View Full Version : What happened to global warming?
Armitage Shanks
30th November 2009, 18:02
It's Fooking Freezing where I am ! :crazy:
Jantar
30th November 2009, 18:05
What happened to it? Absolutely nothing. The planet is still cooling as it has been doing for the last 11 years.
ukusa
30th November 2009, 18:14
It's Fooking Freezing where I am ! :crazy:
Yeah I'm still waiting for it too:wait:
Sidewinder
30th November 2009, 18:19
what happened to SARS, big flu, swing flu and iqrac having weapons of masdistration?
R6_kid
30th November 2009, 18:28
It's not Global Warming, it's Climate Change. And despite what people are trying to tell us I don't think we can do sweet fuck all about it. Don't forget that planet Earth was here for a few billion years before we even came up with a name for it, and it has been constantly recycling itself over that whole time.
Sidewinder
30th November 2009, 18:33
It's not Global Warming, it's Climate Change. And despite what people are trying to tell us I don't think we can do sweet fuck all about it. Don't forget that planet Earth was her for a few billion years before we even came up with a name for it, and it has been constantly recycling itself over the whole period.
owell spray and pray
eelracing
30th November 2009, 18:40
It's not Global Warming, it's Climate Change. And despite what people are trying to tell us I don't think we can do sweet fuck all about it. Don't forget that planet Earth was here for a few billion years before we even came up with a name for it, and it has been constantly recycling itself over that whole time.
Yeah stupid dinosaurs didnt know they had it so good.
Shoulda payed up on their carbon credits.
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BASS-TREBLE
30th November 2009, 19:16
I think this whole attempt to stop 'global warming' is a sign of stupidity
Its just a change in the climate, which could be outside our ideal living temperature.
Maybe it's time for us to go and be replaced by a new, evolved mammal, which is made to live in these conditions.
We're stupid enough to try and stop ourselves extincting
zzzbang
30th November 2009, 20:09
I think this whole attempt to stop 'global warming' is a sign of stupidity
Exactly! everytime you turn on the TV some kind of fool is parading his/her Green Innovation to save the world, what a bunch of morons.
Making kites out of plastic bags is going to save the earth... how? carbon credits will stop global warming.... ok, or it may rape our already shitty economy?
JimO
30th November 2009, 20:21
extincting
is that a real word
crazyhorse
30th November 2009, 20:34
Summer was here yesterday at 33 degrees, but it's raining and my neighbour has their fire going tonight - bloody crazy weather! It'll probably snow at Christmas at this rate! :argh:
huff3r
30th November 2009, 20:37
Summer was here yesterday at 33 degrees, but it's raining and my neighbour has their fire going tonight - bloody crazy weather! It'll probably snow at Christmas at this rate! :argh:
Yes Please!
R6_kid
30th November 2009, 20:40
I think this whole attempt to stop 'global warming' is a sign of stupidity
Its just a change in the climate, which could be outside our ideal living temperature.
Exactly. My thoughts are that the money spent on tackling climate change would be better spent on developing technology which will enable us to live through the period of change - perhaps even comfortably!
BASS-TREBLE
30th November 2009, 20:45
is that a real word
http://www.google.co.nz/search?q=extincting&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
Muppet
1st December 2009, 08:26
It's not Global Warming, it's Climate Change. And despite what people are trying to tell us I don't think we can do sweet fuck all about it. Don't forget that planet Earth was here for a few billion years before we even came up with a name for it, and it has been constantly recycling itself over that whole time.
Totally agree, I read a book called "Not by Fire But by Ice" or similar very interesting. You can't tell me in earth's history that the planet has never heated up or cooled down before, what a load of shit.
Badjelly
1st December 2009, 08:50
You can't tell me in earth's history that the planet has never heated up or cooled down before, what a load of shit.
(I know I shouldn't but...)
