Herald article response 23/11/09

[vtec]

Just saw this article in the Herald.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10604235

And I forwarded this response to the author.


Just read your article in the Herald today, and I've got a couple of questions.

You state that motorcyclists are 18 times more likely to be injured or killed than car drivers. But you say that for cars there are 8525 claims out of the approx 2,500,000, which works out at 0.341%, and for motorcyclists, 3173 claims out of the approx 130,000 motorcycles registered... or 2.44%

2.44/0.341 = 7.1 x more likely to have a claim related crash than car drivers. And that's if the stats provided by ACC are accurate). This doesn't take into account the cheaper cost of motorcycle claimants than car claimants.

If you want the other side of the story, you should contact Les Mason from BRONZ (bronznational@gmail.com, bronzauckland@hotmail.com) he's an excellent data analyst, and represents the bikers well. Obviously you could do your own cross checks to see that the data he provides adds up.

P.S. Just wondering if you can inform me of how much motorcyclists that are killed cost ACC? I don't know if they pay out compensation to the family or not. I wouldn't have thought so.

If we keep up our responses and let nothing slide. We will do well, I've got a complaint to the ASA about the ACC advertisement that they have mailed me back to say they are investigating the advert on more than one of their ethics principles, just keep up the pressure guys, you're doing well.

[ready4whatever]

Nice message VTEC. We need to throw it back in their faces. You can tell some of these articles are written by people in favour of cars over bikes. which isnt good because they bend stuff. im not saying bikers should write them, but at least neutral parties

[ready4whatever]

motorcyclists are 18 times more likely to be injured or killed than car drivers

That quote cant be proved with stats alone. we need a practical test. myth busters!!

and what happened to 16 times?

[vtec]

The thing is, unfortunately bikers are the most neutral, because first of all they generally drive a car aswell as their bike.

And me I'm the most neutral of all, I do stacks of k's on bicycles, plenty in my car, and an equal amount on my motorcycle. I race a bike on the track. I would be the most neutral person to write an article for the herald.

I just get angry when I see pathetic attempts to pull the wool over the largely receptive publics eyes.

[bogan]

Les Mason, Auckland branch president of the motorcycling organisation, accepted yesterday that the compensation corporation had a case for raising levies but said the Government was obliged to weigh up wider social benefits offered by efficient two-wheeled transport.

Did Les actually say that? and in this context? Cos if not we can't let that shit slide.

[Mully]

Nice work. I think you're right, we must keep being vigilant.

FWIW, ACC do pay out on dead bikers. There is a "funeral grant" and a "survivor's grant" or some such. Plus ACC pay for ambulances and the like attending the accident.

The dope selling bint/widow of that twit who killed a cop then topped himself got $10K or summat.

[Mully]

Did Les actually say that? and in this context? Cos if not we can't let that shit slide.

It's not a direct quote, so I think they can use "artistic licence" on it.

If it's not the gist of what he said however......

[Ixion]

I think I recall saying the "social responsibility " thing. Don't recall saying the "have a case" bit - and not the sort of phrasing I'd use. But it was a long time ago, and it's not a direct quote.

[mashman]

I just get angry when I see pathetic attempts to pull the wool over the largely receptive publics eyes.

Great response VTEC... With the dataset that are available, the data does indeed point to us having a worse crash record! But why? The numbers don't make sense! To some they does!

MAYBE I had a conversation with a member of the team that generated the statistics that you're talking about. As far as i'm concerned they were not generating statistics, they are managing risk (same diff to some)!

All fine and well intentioned though. But, the calculation method used is one that mystifies me to this day... PROBABILITY. I argued my point with the analyst using CHANCE as my weapon of choice!

It goes something like this. PROBABILITY stumps CHANCE because it takes variables into account, number of wheels, road stability, safety measures in place etc...

Whereas CHANCE, leaves the door open to anything happening at any time.

So you can't calculate the PROBABILITY of CHANCE? No! Why not? It's infinitesimal. Then how can you calculate any probablity, if you can't calculate the one thing that's the biggest factor in doing anything... CHANCE!

To me i hear Tomato Tomato, but to others i hear TOMARTO and RED SQUISHY THING

It's how it's being calculated. You are being perceived, profiled and someone is assigning a cost to you... same as insurance companies do with BMI.

[Azi Dahaka]

and what happened to 16 times?

because day by day we are becoming more dangerious

[bogan]

I think I recall saying the "social responsibility " thing. Don't recall saying the "have a case" bit - and not the sort of phrasing I'd use. But it was a long time ago, and it's not a direct quote.

you're taking it pretty well, if it was me I'd be fucking raging :mad:

[Ixion]

"s the press. They never get it quite right.

[FROSTY]

I'd be interested to trace matters back and see who the idiot was that put the decimal point in the wrong place

[bogan]

That quote cant be proved with stats alone. we need a practical test. myth busters!!

and what happened to 16 times?

perhaps a mythbusters / top gear style viral vid which integrates facts and lols together to explain our point? I just watched the hammond how to top gear guide so I reckon its doable.

JC style voice over with a car and bike traveling side by side down runway etc, "national claims motorcyclists are 16/18 times more likely to get injured than car drivers, lets find out" piano (or something equally heavy) fall from nowhere onto the car, motorcyclist looks over, looks up, big swerve, piano smashes to bits where biker just was. Zoom in on each piano where the figures of crashes per 10,000 vehicles are painted. Myth Busted :2thumbsup

I'm sure we could do a scene for all of nick's myths