The Ukraine Invasion.

[husaberg]

Who knows how this plays out from here...

Its unlikely to be you now is it given your predictions that Russia would not invade Ukraine....

.
Russia won’t invade anyway.

Russia is number one supplier of potash, supplies 50% of world urea production and in conjunction with Ukraine accounts for 50% of world grain production. Without Russian gas Germany is about to get real cold.
Then there are the industrial implications of processes and equipment shut down that can’t be restarted economically.
Russia will still have trade with China, India Iran etc who all don’t teally give a damn about our concerns.

its pretty telling you want to focus on the financial implications rather then the millions of innocent people displaced and the hundreds of thousands that will be killed.....

[pete376403]

It did not end well for the last dictator who annexed territory (Sudetenland) in Europe. Wonder why putin thinks it will be different for him - especially as the opposition is starting out a lot more cohesive than in 1938

[nerrrd]

The Ukrainians aren't going to stop at his 'borders' if they can keep up their momentum, but at least (so far) they seem to be getting a pass in Putin's mind from being part of 'the West' despite all the support they're getting from us.

That might be an indication that he really does understand what's at stake if he takes the nuclear option, and is in fact bluffing about not bluffing. Throwing large numbers of bodies into a fight to give themselves time to consolidate militarily has worked for Russia in the past...

It's hard to see him stomaching a humiliating defeat without lashing out somewhere, though, hmmm, maybe on some vital infrastructure somewhere?

Perhaps he thinks that if he can just hold on long enough, the West will run out of stuff just like they have.

[TheDemonLord]

Wonder why putin thinks it will be different for him - especially as the opposition is starting out a lot more cohesive than in 1938

Two reasons spring to mind:

1: He has Nukes*
2: Europe Energy Dependence

I seem to recall someone warning the EU about being Energy dependent on Russia, I also seem to recall the EU laughing at them.

In the words of Mr Farage: "Well, you're not laughing now". Realistically, if Europe is to reverse it's energy decisions, it will take at least 5-10 years to build the required Nuclear power plants. That is something that severely limits the European response to Putin and he knows it. The 'Maintenance' and 'Sabotage' on Nordstream are merely warning shots across the bow to Europe atm.

Also, from a historical perspective, I don't think it's fair to say that the starting opposition is more cohesive than 1938 Poland and France - recently I've been doing a bit of reading about the Poles in WW2 - which has some of the best stories about absolute Mad-Bastards being absolutely Mad. Whether it's Wotjek the Artillery Bear or the ORP Piorun engaging in (for Naval vessels) a Knife Fight with the Bismark - we really do the Polish a disservice in the West. So although Blitzkrieg and the German strategy of Combined arms was super effective, I don't think you can't say the France and Poland weren't cohesive - they were simply outplayed.

Anyways - back to point one, the big one, the Nuclear one. Before I talk on this - I suggest this video:



LP is very Meme-y, which may not be to everyones taste, but there is a lot of good info in there. In particular though, I want to focus on something that this war is showing as a pattern - Russian Corruption in the Military has shown that what is on Paper is a fraction of what actually exists and that what is left, is not anywhere near as operationally effective as we have been lead to believe.

When it comes to the subject of Nukes, There is a strong argument to be made that these would be subject to greater oversight and that as a strategic deterrent weapon, greater emphasis would be placed on making sure they are in good working order.

The problem is that the same could have been said for the Flagship of an entire fleet - and yet that was sent to war effectively crippled with half it's point-defence weapons inoperable and major issues with it's Electronic suite.

So, I'm not super convinced that there isn't a reason to presume that Russia's Nuclear arsenal won't be subject to the same issues that seem to affect the rest of the Russian Military.

The other factor is the story about the Columbian Drug kingpin who tried to buy a Russian sub who was asked if he wanted it 'With Missiles or without' - I'm not sure how much weight I put into the word of such a Drug Dealer - but it does paint a picture consistent with the other stories...

That if a General wants a new Dacha, then everything is for sale for the right price.

Of course - this is all an Academic exercise - because ultimately, one would have to ask the infamous question posed by Harry Callahan:

"you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?"

[pete376403]

No question about the Poles in WWII, their airmen once they got into the RAF were superb, and their bravery without question (cavalry charges against tanks) even if in that case it was completely futile. But in the late 30s - Britain was prepared to sacrifice any number of other countries ("peace in our time"), the French Maginot line only went as far as the Belgian border (How dare the Huns go around!), USA was doing everything it could to stay away, etc. - in that respect NATO is a lot more cohesive and ready to act.

