New Zealand in midst of baby boom

[Grub]

12:43pm http://www.stuff.co.nz/4168370a10.html

New Zealand is experiencing a baby boom, with the current birth rate the highest in 35 years.

And this is surprising because???? The lack of knowledge, care and intelligence of the media beggars belief. It also seems to have escaped the notice of the government's 'policy analysts' {insert pet-hate here}

There was a post-war baby boom. Since then all the statiticians, politicians and commentators have been telling us that when the post-war baby boomers get old, there will only be one young person in work to take care of and/or support those needing care. "Save for your retirement" they shout, "the gumment won't be collecting enough taxes to help you out."

They seem to have missed the bit where people have babies. So the post-war lot had kids 1945-1955 (1.125 kid per parent). Goodness ... what a surprise ... 25-35yrs later those kids are having kids. Oh my stars! ... 25-35yrs later again, those kids are having kids!!! And everyone is expressing wonderment at this turn of events?

So .... tell us again ... how exactly is this 2 oldies to every 1 earner going to happen? Perhaps an expensively educated sociologist or statitician might like to help us out here. Oh, no, that's right, they're all too busy 'studying'.

[vifferman]

I didn't do it!

[Grub]

I didn't do it!

Lol ... I did - twice

[MSTRS:Me]

I didn't do it!

Not for the lack of trying tho, huh?
Actually, Grub, There could be a problem as predicted...who is having all those babies? The unemployed and solo mothers - gets them a bigger benefit eh!!!

[riffer]

I guess with four of the little buggers I'm not helping the statistics am I?

[ManDownUnder]

Hell I just enjoy the practice...

[Skyryder]

I'd like to know what the stats are for solo mothers applying for the DPB. Up or down. And I'm not talking about the missionary position. Anyone know??

Skyryder

[MisterD]

So .... tell us again ... how exactly is this 2 oldies to every 1 earner going to happen? Perhaps an expensively educated sociologist or statitician might like to help us out here. Oh, no, that's right, they're all too busy 'studying'.

a) I know a lot of Kiwis of my generation that are from 3 and 4 kid families, there's no way we're going to have more than 2.

b) The average age that people are having kids (especially wage earners and tax payers) is getting older.

Do the maths

[Street Gerbil]

Sorry, not my fault.

[Usarka]

Baby boom?

[xwhatsit]

The lack of knowledge, care and intelligence of the media beggars belief.

Could say the same about you.

If you RTFA, you'd notice something. They're talking about the number of births in a year. We had almost as many births last year (ended June) that we had in 1972. However how big was the population in 1972?

If you read a bit further down, they say that the birth rate is 2.1-odd per woman, and has been around this level for 20 years. In 1972 that was 3 per woman.

So no, the ratio of young people to old people is not suddenly going to dramatically improve. We will still face the same old-people money crisis that Japan is now facing already.

[Winston001]

a) I know a lot of Kiwis of my generation that are from 3 and 4 kid families, there's no way we're going to have more than 2.

b) The average age that people are having kids (especially wage earners and tax payers) is getting older.

Do the maths

Exactly. In fact birth rates in most Western countries are static or slightly positive.

Unfortunately it is the third world where populations are still growing and the future doesn't look good for them.

Just look around at the size of families today. One and two child is the norm.

[judecatmad]

a) I know a lot of Kiwis of my generation that are from 3 and 4 kid families, there's no way we're going to have more than 2.

I'm an only child and Dave's one of 2 so we're not even replacing our share of the population by having this one (and one is definitely all we're having - not doing this shitty 9 months again!!! Also don't think we could cope financially with more than one).

I am noticing that everyone around me seems to be having boys at the moment. 3 of us at work are pregnant with boys and 3 friends have had boys this year. Seems odd given that the stats also say there's a man-drought....maybe nature is biting back!

[imdying]

The statistics department monitors this stuff quite closely I think you'll find Grub... at the moment, they're pretty concerned about the fact that our population is about to set into decline, and nobody seems to be listening.

[Usarka]

don't worry even though the majority of kiwis are heading overseas for the obvious reasons, our wonderful immigration minister assures us that they are being replaced by people from other countries. no doubt they will have lots of kids.