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Thread: The journey that COVID-19 will take us on

  1. #541
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    Quote Originally Posted by pete376403 View Post
    Where do you get that figure? Using "annual death toll influenza new zealand" in Google gets me "In the winter months of 2009, a total of 49 New Zealand patients1 died with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus infection. While the Ministry of Health identified 35 deaths from pandemic influenza A(H1N1) during the first wave, the processes arranged by the PIMMRG were able to collect information on an additional 14 deaths due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)." https://www.hqsc.govt.nz/assets/PMMR...nza-report.pdf

    Pretty sure that if this number jumped from 49 to over 500 as a usual annual figure there would be some more noise made about it.
    Learn to speak google and ye shall receive. A couple of other sources showed 500ish, and given that this puppy stated "an average of 401 medical deaths annually from 1990 to 2008" and we're 12 years on, it is quite possible that 500 is closer to the truth than 49. Hence lack of noise I guess.
    I didn't think!!! I experimented!!!

  2. #542
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    Quote Originally Posted by pete376403 View Post
    Where do you get that figure? Using "annual death toll influenza new zealand" in Google gets me "In the winter months of 2009, a total of 49 New Zealand patients1 died with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus infection. While the Ministry of Health identified 35 deaths from pandemic influenza A(H1N1) during the first wave, the processes arranged by the PIMMRG were able to collect information on an additional 14 deaths due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)." https://www.hqsc.govt.nz/assets/PMMR...nza-report.pdf

    Pretty sure that if this number jumped from 49 to over 500 as a usual annual figure there would be some more noise made about it.
    2015: Ministry of Health stated there were 767 deaths from the flu (about 7 Kiwis out of 100,000 - much better however than the 49 people per 100,000 in 1970.

    2017: Otago University scientists' study concluded the flu is likely New Zealand's single biggest infectious disease killer, accounting for about 1.8 per cent of annual deaths in the country. Published in the Journal of Infection.

    2019: University of Otago's professor Michael Baker: "...these (susceptible) groups add up to around 500 deaths per year in New Zealand, a figure higher than last year's road toll. This makes influenza one of the biggest infectious disease killers in the country."

    Bear in mind that a significant percentage of the elderly who died from pneumonia (what used to be called the 'old man's friend' when I trained for reasons outside the scope of this discussion) would never have been tested for flu pre-WuFlu hysterics, so the number is likely to be higher. But I'm quoting verified scientific sources.

  3. #543
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    UK Approves Covid Vaccine

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-uk...eek/a-55792680

    "The UK will be the first country in the West to offer a COVID-19 vaccine to the public after a regulator approved the medicine in record time."

    An interesting choice of words.

    "British media have reported that hospitals in England have been told to get ready to start doing vaccinations for medical workers as early as next week.

    Pfizer said it would immediately begin shipping limited supplies to the UK and has been gearing up for even wider distribution if given a similar nod by the US Food and Drug Administration, a decision expected as early as next week. But doses everywhere are scarce, and initial supplies will be rationed until more is manufactured in the first several months of next year."

    So when might we likely start to notice the effectiveness of the vaccine ? Northern hemisphere Winter 2021 ?

  4. #544
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking01 View Post
    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-uk...eek/a-55792680

    "The UK will be the first country in the West to offer a COVID-19 vaccine to the public after a regulator approved the medicine in record time."

    So when might we likely start to notice the effectiveness of the vaccine ? Northern hemisphere Winter 2021 ?
    Methinks it's going to be extraordinarily difficult to separate out any benefit from the vaccine(s) in a very small % of the global population, from the effects of burgeoning herd immunity from an increasing casedemic, and from the effects of waning pathogenicity of the XiVirus (both of the latter are already in action).

    I think we can be quite sure that the politicians and the vax manufacturers will of course claim total credit for any measured improvements in immunity and morbidity / mortality.

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