Has anyone ever told you that "in earth's history that the planet has never heated up or cooled down before"?
mashman
1st December 2009, 09:02
Exactly. My thoughts are that the money spent on tackling climate change would be better spent on developing technology which will enable us to live through the period of change - perhaps even comfortably!
Unfortunately that probably is where the AGW money is going and that's why it dissapears so quickly... R&D is a fucking expensive business... but we do actually already have the technology to deal with "Climate Change"... it's called fire and cardigans for when it's cold and togs for when it's sunny... anything in between and it wearers choice!
Badjelly
1st December 2009, 13:39
Totally agree, I read a book called "Not by Fire But by Ice" or similar very interesting. You can't tell me in earth's history that the planet has never heated up or cooled down before,....
Has anyone ever told you that "in earth's history that the planet has never heated up or cooled down before"?
:wait::wait::wait:
No I didn't think so. Certainly not IPCC Working Group 1 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_rep ort_the_physical_science_basis.htm), who wrote a 66-page chapter (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter6.pdf) on how the planet has heated up and cooled down before.
..., what a load of shit.
:rolleyes:
spacemonkey
9th December 2009, 08:09
What happened to it? Absolutely nothing. The planet is still cooling as it has been doing for the last 11 years.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/3142117/World-swelters-in-record-heat :Pokey:
Yep getting real fucking cold now. :whistle:
avgas
9th December 2009, 08:41
and it has been constantly recycling itself over that whole time.
Damn spin cycle........never works properly
Badjelly
9th December 2009, 08:43
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/3142117/World-swelters-in-record-heat :Pokey:
Yep getting real fucking cold now. :whistle:
In a post on another thread...
http://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showpost.php?p=1129557531&postcount=70
...I've linked to a page that shows global average temperature vs time for the last 30 years from several different datasets, based on surface or satellite measurements.
In all of them you can see a sharp dip down in late 2007-early 2008 (I think) associated with the La Nina then and you can see the trace climbing up since the El Nino set in earlier this year.
Of course these are short-term fluctuations and no sensible person would base his ideas on climate on the latest wiggle in the time series. (Surely!) What's more important is the slower trend on time scales of a decade or more. This still appears to be going steadily up.
The fact that 2000-2009 will be the warmest decade in the instrumental record is old news, really. It's been pretty obvious that this would be the case for a few years now, even at the bottom of the trough in 2008.
avgas
9th December 2009, 08:47
how? carbon credits will stop global warming.... ok, or it may rape our already shitty economy?
Force people to plant trees.....I think its a bullshit way to go about it. And I am waiting for more specifics about the trading rate - but I am seriously considering it.
Considering kiwifruit is no even worth the shit is produces it could be a good side venture.
Of course when certain people realise that us kiwis can do carbon exchange in NZ and not ship the trading off-shore. Watch them attempt to shut it down.
StoneY
9th December 2009, 08:48
Bah humbug
Lost cause, im more concerened with our shrinking fisheries than what temperature the atmosphere is this month
People should get more concerned about sustainable resources than the temperature, IMO
avgas
9th December 2009, 08:51
..I've linked to a page that shows global average temperature vs time for the last 30 years from several different datasets, based on surface or satellite measurements.
Err that is using the same tactic as the warmist were using.
Recordings of 30 years, for a planet that has done this for 10^6 years......
....as effective as a Colmar-Bruntin Pole about "Most NZer's think John Key could beat Chuck Norris"
Core samples show that this type of thing heats and cools over a 120 year period.......so 30 years of samples is not worth a pinch of shit
avgas
9th December 2009, 08:51
People should get more concerned about sustainable resources than the temperature, IMO
Exactly - could not have said it better myself
Jantar
9th December 2009, 08:55
In a post on another thread...
http://www.kiwibiker.co.nz/forums/showpost.php?p=1129557531&postcount=70
...I've linked to a page that shows global average temperature vs time for the last 30 years from several different datasets, based on surface or satellite measurements.....
I didn't believe in sea level rise either until last time I was at a beach. Over a 5 hour period the water level rose about 1 meter. And for almost all of that 5th hour it stayed at or near its upper level. With such a high rate of rise, I got out of there real quick.
Badjelly
9th December 2009, 10:09
Err that is using the same tactic as the warmist were using. Recordings of 30 years, for a planet that has done this for 10^6 years......
It's not a tactic, it's a series of graphs of data, all documented, all open to examination, I believe. It was in response to posts from Jantar that said the planet had been cooling for the last 11 years. Pot, meet kettle.
If you care to look at some of the many other posts I have done on this site, you will see that I have consistently stated that the climate has varied hugely in the past. How could I not? It's basic background knowledge. I have pointed out that the IPCC has a 66-page chapter in the latest Working Group 1 report on climate variations on the past. This is obviously part of a very clever cover-up: hide the secret information in a document that's so long and technical no-one's going to read it.
For the last couple of million years we have been going through big glacial/interglacial variations, for the last 400,000 odd years on a 100,000 year cycle, previously on a 40,000 year cycle (I think, don't quote me). These cycles have involved huge ice sheets covering northern North America and northern Europe and then withdrawing. The ice locked up in these sheets has lowered sea level by more than 100 m as recently as 15,0000 years ago. Again, basic background knowledge, known to all Earth scientists. Incidentally, the variation in global average temperature between the peak and trough of these cycles was about 5 deg C, which doesn't sound all that much, does it?
There's been a lot of argument about whether the planet is now warmer than it was in the Medieval Warm Period. I don't care. (I think it has, probably. It's an interesting question, but it's not a crucial question.) As I understand it--and I got this from Jim Hansen--the global average temperature is still 0.5 C short of the warmest period in the current interglacial, approx 8000 years ago, and 1 C short of the peak of the previous interglacial, called the Eemian, 120,000 years ago. So here we have a prominent, outspoken global warming "alarmist" telling you it has been warmer in the not-so-distant past than it is now.
So if global warming to date hasn't produced unprecedented temperatures, why are Jim Hansen and I worried? Grab yourself a cup of coffee, I'll try to explain. First, the CO2 level in the atmosphere is unprecedented, higher than it's been for at least 800,000 years, probably several million. This is based on mainly on ice core data. Don't be distracted by Quasi's bullshit about CO2 fluxes being predominantly natural. The natural world kept CO2 between 170 and 280 ppm for a long, long time and since we started burning fossil fuels in big quantities it's been rising steadily and is now at about 380 ppm. We know where that extra CO2 came from (fossil fuel burning, mostly) and we know where it's going (the atmosphere and ocean, some recently to vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere). Second, we know CO2 (and other greenhouse gases: methane, N2O) change the radiative balance of the Earth and we can calculate the size of this effect. Third, from many different lines of evidence we know the sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to changes in radiative forcing. This sensitivity is usually expressed as the the change in equilibrium temperature for a doubling of CO2 and it's about 3 C; could be 2, could be 4, unlikely to be outside this range. So 30 years ago, when all these lines of evidence came together, a few people like Jim Hansen did the sums and said this accumulation of CO2 had to warm the planet eventually and ran some simple models. And now, 30 years later, the model projections turn out to have been right. The planet has warmed, the warming can't be explained by any other mechanism (PDO, Jantar? I'm sceptical), the pattern of warming can't be explained by any other mechanism. (I'll explain that more if anyone wants.)
So the recent warming is probably (very probably?) caused by the rise in greenhouse gases. And if that's true the future warming can be estimated and it might be a big deal. Several degrees. That would be unprecedented over at least the last few million years. We'd be experiencing conditions that occurred during the Miocene. Crocodiles in Alaska. Nothing wrong with the Miocene, I'm sure it was very nice (except for all those bloody crocodiles) but there might be a few transition issues.
But the warming won't happen immediately because of inertia: the thermal inertia of the ocean, which absorbs a lot of the extra heat and warms up slowly; and the economic inertia of humanity who aren't going to stop burning fossil fuels in a big hurry.
Now you may not accept all or any of this, and I'd love to hear your reasons, but please, please don't tell me that the climate has varied naturally in the past so current variations can't be caused by humans.
Badjelly
9th December 2009, 10:34
I didn't believe in sea level rise either until last time I was at a beach. Over a 5 hour period the water level rose about 1 meter. And for almost all of that 5th hour it stayed at or near its upper level. With such a high rate of rise, I got out of there real quick.
You're the one who's extrapolating short-term fluctuations, mate, not me.
Pwalo
9th December 2009, 14:56
Now you may not accept all or any of this, and I'd love to hear your reasons, but please, please don't tell me that the climate has varied naturally in the past so current variations can't be caused by humans.
So it might not be then. Thanks. it's good to see that you're keeping an open mind.
Badjelly
9th December 2009, 15:39
So it might not be then. Thanks. it's good to see that you're keeping an open mind.
Sorry, I don't quite understand what you're saying. So what might not be what then?
As to an open mind, I have biases. I try not to let them blind me to the truth. On the question of whether the moon might be made of green cheese, for example, I have never seen any evidence for this hypothesis, so, pending further evidence, I'm inclined to dismiss it out of hand. On the question of whether the recent warming might be largely unrelated to the recent anthropogenic input of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, I think that definitely has a higher chance of being true than the moon-green cheese hypothesis.
Winston001
9th December 2009, 15:45
If skeptics could understand greenhouse gases as pollution with consequences - we'd get a lot further in these discussions.
Naki Rat
10th December 2009, 08:23
This (http://vodpod.com/watch/2610560-7-30-report-abc-tv-australia-john-clarke-and-bryan-dawe-with-tony-abbott) seems to explain the polititians' approach to the ETS pretty well :rofl::rofl::rofl:
Pixie
10th December 2009, 09:29
Exactly! everytime you turn on the TV some kind of fool is parading his/her Green Innovation to save the world, what a bunch of morons.
Making kites out of plastic bags is going to save the earth... how? carbon credits will stop global warming.... ok, or it may rape our already shitty economy?
What's with the fuckin' drums?
Fuckin' hippies!
Pixie
10th December 2009, 09:31
is that a real word
Extincting: When species go extinct,they die.
Ever smelt a dead body?
spacemonkey
10th December 2009, 09:32
This (http://vodpod.com/watch/2610560-7-30-report-abc-tv-australia-john-clarke-and-bryan-dawe-with-tony-abbott) seems to explain the polititians' approach to the ETS pretty well :rofl::rofl::rofl:
Ahahahahahahahaha!!! :lol:
Nice one.
The Aussies can keep Russel Crowe but can we have John Clarke back?
avgas
10th December 2009, 09:59
If skeptics could understand greenhouse gases as pollution with consequences - we'd get a lot further in these discussions.
Very good point. As someone who is allowed to not be a loony on either side of the fence, I have a simple thing that sums up everything.
Poison = bad
Global Warming = We haven't been here long enough to know
Common Sense > Science > Trending > Marketing > Religion
I find it hilarious that scientists (on both sides) jump up and down over the concept of climate change.....yet no one peeps about the MILLIONS who die every year due to environmental stuff which is preventable.
Pixie
10th December 2009, 17:47
Unfortunately that probably is where the AGW money is going and that's why it dissapears so quickly... R&D is a fucking expensive business... but we do actually already have the technology to deal with "Climate Change"... it's called fire and cardigans for when it's cold and togs for when it's sunny... anything in between and it wearers choice!
We had it in the ice age or we would not be here.
peasea
10th December 2009, 18:20
Very good point. As someone who is allowed to not be a loony on either side of the fence, I have a simple thing that sums up everything.
Poison = bad
Global Warming = We haven't been here long enough to know
Common Sense > Science > Trending > Marketing > Religion
I find it hilarious that scientists (on both sides) jump up and down over the concept of climate change.....yet no one peeps about the MILLIONS who die every year due to environmental stuff which is preventable.
Like motorcycle accidents?
Ooops.
PS: You forgot to mention media beat-ups, politican scaremongering and the IMF.
Winston001
10th December 2009, 19:34
Very good point. As someone who is allowed to not be a loony on either side of the fence, I have a simple thing that sums up everything.
Poison = bad
Global Warming = We haven't been here long enough to know
Common Sense > Science > Trending > Marketing > Religion
I find it hilarious that scientists (on both sides) jump up and down over the concept of climate change.....yet no one peeps about the MILLIONS who die every year due to environmental stuff which is preventable.
The climate change noise has drowned out the basic intent of the international treaties like Kyoto. It's to stop pollution. Somehow this got sidetracked into arguments about whether the climate is changing, and if we can make any difference. Pollution got forgotten.
Skyryder
10th December 2009, 22:11
The climate change noise has drowned out the basic intent of the international treaties like Kyoto. It's to stop pollution. Somehow this got sidetracked into arguments about whether the climate is changing, and if we can make any difference. Pollution got forgotten.
Yep I got past as to the cause. It's the skeptics who push this one. The world needs to wake up to the consequences. And some accuse me of having blinkers on. Just wait until the famines start. The monsoon is getting a bit unreliable.
Skyryder
LBD
11th December 2009, 01:59
It's Fooking Freezing where I am ! :crazy:
Is fookin colder here...went to the golf course last week...after loosing 25 balls on the first hole, give or take,....I have up. Some lucky kid will have a wind fall when the snow melts.
mashman
11th December 2009, 04:48
Yep I got past as to the cause. It's the skeptics who push this one. The world needs to wake up to the consequences. And some accuse me of having blinkers on. Just wait until the famines start. The monsoon is getting a bit unreliable.
Skyryder
waddayamean WHEN the famines start??? I might have seen a few well publicised ones over the last 20 years or so... but who gives a shit, there's no money to be made from a lifeless land...
Skyryder
11th December 2009, 09:36
waddayamean WHEN the famines start??? I might have seen a few well publicised ones over the last 20 years or so... but who gives a shit, there's no money to be made from a lifeless land...
The ones in the last twenty years were localised and are nothing in comparison to what the global famines will be like. The bulk of the worlds population requires the monsoons to be able to provide water for rice production. While there have been inroads in irrigation precipitation is by far the most common source. Delays in the monsoon reduce growing time and this result in loss of volume.
An additional concern is wheat production. The United States is the world's leading wheat exporter. In most years, the United States, Canada, Australia, the EU-27, the former Soviet Union (including three major wheat exporters: Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan), and Argentina account for about 90 percent of world wheat exports. Global warming will have an adverse effect on wheat production and reduce exports of surplus wheat.
Factor in drought and the shit realy hits the fan
If you think that this is pie in the sky stuff just do google on the American Dustbowl and imagine this on a global scale.
Famines affecting a billion people will threaten global food security during the 21st century, according to a leading US scientist.
Nina Fedoroff, the US State Department chief scientist, is convinced that food shortages will be the biggest challenge facing the world as temperatures and population levels rise. Food security in the coming years, she said, is “a huge problem” that has been met with little more than complacency. “We are asleep at the switch,” she said.
Her warning echoes comments by John Beddington, Britain’s chief scientist, last week in which he forecast a “perfect storm” of food, water and energy shortages by 2030.
From
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5962238.ece
Skyryder
spacemonkey
11th December 2009, 09:37
waddayamean WHEN the famines start??? I might have seen a few well publicised ones over the last 20 years or so... but who gives a shit, there's no money to be made from a lifeless land...
You missed the important word "Monsoon" he was referring to India/Asia if the monsoon season has low rainfall there will be a massive shortfall in rice production which is a mainstay of the diet in those areas.
Famine is great for breaking down social cohesion, cue discord violence and possible wars (civil or multinational)..... Total worst case senario of course.
Winston001
11th December 2009, 19:56
waddayamean WHEN the famines start??? I might have seen a few well publicised ones over the last 20 years or so... but who gives a shit, there's no money to be made from a lifeless land...
I do. The idea that adults and children slowly die by the tens of thousands in heat and dust appals me.
As for money - billions are spent by Western countries on famine relief. There is plenty of money from the wealthy nations - but it never catches up.
There are myriad reasons - inefficiencies, bureaucracy, theft, corruption but the main reason is burgeoning populations in the poor countries.
For example - Ethiopia suffered a well-publicised famine in the early 1980s with ship-loads of grain etc being sent in response. The population was 40 million.
Ethiopia is once again in the grip of a terrible famine only this time the population is 80 million. That is no-ones fault - but the human consequences are tragic.
avgas
11th December 2009, 20:13
The climate change noise has drowned out the basic intent of the international treaties like Kyoto. It's to stop pollution. Somehow this got sidetracked into arguments about whether the climate is changing, and if we can make any difference. Pollution got forgotten.
Love this comment. Perfecto.
Shame really - As Kyoto is such a lovely place, when you go there you hope the whole world is like it
ukusa
14th January 2010, 21:43
dredged this up, got the heat pump on tonight, bloody cold summer night.
LBD
14th January 2010, 22:27
At the end of the day, Global warming or Climate change CO2, Methane, Ozone or what ever, We cannot be taking millions of litres and millions of tons of fossel fuels from an inert state in the ground, and burn them, converting them to gasses and particulate matter in the atmosphere without having an affect on the world we live in....
idb
14th January 2010, 23:21
At the end of the day, Global warming or Climate change CO2, Methane, Ozone or what ever, We cannot be taking millions of litres and millions of tons of fossel fuels from an inert state in the ground, and burn them, converting them to gasses and particulate matter in the atmosphere without having an affect on the world we live in....
Everything we do has an effect on our world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
Who's to say that burning the ancient remains of dead fish is any worse than keeping free range chooks?
LBD
14th January 2010, 23:44
Everything we do has an effect on our world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
Who's to say that burning the ancient remains of dead fish is any worse than keeping free range chooks?
I do for one...chooks feed on grain ...part of the carbon cycle above ground. Comparing chooks, with taking relitively inert fossil fuels from below ground and converting them to gasses and particulate matter in the atmosphere is like comparing an egg with a volcano....
Swoop
15th January 2010, 08:27
I suspect that the United Kingdom is thankful for "global warming" and the warmth it delivers...:eek5:
crazyhorse
15th January 2010, 08:30
I'm not complaining - sounds like we are one of the few places who have had a summer. Rain was predicted all week, but we still took some of the highest temps for the country and only had rain on Monday, the rest have been great riding, summer days.
Here's some sun for the rest of you who are lacking in it
:sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny:
one fast tl1ooo
15th January 2010, 08:31
I'm not complaining - sounds like we are one of the few places who have had a summer. Rain was predicted all week, but we still took some of the highest temps for the country and only had rain on Monday, the rest have been great riding, summer days.
Here's some sun for the rest of you who are lacking in it
:sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny:
Yip sunny hb
Jantar
15th January 2010, 09:29
At the end of the day, Global warming or Climate change CO2, Methane, Ozone or what ever, We cannot be taking millions of litres and millions of tons of fossel fuels from an inert state in the ground, and burn them, converting them to gasses and particulate matter in the atmosphere without having an affect on the world we live in....
Having an effect on the world we live in, and causing global climate change is two different things completely.
idb
15th January 2010, 15:51
I do for one...chooks feed on grain ...part of the carbon cycle above ground. Comparing chooks, with taking relitively inert fossil fuels from below ground and converting them to gasses and particulate matter in the atmosphere is like comparing an egg with a volcano....
Don't under-estimate the power of an egg, we all come from eggs and apparently we are shagging the planet!
Winston001
15th January 2010, 16:06
I suspect that the United Kingdom is thankful for "global warming" and the warmth it delivers...:eek5:
Climate change is not uniform over the planet and can lead to some counterintuitive results. For example hotter tropical air and water causes more movement of air masses around the equator. These movements drag cold polar air belts north and south with the result that temperate countries experience unexpected cold. That explains what has happened to the UK.
Here in the South Island we are currently in a polar air stream which should be over the Auckland Islands. This is one of the wettest coldest summers in Central Otago that I can recall.
None of this is proof of global warming but it is interesting that it coincides with climate change predictions.
Jantar
15th January 2010, 16:21
Climate change is not uniform over the planet and can lead to some counterintuitive results. For example hotter tropical air and water causes more movement of air masses around the equator. These movements drag cold polar air belts north and south with the result that temperate countries experience unexpected cold. That explains what has happened to the UK.
Damn, I've got to go back to university and re-learn meteorogoly 101. Have the Hadley cells shut down? If so what is causing the jet stream and why are we still getting westerly winds in the roaring 40s. I see that this whole science has just been turned on its head. I was taught that a hotter equatorial system will increase the tropical lift which will enhance the doldrums and and cause more severe weather (cyclones and hurricanes) in the tropics. AGW will cause heating in the mid to upper atmosphere in the tropics and shut down the drivers to severe weather. it will also cause warming in the lower atmosphere in the polar regions which will also reduce the drivers for severe weather.
Here in the South Island we are currently in a polar air stream which should be over the Auckland Islands. This is one of the wettest coldest summers in Central Otago that I can recall.
None of this is proof of global warming but it is interesting that it coincides with climate change predictions.
No, we are seeing a typical El-Nino pattern with more lows to the south and more highs to the North east, causing a predominant South-west pattern with its fetch being south of Australia, but not polar. It doesn't fit in the slightest with AGW predictions, but does fit nicely with a negative phase PDO, which is a natural cycle.
Winston001
15th January 2010, 18:38
Quite correct Jantar, it is an El Nino pattern but that doesn't mean it isn't connected with global termperature changes which take many many decades.
And incidentally, where did I refer to AGW? Most climate change is driven by natural causes.
What we as humans need to deal with is pollution. The other related issue is overpopulation of the planet.
Jantar
15th January 2010, 18:44
..And incidentally, where did I refer to AGW? Most climate change is driven by natural causes. ....
True, but neither AGW nor natural warming will cause polar air to be drawn up to temperate regions. That is a function of an enhanced Hadley system in the lower latitudes which is more aligned with global cooling.
Pollution and over population are a totally seperate discussions, and ones that I would be in agreement with you on.
Winston001
16th January 2010, 09:35
True, but neither AGW nor natural warming will cause polar air to be drawn up to temperate regions. That is a function of an enhanced Hadley system in the lower latitudes which is more aligned with global cooling.
I happily bow to your meterological knowledge. However the explanation I posted above for our current cool summer came verbatim from a NZ meterologist interviewed on National Radio 10 days ago. His comments struck me because I had earlier read of some surprising effects of climate change ie. for a few decades some places would be cooler and wetter.
Pollution and over population are a totally seperate discussions, and ones that I would be in agreement with you on.
And this is where I think the whole climate argument has gone off the rails. If we look at the intent of Kyoto/Copenhagen etc it's effect is to reduce pollution. One sad side effect is less food globally as we change to producing bio-fuels which are marginally efficent at best. Bring on the fusion reactors. :D
ukusa
16th January 2010, 09:35
At the end of the day, Global warming or Climate change CO2, Methane, Ozone or what ever, We cannot be taking millions of litres and millions of tons of fossel fuels from an inert state in the ground, and burn them, converting them to gasses and particulate matter in the atmosphere without having an affect on the world we live in....
