Stupid World

[Viking01]

Flicking through this website did make me think it could be a resources grab.

https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/mining/

The following website (or its graphics) might be a little slow to load.

https://eng.minerals-ua.info/golovna...isni-kopalini/

If you are going to continue on down that "rabbit hole", you might also want to consider:

- other resources (such as agricultural land) - and which parties (Big Ag companies) have been involved (since say 2004)
- which parties (western or not) have been involved in acquiring control of Ukrainian resources since roughly the same point in time.

Happy digging.

[george formby]

The following website (or its graphics) might be a little slow to load.

https://eng.minerals-ua.info/golovna...isni-kopalini/

If you are going to continue on down that "rabbit hole", you might also want to consider:

- other resources (such as agricultural land) - and which parties (Big Ag companies) have been involved (since say 2004)
- which parties (western or not) have been involved in acquiring control of Ukrainian resources since roughly the same point in time.

Happy digging.

Lol, I would rather say that I'm hugely intrigued and appalled by the situation. I'm just trying to look at it broadly, not dig for conspiracies.

[Viking01]

Lol, I would rather say that I'm hugely intrigued and appalled by the situation. I'm just trying to look at it broadly, not dig for conspiracies.

Afternoon.

Not implying conspiracies. And I wasn't for one minute suggesting that you should (search for conspiracies).

Simply suggesting that one could look for parties that have been progressing acquiring control over Ukrainian resources. Sometimes, such actions are not actively reported in the media, but are still relevant to the bigger picture.

Cheers, Viking

[husaberg]

Lol, I would rather say that I'm hugely intrigued and appalled by the situation. I'm just trying to look at it broadly, not dig for conspiracies.

the way i see it is not really a huge conspiracy its simple greed.

Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of the global trade in wheat, as well as a fifth of corn sales.
The Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe
And this is only the start
Russia and Ukraine lead the global production of metals such as nickel, copper, and iron.
Simply put Russia when they take over control of Ukraine there rich become even more rich.
All these lands become Russia and like any benevolent dictator, Putin's rich mates get these farms.
Ukraine is home to around a quarter of the world’s super-fertile black soil
They have not previously had access to funds to develop their farms but were very close to achieving that.
The country boasts around 42 million hectares of prime agricultural land right on the doorsteps of Europe or within easy shipping of the middle east
not only that a lot of Russian gas and oil get shipped via the Ukraine to the EU.
the west has let the Ukraine down by not fast-tracking them into Nato.

In March 2016, President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker stated that it would take at least 20–25 years for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.On 8 June 2017, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada passed a law making integration with NATO a foreign policy priority.
On December 1, 2020, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Taran stated that Ukraine clearly outlines its ambitions to obtain the NATO Membership Action Plan and hopes for comprehensive political and military support for such a decision at the next Alliance Summit in 2021.
On January 14, 2022, Andrii Yermak, Chairman of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that the Ukrainian authorities hope to hear specific conditions for joining the North Atlantic Alliance:

As for trying to blame Biden for this anyone would have to cede that Trump bowed to Putins demands as his lapdog

Putin asked U.S. President Joe Biden for legal guarantees that NATO wouldn’t expand eastward or put "weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory."According to Putin, "If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg replied that "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors."

On December 1, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wanted to receive guarantees from the West that Ukraine would not join NATO. On 16 December, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Alliance would not make concessions to Russia on the issue of Ukraine's accession. According to him, Ukraine has the right to protection and together with NATO will determine the issue of membership in the Alliance.

[george formby]

Afternoon.

Not implying conspiracies. And I wasn't for one minute suggesting that you should (search for conspiracies).

Simply suggesting that one could look for parties that have been progressing acquiring control over Ukrainian resources. Sometimes, such actions are not actively reported in the media, but are still relevant to the bigger picture.

Cheers, Viking

Thanks, that's the direction I'm heading in.

the way i see it is not really a huge conspiracy its simple greed.

Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of the global trade in wheat, as well as a fifth of corn sales.
The Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe
And this is only the start
Russia and Ukraine lead the global production of metals such as nickel, copper, and iron.
Simply put Russia when they take over control of Ukraine there rich become even more rich.
All these lands become Russia and like any benevolent dictator, Putin's rich mates get these farms.
Ukraine is home to around a quarter of the world’s super-fertile black soil
They have not previously had access to funds to develop their farms but were very close to achieving that.
The country boasts around 42 million hectares of prime agricultural land right on the doorsteps of Europe or within easy shipping of the middle east
not only that a lot of Russian gas and oil get shipped via the Ukraine to the EU.
the west has let the Ukraine down by not fast-tracking them into Nato.

Agreed.

Ultimately, yup, greed.

A Russian controlled Ukraine would cheapen and massively increase export potential for all sorts of stuff in a lot of markets. Everything carved up and handed to the Oligarchs, again.

[Viking01]

Thanks, that's the direction I'm heading in.

Agreed.

Ultimately, yup, greed.

A Russian controlled Ukraine would cheapen and massively increase export potential for all sorts of stuff in a lot of markets. Everything carved up and handed to the Oligarchs, again.

Interesting thoughts, though I'm not sure that I quite see your logic.

Russia might decide instead to impose counter-sanctions, and physically restrict export to the West of certain "deemed critical" resources (like titanium, nickel, gallium, rare earths) - not only from Russia itself, but from the Ukraine as well (let's just call them "supply chain disruptions"). Always a possibility.

It's interesting that existing contracted supplies of gas from Russia (to western Europe) and oil products (to the US) have not been sanctioned, nor are they subject to SWIFT payment transfer restrictions. It seems despite all the various sanctions mentioned, not all "noses" (to spite one's own face) will be removed.

Just on your last point (oligarchs). This English language (and its terminology) is so confusing sometimes.

Are they always Russian ? Or can they also be of other stripes as well ? e.g. Ukrainian ? Chinese ? Western ?

How do you (politely) refer to or categorise the likes of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Larry Page and Sergei Brin, Warren Buffett ? Are they business men (or entrepreneurs)?

Cheers, Viking

[Edit]

Realised afterwards that along with oil to US, I'd forgotten to also mention aluminium (or aluminum, if you're American and have trouble spelling).

Boeing, US auto makers and canning producers have all quietly requested (and been granted) exemptions from US sanctions on Russia. Russia supplies at least 10% of US aluminium needs.

My guess is that some other US metal refiners will in the very near future also sidle up to the US administration and request exemptions.

[george formby]

Interesting thoughts, though I'm not sure that I quite see your logic.

Russia might decide instead to impose counter-sanctions, and physically restrict export to the West of certain "deemed critical" resources (like titanium, nickel, gallium, rare earths) - not only from Russia itself, but from the Ukraine as well (let's just call them "supply chain disruptions"). Always a possibility.

It's interesting that existing contracted supplies of gas from Russia (to western Europe) and oil products (to the US) have not been sanctioned, nor are they subject to SWIFT payment transfer restrictions. It seems despite all the various sanctions mentioned, not all "noses" (to spite one's own face) will be removed.

Just on your last point (oligarchs). This English language (and its terminology) is so confusing sometimes.

Are they always Russian ? Or can they also be of other stripes as well ? e.g. Ukrainian ? Chinese ? Western ?

How do you (politely) refer to or categorise the likes of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Larry Page and Sergei Brin, Warren Buffett ? Are they business men (or entrepreneurs)?

Cheers, Viking

You're a bugger for making my head spin, on a Sunday arvo, too.

But. Pertinent as ever.

[pritch]

It's interesting that existing contracted supplies of gas from Russia (to western Europe) and oil products (to the US) have not been sanctioned,

I understood that the Germans had turned off the tap on the North European Russian gas pipeline early on?

[Viking01]

I understood that the Germans had turned off the tap on the North European Russian gas pipeline early on?

Afternoon,

Think that it is important to distinguish between oil and gas pipeline networks present across Europe.

