it's an interesting prospect. I still think you're being overly optimistic about the time frame, based on Elon's track record.
Perfecting the technology is only the first step, though. There's scaling production, sorting out government regulation, figuring out sustainable business models for any new services created etc etc. Meanwhile NZ is financially and logistically at the end of a long queue for any of that. Self driving cars (that look like traditional cars) I think will remain a niche product for those who can afford them.
Public and freight transport seem to me the most likely places where driverless vehicles will appear in any great numbers here. They'll be ugly, utilitarian and most likely Chinese. There will be a lot of opposition to their introduction from the workforces being made redundant by them, and it won't take much effort to disrupt a service using driverless vehicles - just stand in front of one and it'll stop (hopefully), or throw some paint over it to disable the cameras. They'll be similarly vulnerable to random vandalism and theft.
That's possibly me being overly pessimistic. It did take fifty years or so to go from horse to car though.
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Originally Posted by nerrrd
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