Remind me – what is everyone protesting against?

[Badjelly]

OK. According to LTNZ, there were 170,219 cars (petrol + diesel) registered in 2008 and 13,687 motorcycles. So...

Car Occupants:
- 0.050 active claims per registered car
- $1224 per registered car

Motorcyclists:
- 0.232 active claims per registered motorcycle
- $4568 per registered motorcycle

Am I right so far?

No, as Ixion pointed out immediately. OK, so according to LTNZ there were 2,287,697 cars licensed in 2008 and 55,180 motorcycles plus 19,960 mopeds. (I'm ignoring rental cars and taxis in the cars figure, though accidents involving occupants in those would probably be lumped under car occupants by ACC).

So...

Car Occupants:
- 0.0037 active claims per registered car
- $91 per registered car

Motorcyclists:
- 0.0422 active claims per registered motorcycle/moped
- $832 per registered motorcycle/moped

[Ixion]

I am a biker, I live in Auckland, I ride a 1200 Suzuki, I have never owned a car or held a car licence (I am 53 yo) unfortunately I cant say that I have never lane split.

In fact when living in the UK I went for a UK licence and failed the first one because I didnt lane split. They said I was too timid on the road

yes. That was the bit that seemed totally improbable.

[FastBikeGear]

Hm

And an actuary who claims to be bewildered by figures , and can't find the data he needs ? Wouldn't stay in a job long I think.
.

Well he's not the only one who can't find the data he/we need. In in the originals submissions document ACC stated

"Further information, including consultation documents and 'actuarial reports' relating to setting levy rates and the estimated outstanding claims liability, is available from www.acc.co.nz/consultation. Alternatively, call 0800 ACC RATES (0800 222 728) or send an email with your request to consultation@acc.co.nz."

Well I couldn't can't find any thing that looks like an 'actuary report' via the link given and I requested some stuff via email and quoted the OIA and I still haven't got it - even though the submission is now closed ( I put one in anyway). I have followed up again on my request and I have been promised a response by the close of business today.

Hmm be interested to see what I get.

[Horse]

This guy's a plant.

Exactly - got it in one.

[Horse]

As it actually happened, the traffic was probably doing about 50kph in an 80 zone, and the biker lane split at probably 20kph above the traffic speed.

If you're surprised by a vehicle approaching from behind with a closing speed of 20km/h, you're not fit to drive on NZ roads. Please hand your license in to your nearest AA or other designated NZTA agent and stick to bicycling.

[Badjelly]

His objective is to be able to say "Look, the bikers provided my with their own figures. And they're wrong!'

Do we have figures?

[mashman]

Sorry, I'm with Reflex on this one. Probablity and chance are effectively the same thing. Toss a die and the probability of getting a six is 1/6. The cahnce of getting a six is 1/6. There is no difference between probability and chance.

Probability is calculated. Chance is a static value of 50%... HUGE DIFFERENCE...

If you have 2 dice the Probability changes, Chance does not

[Reckless]

Originally Posted by Ixion
This guy's a plant.

Exactly - got it in one.

Agreed I posted this way Back on page 3

You sure your not simply on a fact finding mission for the Nats???

[pzkpfw]

Screw the statistics. Here is what I'm fighting for...

Background A.

My car is a 2006 Toyota Avensis. Nine airbags, and a bunch of other safety features that gave it the first 5 star safety rating (2003) under the revised NCAP system; the highest score ever at that time. So in a crash I should be safer than many other drivers - I am less likely to be injured and my injuries should be less serious. I therefore carry a lower "risk" of cost to ACC.

But do I think I should get lower ACC premiums on my car registration (or those "unsafe" drivers pay more)? No. There are two reasons:

Firstly, although safety was among criteria I used when I bought that car - I wouldn't have bought it if I couldn't afford it. Penalising drivers of "less safe" cars (which in many ways simply means "older" or "cheaper" cars) is as much a penalty on having a lower income. Taking more money off people who didn't have enough to start with is inequitable. Besides, the unaffordable new car of today becomes the affordable second-hand car of tommorrow (my Avensis is now worth half what I paid for it). Over time the vehicle fleet does in general get "safer" as the newer safety features trickle down.

Secondly, people should have choice - and why the heck not! What if some Kiwi happens to be able to afford some brand-new up-to-date-safety-features car but happens to like their old VF Valiant? I've come to the conclusion that I don't care. If that's what they want to drive, I am quite happy for them to drive it. It's not up to me to tell them not to. I am perfectly happy for him/her and me to pay the same ACC fees in our registration, regardless of whether they are more "at risk" in their Valiant than I am in my Avensis.

{This is not so different to how my ACC fees are helping to pay for cyclists and rugby players. I don't care if that's whay they want to do. They can do both at the same time for all I care. Maybe tommorrow I'll start riding my bicycle again? Maybe my Nephews who play Rugby will get hurt? Who knows? I'll just keep paying my ACC fees and people will still get cared for. That's a good thing.}

Background B.

