The Ukraine

**mashman** · 1st July 2014, 14:21

Originally Posted by mark247

I think you'd find the vast majority of Ukrainians want Ukraine to stay intact. Be them from Lugansk or Lviv. War is an awful thing by all means, but Russia and/or the separatists are not the moral authority in this case. If separatists, which are a small minority, started this in any other country I think the government would have a similar response. Remember Chechnya? First Chechen war had around 80k civilian casualties.

The sad thing about this conflict is the huge propaganda involved. Pro Russians think Ukraine is run by the far right nazis, where you'd find that far rights in Ukraine has one of the smallest showings in Europe. The word 'fascist' is being thrown around like its going out of fashion, if anyway cared to look at the meaning they'd see that Russia of all the major players involved is the closed to it.

These (some?) separatists are madmen, yesterday there were reports they had a go at knocking a Dnipravia airliner out of the sky with a MANPAD. Stuff them! I've flown that airline!

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Yeah I'm pretty sure everyone wants to stay alive... as you say, war is an awful thing. The unfortunate thing about conflict is that it usually start off with some form of innocuous act, in this case fracking. The Arab Spring kicked off because a shop owner set himself on fire in the marketplace in protest. It's unfortunate because that act is ignored by the decision makers and is turned into something entirely different that sparks unrest/war. I'm sure an uprising would be dealt with in every country, but does that immediately tar the separatists as the bad guys? It certainly seems to for some unknown reason... can we have our ball back please usually resulting in a no because it isn't a goal of a particular govt to address an issue that has "normal" people riddling each other with holes or setting buildings on fire because you wore the wrong coloured flag.

They're all in on it. What's the betting it was a case of implement fracking or suffer economic sanctions? Ukraine also had a rather large gas bill too which won't have helped from the simple perspective that they are indebted to another nation. Tis a joke.

Oh I've no doubt that all parties are committed from their own perspective and that there will be "extreme" events that come about because of those differences. All because of fracking. It's all really rather silly really isn't it.

**mark247** · 1st July 2014, 14:32

Can you explain your fracking link with Ukraine? Cheers.

Very briefly, Ukraine's latest crisis started after Yanukovych pulled back on the AA with EU he had said he would sign then pulled back on. This caused uproar (Euromaidan). This east west tension was exploited by Russia who opportunistically walked into Crimea. This gave separatists in East Ukraine some ideas (many of who were in Crimea also) and Ukraine finally took action, when if it had a strong enough government at the time, could had justifiably done this in the Crimea initially.

I find Russia asking for more debt payments from Ukraine a joke, if they plan on keeping Crimea they should know this will cost Ukraine 10s of billions of dollars of losses.

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**mashman** · 1st July 2014, 16:16

Originally Posted by mark247

Can you explain your fracking link with Ukraine? Cheers.

Very briefly, Ukraine's latest crisis started after Yanukovych pulled back on the AA with EU he had said he would sign then pulled back on. This caused uproar (Euromaidan). This east west tension was exploited by Russia who opportunistically walked into Crimea. This gave separatists in East Ukraine some ideas (many of who were in Crimea also) and Ukraine finally took action, when if it had a strong enough government at the time, could had justifiably done this in the Crimea initially.

I find Russia asking for more debt payments from Ukraine a joke, if they plan on keeping Crimea they should know this will cost Ukraine 10s of billions of dollars of losses.

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There's a link on here somewhere (probably in Stupid World) that spoke of it during the time... anyhoo "An anti-fracking rally took place in the city of Kerch at Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula as several activists gathered in front of a gas station, owned by Anglo–Dutch multinational oil and gas company, Shell.

The campaigners, wearing gas masks, warned that the company, which received permission to explore shale gas from the Ukrainian government, possesses threat to the country’s ecology."

I could probably find my original link but got the physio for eldest daughter, then homeworks to do, then dishes, then dinner etc... The protesters never left the streets and the anti-govt rally continued into what we see today and via the media propaganda that you've posted (not having a go in the slightest). If I was going to be a cynic, I'd say that the excuse to fight presented itself when the anti-fracking protest started... but hey.

Ach the economics of it are unimportant to those in power as there are bigger fish to fry and people need culling.

**mark247** · 1st July 2014, 16:32

I don't think Euromaidan has anything to do with fracking. A protest in Kerch, sure, but I don't think a Russian take over is going to do any good things to the environment. That reminds me, I went to a public lecture after work a month or so ago put on by a visiting prof here in wellington. There was this one old guy there, in his 70s, and all he wanted the lecturer to say was "This conflict was caused by the US because there oil/gas in Ukraine." I asked the guy whether there was any oil/gas in Ukraine and he replied "I don't know." People forget that Ukraine is a large country with a rich history and a very strong civil society (compared to surrounding countries). It is very much possible that what spawned this conflict is actually about Ukraine and Ukrainians, not east v west. Not everything is Obama and oil. What it is now is another story. Russia has taken advantage of the situation. Sorry I've deviated a bit but it is a point people need to remember.

