Govt were to announce
that we were looking to acquire nuclear tipped cruise missiles or rockets....:nya:

[Genestho]

I wonder what the Worlds reaction would be if the Govt were to announce
that we were looking to acquire nuclear tipped cruise missiles or rockets....:nya:

Tear inducing laughter?:woohoo:

[scuzeme]

Tear inducing laughter?:woohoo:


Give us nukes, we want nukes, nukes are good nukes,, nukes nukes! (in a Homer Simpson voice).

We could always train possum ninjas we have plenty of them AND they have TB! :woohoo:

[spacemonkey]

Just came across this bit written by a guy I know from the surf club on this subject, quite an interesting read.

Reorganizing the defense (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0905/S00152.htm)

[Genestho]

Thanks for the link Spacemonkey!!! That's a good read!!!!!

Paul's raised alot of good points, and issues there!

Amongst other comments there, I particularly note the observation of where Australia's interests shift beyond border control, possibly allying with US, where as NZ has largely a pacifist orientation.

"Will NZDF personnel and assets be deployed to Australian conflict zones regardless of New Zealand’s stand on the issue?"

The determination of policies and process.....
It all seems a complicated issue that does need forethought by experts!

"Whether or not closer integration with Australia is an appropriate course of action, or whether the tactical air wing needs to be reconstituted, or whether emphasis should shift away from the Army to the other services given likely future strategic scenarios, as well as a host of related issues, needs to be debated with such objectives in mind.

Anything short of this is waste of time and taxpayer money. Yet, as things stand, the Defense Review Board appears to have neither the personnel nor the charter to be anything other than that."
Good read indeed!!
Cheers!

[spacemonkey]

Yeah bit bit of Paul's blog I find worrying is that the new Defense white paper is being written by a committee of bean counters with no experience in either defense or security matters and is headed by Mapp who has a reputation for being a bit of an easily led sycophant. :doh: