The Future of Work

[Voltaire]

Not long to go now:

At the 2012 Singularity Summit, Stuart Armstrong did a study of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions by experts and found a wide range of predicted dates, with a median value of 2040.

22 years left until computers design computers that design computers and so on.

I should have my Norton sorted by then.....

[Ocean1]

If I had a kid I'd advise them to learn how to write code.

Leaving aside porters, weavers, thatchers, miners, tanners, fletchers and other olde worlde jobs for now...

Before I retired I was looking at some old files, many of the jobs that were available in the early 70s when there was full employment are just not there anymore. Freezing works, car assembly plants, woollen mills, the toll room, most of the retail jobs in town are gone. Many of the people that might have done them aren't doing something else, they are on the dole. And so in some cases are their kids.

I note that in the US, experts keep saying Trump is mistaken in thinking that all of the lost jobs there went overseas. Increasing numbers are being lost to automation.

The agrarian sector is not immune. For some time now dairy farm herd sizes havereportedly been at about the upper limit of what a couple can handle. The concern was that corporate farming would take over and that is now rearing its head. There will be a lot less farms with a lot less jobs and the jobs will not all be hugely fulfilling.

We need to come up with a better way to use the people that aren't working and another way for solo mums to improve their situation without having another kid.

Most of us can come up with a plan that would likely result in reliable employment. Planned or otherwise most of us have actually managed the employment bit. Just telling those that don't manage that how to do so doesn't work.

You can call them unfortunate casualties of a modern world, but historically there's never been any shortage of un/underemployed. You can make work for them, but historic examples show that doesn't work either.

Maybe the massive advances in production through automation can allow us to pay for some growth in unemployment. But we already pay more unemployed far more than we've ever done before.

The fact is some people simply aren't motivated to achieve much until that behavior starts hurting, and the more you subsidise that behavior the more you get. Nobody hurts much nowadays.

[Brian d marge]

It may not affect me but I do have concerns. Somebody has to come up with an idea about how the people who lose their jobs will live. At the moment the plan seems to be for the "haves" to surround their homes with walls patrolled by armed guards. Don't laugh. After hurricane Katrina in the USA one gated community was protected by Israeli mercenaries armed with automatic weapons.

The only plan in evidence in the UK seems to be to abuse the uneployed and cut their benefits. And Britain is about to lose a lot more jobs to Europe.

In Godzone apathy rules, we'll be OK for a while, but...

I'm waaay ahead of you there, Remember , I live in Tokyo , and that kinda makes Auckland look like a quaint village. But I still have a garden , and does do ok for its size 10m x 4m , herbs , ( yes ,I've thought about that.) Flowers and spuds
Enough to see me in chip butties for the rest of the year
Beer, make me own, ( not so good at the wine or whiskey, but I can.)
The wife and kids can march all day on a bowl of rice , and they can to !
The Enfield runs on gasoline , not my preferred fuel but ..it's what I have
I have solar , but not installed yet , I'm lazy.
So it's getting to the point where the only actual paid work I need to do is for
You guessed it , the bank. And that's fk all a month. and taxes , this year is a byatch due to earning a lot last year. Next year will be next to nothing . .
Today I had a meeting with 3 older people , near the river ( arakawa ) there is some land free to use , the old fella just said use it ,so the plan is to grow Japanese " soul food" for us and any surplus goes to the cafe run by special needs kids ( and it's a damn fine cafe and all , puts many places to shame ...) and anything else left over is sold on internet.
So, this year , I should be working 4 hours a week ( thank you Honda for accepting my excessive hourly billing rate &#128526 and the rest of the time , drinking me home brew in the allotment...
If all goes well
If it doesn't and the neocons get their way you will find me off grid ....83 km away from Tokyo , deep in the forest ,and I won't come out untill the war is over. Or until my commanding officer comes and gets me.
So in preparation I ,
Just bought a Colman off grid oven that works over a fire , it works a treat. Going to try a roast this Sunday, see how we go.....

I tried muffin , but that left a bad taste in me mouth.


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[Brian d marge]

Went to a Humanity and Machine Symposium today.

There were some good speakers, from Facebook to John Spence.

Seemed to think that Dairy, Tourism and Wine was not ever going to build a good economy and need to get a techy educated

population. NZ is too far away but suited an on-line economy.

One of the speakers who I gather probably did all right in the tech world said he had sold everything, lived using Uber, Air B

and B, some on line credit bitcoin app and Facebook.

They say 30% of jobs will be done by machines by 2025.

Example was self flying plane, robots unloading and drones delivering, you have probably seen the burger flipper robot, and a

lot of driving jobs.

I do wonder with the reduced tax base who will actually be buying all the stuff that robots can then do?

Will robots pay tax?

Millennials will probably be calling more of the shots with not wanting to do what boring old Baby Boomers did....they want

'meaningful jobs", " work life balance" ," Nice Work Spaces" and so on.....

The Tesla they had on display interested me until I asked the only important question I ever ask about cars....how much?

$180 000.00...... could be a while till it drops to my 10 years and $10K A to B car purchase price limit.

The Pinot Gris and Asian/Italian Fusion food was quite nice

Btw , it's called agenda 2036. And transhumanism , it's all part of the plan
If you want the document trail, I'll provide quite happily.
The only thing that ain't going to plan: is that the damn people keep talking about it and are getting more and more " onto " the game that is afoot.
Bloody peasants. And their internet.

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[Akzle]

Just bought a Colman off grid oven that works over a fire , it works a treat. Going to try a roast this Sunday, see how we go.....

I tried muffin , but that left a bad taste in me mouth.


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is it a dutch oven? i have a fokken sikk shake n bake upside down choccy cake recipe for em.
legendary when you bust it out 4 days into the boosh.

[Akzle]

Just bought a Colman off grid oven that works over a fire , it works a treat. Going to try a roast this Sunday, see how we go.....

I tried muffin , but that left a bad taste in me mouth.


Sent from my BGO-DL09 using Tapatalk

is it a dutch oven? i have a fokken sikk shake n bake upside down choccy cake recipe for em.
legendary when you bust it out 4 days into the boosh.

[Ocean1]

Can't say I was too impressed after all this catching the train home and the fecking ticket machine working up to the

payment part then stopping..

Aye, anything that saves a metric shitload of human effort fucks up in metric shitloads also.

[Katman]

More work: More pay.

Now THAT'S how Work Life Balance really works.

And with any luck you'll work yourself to an early grave.

[Ocean1]

And with any luck you'll work yourself to an early grave.

Only a fuckwit relies on luck, I work exactly as hard as I need to to earn the income I want.

Any alternative behaviour is simply dishonest.

Also: Fuck you too.

[jonbuoy]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand finally. Telling kids to learn how to write code . There are already all sorts of shite attempts at creating tools that BA's can use to generate code, but they do work(ish) and would certainly remove the need for yet more programmers. Also, programs are already being designed to recognise and use existing code to fulfill that which programs need, so it won't take too long for programs to write programs. Even if that adheres to the pareto principle, that's still a feckload less programmers required. Ya may as well lump DBA's and testers in that too. Le sigh. Tis a brave new world. Shame too many prefer the old one coz waaaaaaaa.

I taught myself to programme with Arduino - which is really aimed at education and it's helped me immensely at work. Not to mention produce quite a few useful gadgets for myself. Even if you don't write the code for equipment your working on it gives you a great insight into whats going on behind the scenes. I can't remember the last time I had to actually write a letter in cursive or tell a fairytale story from the bible.

[Dadpole]

Not long to go now:

22 years left until computers design computers that design computers and so on.
I should have my Norton sorted by then.....

I love the sheer, unbounded optimism John.

[oldrider]

At least my Wife drive car was waiting to pick me up at the other end

Most encouraging sentence in thread so far - automation is one step too far here!

[old slider]

is it a dutch oven? i have a fokken sikk shake n bake upside down choccy cake recipe for em.
legendary when you bust it out 4 days into the boosh.

Share the recipe Akzle, my Billy bread sucks, to be honest you also have to suck the bread, it quickly turns into stone once it starts to cool. lol

[Brian d marge]

Share the recipe Akzle, my Billy bread sucks, to be honest you also have to suck the bread, it quickly turns into stone once it starts to cool. lol

4, 3, 2, 1, 1/4
4 tablespoons of olive oil
3 cups of strong flour
2, tablespoons sugar
1 teaspoon yeast
1/4 teaspoon salt ( some like 1/2)

Mix , add milk or water until plyable bread dough

Dry stones in the bottom of Billy can, then baking paper or flax leaves , pine needles , seaweed or whatever , low embers, coals on the lid
Not to hot ,
If u get near an oven, a tray of water under the bread will give it a lighter fluffier texture

Sorry it's cheese spinach curry ,with dried chicken and spuds , on rice



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[mashman]

I taught myself to programme with Arduino - which is really aimed at education and it's helped me immensely at work. Not to mention produce quite a few useful gadgets for myself. Even if you don't write the code for equipment your working on it gives you a great insight into whats going on behind the scenes. I can't remember the last time I had to actually write a letter in cursive or tell a fairytale story from the bible.

Every programmer teaches themselves to program . Yeah, I've seen some cool fun stuff created with Arduino and Raspberry Pi and it does look fun. I guess it'd be great if kids, bigguns included, could choose what they wanted to learn. Heh... I sometimes have to scribble the kids a note for school, which is a chore given that I get writers cramp penning ma signature