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Thread: The 2017 Election Thread

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocean1 View Post
    The housing market is about as far as you can get from "open", so it's difficult to see where you figure that it's either failed or that the it's lack of govt control is the reason you think it has. In fact removing every parasitic element associated with house building is likely to see the single most dramatic drop in new house prices, isn't it?

    The "public sector" isn't a "market". And how do you figure private debt has been adopted by the govt? The rest of the world sees our market as being more resilient then other countries as a result of a more flexible response to market change due to having fewer artificial controls. You don't have to agree with them though.
    Coz there aren't enough houses and coz govt built hoose back in the day to deal with a similar issue. Removing every parasitic element may well make a difference, but when has there ever been such a time, in this generation, that parasites don't exist?

    I wasn't saying that the public sector was a market... although bonds n shares n shit. The E3 stats show the trend of corporate sector debt as a % of GDP dropping as public sectors' rises. But hey, you know, numbers.

    Sinking slower than others is still sinking, especially when your OECD partners are the ones who are buoying you in the first place. When they go pop, so do we.
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  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honest Andy View Post
    I believe that you're wrong about housing. Capital gains tax, immigration control and preventing overseas and absentee ownership are four things that many experts asked for years ago but the govt refused to implement any of them. I think that all of these actions implemented early would have stopped the the over-inflation in its tracks and prevented the continuing crisis. Now though, I don't know what's going to fix it except for a nasty "price adjustment" that will hurt plenty.
    I wasn't suggesting there was nothing they could do to control prices, just whether they should. I think tax should be limited to income, and while capital gains may be considered income the big lump called inflation certainly isn't income. So who dictates which bits are income? It's just horribly convoluted and by the time you factor in administration and compliance costs you end up with yet another mess overseen by yet another govt department. Immigration is a poison pill of the first water, even now you can hear the howls of "racism", no party has or will go near it as a means of controlling house prices. I don't know how much difference restricting ownership to residents would make, might be worth a shot but it would be difficult to administer and wouldn't surprise me if it made fuck all difference.

    And that nasty "price adjustment" might hurt plenty, but it's the natural correction, and it's been educating investors for generations, maybe this generation is well overdue for that lesson.

    Personally I think the correct control for house prices is making sure new ones are priced somewhere near the cost to supply. Which is currently nowhere near the case. If you could buy a new house for maybe $300k, as should be the case then the market for existing houses starts to look more reasonable, no? So I'm pissed with the govt via the commerce commission, who are supposed to manage monopolies and regulate competition. And simply haven't.
    Go soothingly on the grease mud, as there lurks the skid demon

  3. #48
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    There is plenty the govt. could have done, and far earlier.

    1. Recommending to RBNZ to implement Debt to Income ratios
    2. Removing Accommodation Supplement subsidy
    3. Taxing foreign investment on housing / Capital gains
    4. Apprenticeship training scheme to ensure adequate workforce - move people off dole
    5. Govt. build houses

    Instead, they've let shit fester and have no plans to fix it nor the economic imbalances it creates.

    Allowing an inflationary cycle which requires more and more borrowing from overseas banks to purchase our own land in our own country is long term financial suicide.

    It means less disposable income day after day in the pocket for working kiwis.
    In turn they spend less at local businesses.
    Those local businesses already operate on tight margins and cannot afford wage increases,
    so what happens.... more spending on social welfare - from topping up home loan deposits, accommodation supplements, WFF, list goes on and on.

    National has now expanded providing social welfare support to the middle classes and flaunt increasing payments of Social Welfare as some kind of victory. What a success. More people reliant on government handouts.

    Kiwisaver was created to replace the unaffordable universal pension. Now the majority need to use it for a housing deposit sucking $$ away from investment into businesses and growth. It's like a repeat of Muldoon's pension planning in the 70s. It's unlikely that the majority of younger people will have enough in retirement when their retirement savings are being wasted on housing. Instead they will now need government assistance.

    We're not a big enough country population wise nor is our economy diverse and strong enough to absorb such an imbalance. We are a low wage economy, that makes most of it's money off primary exports and tourism. There's no need for high wages and high levels of social welfare if housing is affordable.

    This govt. has an inability to plan beyond their next election cycle and focused on retaining power through bribes (universal pension, tax cuts) rather than making any hardball long term decisions.

    Some day soon, someone is going to need to pay the bill. Rogernomics 2.0 will be fucking brutal.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by mashman View Post
    Coz there aren't enough houses and coz govt built hoose back in the day to deal with a similar issue. Removing every parasitic element may well make a difference, but when has there ever been such a time, in this generation, that parasites don't exist?

    I wasn't saying that the public sector was a market... although bonds n shares n shit. The E3 stats show the trend of corporate sector debt as a % of GDP dropping as public sectors' rises. But hey, you know, numbers.

    Sinking slower than others is still sinking, especially when your OECD partners are the ones who are buoying you in the first place. When they go pop, so do we.
    So rather than repeat the failed experiments of previous governments why not simply remove the restrictions currently in place driving up prices? Just 'cause we've always had parasites don't mean we can't do without them.

    So no actual relationship between the two, then. Why even mention it?

    But we're not sinking. And other than existing trade agreements I don't see anyone buoying us up.
    Go soothingly on the grease mud, as there lurks the skid demon

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by mada View Post
    There is plenty the govt. could have done, and far earlier.

    1. Recommending to RBNZ to implement Debt to Income ratios
    2. Removing Accommodation Supplement subsidy

    Amounts to "stop people buying houses". Which would work just fine as long as you don't mind the pain in your foot.

    3. Taxing foreign investment on housing / Capital gains
    4. Apprenticeship training scheme to ensure adequate workforce - move people off dole

    They've been trying to move people off the dole for some time now, y'know...

    5. Govt. build houses

    Yep, means arseholing local body control, so I'm all for it.

    Instead, they've let shit fester and have no plans to fix it nor the economic imbalances it creates.

    Allowing an inflationary cycle which requires more and more borrowing from overseas banks to purchase our own land in our own country is long term financial suicide.

    It means less disposable income day after day in the pocket for working kiwis.

    Let's just consider that possibly the very best person to decide what they can afford to borrow is the dude doing the borrowing, eh? As far as I can see it's nobody else's business.

    In turn they spend less at local businesses.
    Those local businesses already operate on tight margins and cannot afford wage increases,
    so what happens.... more spending on social welfare - from topping up home loan deposits, accommodation supplements, WFF, list goes on and on.

    National has now expanded providing social welfare support to the middle classes and flaunt increasing payments of Social Welfare as some kind of victory. What a success. More people reliant on government handouts.

    National did that, eh?

    Kiwisaver was created to replace the unaffordable universal pension. Now the majority need to use it for a housing deposit sucking $$ away from investment into businesses and growth. It's like a repeat of Muldoon's pension planning in the 70s. It's unlikely that the majority of younger people will have enough in retirement when their retirement savings are being wasted on housing. Instead they will now need government assistance.

    We're not a big enough country population wise nor is our economy diverse and strong enough to absorb such an imbalance. We are a low wage economy, that makes most of it's money off primary exports and tourism. There's no need for high wages and high levels of social welfare if housing is affordable.

    This govt. has an inability to plan beyond their next election cycle and focused on retaining power through bribes (universal pension, tax cuts) rather than making any hardball long term decisions.

    Some call those bribes policy. And the minute you decide you know better than the majority how shit should be done you have a dictatorship. Don't go there.

    Some day soon, someone is going to need to pay the bill. Rogernomics 2.0 will be fucking brutal.
    ............
    Go soothingly on the grease mud, as there lurks the skid demon

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocean1 View Post
    So rather than repeat the failed experiments of previous governments why not simply remove the restrictions currently in place driving up prices? Just 'cause we've always had parasites don't mean we can't do without them.

    So no actual relationship between the two, then. Why even mention it?

    But we're not sinking. And other than existing trade agreements I don't see anyone buoying us up.
    You mean not building houses... obviously you don't, but that's why we need more houses. Did you just blame the govt lol. Prices go up for a great many reasons and I'd love to see you remove a Council (who have very little to do with housing and need to up their rates for BAU so as not to have to dip into the LGFA for investment) or indeed real estate agents or indeed try to prevent the "open market" from setting its own price for materials and labour etc...

    Of course there is. Trends are used in Forecasting for a reason. If there weren't a relationship, the govt wouldn't have to borrow to offset the lower "income" from the corporates.

    Of course we're sinking. You don't think that our exports are being buoyed by our trading partners? Ok.
    I didn't think!!! I experimented!!!

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocean1 View Post
    I wasn't suggesting there was nothing they could do to control prices, just whether they should.
    Yes you were. And you were wrong.
    I think tax should be limited to income, and while capital gains may be considered income the big lump called inflation certainly isn't income. So who dictates which bits are income? It's just horribly convoluted and by the time you factor in administration and compliance costs you end up with yet another mess overseen by yet another govt department.
    No it isn't, it's easy, and there is already a department set up for taxes.
    Immigration is a poison pill of the first water, even now you can hear the howls of "racism", no party has or will go near it as a means of controlling house prices.
    That's just rubbish
    I don't know how much difference restricting ownership to residents would make, might be worth a shot but it would be difficult to administer and wouldn't surprise me if it made fuck all difference.
    Quite. Nobody really knows unless we try it. And using a number of measures all at once would probably work better.

    And that nasty "price adjustment" might hurt plenty, but it's the natural correction, and it's been educating investors for generations, maybe this generation is well overdue for that lesson.
    Yeah, yeah, "natural correction", we've been hearing that from Billy and Johno, but it's only natural if the prices become overinflated in the first place. And you seem to forget, or it hasn't occurred to you, that the people who will hurt most aren't the investors but the ordinary house owners. The investors I know have been selling the odd renta to fund a better lifestyle, and aren't really bothered at all.

    Personally I think the correct control for house prices is making sure new ones are priced somewhere near the cost to supply. Which is currently nowhere near the case. If you could buy a new house for maybe $300k, as should be the case then the market for existing houses starts to look more reasonable, no?
    No. You can build a little house for $300k but you've forgotten about the land, another $300k plus. Besides, how will you stop investors buying them all and onselling at a higher price? (this already happens daily by the way, also the "affordable housing scheme" has been proven to be un-enforcable)

    So I'm pissed with the govt via the commerce commission, who are supposed to manage monopolies and regulate competition. And simply haven't.
    Sorry mate, I think you're either being obtuse, or just stirring the pot, or you drink with sir john
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  8. #53
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    Can sum up National's approach in two words "Defeatist mentality"

    Housing - cant do anything
    Immigration - cant do anything
    Productivity - cant do anything
    Unaffordable social welfare - cant do anything (but we can increase it!)
    Unaffordable and ballooning pension - cant do anything, lets not plan for it
    Upcoming job losses from automation - cant do anything, lets not plan for it
    Infrastructure not keeping pace - cant do anything, lets blame hamstrung councils like the Supershitty which we created
    Mental health - cant do anything

    If you have had 9 years and can't do anything and its too hard, GTFO of government then.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honest Andy View Post
    Sorry mate, I think you're either being obtuse, or just stirring the pot, or you drink with sir john
    Or they're perfectly valid arguments you just don't agree with.

    Which is fine.
    Go soothingly on the grease mud, as there lurks the skid demon

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by mada View Post
    Can sum up National's approach in two words "Defeatist mentality"

    Housing - cant do anything
    Immigration - cant do anything
    Productivity - cant do anything
    Unaffordable social welfare - cant do anything (but we can increase it!)
    Unaffordable and ballooning pension - cant do anything, lets not plan for it
    Upcoming job losses from automation - cant do anything, lets not plan for it
    Infrastructure not keeping pace - cant do anything, lets blame hamstrung councils like the Supershitty which we created
    Mental health - cant do anything

    If you have had 9 years and can't do anything and its too hard, GTFO of government then.
    I think your expectations are a little overwrought.

    There are actually things an individual can do to help themselves, y'know, and the more you demand govt does the less freedom everyone ends up with.
    Go soothingly on the grease mud, as there lurks the skid demon

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocean1 View Post
    Or they're perfectly valid arguments you just don't agree with.

    Which is fine.
    Yeah, you could be right

    So I'll still let you buy me a beer sometime...
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  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honest Andy View Post
    Yeah, you could be right

    So I'll still let you buy me a beer sometime...
    Only if you pay the tax on it.
    Go soothingly on the grease mud, as there lurks the skid demon

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ocean1 View Post
    Only if you pay the tax on it.
    Rido. As soon as I finish paying for my bank manager's new boat...
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  14. #59
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    It is quite disturbing to hear liarbour's approach to finances.
    Today they stated that they will be borrowing a few billion dollars more to have laying about, just to throw at things if they occur. So, paying interest on the loan just to have money sitting idle. Yeah, great idea.

    The other issue is simply the "borrow money to throw around" approach? Remember when they wasted the taxpayer's piggybank on buying kiwisnail back at a grossly over-inflated price, just before they were booted out of government?
    TOP QUOTE: “The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”

  15. #60
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    I am voting as i have done for the last few elections. ALCP. Another reason for tourists to come here... We'd be spending less with policing and courts too

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