Who will win the 2011 election?

[shrub]

Good post and I'll just pick up on this point.

You are assuming a linear track into the future. A few big electricity generating plants (dams, geothermal, gas) and nationwide reticulation.

Here's an alternative view:

1. Each house/building generates its own power. Already a solar-power paint has been invented.

2. Future appliances will come with their own power-pack, either rechargeable or replaceable. Yes, it requires new battery technology and there are some interesting discoveries out there.

3. Industries generate their own power on-site.

I can't see heavy users getting away from reticulated electricity but apart from them, no need to send power hundreds of kms with built-in losses. The giant power companies will shrink. So we'd be hedging our bets by sharing ownership and getting some money in right now. Could be a very wise move.

An extremely good idea and I would extend that to business premises. Aside from reducing the need for importing fossil fuels, building more dams etc, it allows individual property owners and communities to be self sufficient and even earn money by selling excess power to the grid. Having lived in a city where some areas spent quite a while without power - we were without for a week - micro generation is a brilliant idea, but can you imagine any government supporting it? Yeah, those idiot Greens are into it, but I can't imagine anyone else.

[Brian d marge]

Damn. This entity has failed the Turing Test again. Will reboot - ah, that is think again before proceeding.






You mean it wasn't??

Ok. The mists of time draw darkly across the intervening 30 years but here's some thoughts.

The 1970s and early 1980s were a time of strong government intervention and control of our lives in New Zealand. MRP - Maximum Retail Prices - retailers were told the most they could charge. Import and Export Licences - you couldn't simply go and buy something from overseas to sell here - you needed a Licence. Similarly with selling overseas - get a Licence.

Mortgages were controlled - first mortgage max interest 11%, second mortgage 14%. The market rates were 13-18% at the time. Applying for a mortgage depended upon how much money your bank was allowed to allocate that month.

Clothing and manufacturing industries were subsidised by taxpayers.

Norm Kirk, and Robert Muldoon each tightened the level of control but my memory is Muldoon took the most steps. The theory was that if NZ just held off the outside world long enough, our day in the sun would come again.

Well, yes it did but not until the 1990s.

I vividly remember the Fourth Labour government in 1984 and what an unexpected breath of fresh air it brought. Rules and regulations were swept away, the economy and our lives were opened. I specifically remember saying that if I lost my job it was worth it just to live in a free society.

For the sake of accuracy, Ronald Regan and Margaret Thatcher did the same ahead of us in 1982.

A change may have been needed but was it the right change? and in the beginning Mrs T may have been the right medicine ...... the waste ground it produced .... oh wait same in NZ .... Markets are brutal, and have no place in a compassionate society. They have there place , but not when the fundamentals or basic human needs are interfered with , Food, Education , health and Internet ( well ...... sex is a basic need and without the Internet how would I get me end away !)

There are a few thing that would transform NZ simple things .... Cheap good quality food we are after all a sodding great garden. ( get those prisoners working )
Housing, you only have 4 million people HOW the hell do you get homeless people , or houses that are out of the reach of the working man .....
Health, basic health doesnt need to be imported from America , I mean if the dental nurse can do it, or the district nurse in her Morrie Minor ..... give em an Ipad , or a mobile telephone if they need to comunicate

Work schemes..... Aka the dole ... sand shoes anyone ......... wheres me spuds Damn you


Get the basics righ , leave the markets for things like big screen TVs and the new car

in the mean time .... Jesus boots , avoid debt , dont use stuff Ie be as self sufficient as you can , the least exposure to the eviel farts issuing from over the water ...the better position you will be in WHEN it goes tits up ....and IT WILL

Stephen

I'm all right Jack ......... I own everything and have no debt .... small one on the house but that is survivable ...... ..... but I had to take drastic action to do that ......

[Winston001]

...micro generation is a brilliant idea, but can you imagine any government supporting it?

AHA!

Implicit is the belief that the "government" must do it. Why?


I don't see them involved at all in the future. No need.

[Winston001]

A change may have been needed but was it the right change?...... the waste ground it produced .... oh wait same in NZ .... Markets are brutal, and have no place in a compassionate society. They have there place , but not when the fundamentals or basic human needs are interfered with , Food, Education , health......

Both the United Kingdom and New Zealand were - and currently are - centre-left social democracies. Unemployment benefits, sickness benefits, public healthcare, family benefit (now more generously income support) etc.

For the Americans....yes it was tough. But worse in most of the world where no social welfare exists at all. Try losing your job in India...

[rainman]

Weeeeeeell, if this were an election Rainman would have my vote on the asset sales issue

Thank you. Fortunately on Nov 26th you can do that for real.

Why would it be wise for NZ to join them?
...
I'd agree if the assets were being taken away but they aren't. The jobs etc will still be in NZ. And its a 49% sale so the govt retains control and 51% of profit.
...
The counterargument is that the money in the world does not disappear

That's a strawman. Both main parties (and others) recognise the need not to increase debt.