I don't really care, the real issue for me is "where's the decent fucking riding weather"!!! Global warming, I'd like to see some of that where I live, None of this "we were 0.1 degree warmer on average over the last decade" bullshit.
Winston001
16th January 2010, 09:36
True, but neither AGW nor natural warming will cause polar air to be drawn up to temperate regions. That is a function of an enhanced Hadley system in the lower latitudes which is more aligned with global cooling.
I happily bow to your meterological knowledge. However the explanation I posted above for our current cool summer came verbatim from a NZ meterologist interviewed on National Radio 10 days ago. His comments struck me because I had earlier read of some surprising effects of climate change ie. for a few decades some places would be cooler and wetter.
Pollution and over population are a totally seperate discussions, and ones that I would be in agreement with you on.
And this is where I think the whole climate argument has gone off the rails. If we look at the intent of Kyoto/Copenhagen etc it's effect is to reduce pollution. One sad side effect is less food globally as we change to producing bio-fuels which are marginally efficent at best. Bring on the fusion reactors. :D
Jantar
5th July 2010, 12:48
Shrub and I are having an interesting discussion off the main forum on this subject when I realised that it may be time to resurrect this thread with some new information. Bringing discussion on climate change over here will allow the ETS thread to remain on topic about the financial effects.
Dr Theodor Landscheidt of Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity has postualted that the earth is about to go into a period of cooling. He claims "a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected." http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm
mashman
5th July 2010, 18:25
some one mentioned occums razor before. Simplest being the truth. ETS is a scam. Paying for my carbon footprint? why do I not receive a monthly bill then? is it because you can't tell me exactly how much carbon i've emitted? nope we're just going to make up some numbers for you, so we don't need to invoice you, we'll just deduct it.
v's
solar flares, mother nature, carbon emissions that are really only being guessed at, micro-system destruction, deforestation, dodgy numbers, but it's ok, we can computer model these things, it'll tell us that we need to charge you more... damn I thought i had a positive there...
StoneY
5th July 2010, 18:29
solar flares, mother nature, carbon emissions that are really only being guessed at, micro-system destruction, deforestation, dodgy numbers, but it's ok, we can computer model these things, it'll tell us that we need to charge you more... damn I thought i had a positive there...
There ya have it bruv.... you aint MEANT to think just accept the word from on high as gospel and go back to ya beer!
Pixie
6th July 2010, 10:00
Shrub and I are having an interesting discussion off the main forum on this subject when I realised that it may be time to resurrect this thread with some new information. Bringing discussion on climate change over here will allow the ETS thread to remain on topic about the financial effects.
Dr Theodor Landscheidt of Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity has postualted that the earth is about to go into a period of cooling. He claims "a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected." http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm
Blasphemer!
Pixie
6th July 2010, 10:03
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), no longer publishes well defined “best estimate projections” of global temperature rise to the year 2100 caused by increases in greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere, but publicizes “storylines” to speculate about warming as high as 5.8° C till 2100
Pixie
6th July 2010, 10:09
some one mentioned occums razor before. Simplest being the truth. ETS is a scam. Paying for my carbon footprint? why do I not receive a monthly bill then? is it because you can't tell me exactly how much carbon i've emitted? nope we're just going to make up some numbers for you, so we don't need to invoice you, we'll just deduct it.
v's
solar flares, mother nature, carbon emissions that are really only being guessed at, micro-system destruction, deforestation, dodgy numbers, but it's ok, we can computer model these things, it'll tell us that we need to charge you more... damn I thought i had a positive there...
The problem with Occam's Razor, is that Occam's wife uses it to shave her legs and dulls it.
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