Stupid World

[Viking01]

It's been only a matter of days since the Taliban managed to cruise into Kabul (without any significant fighting) and seize it. And since that point in time, western nations have been busy trying to fly into Kabul and repatriate their citizens.

It's way too early to predict how much of the future is going to unfold, especially the nature of future political governance of Afghanistan.

But if the past (e.g. Vietnam post 1975; Iran post 1979; Venezuela post 1999) is anything to go by, then the Afghani people can expect tough times ahead.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...istans-central

[Edit]

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden...64b0fc6eda02ef

[george formby]

It's been only a matter of days since the Taliban managed to cruise into Kabul (without any significant fighting) and seize it. And since that point in time, western nations have been busy trying to fly into Kabul and repatriate their citizens.

It's way too early to predict how much of the future is going to unfold, especially the nature of future political governance of Afghanistan.

But if the past (e.g. Vietnam post 1975; Iran post 1979; Venezuela post 1999) is anything to go by, then the Afghani people can expect tough times ahead.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...istans-central

I expect the Taliban will be exporting as much misery as they can quick sharp.

[Viking01]

I expect the Taliban will be exporting as much misery as they can quick sharp.

Evening.

Not sure how quite to interpret your comment. But I could guess any (all) of the following could qualify (in terms of related misery):

-Terrorists
-Refugees
-Opium

1. Terrorists
Think that both Russia and China have been pro-active the past year, engaging with Taliban representatives and discussing their separate regional security concerns.

Neither Russia nor China want Islamic militants being directed into their western reaches and destabilising matters. China, of course, has its OBOR interest to consider, which could be a positive card (regarding trade and development) for both Pakistan and Afghanistan).

2. Refugees
Think that the current Taliban are more politically aware than those of 20 years ago, and better recognise some of the impacts of ongoing war to the country (people and economy).

Hence their initial words regarding (i) retention of citizens with "important skills" and avoidance of a refugee exodus to Europe (ii) better treatment of women (within the bounds of their Islamic religion).

https://www.rt.com/news/532319-talib...s-afghanistan/

3. Opium
The one major item that the western media has largely avoided discussing in the past has been mention of the opium trade (which the Taliban of 2001 promptly shut down, but which was quickly resurrected - and expanded - after US and allied NATO forces had forced the Taliban from power).

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-sp...eroin-trade/91

One can be sure that while the US will not take "losing control of Afghanistan" graciously, it will be strongly focused on not losing the income stream from opium. I watch for announcements in this space with particular interest.

[pete376403]

If you saw the movie "Charlie Wilsons War" you would have seen a feel-good romp about the Afghans, with US supplied materiel, whacking the shit out of the Russians. If you read the book, "Charlie Wilsons War" you would have read something a bit different, but both suggesting the Afghans are the good guys.

This is the background, which is quite a bit diffferent again: https://consortiumnews.com/2021/08/1...HZ1nIqAnUUX2q0

[george formby]

My wee post comes from the perspective that the Taliban are driven by devout religion and will use almost any means to achieve Sharia goals within and beyond Afghanistan. I would be surprised if the country does not become, at least, a safe haven for terrorist organisations which have broadly the same aims.

Their seems to be a lot of tacit support for them in Muslim countries. Pakistan immediately springs to mind because of the widespread public support. Other Middle East countries who are wealthier may support them more covertly to avoid damaging cash flow. The female Kiwi reporter at yesterdays press conference works for Al Jazeera, not especially harsh critics of Taliban history. It feels like cyclical history.

Russia and China are both ostensibly anti Muslim but will do a deal regardless.

Opium production is interesting, it's been a cash crop for a very long time but is not acceptable under Sharia law, like alcohol.
If funds come in from other means then no doubt the Taliban will curtail poppy farmers and try to get good publicity from it.

But they are mercurial.

The Taliban may have become more media savvy in the last twenty years but reports on social media from outside the main cities indicate it's situation normal. Murder, abduction, sex slaves, brutality, torture.

One thing is for sure. The Taliban have no interest in freedom or democracy.

[jim.cox]

One thing is for sure. The Taliban have no interest in freedom or democracy.

True that:

Taliban official rules out democracy in Afghanistan

[pritch]

There wouldn't seem to be much point in negotiating with the Taliban now. Their God has granted them victory, so they don't owe nobody nothin'.

The RNZAF C130 flying to Kabul seems like a lost cause but I guess they had to try. As for their bringing Afghan nationals who worked for us here, that'll be difficult. The ones in Bamiyan are surrounded by Taliban and have been for days - if they are still alive. The Taliban now have checkpoints around the airport at Kabul and are only permitting foreigners to pass.

[pete376403]

Nuke the place and let god (which ever one ) sort it out

[Viking01]

My wee post comes from the perspective that the Taliban are driven by devout religion and will use almost any means to achieve Sharia goals within and beyond Afghanistan. I would be surprised if the country does not become, at least, a safe haven for terrorist organisations which have broadly the same aims.

Their seems to be a lot of tacit support for them in Muslim countries. Pakistan immediately springs to mind because of the widespread public support. Other Middle East countries who are wealthier may support them more covertly to avoid damaging cash flow. The female Kiwi reporter at yesterdays press conference works for Al Jazeera, not especially harsh critics of Taliban history. It feels like cyclical history.

