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Thread: NZ dollar hits US76c. How does this affect you?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by bane View Post
    (Dairy farmers are the classic case - they got a "big" dairy payout a few years back when the $NZ was around $US0.39 - since then the relative payout has actually been higher, but they have pleaded poverty).

    .
    That's one of the problems with most Kiwis. They don't understand how that payout works. You get part of the payout in Dairy Company shares which aren't a tradeable commodity. They are worth nothing unless you quit Dairy farming so you end up with a "virtual fortune" that you can't even use as equity with the bank.
    If a man is alone in the woods and there isn't a woke Hollywood around to call him racist, is he still white?



  2. #47
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    Buy US dollars. As many as you can afford. The NZ dollar will go down at some stage.
    "Standing on your mother's corpse you told me that you'd wait forever." [Bryan Adams: Summer of 69]

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim2 View Post
    That's one of the problems with most Kiwis. They don't understand how that payout works. You get part of the payout in Dairy Company shares which aren't a tradeable commodity. They are worth nothing unless you quit Dairy farming so you end up with a "virtual fortune" that you can't even use as equity with the bank.
    whilst I agree with your sentiment about the use of fair value shares and the "have to quit to realise", the value of the shares is not paid for the money the dairy company earns from selling the farmer's milk.

    Obviously the value of the share is influenced by how good/bad the payout is, and what the assets of the co-op are, but they dont say "we made $5 billion from selling our products, lets pay $4 billion as payout to our farmers, and chuck $1 billion into the value of the shares"... apologies if im wrong...
    ...and I don't wanna die, just want to ride my motorcy...cle (Arlo Guthrie)

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim2 View Post
    Gareth is only saying that because if the dollar falls again it will mean that his overseas bike jaunts will cost him more.
    Gareth Morgan gave away forty five million dollars (IIRC). I don't think he gives the first flying fuck how much his jaunts cost

    Dave
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  5. #50
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    Seriously thinking about a trip to Hawaii for our 30th this Oct....
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  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim2 View Post
    That's one of the problems with most Kiwis. They don't understand how that payout works. You get part of the payout in Dairy Company shares which aren't a tradeable commodity. They are worth nothing unless you quit Dairy farming so you end up with a "virtual fortune" that you can't even use as equity with the bank.
    AFAIK (I work with banks, not farmers) you can borrow a significant proportion (up to 100%?)based on the value of the shares

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by bane View Post
    whilst I agree with your sentiment about the use of fair value shares and the "have to quit to realise", the value of the shares is not paid for the money the dairy company earns from selling the farmer's milk.

    Obviously the value of the share is influenced by how good/bad the payout is, and what the assets of the co-op are, but they dont say "we made $5 billion from selling our products, lets pay $4 billion as payout to our farmers, and chuck $1 billion into the value of the shares"... apologies if im wrong...
    They payouts are set 18 months earlier on projected earnings on the then current value of the commodity. Any positive difference is paid for in shares. Any negative moves in the value reduce the sum of money paid out. A reported payout is NOT what the farmer sees in their hand.

    They DO say we made $5 billion, lets pay out $4 because of the current price. It's the same crap that we get with the price of petrol. Bought months ahead but the price can go up on today's commodity value of a barrel of oil.
    If a man is alone in the woods and there isn't a woke Hollywood around to call him racist, is he still white?



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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    AFAIK (I work with banks, not farmers) you can borrow a significant proportion (up to 100%?)based on the value of the shares
    You might want to have a chat to the BNZ about that. They certainly don't and haven't for a good decade.
    If a man is alone in the woods and there isn't a woke Hollywood around to call him racist, is he still white?



  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    AFAIK (I work with banks, not farmers) you can borrow a significant proportion (up to 100%?)based on the value of the shares
    correct!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    Given the short comings of my riding style, it doesn't matter what I'm riding till I've got my shit in one sock.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by cowpoos View Post
    correct!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Not the BNZ mate. It's why the in-laws had to bail on Dairying after being with versions of that Bank for more than 50 years.
    If a man is alone in the woods and there isn't a woke Hollywood around to call him racist, is he still white?



  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim2 View Post
    They payouts are set 18 months earlier on projected earnings on the then current value of the commodity. Any positive difference is paid for in shares. Any negative moves in the value reduce the sum of money paid out.

    but... 6 months out from the beginning of this last season, Fonterra predicted it was going to pay $3.85. By the start of last season, it had risen to $4.05. Three months in, this was raised to $4.15. Now the payout will be $4.35. This is directly because Fonterra made more money from the product they sold... it was not "locked in" 18 months ago. Neither was the extra value "just transferred" to the fair share value.

    Obviously it can go the otherway, although much shit would hit fan...
    ...and I don't wanna die, just want to ride my motorcy...cle (Arlo Guthrie)

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim2 View Post
    Not the BNZ mate. It's why the in-laws had to bail on Dairying after being with versions of that Bank for more than 50 years.
    yes they do...I don't think you know the full story...we should leave this at that!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    Given the short comings of my riding style, it doesn't matter what I'm riding till I've got my shit in one sock.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by bane View Post
    yep those dairy farmers are hurting - highest payout ever coming, and its real money with the $NZ worth something!
    Yep Poo's got out of farming at the wrong time. Income up, expences down (most stuff is import related). Should have stuck it out. Could of bought Finns Repsol. And still got to go and pick out that Asian bride personally.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by bane View Post
    but... 6 months out from the beginning of this last season, Fonterra predicted it was going to pay $3.85. By the start of last season, it had risen to $4.05. Three months in, this was raised to $4.15. Now the payout will be $4.35. This is directly because Fonterra made more money from the product they sold... it was not "locked in" 18 months ago. Neither was the extra value "just transferred" to the fair share value.

    Obviously it can go the otherway, although much shit would hit fan...

    the hedging policy is 15mnths with fonterra not 18mnths

    what you have said is true to a point...the increase in payout has been because a number of factors...first would be the amount of currency contracts that fonterra aquired as a result of high curency at times and realeasing them at times when the exchange rate was lower than the rate fixed on the contracts...also the higher commidity prices have totally helped alot also...auz had another low production year in the dairy sector because of droughts and it results in less product on the world markets...and a demand supply senario is created...drives prices up to a point...

    The share value is based on the value on the company...not the value of its products when they are up or down...so with a payout going up...doesn't neccesarly equate to the value of a company going up...fontera have been very very smart purchasing offshore assets of the last 4 or so years...and the company is doing a very good job at stratigically setting itself up for the future...not just for the now like alot of companies that are now setting their selves up for high value products of today....when the dollar drops again...to levels around 50-55c fonterra's volume of basic milk commdities will bring absaloutly shitloads of money into this country!! farmers will see the likes of income they've been dreaming of...especially once the chineese market opens up fully...china will consume sooo much dairy produce in the future...the world won't beable to keep up!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    Given the short comings of my riding style, it doesn't matter what I'm riding till I've got my shit in one sock.

  15. #60
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    I look at it this way

    High Dollar - short term bonus, longterm decline in living standards
    Low Dollar - sucks for some, longterm rise in living standards

    But hey, at least tv's are cheap.

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