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Thread: Death toll on the roads is virtually identical to 2019

  1. #181
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    I understand that it's aspirational, and I have no problems with the desire to preserve human life and eliminate risks that can cause harm. But the sad reality is that the aspirational goals are not backed by outside the box or original thinking in solving the problems. Where is the infrastructure improvement to support the need? Where is the education for drivers? Improved licensing regime for drivers? Reducing speed limits without any other improvement is simply a trade off between deaths and injury. In effect, what this is saying is that policy makers wish to have potentially more people injured rather than die. Harm is harm (it's just that death is more permanent harm).

    I work in Risk Management field and often come across organizations and their goals of zero tolerance for fraud or something along the lines. The problem is there is often no corresponding investment in detection or prevention systems to eliminate such fraud and theft. It's a balancing act tolerance for loss and customer experience vs capital investment needed.

  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by malcy25 View Post
    Half the story is missing. Are miles up, are more riders riding, is the at fault party ratio changing? Yes, 57 is terrible, but so is the reporting.
    A lot more than half the story is missing, at least to interested parties so that a balanced viewpoint can be arrived at. Rastuscat may know what statistics are collected but I certainly don't. For example, in a motorcycle accident, is there any data analysis on the type of motorcycle involved, whether the rider has had recent training, actually holds a licence and a host of other relevant stuff which might be contributing factors. I suppose I'm asking whether there is a comprehensive standard methodology for data gathering rather than just leaving it to an individual investigating officer or other party. It might sound anal but having spent an awful lot of years on engineering condition monitoring, reliable data is the only way of getting to root causes.

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by malcy25 View Post
    Half the story is missing. Are miles up, are more riders riding, is the at fault party ratio changing? Yes, 57 is terrible, but so is the reporting.
    If you think that report was half missing, then you should read the report in Sunday Herald of 24th January 2021 by Luke Kirkness. If you are subscriber it's available beyond the NZHerald's pay-wall: Motorcyclist death toll worst in 25 years..

    If you're not a subscriber, let me quote some passages from the report where two experts are questioned - one is Josh Kronfeld, former All Black, and the other is John Cameron, Harley Owners Group Auckland chapter president.

    Quote Josh Kronfeld:
    Harley-Davidson fanatic and former All Black Josh Kronfeld says motorcyclists are always on alert for danger, with other road users often putting them at risk.
    "Motorcyclists are so constantly having to be in that awareness that someone is going to do something wrong in a car. That's every time you go to ride. "Unfortunately there's a lot of hazards that come with [motorcycling]. We as riders all know that and it's just part of the game."

    When Josh was confronted with this from NZTA: "The NZTA data, provided by the crash analysis system (CAS), found the rider was likely to have primary responsibility in 73 per cent of the deadly motorcycle crashes between 2015 and 2019. The comparable figure for minor injury crashes was 55 per cent and 39 per cent for multiple vehicle crashes."

    Josh response: "Kronfeld wasn't sure what to make of the CAS figures and wondered if they factored in other issues such as the possibility of a pothole or shingle on the road, wandering livestock or even a dip hidden in the road's camber."

    Josh went on to say: "They're factors that you assume the police put into it but how can you tell if they're 100 metres off the road off the bike?".

    "It's only happened because of that initial issue and they've tried to save themselves."


    Josh's explanation for the crashes: "One of the leading causes of crashes was as simple as other drivers not seeing them on the road."

    He continued: "Every time I go for a ride there's an incident where someone pulls out from another lane, hasn't seen you, and you're not doing anything ridiculous." and he added "People just haven't seen you when they look in their side mirror or they haven't looked over their shoulder to check their blind spot. That's such an easy moment to wipe you out."

    John Cameron's solution is simple...
    John Cameron said it was often the obnoxiously loud motorcycles that kept riders safe.
    "Loud bikes save lives because if you hear us at least you can be aware something is out there. People complain the bikes are too noisy but I'd much rather you hear me coming because you're not looking at me."