Propaganda I posted?

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**SPman** · 1st July 2014, 17:37

As usual, it's the general populace that suffer, currently the East Ukraines, because of the the egos, maschinations and vain-glory grab for power of people and countries that should know better.
There are currently reports of Chlorine gas being used in Kramatorsk, along with heavy civilian casualties....

04:00 Heavy armor moving on Kramatorsk. A full regiment including main battle tanks.

05:00 Sukhoi aircraft attacks started Kramatorsk. Reports one has been shot down, not confirmed.

05:30 Intense fighting has commenced outskirts Kramatorsk. Tactical situations unknown.

06:45 Heavy civilian casualties reported Kramatorsk. Civilian living areas are targeted. One hospital has been hit and is burning. Casualties unknown in hospital. One 7 floor flats building has collapsed. Casualties unknown.

Slavyansk and outlying villages and towns are under heavy bombardment from Karachun Mountain. Civilian living areas targeted. Reports two flats buildings burning. Reports 2 hospitals including children hospital hit multiple times. Heavy casualties reported at hospitals, unconfirmed.

and so it goes.......

mark 247 - the size of the far right in a country is not necessarily an indication of it's effectiveness, or not. It's how committed they are, and the "Banderistas" are committed. Also, the presence of private militias among the various oligarchs (illegal by Ukraine Law) and the "independence" they seem to have does not help proceedings. It takes 2 sides to fight, and neither side seems to have any real desire not to - the West because of the "seperatists", the East because of continued attacks from the west - Poroshenko's ceasefire seemed to be observed more in the breaking of, than observance of.

**mashman** · 1st July 2014, 18:43

Originally Posted by mark247

I don't think Euromaidan has anything to do with fracking. A protest in Kerch, sure, but I don't think a Russian take over is going to do any good things to the environment. That reminds me, I went to a public lecture after work a month or so ago put on by a visiting prof here in wellington. There was this one old guy there, in his 70s, and all he wanted the lecturer to say was "This conflict was caused by the US because there oil/gas in Ukraine." I asked the guy whether there was any oil/gas in Ukraine and he replied "I don't know." People forget that Ukraine is a large country with a rich history and a very strong civil society (compared to surrounding countries). It is very much possible that what spawned this conflict is actually about Ukraine and Ukrainians, not east v west. Not everything is Obama and oil. What it is now is another story. Russia has taken advantage of the situation. Sorry I've deviated a bit but it is a point people need to remember.

Propaganda I posted?

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Fair enough. I don't believe that it is a Russian instigated incident. For starters the people were on the streets for months before Euromaiden. Of course Russia will benefit from snafooing Crimea, but I reckon that's part payment for debt and democracy

. Bottom line, you can't have protesters winning those sorts of protests. But yeah, there could be many reasons for it... yet they were peaceful before the fracking protest

An interesting read I thought ... and another more murkey one.

Edit: You said "The sad thing about this conflict is the huge propaganda involved", that was the reference for the propaganda comment.

**mark247** · 1st July 2014, 19:18

Originally Posted by SPman

As usual, it's the general populace that suffer, currently the East Ukraines, because of the the egos, maschinations and vain-glory grab for power of people and countries that should know better.
There are currently reports of Chlorine gas being used in Kramatorsk, along with heavy civilian casualties....

04:00 Heavy armor moving on Kramatorsk. A full regiment including main battle tanks.

05:00 Sukhoi aircraft attacks started Kramatorsk. Reports one has been shot down, not confirmed.

05:30 Intense fighting has commenced outskirts Kramatorsk. Tactical situations unknown.

06:45 Heavy civilian casualties reported Kramatorsk. Civilian living areas are targeted. One hospital has been hit and is burning. Casualties unknown in hospital. One 7 floor flats building has collapsed. Casualties unknown.

Slavyansk and outlying villages and towns are under heavy bombardment from Karachun Mountain. Civilian living areas targeted. Reports two flats buildings burning. Reports 2 hospitals including children hospital hit multiple times. Heavy casualties reported at hospitals, unconfirmed.

and so it goes.......

Absolutely terrible when there are civilian casualties. Perhaps if the seperatists didn't base themselves in residential areas this wouldn't happen so often.

Originally Posted by SPman

mark 247 - the size of the far right in a country is not necessarily an indication of it's effectiveness, or not. It's how committed they are, and the "Banderistas" are committed. Also, the presence of private militias among the various oligarchs (illegal by Ukraine Law) and the "independence" they seem to have does not help proceedings. It takes 2 sides to fight, and neither side seems to have any real desire not to - the West because of the "seperatists", the East because of continued attacks from the west - Poroshenko's ceasefire seemed to be observed more in the breaking of, than observance of.

