The Ukraine

[pritch]

And then someone makes that point that can't be argued against ...

The guy asking the questions is being dishonest. Countries that did not previously want to be in NATO have applied to join since Putin invaded Ukraine.
They can see what is happening and they will be aware of the speeches made on Russian TV advocating invading other former soviet bloc countries.

Any country sharing a border with Russia in 2023 has cause to be nervous.

[mashman]

The guy asking the questions is being dishonest. Countries that did not previously want to be in NATO have applied to join since Putin invaded Ukraine.
They can see what is happening and they will be aware of the speeches made on Russian TV advocating invading other former soviet bloc countries.

Any country sharing a border with Russia in 2023 has cause to be nervous.

Dishonest? Is that you Kirby?

Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and a few others.

"not one inch eastward" U.S. Secretary of State James Baker

[husaberg]

And then someone makes that point that can't be argued against ...

Dishonest? Is that you Kirby?

Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and a few others.

"not one inch eastward" U.S. Secretary of State James Baker

Lets see back in reality.

One of the key issues that has arisen in connection with the events in Ukraine is NATO expansion into the East. Do you get the feeling that your Western partners lied to you when they were developing their future plans in Eastern Europe? Why didn’t you insist that the promises made to you – particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that NATO would not expand into the East – be legally encoded? I will quote Baker: “NATO will not move one inch further east.”

Mikhail Gorbachev:
The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a singe Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and [German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich] Genscher talked about it.

All you are doing is parroting pro putin propaganda.

[pritch]

Dishonest? Is that you Kirby?

Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and a few others.

"not one inch eastward" U.S. Secretary of State James Baker

The first country that came to mind was Finland which has a long border with Russia, which has experienced Russian invasion, and which had no desire to join NATO - until Putin attacked Ukraine. Estonia has been mentioned in Russia as a potential target, so too Montenagro. Eastern European countries have cause to want a collective defence agreement.

[pritch]

Until recently I hadn't even heard of Transnistria. A narrow strip of land between Moldova and Romania, it is not recognised as an independent state by any other country. The people though do not want to be a part of either neighbour and there have long been Russian troops based there.

Although tiny it has potential to be a pawn in Putin's power games. If you want to know more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wi0BJrKOwo

[mashman]

The first country that came to mind was Finland which has a long border with Russia, which has experienced Russian invasion, and which had no desire to join NATO - until Putin attacked Ukraine. Estonia has been mentioned in Russia as a potential target, so too Montenagro. Eastern European countries have cause to want a collective defence agreement.

I got what you meant when you said "since Putin invaded Ukraine", but Matt Lee (pretty well respected really), who you said was being dishonest, was asking about the encroachment that led up to the 'invasion', hence the mini list provided... something many geopolitical commentators have quite soberly been pointing out for the last 30ish years as a very real possibility given the numerous warnings given over that time and the constant encroachment. Well, that day arrived about a year ago.

With regards to the fear over Russia and countries signing up coz scared of reds under beds. The countries you mention already had a guarantee in place in the form of "not one more inch". Stupidity tests that ad infinitum. No one had to request to join and NATO did not have to accept. If Russia had gone on a murderous bender without at least some form of justification, the rest of the world would have piled in a la Iraq. None of that can be the case and Russia is unfortunately justified with regards to some of what they're doing. That it turns into a clusterfuck is not a surprise given the wars that we've seen in our time and the outright lies that were used to justify them. Meh, everyone was warned. Expect the worse or get Zelensky to back down with regards to the 2 regions that requested THEIR preference for 'ownership'. No one truly gives a shit that these 2 regions asked for Russian patrionage, which is odd really, because isn't that what international laws are setup to address? It seems not.

[husaberg]

With regards to the fear over Russia and countries signing up coz scared of reds under beds. The countries you mention already had a guarantee in place in the form of "not one more inch". Stupidity tests that ad infinitum. No one had to request to join and NATO did not have to accept. If Russia had gone on a murderous bender without at least some form of justification, the rest of the world would have piled in a la Iraq. None of that can be the case and Russia is unfortunately justified with regards to some of what they're doing. That it turns into a clusterfuck is not a surprise given the wars that we've seen in our time and the outright lies that were used to justify them. Meh, everyone was warned. Expect the worse or get Zelensky to back down with regards to the 2 regions that requested THEIR preference for 'ownership'. No one truly gives a shit that these 2 regions asked for Russian patrionage, which is odd really, because isn't that what international laws are setup to address? It seems not.

Just because you double down on a lie doesn't make it true. it just proves you intend to mislead people.

One of the key issues that has arisen in connection with the events in Ukraine is NATO expansion into the East. Do you get the feeling that your Western partners lied to you when they were developing their future plans in Eastern Europe? Why didn’t you insist that the promises made to you – particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that NATO would not expand into the East – be legally encoded? I will quote Baker: “NATO will not move one inch further east.”