    And Cameron's main complaint: Cameron said people using their phones behind the wheel was his biggest worry.

    and we, motorcyclists are getting the blame: He [Cameron] was not surprised to see motorcyclists blamed for crashes but thought the CAS numbers were not all they were chalked up to be.

    A little bit of insight from Cameron "Motorcyclists are by no means impeccable on the road, and we also have to up our game by riding smarter."

    The last part:
    Kronfeld said: "Most of the media accidents reported are of someone doing something dumb.

    "Someone travelling the country does a three-point turn on a corner [in front of you] or something - you're not expecting that. They're the ones that get highlighted."

    Cameron wants to see the New Zealand driving test have a section added to involve motorcycles, in a bid to better educate people.

    Meanwhile, Kronfeld urged road users - motorcyclists and other vehicle drivers alike - to be more alert when travelling.

    "I think for everyone to be safe it's important to be constantly looking for a hazard, it doesn't matter if you're on a bike, in a car, on a pushbike or skateboard," he said.

    "When you're out on the road, you [should be] looking for something to go wrong."

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackbird View Post
    A lot more than half the story is missing, at least to interested parties so that a balanced viewpoint can be arrived at. Rastuscat may know what statistics are collected but I certainly don't. For example, in a motorcycle accident, is there any data analysis on the type of motorcycle involved, whether the rider has had recent training, actually holds a licence and a host of other relevant stuff which might be contributing factors. I suppose I'm asking whether there is a comprehensive standard methodology for data gathering rather than just leaving it to an individual investigating officer or other party. It might sound anal but having spent an awful lot of years on engineering condition monitoring, reliable data is the only way of getting to root causes.
    IIRC the instructor on my last Ride Forever day rattled off figures about the percentage of riders without training having accidents as opposed to those who have taken advantage of further training. Different types of riders, bike styles and age were also highlighted.

    Summit else that I took away from the courses was the instructors opinion that those who would benefit the most from further training feel they need it the least.

    All the instructors I've spent time with mention this.

    I think the relevant info is there but how to reach the riders most at risk is proving tough to achieve with voluntary training.
    Manopausal.

  5. #185
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    The scheme that they're trying out where they lower the rego costs for those who have attended a ride forever course is a good start. If they don't see the value in training, then maybe a few extra dollars in their back pocket might motivate a few to attend.

    As much as I've enjoyed and learned from the Ride Forever courses that I've been on, I can't help but think that statistic is a bit skewed though - it could be argued that those who seek out extra training and upskilling are already more naturally inclined to taking responsibility and riding safely and defensively, compared with some of those that don't. (Which is basically what that Ride Forever instructor was saying.)

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  6. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moi View Post
    If you think that report was half missing, then you should read the report in Sunday Herald of 24th January 2021 by Luke Kirkness. If you are subscriber it's available beyond the NZHerald's pay-wall: Motorcyclist death toll worst in 25 years..

    If you're not a subscriber, let me quote some passages from the report where two experts are questioned - one is Josh Kronfeld, former All Black, and the other is John Cameron, Harley Owners Group Auckland chapter president.

    Quote Josh Kronfeld:
    Harley-Davidson fanatic and former All Black Josh Kronfeld says motorcyclists are always on alert for danger, with other road users often putting them at risk.
    "Motorcyclists are so constantly having to be in that awareness that someone is going to do something wrong in a car. That's every time you go to ride. "Unfortunately there's a lot of hazards that come with [motorcycling]. We as riders all know that and it's just part of the game."

    When Josh was confronted with this from NZTA: "The NZTA data, provided by the crash analysis system (CAS), found the rider was likely to have primary responsibility in 73 per cent of the deadly motorcycle crashes between 2015 and 2019. The comparable figure for minor injury crashes was 55 per cent and 39 per cent for multiple vehicle crashes."

    Josh response: "Kronfeld wasn't sure what to make of the CAS figures and wondered if they factored in other issues such as the possibility of a pothole or shingle on the road, wandering livestock or even a dip hidden in the road's camber."

    Josh went on to say: "They're factors that you assume the police put into it but how can you tell if they're 100 metres off the road off the bike?".

    "It's only happened because of that initial issue and they've tried to save themselves."