Russia and China are both ostensibly anti Muslim but will do a deal regardless.

Opium production is interesting, it's been a cash crop for a very long time but is not acceptable under Sharia law, like alcohol.
If funds come in from other means then no doubt the Taliban will curtail poppy farmers and try to get good publicity from it.

But they are mercurial.

The Taliban may have become more media savvy in the last twenty years but reports on social media from outside the main cities indicate it's situation normal. Murder, abduction, sex slaves, brutality, torture.

One thing is for sure. The Taliban have no interest in freedom or democracy.

Afternoon.

Thanks for the reply.

Think that it's very early days yet. All that has happened is that a US controlled "government" has been ousted.

US armed forces and its paid mercenaries have not even been displaced from the country yet. And the US and its supporting western nations are still being permitted to fly aircraft into Kabul to retrieve their citizens.

The Taliban has yet to declare its credentials, and to try and establish some governing body .

1. Driven by Devout Religion: As for using "warriors of Islam" to help bring down political administrations (in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere), shouldn't we instead be looking more at the parties that fund and use them for geo-political purpose ? Al Qaeda and ISIS ?

2. Haven for Terrorist Organisations: Not sure who gets to decide which organisations are "terrorist" in this modern world. ["One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter"].

If I received a US dollar (preferably some more valuable currency) for the number of times that I've read about the US choosing to re-classify various political organisations (because it suited their then-current geo-political objectives), I'd be a wealthy man.

And if I was going by past track record (e.g. number of country invasions since WW2), I'd be inclined to say the world's "most significant terrorist" (and its NATO side kicks) have just been given their "marching orders" from Afghanistan.

Let's not mistake this "pending exit" from Afghanistan as being anything other than a recognition by the US that the effort and cost of occupation has become prohibitive, and that re-deployment of some of their chess pieces to the Asia-Pacific is now deemed to be of higher priority. [ You didn't think they were going home? ]

[Edit] Forgot to also add that should the US be contemplating a strike on Iran, removal of US armed forces from western Afghan provinces (Helmand, Herat) removes obvious targets for Iranian missile strikes.

3. External Support: Pakistan - yes. A strong supporter (especially its intelligence service, ISI). For a number of reasons.

4. Russia and China: Agreed, that they will seek to "do a deal" with the new (yet to be determined) government of Afghanistan. On security as a minimum, and trading / incorporation into OBOR longer term.

Anti-Muslim ? Only if you read and believe what the western media tells you.

5. Opium Production: Yes, that is a conundrum for the Taliban. Trying to identify and establish suitable replacement crops for the Afghan rural population.

6. Social Media: Well, given its use and abuse by western powers (and their intelligence services), I'm in no doubt that there are stories about each of which you have mentioned.

That's not to give the Taliban a "free pass", but simply to recognise that the West has far from "clean hands" in many of those same respects (e.g. Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo Bay, extra-ordinary rendition).

7. Freedom and Democracy: In the absence of some agreed definitions, this would be a long and difficult discussion. So I'll ignore "freedom" for the time being, just focus on "democracy" and try to keep it to just a few points.

If you mean "democracy" as dictated by the West and according to its rules, then it's quite easy to see that the Taliban will choose to reject it. [This also assumes that Afghanistan has operated some measure of democracy in its past.]

And if we look around the world, it's also clear to see that many other countries reject "democracy" as well (either the concept itself, or the particular implementation of "democracy" forced upon them). Start with Saudi Arabia and many of the other ME emirates, and then work your way around the globe.

You could even make a case that the US rejects "democracy" (based on its own internal political behaviour the last 5 years).

[george formby]

Thank you for putting the time into this post, Viking. I always find your perspectives thought provoking.

Broadly, I agree with most, if not all, that you have posted. I'm pretty cynical about what we see and read happening in the world. No one has clean hands in modern history, the greater the resources, the dirtier the hands. But less obvious.

I read a snippet today as quoted by Royal Marines at Kabul airport. Afghan mothers were throwing their babies at the soldiers over a barbed wire fence in the hope that they would take them out of the country. I'm struggling to comprehend that level of desperation from my cosy seat.

50'000 years and we are still trying to kick the shit out of each other.

[Viking01]

A long read (15 pages) that a few might appreciate.

https://annebonnypirate.org/2021/08/...he-occupation/

[pritch]

Reportedly there are an increasing number of empty shelves in supermarkets in the UK. Now Maccas have taken milkshakes off the menu. Little of this is COVID related, this is self inflicted, directly attributable to Brexit. Apparently even Tory MPs have been wearing firghtened looks of late as the realisation penetrates that they have fucked up majorly.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/24/b...-uk/index.html

[pete376403]

A long read (15 pages) that a few might appreciate.

https://annebonnypirate.org/2021/08/...he-occupation/

That was a good read,a comment included this link:


https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/08...s-and-legends/

[Viking01]

That was a good read,a comment included this link:


https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/08...s-and-legends/

Evening,

As it happens, I have only just finished re-reading Andre's article on Afghanistan. Gives a quite different perspective on affairs, both on the Russian occupation in the 1980's , and on the current players (and perhaps their motivations).

On a personal note, it is sad that Andre died in September last year. Only 57.

[mashman]

Man Photographed as Baby on ‘Nevermind’ Cover Sues Nirvana, Alleging Child Pornography... so much irony it's almost a satiric read.