You are correct on a couple of points, the numbers of republican and democrat voters remains fairly constant, and the largest variation is when Obama was elected
The voter turnout appears to have been steadily increasing over the past few election cycles, although slightly decreased in 2024 against that trend.
The statistics would suggest that 2020 was in fact a fairly typical election cycle based on previous trends, with the most significant anomalies being with the two elections that Trump won.
In 2020, the most notable variation is the % of votes for other candidates, likely due to the number of traditional democrat voters who would never vote republican but refused to vote for Hilary, and notwithstanding that the democrats still won the popular vote.
in 2024, the reduced increase in number of eligible voters and corresponding decrease in democrat votes are inconsistent with the previous trends, which leads some credence to the reporting of efforts to disqualify voters from demographics likely to vote democrat.
Otherwise the variations are in the range of single digit percentages which is entirely believable, and are magnified by the distortions of the electoral college system.

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