As noted the assets don't go but the returns do, so what's the point of having them here again?

I suspect money doesn't work like you think it does.

]we have to increase our exports and find more productive exports than dairy

the government are not the enemy but are actually our representatives and taxes paid go back into running our country

We have all enjoyed lovely tax cuts, but maybe we couldn't actually afford them?

I'd budget around it and get on with my life.

A CGT tax is not just a good idea, it's idiotic not to introduce it
Selling them now would be like Apple selling the iPod patents just as MP3s took off - DUMB, DUMB, DUMB.

Love your work. Another quality post.

So the US govt converted the private bankers debt to state debt in the bail out in round one and now they are in the poo.

Yeah, who'da thunk it?

Here's an alternative view:
...

Dude, lay off the Prozac. Yes there are things we can do in the renewables space (funny only one party is pushing this hard, yes, those idiot Greens again) but there's a long way and a lot of work to go before we get to your utopian future.

Ok. The mists of time draw darkly across the intervening 30 years but here's some thoughts.
...

So why are the thins you describe bad in themselves? I get there were controls, and agree some changes needed to be made, but the controls were just a means to an end, not the end in themselves.

A change may have been needed but was it the right change?...

There are a few thing that would transform NZ simple things .... Cheap good quality food we are after all a sodding great garden.
...
avoid debt , dont use stuff Ie be as self sufficient as you can , the least exposure to the eviel farts issuing from over the water ...the better position you will be in WHEN it goes tits up ....and IT WILL

What he said. To the power of lots.

I don't see them involved at all in the future. No need.

An anarcho-capitalist utopia is unlikely in anyone's lifetime. Government is not intrinsically bad, neither are rules and regulations.

[Clockwork]

An extremely good idea and I would extend that to business premises. Aside from reducing the need for importing fossil fuels, building more dams etc, it allows individual property owners and communities to be self sufficient and even earn money by selling excess power to the grid. Having lived in a city where some areas spent quite a while without power - we were without for a week - micro generation is a brilliant idea, but can you imagine any government supporting it? Yeah, those idiot Greens are into it, but I can't imagine anyone else.

What's worse is that IMO if we did sell our power generators the Government would come under political & commercial pressure to restrict private or personal generation in much the same way as it has previously moved to protect overseas commercial interests ahead of domestic interests.

[shrub]

AHA!

Implicit is the belief that the "government" must do it. Why?


I don't see them involved at all in the future. No need.

Because without government support it won't happen. Micro generation is ultimately very, very cost effective but it takes a substantial investment up front and most people don't have the money free and almost nobody these days is willing to think long term - I have a choice of a new Commodore or take my house off the grid. One makes me money, one costs me money but one impresses complete strangers and the other, well it's hippy green shit and the bird on the footpath won't notice me when I drive past.

Without government support in the form of funding through low cost loans and other incentives nobody will do it - how many people are doing it now?

Imagine this for a scenario - 500,000 households and businesses invest in micro generation over the next 10 years. Demand on the grid drops which means the most expensive powerstations get mothballed while our national carbon footprint plummets. Internationally power becomes increasingly expensive and carbon taxes climb while consumers become increasingly resistant to products with a high carbon footprint (both of which are actually happening, so I am far from demonstrating prescience). It is not only cheaper to do business in NZ (because power is so much cheaper) but "made in NZ" is a high-value commercial door opener. Suddenly businesses around the world will come to us wanting to work here on our terms and our per capita GDP climbs.

Right now I am part of a group looking at introducing just such a concept to Christchurch. We have a team of architects and engineers developing ways for it to happen with new commercial buildings and we're getting taken seriously by a lot of people. Our biggest challenge is a fat man with glasses - 10 points for guessing who.

[shrub]

What's worse is that IMO if we did sell our power generators the Government would come under political & commercial pressure to restrict private or personal generation in much the same way as it has previously moved to protect overseas commercial interests ahead of domestic interests.

A very, very good point.

[oldrider]

Every electricity consumer has a connection for which they pay a specific fee.

Unbeknown to most of them that connection works equally both ways.

If every consumer had an equal or double the generating capacity of their connection, they could use their own power and export the rest!

The biggest problem in this is the availability and cost of the primary energy source!

Solar is the source most readily available but is cost prohibitive unless someone (the government, I.E. the taxpayer) subsidised the installation!

When the sun shines, the established generators back off and the system frequency is maintained at 50 Hurtz.

When the sun goes down the generators increase their load to compensate and maintain frequency.

It's called green energy but when the Labour / Green government were in power, they would not subsidise it, go figure!

This happens in various overseas countries but when it happens here it is at your own cost and you can not produce competitively when you have an established connection right there!

It's called grid connection just look it up.

I have and it's too expensive and won't provide pay back in my lifetime!

Edit: The most obvious reason (that I can see) that the government won't subsidise solar grid connection is their monopoly position in power generation, distribution and retail.

They (the government) are the major player by far, so it isn't, or wasn't, only the fat man with glasses that stands in the way of competition!

[Winston001]

That's a strawman. Both main parties (and others) recognise the need not to increase debt.

As noted the assets don't go but the returns do, so what's the point of having them here again?

I suspect money doesn't work like you think it does.

1. The discussion is slightly wrong-footed in that most posts imply a full sale. 49% is less than half, we retain ownership and control at 51%.

2. The money from a part-sale repays loans, reduces the govts interest payment, and more revenue can be applied to public needs.

3. The returns to NZ are employment, engineering, contract support services, tax on those wages, and at the end - 51% of profit. Industries contribute much more to the community than the final bottom line for the owners.

4. The point of having the assets here? They produce electricity for New Zealanders to use. And they remain here for future generations to take back or whatever they choose.

Yes there are things we can do in the renewables space (funny only one party is pushing this hard, yes, those idiot Greens again) but there's a long way and a lot of work to go before we get to your utopian future.

Not so Utopian. I remember fax machines arriving in 1988. A mere 15 years later and some offices didn't bother buying them anymore. Technology changed that quickly.

Our government does not own or subsidise petrol stations, yet we'd all agree petrol is essential. By the same token micro generation does not need to be owned or subsidised by govt. As I mentioned earlier, a solar-power house paint has been invented.


There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy...

[JohnJumper]

I kinda want to vote greens but the fact it's pretty much a vote for Goff is a bit of a putoff. He was getting my respect again for a while, now he's resorted back to that snotty rip on everything National does mindset again

[shrub]

It's called green energy but when the Labour / Green government were in power, they would not subsidise it, go figure!

sadly there has never been a Labour/green government. All Labour governments have had the support of the Greens but they have never been included in the cabinet. The Green party are very gung ho on it and can see the economic benefits to NZ, but Labour under Clark were a little too careful to keep the support of Winston First, Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton to allow the Greens to have too much influence.

[SPman]

...........
Unbeknown to most of them that connection works equally both ways.

If every consumer had an equal or double the generating capacity of their connection, they could use their own power and export the rest!

The biggest problem in this is the availability and cost of the primary energy source!

Solar is the source most readily available but is cost prohibitive unless someone (the government, I.E. the taxpayer) subsidised the installation!

When the sun shines, the established generators back off and the system frequency is maintained at 50 Hurtz.

When the sun goes down the generators increase their load to compensate and maintain frequency.

It's called green energy but when the Labour / Green government were in power, they would not subsidise it, go figure!

This happens in various overseas countries but when it happens here it is at your own cost and you can not produce competitively when you have an established connection right there!

It's called grid connection just look it up.

I have and it's too expensive and won't provide pay back in my lifetime!

We stuck on a 1.5KW system and it cost us just $1950 with all subsidies, REC credits, etc.. We're away at work 5 days a week, so nearly all our power produced goes back into the grid over that period. We're also lucky in getting a good feed in tarrif. Our power bill has plummeted - we've paid about $300 this year, so far, and are much more conscious of power usage, etc. When we've finished rebuilding the house, we'll look at upgrading the system. So, we're saving power, feeling green (well, brown out here) and feeling like we are at least doing something! The whole scheme was so popular, the State governments have pulled the subsidy pins - three times as many people were taking it up as allowed for. They hit the 450MW limit very quickly, once it started rolling. Without the initial subsidy, to ease us in, (about $6700 when we took the plunge) however, we really couldn't have afforded it - same with a lot of others. It just takes a bit of Governmental initiative, sometimes to get the ball really rolling and now, even though the subsidies and feed in tarrifs have been slashed, there is enough enertia there to keep things going.
Governments should be encouraging works for the public good, not pretending to be businessmen running a fucking department store!

[oldrider]

When does an "asset" cease to be an asset? ... When it becomes a "liability" ... like New Zealand Railways!

Air New Zealand became a liability but it was bailed out at (great cost) by the NZ taxpayer!

Did we really need a run down airline that has never ever given it's customers any advantage, like cheaper fares?

The ones who had the most to lose were our politicians, they would lose all their "lifetime" free travel perks, so they bailed it out!

The point I am trying to make is that there is a big difference between "assets" and "liabilities"!

Sell liabilities outright and keep 51% controlling share of assets, what's the problem with that!

[puddytat]

sadly there has never been a Labour/green government. All Labour governments have had the support of the Greens but they have never been included in the cabinet. The Green party are very gung ho on it and can see the economic benefits to NZ, but Labour under Clark were a little too careful to keep the support of Winston First, Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton to allow the Greens to have too much influence.

That 'cause its them (the Greens)that have them really worried....and if enough people vote for 'em , then they'll have to include them...
But I bet both the Labs & the Nats would enter into a grand coalition to make sure that that didnt happen.
My prediction is that the Greens will get over 10% of the votes this time around & mark my words we'll see them doing deals with Winston & Hone before they'd work with the Greens.