    Josh's explanation for the crashes: "One of the leading causes of crashes was as simple as other drivers not seeing them on the road."

    He continued: "Every time I go for a ride there's an incident where someone pulls out from another lane, hasn't seen you, and you're not doing anything ridiculous." and he added "People just haven't seen you when they look in their side mirror or they haven't looked over their shoulder to check their blind spot. That's such an easy moment to wipe you out."

    John Cameron's solution is simple...
    John Cameron said it was often the obnoxiously loud motorcycles that kept riders safe.
    "Loud bikes save lives because if you hear us at least you can be aware something is out there. People complain the bikes are too noisy but I'd much rather you hear me coming because you're not looking at me."


    And Cameron's main complaint: Cameron said people using their phones behind the wheel was his biggest worry.

    and we, motorcyclists are getting the blame: He [Cameron] was not surprised to see motorcyclists blamed for crashes but thought the CAS numbers were not all they were chalked up to be.

    A little bit of insight from Cameron "Motorcyclists are by no means impeccable on the road, and we also have to up our game by riding smarter."

    The last part:
    Kronfeld said: "Most of the media accidents reported are of someone doing something dumb.

    "Someone travelling the country does a three-point turn on a corner [in front of you] or something - you're not expecting that. They're the ones that get highlighted."

    Cameron wants to see the New Zealand driving test have a section added to involve motorcycles, in a bid to better educate people.

    Meanwhile, Kronfeld urged road users - motorcyclists and other vehicle drivers alike - to be more alert when travelling.

    "I think for everyone to be safe it's important to be constantly looking for a hazard, it doesn't matter if you're on a bike, in a car, on a pushbike or skateboard," he said.

    "When you're out on the road, you [should be] looking for something to go wrong."

    Jezuz, that kinda amounts to a rant from two chaps from the middle aged Harley owners fraction of nz rider, ostensibly blaming other road users for all crashes. Waste of . . . I'm going to say printers ink, but you know what I mean.
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  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by F5 Dave View Post
    Jezuz, that kinda amounts to a rant from two chaps from the middle aged Harley owners fraction of nz rider, ostensibly blaming other road users for all crashes. Waste of . . . I'm going to say printers ink, but you know what I mean.
    Interesting comments from them (and you ... a rant in itself .. ??). But you are correct in saying Harley riders are a fraction of NZ motorcycle riders ... and their comments and experiences are just as valid as yours are to relate. BUT ... You are hardly in a position to say their comments were just a rant ... if you weren't there to see the and experience the same things they did at the same time.

    A few months back I was traveling to my workplace (Stewart Island) ... a commute (by car sadly) done weekly (one week on and one off). I was stopped at a scenic stop, and was taking a short vid with my hand held camera. It can take a video or stills. I caught a row of three cars rounding a corner ALL over the center line. A Motorcycle coming the other way had to go right onto grass on the other side to miss the cars (He was ok as was the bike).

    All the vehicles stopped and when Plod arrived (eventually) ... ALL the CAR drivers swore it was the BIKE on the wrong side THEY had to avoid by crossing the center line.

    I showed the Plod the video I had taken. Then he promptly wrote the tickets for the car drivers. But until he saw the vid I took ... he was certain it was definitely the motorcyclist at fault.

    In my 47 years of motorcycling ... the truth of things I've seen happening on the roads (in NZ) might be thought of as fiction ... if I (or you) weren't there to see it.
    When life throws you a curve ... Lean into it ...

  8. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by release_the_bees View Post
    The scheme that they're trying out where they lower the rego costs for those who have attended a ride forever course is a good start. If they don't see the value in training, then maybe a few extra dollars in their back pocket might motivate a few to attend.

    As much as I've enjoyed and learned from the Ride Forever courses that I've been on, I can't help but think that statistic is a bit skewed though - it could be argued that those who seek out extra training and upskilling are already more naturally inclined to taking responsibility and riding safely and defensively, compared with some of those that don't. (Which is basically what that Ride Forever instructor was saying.)

    Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
    I always thought the figures were skewed too, by that tendency to attract the safety minded rider.

    Now that I work in head office and I can see the rationale behind any figures ACC uses, and contrary to my scepticism, it's clearly credible.

    The first few people who did Ride Forver courses were probably the cloth-cap brigade, focussed on being safe so they could get home safe. In 2013, the target for annual course attendance was 1000.

    It's now 2021, and our annual target is 7500, going up to 10000 next year. So far, over 24000 people have done courses. Some have done more than one, it's over 24000 individuals.

    From this, and using injury analysis (as we get the injury records when people make a medical claim) it is apparent that people who have attended Ride Forever courses are 27% less likely to submit an injury claim than someone who hasn't. This is the figure we have been using, and it has been standardised and independantly audited.

    Standardisation means that we take a selection of 1000 attendees, and look at their lifetime claims data. In this way you can see if they are risk takers, or not. If they fell off their bicycle when young, that be on their record. In this way, it's easy for us to see who the risk takers are. We can also see who the safety conscious are, as they have a significantly reduced claims history.

    So we can actually claim that 27% as being legitimate, as it factors in the risk taking of the people being analysed.

    So, next move is to close off that study group, and start looking at a new subset. So far, we can see that the 27% is actually quite conservative, in terms of injury reduction. Once the analysis is done and peer reviewed, we can start using that figure.

    Of course, optimism bias makes the role more challenging. As a group, we accept that as motorcyclists, there's a risk of injury. Thing is, we never think it's going to be us. And for that reason, we don't see the need for coaching. After all, we have been riding for years with no problems, and what can there possibly be for me to learn, right?

    Trouble is, each day somone gets hurt while riding a motorcycle. And in circumstances, regardless of whose fault the crash was, where the motorcyclists could potentially have done something to prevent it.

    I know, it's always someone elses fault, right? Fault actually doesn't mean much when you are lying in the back of an ambulance with a broken arm, broken leg and ruptured spleen.

    The point of the Cashback Pilot scheme was to see if a financial incentive was enough to attract riders who had not previously engaged with Ride Forever to attend courses. Riders starting out who are progressing through the licence pathway are incentivised to attend Ride Forever courses through reductions in time on graduated licence classes for doing a CBTA assessment, supported by Ride Forveer Bronze and Silver courses.

    So why would a rider who has had a full for years do a Ride Forever course? That's what Cashback is trying to achieve. If it works, likely the conditions will be altered, and the scheme rolled out further. It's a piulot, ending in June this year, it can't be changed before that, or the outcomes will be less valid.

    From my point of view of having been an instructor, I've never had anyone on a course who thought they had learned nothing. Even teaching people good braking techniques was an eye opener for some. And a plan for smoothe, consistent cornering. Stuff we all think we do well already, it's always possible to get better.

    Let's face it, if we were all as good as we thought we are, we wouldn't have half the injury stats we have.

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moi View Post
    John Cameron said it was often the obnoxiously loud motorcycles that kept riders safe.
    "Loud bikes save lives because if you hear us at least you can be aware something is out there. People complain the bikes are too noisy but I'd much rather you hear me coming because you're not looking at me."
    He's an idiot, they make no difference at all, in a modern vehicle with windows up and radio on you don't hear shit until they are alongside you
    "If you can make black marks on a straight from the time you turn out of a corner until the braking point of the next turn, then you have enough power."


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  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by FJRider View Post
    Interesting comments from them (and you ... a rant in itself .. ??). But you are correct in saying Harley riders are a fraction of NZ motorcycle riders ... and their comments and experiences are just as valid as yours are to relate. BUT ... You are hardly in a position to say their comments were just a rant ... if you weren't there to see the and experience the same things they did at the same time.

    A few months back I was traveling to my workplace (Stewart Island) ... a commute (by car sadly) done weekly (one week on and one off). I was stopped at a scenic stop, and was taking a short vid with my hand held camera. It can take a video or stills. I caught a row of three cars rounding a corner ALL over the center line. A Motorcycle coming the other way had to go right onto grass on the other side to miss the cars (He was ok as was the bike).