[husaberg]

No question about the Poles in WWII, their airmen once they got into the RAF were superb, and their bravery without question (cavalry charges against tanks) even if in that case it was completely futile. But in the late 30s - Britain was prepared to sacrifice any number of other countries ("peace in our time"), the French Maginot line only went as far as the Belgian border (How dare the Huns go around!), USA was doing everything it could to stay away, etc. - in that respect NATO is a lot more cohesive and ready to act.

Most forget the poles were invaded from both sides y the Soviets and Germany.
Later on the Fins were kicking Russian ass despite being outnumber by over 2/1 until the Germans had to bail them out.
They inflicted casualties of 6-7 times higher then their own on the Russians.
This was said to be due to the fact that Stalin had purged the Russian army of its officers and he saw them as a potential threat.

[pritch]

Was wondering if the recent successes by Ukraine might have caused them to consider an attempt to regain Crimea. Currently there are reports of a blast and a fire on the only bridge linking Crimea to Russia.

[husaberg]

Was wondering if the recent successes by Ukraine might have caused them to consider an attempt to regain Crimea. Currently there are reports of a blast and a fire on the only bridge linking Crimea to Russia.

It looks like they found a way to target the railine only looks like they may have did it with an explosive on the train itself?
its important that the road link stays intake so the civilians/Russian conscripts can retreat.
it looks like one section of the roadway blew out. which is odd as its the outside section? furthest from the railway?


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-...says/101515576
https://news.sky.com/video/key-bridg...osion-12715171

Edit looking at other videos it might have been a bomb under the bridge? explains how the section fell out they might hab=ve timed it to coincide with the fuel laden train?

I don't think its co-incidental this happen on vald's the neighbours birthday.

[R650R]

Good old Poland takes one for the team again to get ww4 kicked off.

The irony of the world falling over themselves for Poland when not too long ago it was almost as much a pariah state as Russia due to its deeply right wing Christian president trampling on woman’s rights and the abortion debate etc

This clip of Jacinda is interesting, she actually looks deeply troubled by this. Has she had a phone call from the real rulers about what’s about to go down. Are the western elite still going to use this incident for a short sharp nuke knockout on russia.
A limited world war or tactical nuke exchange could really put the kybosh on the whole green agenda, solar won’t be too great in that nuclear winter....
Poland itself is only talking article 4 which means let’s talk about this, nothing more....
Could covid lockdowns been a practice runs forctraining society to stay indoors during radiation events. (Modern nuked produce much less fallout unless ground burst, couple weeks wind and rain and shesxfairly fine to come outdoors with a dust mask.)

Anyhow interesting times we live in....

[husaberg]

Good old Poland takes one for the team again to get ww4 kicked off.

The irony of the world falling over themselves for Poland when not too long ago it was almost as much a pariah state as Russia due to its deeply right wing Christian president trampling on woman’s rights and the abortion debate etc

tell us more

Russia won’t invade anyway. There troops on border are like patched gang members sitting in a car in street while the prospects go do dirty work and collect debts.

[R650R]

Oh dear the truth has come out fast here making mockery of media fear mongering. Even Biden could see it was likely not Russian attack and received rare compliment frommputin.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/3...russian-attack

[husaberg]

Oh dear the truth has come out fast here making mockery of media fear mongering. Even Biden could see it was likely not Russian attack and received rare compliment frommputin.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/3...russian-attack

Engerish please......you are posting in russian spambot
Bidens has said exactly what Nato has said.

[Berries]

Could covid lockdowns been a practice runs forctraining society to stay indoors during radiation events.

No.



Put the pills away.

[pete376403]

Still russias fault by proxy - if they hadn't been sending all the missiles at ukraine, then ukraine wouldnt have been trying to shoot them down. Unfortunate, but pretty low casualty count as collateral damages go. But this may still backfire against russia, if the west sends them more and better anti-missile systems.

[pzkpfw]

Still russias fault by proxy - if they hadn't been sending all the missiles at ukraine, then ukraine wouldnt have been trying to shoot them down. Unfortunate, but pretty low casualty count as collateral damages go. But this may still backfire against russia, if the west sends them more and better anti-missile systems.

Especially: the Russian missile targets right now are civilian infrastructure (gas, power, water, ...).