How much longer do we have for private motor vehicles?

[rainman]

I think the electric vehicle era will be pretty good.

Yup, but it ain't happening terribly fast.

It's nowhere near past peak. Speaking to my petrologist brother-in-law the issue isn't that we're runnin gout of oil. We find more and more of the stuff all the time, the problem is developing cheap, clean technologies to remove it from whatever medium it is stored in. We've most of the easily accessible oil fields mapped. The next series of explorations starting up is oil sands and shale bearing oil, both of which require very different methods to extract than the up until now free flowing stuff that can be pumped.

The Great Australian Bight is a massive oil field for instance, it's just that the oil is stored in shale.

The myth I'm referring to is that the oil is running out. It isn't, what may run out IF we don't develop the technologies to extract oil from these other media is supply. Supply will cease to match demand.

Who is saying the oil is running out? That's just a strawman. Peak oil has always been about the peak of cheap and easily accessible oil (available at approximately current prices), not so much absolute peak hydrocarbons. Cost-effectiveness is mainly why old oilfields are abandoned - if economics says you can't extract from a field and make an obscene profit at current prices, then you'll find another field from which you can. And when you run out of those, then prices go up, at least until demand collapses (not generally a good thing in the absence of alternatives). When prices go too high the economy stops working, as we have seen. If demand is too low it means the economy isn't working, at least until we get a real decoupling between energy and economic progress.

And you do have an energetic limit too - if it takes more energy to get the stuff out of the ground than you get from what you're getting out of the ground, then unless you can substitute readily-available input energy to the process, you're screwed.

The issue is not insurmountable but is serious, and needs major work to get sorted (refer the Hirsch report from a few years ago). The problem is we are following the same pattern as we have done on climate change and are resorting to denial, which is not a prudent means of risk mitigation, and won't fix anything.

[Big Dave]

Yup, but it ain't happening terribly fast.

It is in some sectors - e-scooters will be plentiful in 3 years time. Yamaha alone plans to make millions of them.

[Big Dave]

The problem is we are following the same pattern as we have done on climate change and are resorting to denial,

And hey! The people whose wages are paid by the fossil fuel burning power generation companies deny this.

[scissorhands]

Cars should be sooooooo different already except for oil tycoons. Imagine the clean air for kids going to school if waiting traffic shut down their engines and crawled on electric. Shame

All that Toyota unsafe in the media 2 years back was a warning

[steve_t]

What ever happened to biofuel made from human excrement? There's definitely a lot of that flying around - an abundant, renewable resource

[bogan]

I think the electric vehicle era will be pretty good.

I'm looking forward to it. Leave the oil for applications that really need it, like motorsports

Also, you guys are forgetting a big player which has just joined the mix

Z will take care of us

[Indiana_Jones]

I'm looking forward to it. Leave the oil for applications that really need it, like motorsports

Also, you guys are forgetting a big player which has just joined the mix

Z will take care of us

-Indy

[Big Dave]

As long as I can still drink beer and listen to my LPs I'm happy

-Indy

What do you think vinyl is made from?

[Indiana_Jones]

What do you think vinyl is made from?

lol i already own them though

But you make a good point, a lot of people forgot how much stuff is made from oil based products.

-Indy

[Big Dave]

Worldwide spatula shortages

[Winston001]

As we pass the crest of peak oil production and consumption levels yet continue to grow; how much longer is the future of private motor vehicles as we know them?

With oil prices rising incessantly, emergency reserves being released and no replaceable solution in near sight, how long before daily private vehicles are a thing of the past? 10 years? 15?
.

A thoughtful question.

Tell me: in humanity's recent history (say, 2000 years), when has technology failed to provide a solution? When has our quality of life ever fallen?

[imdying]

A thoughtful question.

Tell me: in humanity's recent history (say, 2000 years), when has technology failed to provide a solution? When has our quality of life ever fallen?

Have we ever had the population up around 6 billion and climbing fast?

[Brett]

Screw it, if it is gonna run out, I am going to have some fun before it does. I will happily be upgrading my GSXR600 to a 2010 Yamaha R1, all going well will also be buying an Audi RS4 which is not exactly light on fuel either. I love my cars and bikes, they are more than just transport to me, so will happily spend discretionary income on them. If it runs out, well...bugger. That said, I agree that our current model for personal transportation is ridiculous. I had to drive 150km around town today which took me the good part of the morning and early afternoon. I WISH there was another viable means of transportation around town that I could utilise for menial day to day errand running.

[Scuba_Steve]

I think the electric vehicle era will be pretty good.

just the laugh I needed for a Fri afternoon.


They already have plenty of alternatives ready to go should the time comes that oil is no longer a viable option, hell we can already artificially make a petrol replacement no engine or petrol station alterations needed

[Brian d marge]

It is in some sectors - e-scooters will be plentiful in 3 years time. Yamaha alone plans to make millions of them.

They are already available , and F,ing cheap ...I'm considering buying one for pottering around on

http://prozza.com/index.html

the cheapest one can be had for 80 000 yen NEW and 138 retail .....

ONE BIG PROBLEM ...................... Made in china , with Chinese errmm quality ( ie no lead in the battery one suspects !)

Me why am I future proofing ? not because of peak oil , or the environment ,,,( a little )

but I don't want to work !! ie be a slave to a process or system

Rousseau: said some thing like ... Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

Ill try my best to avoid, the system.

Spuds anyone?

Stephen