The North European Pipeline System (NEPS) relates to the following, and is an internal German - Danish pipeline. No Russian involvement. As indicated in the second link, it is basically an oil distribution network (and is under German - Danish operational control).

https://www.pipeliner.com.au/interna...-and-conflict/
https://www.gem.wiki/North_European_Pipeline_System

Essentially, even at the height of the Cold War, gas continued to flow from Russia (USSR) to western Europe uninterrupted.

There are only two significant instances where I'm aware Russian oil or gas supply to Europe has recently been disrupted:

1. Russia-Ukraine gas dispute (2014-2019)
2. Russian oil contamination (2019)

Russia-Ukraine gas dispute
There was a gas dispute between Russia (Gazprom) and Ukraine for a period (within 2014-2019), where Ukraine periodically refused to pay its gas bills (price disputes) - but leach some gas (intended for other western customers) from the gas transiting its gas pipeline network, in order to meet its own internal gas needs. This dispute was apparently resolved in 2019:

https://sputniknews.com/20191227/gaz...077883560.html
https://www.rt.com/business/476861-r...-transit-deal/

Russian oil contamination

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKCN1SQ13C


[ Edit ]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=BHMxy6nY

[Viking01]

You're a bugger for making my head spin, on a Sunday arvo, too.

But. Pertinent as ever.

Afternoon.

I'm not going to get involved in any discussion on the Russian military action in Ukraine itself. But thought that - in response to your Sunday post - I might just post two links regarding financial and economic response to the conflict (because of the diagrams and tables presented).

Parties
In this current situation, there are three main parties involved: Russia, the EU and the US. With Ukraine "hosting the current event", so to speak. [ Conveniently ignoring China and others for the time being ]

NATO
While I understand the historical purpose of NATO (as a military organisation and alliance, supposedly to provide security to European nations within the NATO fence), it has always been a US led and controlled organisation.

Since EU inception, inclusion of various European nations into the EU (economic) circle has generally been front-footed by membership into NATO. (i.e. the military aspect preceded the economic).

And since 2000, the spread of NATO across eastern and southern Europe only accelerated. To the point that Russia became concerned for its own military and economic security.

European Behaviour
Each of the three parties mentioned above (Russia, EU, US) has its own political and economic objectives and strategies, but it is the role of Europe (the EU) that has recently puzzled me the most.

Russia has expressed its desire to become more integrated with western Europe the past 20+ years, with increase in economic ties to lead the way. But this has been complicated / compromised more recently by NATO participation outside of Europe (i.e. Libya, Syria) as well as by US political intervention (i.e. Trump; Biden-Blinken).

In the leadup to the Russian military action in Ukraine, I would have expected that the EU would have "argued and acted in its own strategic interests". But it seems very divided (both politically and economically) -with multiple entities vying to guide its direction and decision-making
e.g.
NATO - in Brussels;
The EC - Josef Borell and Ursula von der Leyen ;
National Politicians - such as Germany's Olaf Scholz and France's Emmanuel Macron.

and not to mention the likes of George Soros and the Davos crowd in the background.

Sanctions
I can't help feeling that while Russia will suffer some economic pain, the EU is also (wittingly or unwittingly) being lined up economically as a sacrifical lamb. Sanctions by both the US and EU were to be expected, but the EU seems to have been willing to "lead the charge".

One could have expected (after the last week-ends fighting and associated political comments) that exchange rates of the ruble and the Euro would be down and the USD up. As well as prices for oil, gold and precious metals up as well. No surprises.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tr...e-set-collapse

But it was the willingness of the EU to participate in the sanctioning of the Russian central bank - and especially the SWIFT interchange lockout - that made much less sense to me.

Once Russia was "locked out" of the dollar market - and money flows start to cease, there would logically be impacts for European countries and companies as well (i.e reduced dollar liquidity - affecting payment of goods and services; higher spreads on currency cross rates - causing higher cost of business operation).

There was also the possibility that Russia (or some companies) might chose to default on repayment of debt if they couldn't physically make settlement.

The multi-coloured table provided in the above article by Bloomberg gives a flavour.

