Only Syria/(Cuba?) and Iran to go now almost got the jackpot - "Give me control of the finances of the world I care not who makes the laws!" - Rothschild.
Just faidin away!
Only Syria/(Cuba?) and Iran to go now almost got the jackpot - "Give me control of the finances of the world I care not who makes the laws!" - Rothschild.
Hardcore Biker
Andre Vltchek is a Russian investigative journalist who has visited many
countries disliked or ostracised by the West.
An article plus a 25 minute video clip of his recent visit to North Korea.
If nothing else, interesting to see (at 14 min mark) a speech by a former
US Attorney General to a NK audience.
https://journal-neo.org/2018/07/27/r...to-my-readers/
Other articles are present on his website:
http://andrevltchek.weebly.com/articles.html
Hardcore Biker
Those Russkies ! Just can't help themselves.
When they're not poking their nose into other country's elections, they're busy
talking about peace and promotion of trade. Meddle, meddle, meddle.
Koreas
http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/t...l-cooperation/
Who knows after that? Next they'll be linking up railways and building gas pipelines.
Japan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...-impress-Japan
Both look like long roads, with many steps to take. But there are some points
along the way, which could deliver mutual benefit. If some are willing to change
their current thinking (and behaviour).
Hardcore Biker
http://www.atimes.com/article/moon-l...mmit-with-kim/
It is interesting to see the increasing amount of interaction between the two Koreas,
and that business teams will accompany the SK politicians on this round of talks.
The simple fact exists that both parties are Korean, and despite differences between
their current political and economic structures, the current enforced separation is but
a relatively "short" time blip within the overall history of Korea.
If they come to some agreement over future handling of events that could lead to
military escalation and NK continues to be seen as "positive towards engagement",
this would obviously help in building of mutual trust between NK and SK. Which is
an important ingredient in any political rapprochement.
Promising signs. Still very early days, and a long road ahead.
But it poses the question "what is to stop NK and SK agreeing to relax border controls,
and to start progressive integration ?" (at least on an economic trade basis, as was
happening earlier at Kaesong ).
Economic Benefits
Recent effort by both China and Russia have indicated significant economic benefits
to SK (e.g. supply of Russian gas by pipeline through NK to SK ; railway traffic for
for SK trade goods to Europe via NK and Russia ; shipping to Europe via the Arctic
Circle).
Proposal for development of factories using NK labour, operating with special trade
zones in northern NK (close to borders with both China and Russia).
Level of Integration
This doesn't imply that their political systems would rapidly converge, or that their
military forces would combine any time soon, but energy supply, trade and tourism
would seem ideal factors to start the integration process.
Extended Korean Integration
Unlikely to occur unless five main groups (NK, SK, China, Russia, and the US) can
come to some level of mutual agreement.
While Japan has some unresolved issues with NK (hostages?) and continues to make
noise in the background, Japan will have little weight in any decision making. [Japan's
Abe was forced to ask Trump to pose questions to Kim on Japan's behalf during the
first US - NK summit]
1. NK: Kim recognises NK has been a "closed country" for too long, and that both the
country (and his regime) are dependent upon NK opening up, developing its resources,
trading on a global market and improving his people's lot. Certain NK resources are
highly sought after (e.g. rare earths).
2. SK: The current position of SK military, intelligence and conservatives is not
very clear, other than that they have been very resistant to Korean reunification
to date. Understandable given past military confrontations.
But as older generations pass (old memories disappear) and current politics favouring
integration "take root" (if permitted), a popular ground swell for Korean integration
could easily grow.
As trade wars slowly unpack in Asia and the global financial situation becomes more
uncertain, it is likely that SK chaebols will continue looking to diversify, and to seek
to trade more with countries or regions outside the US (e.g. China, Russia, Europe).
There is the risk SK could become collateral damage during the US-China trade war.
South Koreans with memory longer than twenty years may remember what happened
to SK businesses during the currency wars of the late 1990's (i.e. the US and the IMF
were not SK's friend).
3. China: NK's prime sponsor and guarantor. Willing to be involved with establishment
of special economic trade zones involving NK and SK.
http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/t...l-cooperation/
Also keen to avoid a regional war, NK regime collapse and a potential flood of NK
refugees across the border into China.
4. Russia: Also acting as a sponsor and guarantor of NK. Willing to be involved with
(i) establishment of road, rail and gas pipeline infrastructure within the whole of
the Korean peninsula (ii) supporting oil and gas development off the NK coast, and
(iii) supply of Russian LNG from Yamal to both Koreas.
