Statistics and other lies

**What?** · 11th June 2003, 10:07

I had a look through the LTSA road toll stat's last night, and it seems the toll is rising again. Now while this is sad, it is also interesting, because not so long ago the pleece farce were telling us (on national TV, no less) that the introduction of speed cameras, highway patrols and contact quota have all directly contributed to a reduction in the road toll, and they have got the statistics to prove it.

So this year there are more of all the above, but the toll is going up. The statistics therefore must prove, using the coppers own logic, that the increased speed policing has led directly to an increase in the road toll. Either that, or it is time for them to admit that it's all been a big revenue raising exercise, and they couldn't care less about deaths - which is believable when you consider that they are doing NOTHING proactively about the murder rate in NZ.

**bluninja** · 11th June 2003, 12:04

You didn't believe the first statistics did you?

Remember they were only talking about road deaths; during the period they spoke of the number of serious injuries rose even though deaths went down. One could hypothesise that the road death toll reduction was due to better emergency services response, paramedic care and trauma units. ie the accident rates were not changed.

And statistically speaking the figures were insignificant anyway, in statistical terms nothing could be proven from the figures the police had. All they could say is this is the total number of road deaths, this number is lower than these other numbers we recorded. No trend or link to a causal acttivity cold be demonstrated.

TTFN

**wkid_one** · 12th June 2003, 15:51

Feck - with statistics you can prove that the colour red is in fact black if you really wanted.

Statistics are usually produced with a reason in mind......taking our roll toll as a percentage of driver hours would be a stat I would love to see......yet no one produces it?

Recently our label as the country with the worst 'youth suicide' was pulled apart by overseas statisticians as ludacris....nice really.

Statistics are only effective as getting people to act on something and 94.5% are made up on the spot.

**SPman** · 12th June 2003, 18:37

In a recent self-survey, 61% of me was astounded by the sensationalism of the TV press, 30% was merely irked, and 9% had no opinion.

In contrast, in 1990 only 49% of me was astounded by unfair reporting, with 7% of me being bummed by it, and 44% not really giving a crap.

Findings:

1. Levels of cynicism increase with maturity.

2. 100% of me is sure that 100% of politicians and the news media are 100% full of rancid, smoldering, drippy excrement resembling what might be deposited by a sick dog in a third-world country at the height of stifling heat spell.

(I'm 87.3% certain that the above is a run-on sentence, though only 11.4% concerned about it)

!

**What?** · 13th June 2003, 06:10

Bugger! (are we still allowed to say that?) - I was half way through a cynical reply to blu's post when the power went off! Now I've been beaten!! Oh, well...

No Blu, I don't believe them. Wkid has hit the nail square on the head - you can prove anything with stat's. You could probably even use stat's to prove that you never gathered them in the first place if you are clever enough with a pocket calculator.

An interesting point is that the LTSA site, in the same place as the road toll stat's, gives average distances travelled by drivers, and graphically shows the obvious: with modern vehicles on (relatively) good roads, we all travel further afield than we did a few years ago. Add in the fact that there are more people on the roads now than ever, and we can easily see that even if the road toll is climbing slightly, it is in fact decreasing as a proportion of K's travelled. What irks me, and forces me to become cynically mature

is that the police farce choose to ignore this. They don't actually lie, they just speak the truth, part of the truth and some stuff that is not totally the truth.

**bluninja** · 13th June 2003, 12:59

Seems to me what that accident rates are proportional to traffic density therefore if we reduce the number of vehicles or increase the width of roads we could reduce the road toll. Or if we reduce the size of the vehicles on the road (move from cars to bikes) then we can reduce the overall traffic density without the need for expensive roading and therefore reduce the death rate.

SPman what happened to 0.3% was that your statistical error margin?

And before someone points out the flaw .... I'm considering traffic density to be the percentage of total road space occupied by vehicles, not number of vehicles per square km of road. Damn, you have to be specific about what your measuring....unless you're a police czar or a polititian.

TTFN

**What?** · 13th June 2003, 14:38

Struth!!! 0.3% is a slim error margin. Most govt. agencies work on around 300% (don't they?)

Blu - do you reckon the LTSA will provide you with someone to help hold the tape measure? Yo'll need someone to stand in the middle of the motorway holding on to the tape

**bluninja** · 13th June 2003, 14:54

Don't be silly. You'll need an agency to do field studies on the feasibility of measuring roads, the matter will need to be checked out to ensure the measuring is in line with treaty principles, OSH will be asked for guidelines on safely measuring roads, LTSA will advertise the job for tender, a whole series of rolling road closures will be planned and advertised, and a mountain of cones and fleet of trucks with flashing arrows will be despatched to block off the road.......and only then will someone step out in the road to measure

And then they'll realise that they haven't brought a tape measure.

BTW government agencies don't have a margin for error as they never make mistakes

TTFN

**What?** · 13th June 2003, 15:11

Aaaahh.

**wkid_one** · 16th June 2003, 12:40

And you know what - then two days later someone will have the same fucken idea and disrupt traffic again!

**bluninja** · 16th June 2003, 17:13

That would be cos now they've now got a tape measure

TTFN

**Redstar** · 16th June 2003, 21:29

statistics!
It is the case that there are only half the number of bike owners as reported by statistics NZ why? no they dont lie they conduct a census mid winter when half of us derigister the bike for winter (no I) so the question. How many registered vechicles do you have and what type are they answered honestly understates the truth.

one statistic LTSA can't stuff with is that the highest percentage new registration growth last year was Motorcycles.
we grow slowely but surely and shall eventually take over the World!