The Ukraine

[husaberg]

Drones as used in Ukraine are interesting. Ukraine wanted cluster bombs, the US has them in storage but they are illegal now. Consequently the Americans were not keen to supply them.

Ukraine doesn't want to use them as cluster bombs though, they want to disassemble them and remove the bomblets. They want to drop the bomblets from their drones. Clever stuff.

The Russians were using cluster bombs in Syria they showed a video on RT then had to delete it later.
http://www.stopclustermunitions.org/.../in-syria.aspx

Convention on Cluster Munitions - Wikipedia
According to Cluster Munition Monitor 2022, the list of 16 countries that refuse to sign the convention and produce cluster munitions included Brazil, China, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Israel, India, North Korea, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, the United States and Turkey.

The difference is USA and other's unlike Russia dont tend to use them or thermobaric bombs on civilians .

[R650R]

Drones as used in Ukraine are interesting. Ukraine wanted cluster bombs, the US has them in storage but they are illegal now. Consequently the Americans were not keen to supply them.

Ukraine doesn't want to use them as cluster bombs though, they want to disassemble them and remove the bomblets. They want to drop the bomblets from their drones. Clever stuff.

In his book about Iraq, tank commander colonel MacGregor describes cluster bombs as a nightmare to use in combat. This is due to a high failure rate among the multiple bombleys within a cluster. So you suppress the enemy but as you advance through area you lose tracks off vehicles and take out your own infantry on foot. It was so bad he eventually started going around those areas.
Whether or not the failure rate is same with drone Mount individual remains to be seen.
Post war civilians mostly children are injured playing with them.

[R650R]

I think Tradition more suggests that engaging in all-out warefare against a Nuclear power is a massive risk.

I also don't think that Ukraine is fighting with one hand behind their back - I'm not sure they have the manpower and resources for a counter-offensive into a Russia. Yet.

What gets me is the continual announcement on mainstream media in advance of coming counter strikes and battle plans. It’s almost as if they’d like the Russians to know anything they might not have realised themselves.
Man power wise they have lost nearly half their population according to experts whether through conflict or escape to other countries. Russians have population base to keep grinding a war of attrition which is what is going on. This is Afghanistan mkIII

In the background we have chatter about war with China. Truth is west has about enough conventional weapons to wage full warfare for a week then out of resources. The Chinese would win based on population base and mindset, a couple million dead is no big deal to them.

In the west we are delusional about our strength. Post Vietnam the USA has consistently only battled with less than peer adversary’s and still stuffed it up often. Even the Wagner chief compliments Ukraine’s fighting spirit but war is a numbers game.

[R650R]

Nah. Traditionally surrender has been an option. No negotiations much at all.

History hasn't seen much of this kind of warfare. We are inventing new types. The Irish "troubles" for instance. The first time in history one side had to give the other side a free shot.

Ukraine is fighting with one hand behind their back. Tradition suggests they should be doing to Russian cities what the Russians have been doing to theirs but that would be too scary. Personally I think that's a mistake. The Russian population had no idea what was going on. Young Russians in Ukraine could not convince their parents what was actually happening. The parents believed Putin's propaganda and thought their kids were mistaken. Now that large numbers of their sons have been shipped home in body bags the penny might be starting to drop. Hopefully somebody will decide Russia needs a new president.

We should be careful of what we wish for, we could end up with someone even more hardline in power. I’m sure Russian families feel sadness of war losses as much as any western families would. But they also know what an American puppet state/NATO base on their border would mean.
We got all upset here just about the prospect of China having bigger influence in Fiji and other pacific islands. It’s the same exact thing but without the big expanse of water.
Russians are quite a conservative society, after everything they went through under peristroika reforms I don’t think they are keen for change. There’s prob a limited appeal to the idea of standing in breadlines again….

[husaberg]

. Russians have population base to keep grinding a war of attrition which is what is going on. This is Afghanistan mkIII

.

The Russians lost against Afghanistan as there own people were sick of there kids needlessly dying in another country fighting a war and the sanctions against the USSR were crippling them

[pete376403]

The Russians lost against Afghanistan as there own people were sick of there kids needlessly dying in another country fighting a war and the sanctions against the USSR were crippling them

Similar in a way to USA /Vietnam. Not a popular war with the public and the financial costs were, if not crippling, then extreme. And Russia will (probably) loose in Ukraine for the same reasons. What major wars in recent (last hundred years or so) have been won by the country that started them? Being attacked is a compelling way of getting the populace onside with the government as well as allied countries.

[husaberg]

Similar in a way to USA /Vietnam. Not a popular war with the public and the financial costs were, if not crippling, then extreme. And Russia will (probably) loose in Ukraine for the same reasons. What major wars in recent (last hundred years or so) have been won by the country that started them? Being attacked is a compelling way of getting the populace onside with the government as well as allied countries.

Yip same with Iraq and the yanks, i believe they lost the same amount of people in the open war as they did in the first month of occupation.
you can easily win a war when the combatant is weaker when you are fighting each other on equal terms but if the other side is not wearing a uniform and then blends back into the civilian population uses hit and un guerilla tactics or terrorist bombs etc has the support of the native population the invader can never really win unless they remove the population completely like the Germans tried to do with Poland.
In the Ukraine the people defending their country are far more motivated as its their own country the Russians on the other hand are conscripted against their will, fighting a war that means nothing to them but everything to those they are fighting against.

The yanks with Afghanistan and USSR like the Russians did with Vietnam supplied the resistance extensively with expensive weapons to even out the odds.
stinger missiles in 1986 Sams and rpgs in 1962....
Three of the first four Stingers fired each took down a Mil-24D helicopter gunships deployed by the Soviets to enforce their control over Afghanistan.
The stingers cost (at cost price for the US govt) $36000 each in 1986.
the av income in USD then for an Afghani was about 800usd. That's 45 peoples full earnings for a entire year.

[R650R]

Well so much for the coup everyone’s being waiting for….

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/3...military-sites

My moneys on the Wagner chief being served up a big Mac with a side of polonium at a future lunch date….
I hope Jacinda was watching all this, smart people turned around a private battle hardened army of 25,000 people with nothing to lose by merely accepting a form of dialogue was needed.

Of course it could all be a well managed psy-op by Putin tricking Ukraine fresh reinforcements to charge into another bahut style trap…

[husaberg]

Well so much for the coup everyone’s being waiting for….

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/3...military-sites

My moneys on the Wagner chief being served up a big Mac with a side of polonium at a future lunch date….
I hope Jacinda was watching all this, smart people turned around a private battle hardened army of 25,000 people with nothing to lose by merely accepting a form of dialogue was needed.

Of course it could all be a well managed psy-op by Putin tricking Ukraine fresh reinforcements to charge into another bahut style trap…

So its now 500 days of the 3 day war you claimed would never happen....