Also Willing to be involved with the establishment of special economic trade zones
involving NK and SK, as well as support Korean use of rail links (OBOR) and shipping
of goods to Europe (via the Arctic Circle).
5. The US: In effect, the main hurdle to the integration of NK and SK, and their
combined engagement with China and Russia.
Effectively using the 1953 Korean Armistice (US signing a formal peace treaty) as a
political lever on both NK and SK (and enforced by US troops permanently stationed
in SK).
http://time.com/5360343/korean-war-american-history/
Stationing of nuclear weapons in SK, plus the recent introduction of new long range
radar and missile systems to SK (able to see into and strike China). In effect, a land
based "US aircraft carrier". [Just as with Japan]
The US is able to conduct periodic military exercises in very close proximity to NK.
It is able to use SK bases to project a US military presence into the Chinese backyard
(i.e. Taiwan ; FONOPS in the South China Sea) to assist in the containment of China.
[Similar to expansion of NATO in eastern Europe towards Russia]
Direct control over SK military by the US in event of war (reporting to US regional
command).
US has strong interest in gaining access, control and exploitation of specific NK
resources. Hence Trump's 4 minute "economic benefits" video shown to Kim during
their summit. If nothing else, seek to deny access to resources to US competitors
such as China. [Just as currently occurring in Africa]
Easily willing and able to take counter-productive action (a false flag event) if
negotiations are not to their liking. Quickly able to destroy political trust and
goodwill being built up between NK and SK.
Continued US insistence that NK must achieve full denuclearisation itself before
the US would even consider the removal of US sanctions (let alone sign a formal
peace treaty). No route map and all one-way traffic at the moment, without any
guarantee to NK of any meaningful reward at the end of the process. Consequent
NK loss of nuclear deterence, currently inhibiting unilateral military action by the
US against NK.
6. External Factors to Consider:
-Increasing capability to trade and settle in other currencies (e.g. yuan, rouble
and euro) --> Reduced dependence upon the USD, and less susceptible to US
interference.
-Increasing usage of alternative market trading systems and settlement systems (e.g.
Chinese CIPS) --> Reduced dependence upon SWIFT, and to US interference.
-Proposed sale of US LNG into Asian energy market (seeking to lock out Russian supply
to the Asian market).
-US political uncertainty (i.e. who is actually in charge of the US political asylum,
and what is the likelihood of getting sign-off and meaningful US observance of any
agreement - given recent US withdrawal from the Iranian JCPOA ?)
-Willingness for various countries to consider current UN sanctions on NK as unfair,
and to simply ignore UN sanctions and start transacting business with NK (in advance
of full denuclearisation on NK's part).
Edit: Just noted immediately after posting
https://sputniknews.com/asia/2018091...ign-agreement/
Hardcore Biker
Hardcore Biker
The peace train continues on its journey. Wonder how long before it gets
halted or derailed.
https://eurasiafuture.com/2018/10/10...-against-dprk/
Hardcore Biker
Hardcore Biker
It's a difficult job being a global hegemon these days. It would be
so much easier if they'd just do as they were told.
http://www.atimes.com/article/trump-...rea-sanctions/
http://www.atimes.com/article/north-...bells-ringing/
Wearing Hi-Viz Black.
Since 1953 the four kilometre wide DMZ (demilitarized zone) has provided an impenetrable 250 kilometre barrier across the Korean peninsula. Now, for the first time, there are serious efforts by both Koreas to demilitarize the DMZ. This will include removing all the landmines in the DMZ and reconnecting roads and railroads that have been cut by the DMZ. The North Korean side of the DMZ has always been a “military zone” although the need for food has led to farming close to the DMZ.
Then there are the landmines and the DMZ is so heavily patrolled on both sides that there has never been any smuggling to speak of. On the southern side there was fifteen kilometre wide military buffer zone that excluded most civilian activity. In 2008 South Korea agreed that zone was could be reduced to ten kilometres, which allowed valuable (at least near Seoul) property to be developed. South Korea is willing to proceed on these DMZ issues even if North Korea is not making any real progress on denuclearization.
South Korea believes the North Korean economy is in such bad shape that the north risks economic and political collapse if they do not denuclearize. Unfortunately Kim Jong Un appears capable of taking that chance which is why the Americans and many South Koreans argue against the Chinese and Russian suggestion that partial progress deserves partial economic aid. That does not work because that enables Kim to keep his dictatorship going longer and continue to hold onto his nukes while still pretending to negotiate.