Fair call. Poroshenko's ceasefire lasted 10 days and the seperatists in this time really didn't cease much firing. Although perhaps some of their 'leaders' said they had agreed to the ceasefire, it is clear that their is no real chain of command - they're a bit of a mess propped up by Russian weapons.

Originally Posted by mashman

Fair enough. I don't believe that it is a Russian instigated incident. For starters the people were on the streets for months before Euromaiden. Of course Russia will benefit from snafooing Crimea, but I reckon that's part payment for debt and democracy

. Bottom line, you can't have protesters winning those sorts of protests. But yeah, there could be many reasons for it... yet they were peaceful before the fracking protest

An interesting read I thought ... and another more murkey one.

Edit: You said "The sad thing about this conflict is the huge propaganda involved", that was the reference for the propaganda comment.

Russian didn't instigate Euromaidan, Vickor Yanukovych caused that through and through just like the Orange Revolution. Russia did however clearly use their military to take Crimea (Putin has said this now) and they are clearly letting weapons get through to the separatists.

Part payment for debt and democracy?! Crimea was a legitimate part of Ukraine and before this all happened the Crimean population didn't have a problem with this. It has always been a bit of controversial topic for some Russians, but some don't think Ukraine should be independent at all.. some still say "на Украине" instead of "в Украине" dating back to when it was part of the Soviet Union. That said, having debt doesn't mean any country can just invade another, and Russia didn't even have a problem with this before they lost their "yes man" Yanukovych in Kyiv, who was and still is just a thug.

**mark247** · 1st July 2014, 19:20

And Mashman, I'll certainly check out those links!

**mashman** · 1st July 2014, 19:32

Originally Posted by mark247

And Mashman, I'll certainly check out those links!

lol... you'll find Yanukovych's name mentioned.

**mashman** · 1st July 2014, 19:39

Originally Posted by mark247

Russian didn't instigate Euromaidan, Vickor Yanukovych caused that through and through just like the Orange Revolution. Russia did however clearly use their military to take Crimea (Putin has said this now) and they are clearly letting weapons get through to the separatists.

Part payment for debt and democracy?! Crimea was a legitimate part of Ukraine and before this all happened the Crimean population didn't have a problem with this. It has always been a bit of controversial topic for some Russians, but some don't think Ukraine should be independent at all.. some still say "на Украине" instead of "в Украине" dating back to when it was part of the Soviet Union. That said, having debt doesn't mean any country can just invade another, and Russia didn't even have a problem with this before they lost their "yes man" Yanukovych in Kyiv, who was and still is just a thug.

Aye, there are wrongs and there are wrongs... the wrongs are a govt requirement for some reason.

What I was aiming for was that there was a popular vote over Crimea... and however questionable it is it was done using democracy. There be nasty nasty men in them thar hills. However the people did get on at one point in time and I've seen some positive steps being taken by the people of the country, as well as some questionable ones (yes, on TV... I imagine the rest). Not that that offers any form of comfort, but it's over nothing more than rights to resources and the guidance of policy by applying financial pressure... give or take.

**Brian d marge** · 1st July 2014, 19:40

I want to know how long it will be before the eu use the word austerity

**mark247** · 1st July 2014, 19:45

Originally Posted by mashman

Aye, there are wrongs and there are wrongs... the wrongs are a govt requirement for some reason.

What I was aiming for was that there was a popular vote over Crimea... and however questionable it is it was done using democracy. There be nasty nasty men in them thar hills. However the people did get on at one point in time and I've seen some positive steps being taken by the people of the country, as well as some questionable ones (yes, on TV... I imagine the rest).

I just find it hard to believe that a general trend ( surveys over previous years shows more and more support for Crimea to stay an autonomous republic within Ukraine ) instantly turns from 65% (ish) support in 2013 to 97% for joining Russia. Even if they were all diehard Russian patriots I can't see this happening. A more than questionable referendum, at gunpoint, is not using democracy.. it is pure bullshit.

**mashman** · 1st July 2014, 19:57

Originally Posted by mark247

I just find it hard to believe that a general trend ( surveys over previous years shows more and more support for Crimea to stay an autonomous republic within Ukraine ) instantly turns from 65% (ish) support in 2013 to 97% for joining Russia. Even if they were all diehard Russian patriots I can't see this happening. A more than questionable referendum, at gunpoint, is not using democracy.. it is pure bullshit.

lol... I don't disagree with you. However the democratic system was used, tis the outcome that is questionable... and the reasons for that outcome as a thing that the tin foil hat fraternity get to kick about in 10 years time.