Not everyone missed the signs...

[davereid]

I found it almost spooky how accurate Peter Schiff predicted the collapse, all the time being shouted down.

http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2008/11...-of-cassandra/

[Big Dave]

Fascinating.

'The only thing I know is that I know nothing'. Socrates - and Schultz

[rainman]

I found it almost spooky how accurate Peter Schiff predicted the collapse, all the time being shouted down.

http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2008/11...-of-cassandra/

There's a few people who have seen this shit heading our way but they have generally been laughed at for not following the common wisdom of the time. Even I have predicted the housing collapse for the past few years. And Schiff is probably right, or in the immortal words of Tom Waits:

"If you want money in your pocket,
a top hat on your head,
a hot meal on your table,
and a blanket on your bed,
well today's grey skies and tomorrows tears,
you'll have to wait til yesterday is here."

Personally I think more than a little of this problem is related to the recent spike in oil, which led to a squeeze on the consumer who was paying more for food and fuel, and this may have helped trigger the failure of the dodgy mortgage model that we (well, the US, mainly) was trying to pretend could actually work. Globalisation means we all get affected by the problems of the US, UK and others..

Oil is now down because demand has cratered, but if we can reinflate another bubble by throwing enough "money" around it will bounce right back and even exceed the $147 it hit before.

My conclusions:

• Globalisation is a mixed blessing at best, brings "wealth" but at the expense of resilience
• "Free Trade" is just more of the same shit as before
• The modern banking system is a system of complex frauds
• The greenies are right and oil will cause us a world of pain in the near to mid future
• We need to localise our economies and build more local resilience

Bet that's not going to win me any fans, though...

[98tls]

More wisdom from those in the no.If per chance you wake up in the morning go outside and listen (for those in Auckland ive no answer).If you have made bad choices get over it and get on with it.

[Big Dave]

More wisdom from those in the no.If per chance you wake up in the morning go outside and listen (for those in Auckland ive no answer).If you have made bad choices get over it and get on with it.

And If you listen closely you can hear hard working everyday folks life savings evaporating.

[short-circuit]

There's a few people who have seen this **censored** heading our way but they have generally been laughed at for not following the common wisdom of the time. Even I have predicted the housing collapse for the past few years. And Schiff is probably right, or in the immortal words of Tom Waits:


Personally I think more than a little of this problem is related to the recent spike in oil, which led to a squeeze on the consumer who was paying more for food and fuel, and this may have helped trigger the failure of the dodgy mortgage model that we (well, the US, mainly) was trying to pretend could actually work. Globalisation means we all get affected by the problems of the US, UK and others..

Oil is now down because demand has cratered, but if we can reinflate another bubble by throwing enough "money" around it will bounce right back and even exceed the $147 it hit before.

My conclusions:

• Globalisation is a mixed blessing at best, brings "wealth" but at the expense of resilience
• "Free Trade" is just more of the same **censored** as before
• The modern banking system is a system of complex frauds
• The greenies are right and oil will cause us a world of pain in the near to mid future
• We need to localise our economies and build more local resilience

Bet that's not going to win me any fans, though...

Can scarcely believe what I just read - a reasoned and balanced opinion. In here of all places.

[klingon]

And If you listen closely you can hear hard working everyday folks life savings evaporating.

Yeah that's the shame of it. My sister & her husband sold their only asset (a plot of land) because they were trying to have a baby and it turned out they needed IVF (very expensive).

The money that was left over after a single cycle of IVF they put into two different finance companies to diversify their risk. BOTH companies collapsed, taking all their savings with them.

The good news part of this story is that they got pregnant from the one treatment and now I have a lovely little baby nephew! But they cannot afford to have another treatment if they want more kids, and they have completely lost the money they could have used as a deposit on a house. They are really struggling financially.

There are real human beings behind the numbers when companies go under.

[Winston001]

There are real human beings behind the numbers when companies go under.

Amen to that.