Kim has some legitimate fears. He knows that Ukraine agreed, in 1994, to give up its nukes if the United States and Russia agreed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine. Russia broke that deal in 2014 when they seized (and annexed) Crimea and is still trying to annex portions of eastern Ukraine. Kim is seeking a guarantee that his dynasty will not be attacked. Kim also sees the American resumption of sanctions on Iran as unacceptable. The Americans see that as the price you pay for cheating and if Kim wants commerce he will have to keep his end of the bargain. Iran did not. No one in the West, especially the Americans, is willing to make “guaranteeing Kim family rule of North Korea” part of the denuclearization deal. The Americans are thinking of something like the South African denuclearization, which worked. That’s why most people are unaware of it.
Good news is not news and not a major part of the historical record either.
North Korea is estimated to have anywhere from five to 60 nukes. The design of these nukes is primitive and it is uncertain if there is a workable design that will stand the rigors of use in a ballistic missile warhead. In short the north has nukes but delivering them is still a problem. Kim seems willing to let North Koreans suffer a lot more to prolong negotiations in the hope of getting a deal that will allow North Korea to keep some nukes. Even if he is not officially allowed to have some nukes, Kim considers it a win if the final deal enables him to hide some nukes somewhere. The Americans are determined to avoid that scenario but Kim feels he can manipulate South Korea into allowing loose enough inspection rules to let Kim get away with it. Obtaining an effective deal won’t be half as interesting as what sort of process was required to achieve it.
The first snows and freezing weather have arrived in North Korea. The harvest this year was less than last year. In some parts of the country it was so bad that local officials demanded that farmers give up part of their private plot’s harvest to make up for the shortfalls. This causes more anger in the countryside. Bad news for farmers is even worse for North Korea as a whole. The economy is getting worse because of the sanctions. This is easier to measure because there is so much more free market activity in the country and that is easier to measure accurately. In addition to prices of staples in the free markets there are also prices for apartments and houses. This has become big business because of the rise of the donju (entrepreneur) class.
Free market housing prices are down and the decline has followed the imposition and enforcement of new sanctions. Housing prices have dropped a third or more since early 2018.
In some situations prices have gone up. Bribes demanded from government officials have increased, especially what it costs to obtain membership in the WPK (Workers’ Party of Korea). Membership used to be given only to the most trustworthy and eager believers in the North Korean dictatorship. That still applies but the party doesn’t pay off as well as it used to and more things are for sale. That makes party membership more valuable in some parts of the country where bribery is a major activity for party officials. Bribes have become more difficult to obtain because North Koreans in general have less money.
In an effort to reduce police (including secret police) bribery the government has ordered an end (or sharp reductions in) to punishment of those caught owning South Korean goods. Family members of party officials are responsible for much of the demand for South Korean goods and too many of these people were getting hassled by the police over the use of South Korean products. At the same time the North Korean media makes a big deal out of leader Kim Jong Un meeting with his South Korean counterpart and this has made all things South Korean more politically acceptable even though the mere existence of the superior South Korean goods does not reflect well on North Korea.
The ongoing Chinese anti-corruption campaign hit the North Korean border in late September and North Korean customs and border security personnel cooperated. On the Chinese side border officials known to be corrupt were arrested and patrols on the river and along the shore were increased. Border police patrolled in pairs to make it less likely they could be bribed. With the Chinese side of the border locked down it was not much of a sacrifice for the North Koreans to tighten security on their side. The Chinese were keeping score of North Koreans attempting to get across and past Chinese security and apparently threatened to interfere with government approved North Korean smuggling if North Korea did not demonstrate some real cooperation in locking down the border to smugglers. It is understood that the smuggling will eventually return but it will take months and the bribes will be higher. Currently it is still possible to smuggle goods across the river but there are fewer opportunities and the risks of getting caught (and having to pay very high fines) are higher. As a practical matter that makes it uneconomical to smuggle the vast majority of things that are normally involved.
TOP QUOTE: “The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”
Hardcore Biker
Hardcore Biker
What ? Stopping hostile military action against one another ?
Is this peace starting to break out ?
Heaven forbid. We can't have that. Where's my false flag.
https://eurasiafuture.com/2018/11/01...-irreversible/
Hardcore Biker
Hardcore Biker
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks