You've got a couple of things right, starting with the crankshaft power.
As a rule of thumb I assume a power loss of 2,5% per transmission step (this is not carved in stone; CVT transmissions and bevel gears will properly mess things up).
So 97,5% of the crankshaft power arrives at the gearbox input shaft (if the oil level in the transmission and the oil viscosity are not too high).
97,5% of 97,5% exits at the output shaft (if: see above).
97,5% of 97,5% of 97,5% arrives at the wheel via the chain (if the chain and sprockets are well lubricated and not worn).
97,5% of 97,5% of 97,5% of 97,5% arrives via the tire at the dyno drum (if the tire pressure is not too low).
So the total efficiency from crankshaft to dyno is 0,975^4 = 0,904.
You quote 11,8 HP at the wheel, but I take the liberty of assuming that it was not measured
at the wheel, but on a dyno drum driven
by the wheel. Then the crankshaft power will have been 11,8 / 0,904 = 13,06 HP , so your estimate is realistic and your 11 mm restrictor should be about right.
The restrictor factor of 3,06 that you quoted, stems from an older version of my FOS exhaust concept; you'll find the latest version below. that factor has now grown to 3,1 but that won't make a world of difference; 13,06 crankshaft-HP would now require a Ø 11,2 mm restrictor.
Is that safe on a 50 cc engine?
That depends. The engine has to be thermally sound. A cylinder with a pressed-in liner is not great in this respect, and neither is aircooling. And watercooling is OK only if you have sufficient circulation of not-too-hot water.
You'll also need sufficient blowdown time.area, otherwise hot combustion gases will enter the transfer ducts and heat up the cylinder. So don't rev it too high.
The above thermal requirements apply to tuned engines. 13 crank-HP out of 50 cc should not give big problems, but you must be aware of a possible interaction.
Your power was measured with a Ø 14,75 mm restrictor. If you were to try the 'correct' 11 mm size, power might go up and 11 mm would not be correct any more...
Finally, a smaller restrictor will increase mean pipe pressure. If the blowdown time.area is insufficient, this increased pressure will enhance the problem of exhaust gases entering the transfer ducts.
A smaller restrictor will also increase the exhaust gas temperature, and hence the resonance frequency of the exhaust pipe. If the pipe was too short already, switching from too big a restrictor to a 'correct' restrictor size will cause a loss of power and power band.
That's two-strokes for you: they
seem simple

.

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