No ... you don't know at all.. The "Potential" of joining NATO is the "potential" having their old Uncle (Sam) joining the (possible) fracas on their side.
Would Putin really need that threat if he was actually WAS seriously looking at crossing those borders .. ?? I doubt it.
The Soviets are having enough issues getting enough troops to deal with his current military movements.
If Putin starts another invasion somewhere else ... it doubles the required supply lines ... and troop numbers that are already stretched.
But I doubt an invasion elsewhere is on the cards.
Putin's popularity with the Soviet population ... maybe with some degree of uncertainty with what their non-support could lead to ... but it gives him the ability to continue with the returning of Soviet territory to Rodina.The announcement of a partial mobilization of Russian citizens in September was the first time since the invasion of Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating had dipped significantly. According to a survey by the independent institute Levada Center, the approval of Putin in Russia rose once more in the following months, reaching 82 percent again in January. The invasion itself had boosted Putin’s popularity at home from around 70 percent to 83 percent in March 2022. The Russian president announced during his annual address yesterday that the country was exiting the New START nuclear non-proliferation treaty with the United States, the only pact on nuclear weapons regulation for the two countries.
The Russian state-controlled media pushing the narrative of a mission to "denazify" Ukraine and to return it to Russia where it historically belonged explains why Putin’s approval can stay so high despite the country now being extremely marginalized in the international community and enduring the hardships of sanctions and war mobilization. Despite the surveys carried out by an independent researcher, Russians might still feel pressured to give a favorable opinion of the head of state due to the oppressive system they live in.
If he achieves that ... the awarding on the title Hero of the Russian Federation awaits.
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