And this would all risk being accentuated, depending upon what action (and the level of) that Russia chose to adopt in response (i.e. counter-sanctions; Russian central bank banning sale of financial securities). Those who help "start the financial fire" can share the financial pain.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ru...ies-foreigners

I can't help feeling some mixture of (i) political naivety of the part of European politicians (ii) some parties stand to profit financially , while others stand to carry the resultant costs.

Interesting times ahead.

[ Edit ]

In hindsight, probably a few other points (economic impacts) that should also be included and considered from an EU perspective:

- Loss of Product Sales to Russia
- EU Energy Security
- Inflation and Interest Rates
- Expected NATO Military Spend

Loss of Product Sales to Russia
The EU obviously stands to lose trade related income from loss of potential sales to Russia. But that will have no doubt been factored in as a given (even if not well quantified). But it should be wise to check that the US will follow through and "sanction-match" those which it applies ; else it potentially risks losing market share to the US (as what has happened in the Australia - China trade sanction debacle, where the US acquired market share that Australia relinquished).

EU Energy Security
The EU - particularly Germany - is quite energy insecure, especially with the wind-down of its nuclear programme. The decision not to activate NS2 will mean that additional gas supply from Russia (other than the spot market) will force the EU to acquire gas supplies from countries like the US and Qatar (where the price differential is probably a factor of 3-5x. This will lead to price inflation, and feed into the general economy.

Inflation and Interest Rates
As inflation rises, will the EU central bank be willing to raise its interest rates - in order to try and suppress inflation ? The higher the interest rates go, the more that wages will lag, and that spending within the general economy fall off. Given that the EU is currently seeking to recover from the recent effect of covid, is the ECB (and the various EU governments) willing to follow through with interest rate increases ?

Expected NATO Military Spend
It was expected that various EU countries might react to the Russian military action by seeking to increase their NATO military spend. And indeed, Germany's Scholz just announced that course of action today. While the US might be very pleased with that announcement, this means potentially less money on German social spending in turn.

[ Edit 2 ]

https://sputniknews.com/20220227/how...093428643.html

[R650R]

This weapon has been used extensively early on in conflict

[george formby]

Interesting times ahead.

100 billion euro investment in the military.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ft-2022-02-27/

That's quite a shift in investment.

[husaberg]

100 billion euro investment in the military.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ft-2022-02-27/

That's quite a shift in investment.

That's just the tip, BP just wiped its hands of 25 Billion investment they made with Russia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oducer-rosneft

[Viking01]

100 billion euro investment in the military.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ft-2022-02-27/

That's quite a shift in investment.

Morning.
I think that the term "investment" is normally applied to allocation of monies towards "productive capital" (e.g. buildings, plant, infrastructure). But I take your point.

Armaments and Related Industries

I see this morning that Germany has chosen to "invest" in a number of its own producers. Suppose it has to "protect its own" , as it wouldn't want producers of other countries to steal armaments market share (when there's such a killing to be made, so to speak).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germa...183054051.html

Oil and Gas Industry in Russia

Following Husaberg's earlier post about BP, I see Shell has also decided to (try and) divest of some of its oil related holdings in Russia. Guess it helps avoid the risk of those assets being "nationalised" as a part of Russian counter-sanctions.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...ents-in-russia

And in the case of BP, if the Russians let the conflict drift along a little longer, they might get an even better deal on the price (discount).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-we...205828671.html

[ Edit ]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...and-gas-sector

European Responses

Following my earlier post on Europe, it didn't take very long to get a reply. All across Europe, all manner of parties appear to be ripping their shirts off and nailing them to their flag post in support of Ukraine. Very few left sitting on the fence now.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...-nuclear-alert

Interesting times indeed.

[george formby]

I used "investment" as it was used in the article. Cheers for clarifying Viking, I expected that a lot of it would be on home soil.

Still, they must have the wind up, it's double the 2020 spending.

"€51.4 billion
In 2020, spending was capped at an estimated €51.4 billion. The €100 billion Scholz said would be dedicated for the armed forces this year is a one year boost though the move is significant, as Germany has often been criticized by the United States and other NATO allies for not investing enough in defense."

Culled straight off the top of a google search. DW article

And spending from the last few years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany...ry-expenditure