11 October 2015: The Russian air support for the Syrian government forces has been effective, mainly because the Russians don’t care if civilians are in the way and get hurt.
This is just as well because a lot of the Russian bombs are unguided.
Russia does have GPS and laser guided bombs but not a lot of them. There are also many targets that can be destroyed just as easily with dumb bombs, especially if you are not concerned about dead civilians. The Russians are apparently shipping in thousands of unguided aircraft bombs, most (if not all) of them dating back to the Cold War (that ended in 1991). Syria, however is still using locally fabricated bombs and will probably continue to as Syrian helicopters are not equipped to drop aerial bombs. With Russian help the Syrian helicopter force will now increase but helicopters often make effective bombers.
Since 2012 the Syrians have been dropping barrels filled with flammable liquids and explosives, rigged to explode when they hit the ground. This sort of thing is not unique to Syria and has been seen for years in Sudan where the government uses “barrel bombs” rolled out of transports and helicopters.
These are not precision weapons, but if the target is a village or other residential area, they are accurate enough. The Syrian barrel bombs have been used frequently against civilian targets like markets, mosques, hospitals, schools and apartment buildings. This has persuaded many anti-Assad Syrians to flee the country which is exactly what the government wants. Now many of these Syrian refugees are forcing their way into Europe, which is another win as far as the Assads are concerned.
Russian troops began arriving in late August and by mid-September began launching air strikes. That accelerated on 9th October and will continue to do so as more and more Russian cargo ships arrive with weapons, troops, ammunition and equipment. This increase in Russian military aid to Syria solves several problems for Russia. For one, it prevents the looming collapse of the Assad government, which has been losing territory at an accelerating rate in 2015 and is facing a collapse in morale among its forces and civilian supporters. Russia has been a staunch ally of the Assad dynasty since the 1970s. Iran can’t provide more aid, mainly because despite the July agreement to lift sanctions on Iran that does not go into effect until early 2016 and until then Iran is as broke as ever.
But the arrival of the Russian troops does boost Iranian morale and willingness to send in more troops to act as advisors and trainers.
Russia is only sending a few thousand ground troops but these are some of the best troops Russia has and ISIL and the other Islamic terrorist rebels will suffer much heavier casualties if they clash with these Russians. All this will boost morale among troops and Syrian civilians in Assad territory and make it more likely that a Russian peace proposal that keeps the Assads in power, even if it means a partition of Syria, will be more acceptable to the world. Russia says it is sending only “volunteers”. This is a policy adopted in Ukraine, and for good reason. While “acting strong” is popular with most Russians, the risk of your own conscripted sons getting sent to Ukraine or Syria and killed or maimed is definitely not popular.
To the dismay of Russian leaders it was found that even when young volunteer (“contract”) soldiers get hurt there is popular backlash. This despite a government willingness to pay compensation (not a Russian tradition) to families of the dead, as well as to disabled soldiers. Thus Russia has an incentive to rely a lot on tech and mercenaries (mainly supplied by Iran) to avoid Russian casualties. That said the Russian force is not large (because Russian cannot afford a larger force) and they are depending on terror to help out. Russians make no secret of their indifference to civilian casualties and the use of terror against their enemies. ISIL sees this as more of a threat than the more high-tech Americans.
By mid-September Russia had brought in enough warplanes and troops to support and protect the airbase near the coast in Latakia province. Despite Russian talk about it all being about ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant), most of the attacks so far have been against the most immediate threats to the twenty percent of Syria that the Assad forces control. This means rebels who are trying to defeat the Assads and not, like ISIL, seeking to establish a worldwide Islamic religious dictatorship. To placate foreign criticism Russia did hint that a column might be sent east to threaten the ISIL capital Raqqa. That would certainly be possible but even the Russians realize that most of the ISIL gunmen in the east are based among the population outside Raqqa and while these fanatics would die in large numbers they would also be inflicting a lot of unwelcome casualties on whoever the Russians had fighting on the ground.
Nevertheless the Syrian government and their Iranian military advisors are examining the idea of sending a ground force of Syrian and mercenary (non-Russian) troops to Raqqa, assisted by ruthless Russian air power.
Russia wants to carry out a “heroic intervention” to defeat ISIL and earn some positive publicity. That sort of thing is badly needed as Russia is currently seen as a treacherous bully because of its aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere in East Europe. By the end of the year Russia expects to turn that around, even if some depict them as a treacherous and opportunistic hero. Smashing ISIL would nevertheless be praised and appreciated. It would also be seen as a defeat for America and affirmation of Russian might and loyalty to its allies. The main problem Russia faces is doing this with a minimum of Russian casualties. That means inspiring the Syrian military, the Hezbollah militia and Iranian mercenaries to do most of the dangerous work on the ground.
Russia admits that it is breaking the UN embargo to supply the Assad government with new weapons. That was clear as Russia announced the sale to Syria of another twelve MiG-29s. Only nine will be delivered by the end of 2016 and the last three will arrive in 2017. Russia appears determined to immediately do a lot to rebuild what is left of the Syrian Air Force, which has suffered enormous (over 70 percent) losses since 2011. Russia has always provided tech and material (spare parts) support for this largely Russian fleet of warplanes and helicopters but not enough for the Syrians to keep more than 30 percent of the 370 aircraft and helicopters operational. The surge of Russian support will mean the Syrian Air Force can be rebuilt and thus be even more active. The 50 or so Russian aircraft in Syria consist of Su-34 and Su-30 fighter-bombers, Su-24M bombers and Su-25 ground attack aircraft as well as about a dozen armed helicopters. There are also many transport helicopters.
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Originally Posted by Swoop
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