While I drive a "safe" car, I am apparently very unsafe when I ride my motorcycle. The statistics "prove" this (even after ignoring the ACC rubbish "16 times" claim, we are more likely to have accidents on bikes then in cars).

But that is simply a convienient way to "classify" a chunk of the population. Here's a bunch of road users:

A B C D E F G H

ACC find a way to classify a chunk of them:

Cars=(A B C D E F) Bikes=(G H)

ACC then say "bikes are more risky/costly so let's charge them more".

But that's much more arbitrary than it seems. There are other ways to segregate the population.

White Cars=(A B C) Black Cars=(D E F) Bikes=(G H)

The statistics prove that black cars are more likely to have accidents than white cars. Why does ACC not separate out those drivers of black cars, and make them pay higher ACC fees?

Screw that. I can tell you that Dutch born 6 foot 3 inch drivers of Toyota Avensis's have had zero motor vehicle related ACC claims EVER - so maybe they should demand that they be given a 100% discount on ACC fees! Why draw that circle around bikes? Why isn't the road fund just one big pool we can all contribute to?

Conclusion

There are plenty of other reasons why the proposed increases are wrong (e.g. to do with how the numbers are calculated and how "risk" and/or "fault" are treated) but the above two points are what I've found to be my main drivers: freedom of choice, and the collective help we give each other.


I am fighting for being a Kiwi. Us all being able to have a go, to do what we want (within reason) and help each other when it goes wrong.

You want to paint your own house? I'll help you if you fall off your ladder.

You like your kids to help in the kitchen? I'll help you if they cut themselves.

You like playing rugby? I'll help you when the scrum collapses on your neck.

You like cycling? I'll help you when the car "didn't see you".


I like riding my bike. Will you help me, if I need it?




(And don't get all "absolutist" on me. I am not advocating "complete freedom"; e.g. I think reasonable speed limits and a ban on drink driving are fine. I'm happy that even that VF Valiant, mentioned above, needs to pass a W.O.F. inspection. I don't mind being told to wear a motorcycle helmet, and I even wonder why gloves are not mandatory.)

[Bald Eagle]

Screw the statistics. Here is what I'm fighting for...

I am fighting for being a Kiwi. Us all being able to have a go, to do what we want (within reason) and help each other when it goes wrong.

You want to paint your own house? I'll help you if you fall off your ladder.

You like your kids to help in the kitchen? I'll help you if they cut themselves.

You like playing rugby? I'll help you when the scrum collapses on your neck.

You like cycling? I'll help you when the car "didn't see you".


I like riding my bike. Will you help me, if I need it?

One of the best statements I have seen yet on this subject.

[DidJit]

Screw the statistics. Here is what I'm fighting for...

I am fighting for being a Kiwi. Us all being able to have a go, to do what we want (within reason) and help each other when it goes wrong.

You want to paint your own house? I'll help you if you fall off your ladder.

You like your kids to help in the kitchen? I'll help you if they cut themselves.

You like playing rugby? I'll help you when the scrum collapses on your neck.

You like cycling? I'll help you when the car "didn't see you".


I like riding my bike. Will you help me, if I need it?

One of the best statements I have seen yet on this subject.

+1. Bling due (when I get some more...)

[Jantar]

Probability is calculated. Chance is a static value of 50%... HUGE DIFFERENCE...

If you have 2 dice the Probability changes, Chance does not

I trust then that you are going to rewrite all the statistics text books with this brand new definition?

Are you also going to tell all those people who buy a lotto ticket that the chance of them getting the 1st division is 50%, or 1 chance in 2?

[NighthawkNZ:Me]

getting the 1st division is 50%, or 1 chance in 2?

cool I'll buy two

[mashman]

I trust then that you are going to rewrite all the statistics text books with this brand new definition?

Are you also going to tell all those people who buy a lotto ticket that the chance of them getting the 1st division is 50%, or 1 chance in 2?

Ahhhh semantics... It's cool, we look at things differently...

I'll tell the people who buy a lotto ticket that you have a 1 in 4 million Probability, but your chance still remains 50 - 50, because you either win it, or you don't... again though that's just my take, you can class it as wrong if you like.

[twotyred]

I am fighting for being a Kiwi. Us all being able to have a go, to do what we want (within reason) and help each other when it goes wrong.

You want to paint your own house? I'll help you if you fall off your ladder.

You like your kids to help in the kitchen? I'll help you if they cut themselves.

You like playing rugby? I'll help you when the scrum collapses on your neck.

You like cycling? I'll help you when the car "didn't see you".


I like riding my bike. Will you help me, if I need it?

This would make a damn fine handout or poster