Who will win the 2011 election?

[Bald Eagle]

So the US govt converted the private bankers debt to state debt in the bail out in round one and now they are in the poo.

NZ Govt is in the same hole and our beloved head banker mr Key wants to sell our ladders to help us get out of the hole ?

[oneofsix]

So the US govt converted the private bankers debt to state debt in the bail out in round one and now they are in the poo.

NZ Govt is in the same hole and our beloved head banker mr Key wants to sell our ladders to help us get out of the hole ?

Not quite the same hole but The Right Honorable Mr Key would like us to believe so.
He isn't a banker he is a market player, hence why he wants to sell stuff off, bankers like to hold onto stuff.
Love the way everything still hangs on these credit ratings, by the same group of people that sold the western world down the frigging river in the first place.
Better get used to the Niqab

[tri boy]

Slight side issue worth noting about J Key.
Not long ago, (about six months), he was borrowing in excess of what was required to cover our lons/interest.
In hindsight this was actually a smart money move.
He effectively has helped to cover our arses are little bit more.
Getting that money was easy compared to the hoops Govts will need to jump through today.
He's either very smart,or very lucky.
I say smart

[Bald Eagle]

He's either very smart,or very lucky.
I say smart

Or he has a gambling problem, and it's our money he's playing with.

[mashman]

He's either very smart,or very lucky.
I say smart

Or he was insider trading/dealing. I know which one I'm going for

[shrub]

Slight side issue worth noting about J Key.
Not long ago, (about six months), he was borrowing in excess of what was required to cover our lons/interest.
In hindsight this was actually a smart money move.
He effectively has helped to cover our arses are little bit more.
Getting that money was easy compared to the hoops Govts will need to jump through today.
He's either very smart,or very lucky.
I say smart

Hmmm... I think the chances of Dear Leader knowing that we were about to hit the current economic storm are on a par with me knowing the final score of the RWC. In the last budget he and farmer Bill announced that over the next four years we would be experiencing GDP growth of 1.8%, 4.0%, 3.0% and 2.7%. If he could see what was ahead he was either telling porkies about the growth rates or he knows something nobody else does because those figures were going to be a stretch if the global economy picked up and are about as likely now as me winning at Phillip Island on my old airhead.

[Oscar]

Hmmm... I think the chances of Dear Leader knowing that we were about to hit the current economic storm are on a par with me knowing the final score of the RWC. In the last budget he and farmer Bill announced that over the next four years we would be experiencing GDP growth of 1.8%, 4.0%, 3.0% and 2.7%. If he could see what was ahead he was either telling porkies about the growth rates or he knows something nobody else does because those figures were going to be a stretch if the global economy picked up and are about as likely now as me winning at Phillip Island on my old airhead.

Depending on how far out we're talking, this economic storm was not hard to pick.
The Americans have had trouble balancing their budget before, and the EU bond problem with Italy and Spain has beem brewing for quite a while now.

In respect of GDP growth, the economy is still growing (0.8% in the quarter ending 3/11). I don't see how you're able to criticise thoseprojection (which were made by public servants, not English) until the period is up. Me, I reckon that the GDP figure for this year won't be far wrong.

[Oscar]

Or he was insider trading/dealing. I know which one I'm going for

I have to give you credit for the fact that even an obvious complete lack of knowledge on the subject at hand will not stop you from making a comment that makes you look like a complete muppet. Good for you...

[shrub]

Depending on how far out we're talking, this economic storm was not hard to pick.
The Americans have had trouble balancing their budget before, and the EU bond problem with Italy and Spain has beem brewing for quite a while now.

In respect of GDP growth, the economy is still growing (0.8% in the quarter ending 3/11). I don't see how you're able to criticise thoseprojection (which were made by public servants, not English) until the period is up. Me, I reckon that the GDP figure for this year won't be far wrong.

I agree, this economic storm has been looming for a while and one of the reasons I really struggled with believing Treasury's forcasts. I may be proven wrong, but I really can't for the life of me see how we will come even close to those figures given the current economic strategies and probably the only thing to save our bacon will be the quake and the attendant influx of re-insurance money. Which will be likely to drive up our exchange rate even further. I suspect the GDP figures for 2011 will be close to 1.8, but are unlikely to get any higher for a long time.