    All the vehicles stopped and when Plod arrived (eventually) ... ALL the CAR drivers swore it was the BIKE on the wrong side THEY had to avoid by crossing the center line.

    I showed the Plod the video I had taken. Then he promptly wrote the tickets for the car drivers. But until he saw the vid I took ... he was certain it was definitely the motorcyclist at fault.

    In my 47 years of motorcycling ... the truth of things I've seen happening on the roads (in NZ) might be thought of as fiction ... if I (or you) weren't there to see it.
    Cool story. No really, good work.
    But we just can't give the Mike to individuals and ask their opinions for a balanced piece of journalism unless they have some actual data that has been critically analyzed.

    That's like asking the opinion, or listening to, the opinion of a Rockstar or Actor, or social influencer on the subject of politics or heaven help us, vaccination. You'll get a strong opinion but not an informed one.

    We could run all our social policy past that Israel Whatshisface dude for comment and biblical adherence.
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  11. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackbird View Post
    A lot more than half the story is missing, at least to interested parties so that a balanced viewpoint can be arrived at. Rastuscat may know what statistics are collected but I certainly don't. For example, in a motorcycle accident, is there any data analysis on the type of motorcycle involved, whether the rider has had recent training, actually holds a licence and a host of other relevant stuff which might be contributing factors. I suppose I'm asking whether there is a comprehensive standard methodology for data gathering rather than just leaving it to an individual investigating officer or other party. It might sound anal but having spent an awful lot of years on engineering condition monitoring, reliable data is the only way of getting to root causes.
    Agreed, if you're not actually collecting the data how can you analyse?

    If it's so awful, then publish those 57 (individuals removed obviously). Then you can say, 35, single vehicle loss of control, 20 intersections where the other driver messed up, etc etc, and so on. No point moaning when you don't know how it actually occurred.
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  12. #192
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    Thank you everyone for such a civil and constructive discussion on KB so far.




    PS: I may have just jinxed it.

  13. #193
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    Without getting too hung up on stats, the fatality numbers for the past year are no surprise. Bike sales are up, more kiwis holidaying in NZ, in that sense the number of fatalities could be expected to have been higher still.

    As RC already said, taking a corner correctly and knowing how to perform an emergency stop, just those two skills save lives. The attitude adjustment to lower the risk tolerance of an R4E participant can take a bit longer.

    Very few participants at R4E are willing to believe the single vehicle crash stats for motorcycles, yet it's publicly available data. I suppose it's hard for riders to accept the biggest cause of motorcycle accidents is actually the (lack of) skill and (poor) attitude of the rider.

    It's really that simple

  14. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by F5 Dave View Post
    Cool story. No really, good work.
    But we just can't give the Mike to individuals and ask their opinions for a balanced piece of journalism unless they have some actual data that has been critically analyzed.

    That's like asking the opinion, or listening to, the opinion of a Rockstar or Actor, or social influencer on the subject of politics or heaven help us, vaccination. You'll get a strong opinion but not an informed one.

    We could run all our social policy past that Israel Whatshisface dude for comment and biblical adherence.
    What fucking world do YOU live in. No one in reality wants to listen to what YOU think. Somebody liked and famous (obviously not you) maybe.

    The funny thing is ... That Israel Whatshisface has more influence in social influencing ... than you ever will. Get over yourself.

    You get strong opinions here on KB ... informed ... sometimes (often BADLY informed) ... but you believe what you like. Truth and believable are often cell mates. What you choose to believe is your issue.

    My story was about three persons attempting to pervert the course of justice.

    YOUR story is about a person that is well known to the general public, and can influence people a lot more than you or I ... and you don't like it because he's famous and ... what else was it again .. ??


    For what it's worth ... in MY opinion ... if the influence is in the right direction ... for the right reasons ... What's the down-side ... ??
    When life throws you a curve ... Lean into it ...

  15. #195
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    Who put garlic in your cornflakes?

    My point, and to be fair, that is what I was talking about, is the journalist choosing to use two 'experts' who dont appear to be experts. That was the point. My ego doesn't come into it.
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