Mikhail Gorbachev:
The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a singe Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn’t bring it up, either. Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces from the alliance would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement, mentioned in your question, was made in that context. Kohl and [German Vice Chancellor Hans-Dietrich] Genscher talked about it.

[FJRider]

With regards to the fear over Russia and countries signing up coz scared of reds under beds. The countries you mention already had a guarantee in place in the form of "not one more inch". Stupidity tests that ad infinitum. No one had to request to join and NATO did not have to accept. If Russia had gone on a murderous bender without at least some form of justification, the rest of the world would have piled in a la Iraq. None of that can be the case and Russia is unfortunately justified with regards to some of what they're doing. That it turns into a clusterfuck is not a surprise given the wars that we've seen in our time and the outright lies that were used to justify them. Meh, everyone was warned. Expect the worse or get Zelensky to back down with regards to the 2 regions that requested THEIR preference for 'ownership'. No one truly gives a shit that these 2 regions asked for Russian patronage, which is odd really, because isn't that what international laws are setup to address? It seems not.

They are NOT scared of "Reds under the beds" ... they ARE scared of Russian tanks and troops rolling down their streets. They ARE scared of Russian aircraft bombing their cities and buildings, roads and bridges, their Government buildings ... power stations ... and any other structure that might aid the invading troops to overun their country.

Those countries that applied for NATO Membership ... are justified in being a tad nervous about The Soviets intentions. You would be too ... if you lived there.

How would our government feel about the Southland (or Otago) region requesting they become part of Australia ??

Perhaps you should look up the (International) rules regarding the declaration of independence. It seems you haven't.

[mashman]

They are NOT scared of "Reds under the beds" ... they ARE scared of Russian tanks and troops rolling down their streets. They ARE scared of Russian aircraft bombing their cities and buildings, roads and bridges, their Government buildings ... power stations ... and any other structure that might aid the invading troops to overun their country.

Those countries that applied for NATO Membership ... are justified in being a tad nervous about The Soviets intentions. You would be too ... if you lived there.

How would our government feel about the Southland (or Otago) region requesting they become part of Australia ??

Perhaps you should look up the (International) rules regarding the declaration of independence. It seems you haven't.

I know what they're scared of.

They are, just as they knew the potential consequences of joining NATO might be the inviting of what they were trying to prevent.

That's silly.

Yawn.

[pete376403]

I know what they're scared of.

They are, just as they knew the potential consequences of joining NATO might be the inviting of what they were trying to prevent.

That's silly.

Yawn.

Joining NATO guarantees assistance and help. Not joining NATO only gets offers of assistance and help, to a degree. No matter how insane putin may be, he wont take a chance on invading a NATO member (especially now russias military has been shown up to be less than effective)

[george formby]

This is an interesting watch, the Suwalki gap and Lithuania.

Not Ukraine, I know, nevertheless relevant.

[mashman]

Joining NATO guarantees assistance and help. Not joining NATO only gets offers of assistance and help, to a degree. No matter how insane putin may be, he wont take a chance on invading a NATO member (especially now russias military has been shown up to be less than effective)

Yes, there is no guarantee that you'll get NATO forces if you're not a part of NATO. Makes perfect sense. However, a country is likely to receive the backing of more than just NATO members if they're not. Either way there'd be support if Russia was involved, just coz.

[TheDemonLord]

If Russia had gone on a murderous bender without at least some form of justification, the rest of the world would have piled in a la Iraq.

It's amazing how much simply having ICBMs goes to providing a 'justification'.

[pete376403]

Yes, there is no guarantee that you'll get NATO forces if you're not a part of NATO. Makes perfect sense. However, a country is likely to receive the backing of more than just NATO members if they're not. Either way there'd be support if Russia was involved, just coz.

Its more like a guarantee that, if not a member of NATO, you WONT get NATO forces. Just as what is happening in Ukraine - there has been some hardware assistance but no NATO boots on the ground. All of those non-NATO countries that might offer assistance, just coz - while nice, cannot offer the fire power that NATO has. If russia is invading, you want more than thoughts and prayers, you want things that go BOOM, delivered to the invaders front door.

[mashman]

Its more like a guarantee that, if not a member of NATO, you WONT get NATO forces. Just as what is happening in Ukraine - there has been some hardware assistance but no NATO boots on the ground. All of those non-NATO countries that might offer assistance, just coz - while nice, cannot offer the fire power that NATO has. If russia is invading, you want more than thoughts and prayers, you want things that go BOOM, delivered to the invaders front door.

I guess my distinction wasn't clear enough. NATO has member states supply part/all of their armed forces for use by NATO. Pretty much every single one of those countries has been involved in some war, sometimes all of them, outwith any NATO involvement, and with the same lethal hardware. If Russia is invading there'll be lots of things flying through the air to clear the way before much else happens. As you say, thoughts and prayers won't really cut it in response, but neither does poking the bear help either.