How would you rebuild Christchurch?

[cromagnon]

"we have a 23% chance within the next year of a shake between 6 and 7 on the Richter scale, and dropping to 10% over the next 2 years. There is a chance of over 90% that we will have another shake between 5 and 6 in the next twelve months, dropping to over 70% in that two year horizon"

http://suewellsnz.wordpress.com/2011...eat-eqnz-chch/

[Winston001]

Ironically BECA, MWH, SKM..... all are announcing massive (as in record) profits in NZ this year. I can't imagine why

Not disagreeing with you, just another point of view.

The rebuild of Christchurch hasn't even started and it will take a long time. It is not possible for these engineering firms to have made any significant money yet. Yes, they will have had a boom on assessment work for damaged buildings but that is small overall. And you'll have noticed EQC are very slow at paying the bills.

Many businesses all over the developed world are reporting profits - but that is because they've made losses in 08, 09, 10. The world economy is finally starting to recover (everyone hopes) but the profit announcements need to be viewed in the context of losses.

Finally, a share-broker recently advised selling Fletcher Building which has the main contract for Christchurch work. Why? Because the profit from the work will be at least two years out but FBU has risen in price as if the profits had already been made. Interestingly FBU share price is going down and is now well below the 50 day moving average.

[avgas]

The rebuild of Christchurch hasn't even started and it will take a long time. It is not possible for these engineering firms to have made any significant money yet. Yes, they will have had a boom on assessment work for damaged buildings but that is small overall. And you'll have noticed EQC are very slow at paying the bills.

Finally, a share-broker recently advised selling Fletcher Building......(too much to quote)

Yeah, I would like to believe that.....but unfortunately its not the case.
FBU is NZ based where as all the others are global, and a big chunk of them have end of year not on June.

EQC is slow and paying bills to those whom are doing the work, consultants are simply there to approve the work so get paid asap. While I think your right, and I think they haven't got the whole bill in their books.....it kinda scares me that they are already laughing their way to the bank and nothing has been built yet.

There is a saying and it goes "Consultants consult, and its of their opinion you pay them". Not saying they are all bad - but the general consensus of the culture is to feed the machine. And the big consultancy have a big machine to feed.