US Dollar movements - Advice required.

**Devil** · 2nd July 2009, 11:31

Looking at ordering luggage for the new bike from the US. Can anyone shed any light on where the dollar is going at the moment?
Using www.xe.com/ucc it's reporting US64c for conversions to NZD.
Is now a good time to do it? Is anything expected to change any time soon?

**Mort** · 2nd July 2009, 11:54

I'm sure every currency dealer in the world would like to know the answer to that question - may be they should put a post on KB too.....

Here's the trend over last 2 years

More technical analysis can be found here : CLICK

**slofox** · 2nd July 2009, 11:56

Best guess is kinda stable for now...(we hope)

**Devil** · 2nd July 2009, 12:00

Originally Posted by slofox

Best guess is kinda stable for now...(we hope)

Kinda what I was thinking. I dont think it's going to head in either direction in a hurry at the moment.

**ManDownUnder** · 2nd July 2009, 12:23

Originally Posted by Devil

Kinda what I was thinking. I dont think it's going to head in either direction in a hurry at the moment.

Some punters are picking it will go up, and others are picking it will drop... I know - useless info but that's the truth of it.

There's a major event happening on Friday night (around midnight NZT) that could affect it by a cent or two if that's important to you.

**Devil** · 2nd July 2009, 12:28

Cheers for the advice. A cent or two here or there isn't really going to do too much to US$900 so thats cool. Have ordered!

Now, we wait!

**jimevo** · 2nd July 2009, 15:32

0.64 is fair value for the Kiwi... consider you would have only got 0.55 last November (I bought Kiwi at that rate retail...)

**cowpoos** · 2nd July 2009, 17:01

Originally Posted by Devil

Looking at ordering luggage for the new bike from the US. Can anyone shed any light on where the dollar is going at the moment?
Using www.xe.com/ucc it's reporting US64c for conversions to NZD.
Is now a good time to do it? Is anything expected to change any time soon?

It should be lower...but its not! TXT I got back from a very informed person.

**YellowDog** · 2nd July 2009, 17:06

I bought my Tiger from LA when the rate was @ 80.6

**AllanB** · 2nd July 2009, 17:25

Buy buy buy

Sell sell sell sell

No

Buy buy

I think you have made a wise move buying now - there are millions of Jap bonds coming up for renewal about now and they may take the $ outta NZ dollars.

**uso_lelei** · 2nd July 2009, 17:34

Any forex traders on KB?

**YellowDog** · 2nd July 2009, 18:18

I do trade currency for profit.

I always buy US$ @ >80c and aim to sell <60.

Usually takes no more than 3 months.

At the moment if you can get 65 you will be doing well.

Heading down at the moment for a little correction to help the exporters.

If you look at the economies of each country, the US$ is far too high and the NZ$ is farr too low. These facts have no bearing on what the rates will do. The US$ is too high due to the economies of other countries and price of oil also being based on US$.

Good luck.

**AllanB** · 2nd July 2009, 18:49

Originally Posted by YellowDog

The US$ is too high due to the economies of other countries and price of oil also being based on US$.

Good luck.

I expect in my lifetime to see the Euro as the global dominant currency.

**Winston001** · 2nd July 2009, 19:03

Originally Posted by Mort

I'm sure every currency dealer in the world would like to know the answer to that question - may be they should put a post on KB too.....

Here's the trend over last 2 years

....and the trend is your friend.

The $NZ has broken above the 50 day and 200 day moving average, and the trend is up. So....technically its bullish. Continue to rise.

Warning - any prediction I make is absolutely guaranteed to result in the opposite result.

**Winston001** · 2nd July 2009, 19:08

Originally Posted by AllanB

I think you have made a wise move buying now - there are millions of Jap bonds coming up for renewal about now and they may take the $ outta NZ dollars.

Must admit I don't really understand this. Uridashi bonds are actually $US but invested in $NZ, isued by Japanese. Go figure.

Apart from that, as Yellowdog says the US$ is still overvalued given the ginormous American government deficit.