[mashman]

I have to give you credit for the fact that even an obvious complete lack of knowledge on the subject at hand will not stop you from making a comment that makes you look like a complete muppet. Good for you...

Nothing wrong with heckling from the stalls . I'm sure the thought never crossed his mind to ask Obama how his economy was ticking along...

[Winston001]

Our power companies are very profitable, are increasing in value and as energy demands rise and cheap oil runs out they will become a total gold mine. Selling them now would be ...DUMB, DUMB, DUMB.

Good post and I'll just pick up on this point.

You are assuming a linear track into the future. A few big electricity generating plants (dams, geothermal, gas) and nationwide reticulation.

Here's an alternative view:

1. Each house/building generates its own power. Already a solar-power paint has been invented.

2. Future appliances will come with their own power-pack, either rechargeable or replaceable. Yes, it requires new battery technology and there are some interesting discoveries out there.

3. Industries generate their own power on-site.

I can't see heavy users getting away from reticulated electricity but apart from them, no need to send power hundreds of kms with built-in losses. The giant power companies will shrink. So we'd be hedging our bets by sharing ownership and getting some money in right now. Could be a very wise move.

[Winston001]

And I disagree entirely about emotions. One does not need to be stoically unemotional and Spock-like to have a rational debate. All one needs is to maintain emotional control. Passion is a good thing.

Damn. This entity has failed the Turing Test again. Will reboot - ah, that is think again before proceeding.

I'm particularly interested in your detailed thinking about why Fortress NZ was a bad thing.

You mean it wasn't??

Ok. The mists of time draw darkly across the intervening 30 years but here's some thoughts.

The 1970s and early 1980s were a time of strong government intervention and control of our lives in New Zealand. MRP - Maximum Retail Prices - retailers were told the most they could charge. Import and Export Licences - you couldn't simply go and buy something from overseas to sell here - you needed a Licence. Similarly with selling overseas - get a Licence.

Mortgages were controlled - first mortgage max interest 11%, second mortgage 14%. The market rates were 13-18% at the time. Applying for a mortgage depended upon how much money your bank was allowed to allocate that month.

Clothing and manufacturing industries were subsidised by taxpayers.

Norm Kirk, and Robert Muldoon each tightened the level of control but my memory is Muldoon took the most steps. The theory was that if NZ just held off the outside world long enough, our day in the sun would come again.

Well, yes it did but not until the 1990s.

I vividly remember the Fourth Labour government in 1984 and what an unexpected breath of fresh air it brought. Rules and regulations were swept away, the economy and our lives were opened. I specifically remember saying that if I lost my job it was worth it just to live in a free society.

For the sake of accuracy, Ronald Regan and Margaret Thatcher did the same ahead of us in 1982.

[SPman]

At the moment NZ still has relatively low levels of government debt - a legacy of the previous government but that is increasing steadily. As a businessman i know that when you're in the shit financially you have 3 options:
1. Increase your income
2. Cut expenditure
3. Sell assets and either lease them back or do without.
.....................

Once again - it's trying to run a large, multi varied social organisation - a country, as a business - and it JUST DOESN'T WORK! Whenever it's tried, it fails abysmally. People are not commodities, whatever the commercial plutocrats say!

Good post and I'll just pick up on this point. .....

Good ideas but....unless people have guns to their heads, they wouldn't do it - "Think of the cost!!! The Children, The Children"........

[Winston001]

Yes I know - Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia and Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, both Fortress states.

With death penalties. And government control of citizens.

[shrub]

Once again - it's trying to run a large, multi varied social organisation - a country, as a business - and it JUST DOESN'T WORK! Whenever it's tried, it fails abysmally. People are not commodities, whatever the commercial plutocrats say!
Good ideas but....unless people have guns to their heads, they wouldn't do it - "Think of the cost!!! The Children, The Children"........

You mean running a country requires unique skills? I thought if you were a successful money trader that qualified you perfectly.

I agree, running a country requires very different approach which is why something as simplistic as slashing bureaucracy (reducing costs) is not a good idea, but when you aren't earning enough (which we aren't), then you have ti find ways to increase your income which means increasing exports and potentially increasing taxes.