[SPman]

A lot of people were predicting the "collapse", but, people only see what they want to see and, if they are in charge, it's just tough shit for the likes of you and me.....

It's hitting a lot of people badly, here in Aus, where they were smugly thinking they'd be OK, the shit is starting to hit the fan, and it's only going to get worse - next year is not going to be pleasant!

An American workers perspective...http://www.truthout.org/112108L

We need to localise our economies and build more local resilience

Eek - sounding like a Greenie - anathema to the "free traders" and global market purveyors, but too true. A stable, reasonably self sufficient economy, is not one that is as easily manipulated by large vested interests.

[LilSel]

There are real human beings behind the numbers when companies go under.

Yep!!... I almost got made redundant recently due to the state of things at the moment!
Today I find out one of my big industrial customers is closing down before xmas thats two big accounts gone this month so far, I wont be able to meet my budgets without them. Certainly tough times out there!! Affects everyone in some way or another, really feel for those getting laid off at this time of the year, esp those with families to support.

[Winston001]

There's a few people who have seen this shit heading our way but they have generally been laughed at for not following the common wisdom of the time. Even I have predicted the housing collapse for the past few years.

Gareth Morgan has been preaching this for 15 years but no-one took any notice. Right through the Asian Crisis 1998, then the dot.com collapse of 2001, I expected Gareth's predictions to come true - as did he - but nadda. The financial system righted itself and carried on.

So while I think we are entering a 1929 type depression, we won't really know for a couple of years - by which time it's entirely possible world economies will be booming again.

Personally I think more than a little of this problem is related to the recent spike in oil, which led to a squeeze on the consumer who was paying more for food and fuel, and this may have helped trigger the failure of the dodgy mortgage model....

Agreed.

Oil is now down because demand has cratered, but if we can reinflate another bubble by throwing enough "money" around it will bounce right back and even exceed the $147 it hit before.

Not exactly. The longterm oil price was predicted (4 months ago) to be around $US70. The reason for the spike was a heavy world demand and restricted supply. That has now eased in both directions. As for OPEC restricting supply, those countries are as attached to oil dollars as a heroin addict and they simply cannot afford to reduce their income.

[Winston001]

My conclusions:

• Globalisation is a mixed blessing at best, brings "wealth" but at the expense of resilience
• "Free Trade" is just more of the same shit as before
• The modern banking system is a system of complex frauds
• The greenies are right and oil will cause us a world of pain in the near to mid future
• We need to localise our economies and build more local resilience

Bet that's not going to win me any fans, though...

Globalisation - when it eventually happens - is the best chance for evening out the prospects for all people. At the moment 80% of the worlds wealth is held by 20% of the global population. A Kenyan farmer cannot sell his cotton in Europe or the USA at his price. He has to pay an import tax to protect American and European farmers. That is a really fair system.

Yes there are banking frauds. Always have been. Look at Barings Bank. Consider the South Seas Bubble, the Tulip Bubble. But for the most part, it still works.

Oil - don't think this is a Green issue, just common-sense. As it gets harder to find, the price goes up, alternative energy becomes viable, substitution occurs. Margarine only exists because of the high price of French butter in the late 19th century.

Local resilience is good - but we have to sell the citizenry on it. Bill Birch and Think Big projects are the last iteration of this type of policy and rightly or wrongly, they failed. The Motonui Liquid Fuels plant is now moth-balled and it was built to give NZ more fuel independence.

[Finn]

What recession? Have you guys seen the mortgage rates drop this week? Shit, I better go buy some more houses. Hell, at this rate I might put that new car and bike on the mortgage as well.

Yippee!!!

[short-circuit]

What recession? Have you guys seen the mortgage rates drop this week? **censored**, I better go buy some more houses. Hell, at this rate I might put that new car and bike on the mortgage as well.

Yippee!!!

What a lemon you are.

[Finn]

What a lemon you are.

Better a lemon than a sour grape.

How's Helen?