A motorcycle industry crisis? Your thoughts

[Brett]

I have been carrying out some industry analysis as part of a paper I am doing with Massey University in business strategy & change, and luckily for me, one of the available industries for analysis is the leisure motorcycle market (The paper coordinator being a rather avid motorcycle fan himself). The first assignment that I undertook was an industry analysis looking at the nature of the competitive forces within the industry, a determination of their corporate strategies and a look at the profitability of the industry as a whole.

One of the things that this analysis has highlighted, is that there is a big 'glut' or bubble moving through the motorcycle industry of older (35-60+), mostly male, individuals. These are blokes who came of age in an era when it was very common for young men to get motorcycle licences and own bikes and who now, having time and money, have got back into motorcycling. They provide a large amount of industry demand. On average, 30 - 35% of men had licenses.

Contrast this with the new generation of under 25's. This group on average only has 7% of people getting motorbike licenses. As a predominantly LEISURE oriented industry, where people generally only buy the larger "leisure" bikes when they have surplus income etc...it really looks like the motorcycle industry is in for a rough time in around 30 years, unless the motorcycle industry can attract younger riders.

So...my question for this forum, is what do YOU think can be done to encourage more people to ride bikes?

Another question - Harley Davidson (whom I'm specifically reviewing as a company at the moment) have a product that is by-in-large aimed the 40+ age group and who have little connection (I think) to the younger markets have a dilemma to deal with...how do they engage with younger riders...what can they do? YOUR THOUGHTS?

[AllanB]

A motorcycle is no longer 'cheap' transport - it was 30 years back but with the introduction of import cars a young man can pop down fuck all cash and load up the HP on a very high performance car that will carry him and his mates around looking for fat slags to pick-up and get high with. He can then park up his noise box outside Joe Publics house at 1.00am fuck one of the fat chicks in Joe Publics front garden, leave a sloppy used rubber and a few empty cans of RTD's on the drive for Joe Publics kids to walk past on their way to school, then do a few dounuts before driving off home to mums house to sleep off the night.

Plus if he rides a motorcycle the helmet will muck up his hair and he will more than likely have to pull up his bloody trousers so he can get a leg over the seat.

[fridayflash]

interesting thoughts, theres a lot of younguns trailriding and racing motocross etc so the question must be
..how to transit them onto road capable bikes as they come of age, harley davidson bought buell from eric buell
in an effort to tempt the extreme freestyle and dirt riding american yoot's onto what they percieved to be a more
contemporary product...perhaps it didnt work?
lets face it necessity is a great motivator..if fuel prices get beyond $5 and the price and availability of parking
gets worse then scooters and entry level bikes (lams has gotta be a good thing here) may see a boost in
popularity

what conclusions have you come up with yourself brett?

[Brett]

A motorcycle is no longer 'cheap' transport - it was 30 years back but with the introduction of import cars a young man can pop down fuck all cash and load up the HP on a very high performance car that will carry him and his mates around looking for fat slags to pick-up and get high with. He can then park up his noise box outside Joe Publics house at 1.00am fuck one of the fat chicks in Joe Publics front garden, leave a sloppy used rubber and a few empty cans of RTD's on the drive for Joe Publics kids to walk past on their way to school, then do a few dounuts before driving off home to mums house to sleep off the night.

Plus if he rides a motorcycle the helmet will muck up his hair and he will more than likely have to pull up his bloody trousers so he can get a leg over the seat.

yeah, but surely these were factors 30 years ago too...

- Young men have always been vain about their looks, bikes can be rather counter productive to this - even when now wearing a helmet etc the wind would mess your hair up.
- Motorbikes have always been perceived as dangerous...this is nothing new and mothers will have been trying to coerce their sons into cars instead of on bikes as much then as they do now.
- Cars - Ok...they might not have been the high performance things we get today, and I'm sure inflation adjusted and pre- relaxation of import tarrifs, the average used car would have been more expensive. However, they would always have had the appeal of being able to carry all of the 'boys' plus a few hot girls in a much more convenient way than bikes can afford. Plus, you can get a learner bike for a couple of grand these days.

I had to consider all these 'issues' and yet still opted to ride bikes (As well as owning a high performance car). In fact, all bar one of the boys amongst my brother and cousins rode bikes (I'm the only one still a rider).

[fridayflash]

A motorcycle is no longer 'cheap' transport - it was 30 years back but with the introduction of import cars a young man can pop down fuck all cash and load up the HP on a very high performance car that will carry him and his mates around looking for fat slags to pick-up and get high with. He can then park up his noise box outside Joe Publics house at 1.00am fuck one of the fat chicks in Joe Publics front garden, leave a sloppy used rubber and a few empty cans of RTD's on the drive for Joe Publics kids to walk past on their way to school, then do a few dounuts before driving off home to mums house to sleep off the night.

Plus if he rides a motorcycle the helmet will muck up his hair and he will more than likely have to pull up his bloody trousers so he can get a leg over the seat.

tell us how you really feel alanb

[MIXONE]

There are two types of motorcyclists.Those (like myself) who have lusted over them since being able to put coherent thoughts together and those who come into them later in life.It's getting the attention of the second group that is the problem.A modern version of the "You meet the nicest people on a Honda" ad with saturation marketing maybe?

[st00ji]

im constantly amazed at how few bikes there are on the motorway in auckland.

i know if had to spend a few months sitting in queues while the (few) bikes merrily rolled by i'd be looking into one pretty seriously.

couldnt live without mine these days.

looking forward to buying sweet bikes once im old and cashed up, hah.

legal standing of lane splitting should be formalised (in favor of, naturally) and traffic busting nature of bikes should be pushed! who needs rail loop / more roads etc.

[AllanB]

Nope 30 years ago when I had spent a few years doing double paper rounds, market gardening jobs in the school holidays to save for my first motorcycle they were cheap compared to cars. My 1st bike was a CB200 Honda (red) I paid $500 for it (purchased it off a cop!). All my friends got motorcycles too as a crapped out oil burning leaky rusted piece of British shit car would cost you 2-3 times that.

Some years later I wanted to buy a Valant Charger (still keep the bike - was a 440 Kawa by then) and I regret to this day listing to my father who put me off purchasing it. It was a bright orange one - bet I'd still have it today if I had purchased it.

[Brett]

interesting thoughts, theres a lot of younguns trailriding and racing motocross etc so the question must be
..how to transit them onto road capable bikes as they come of age, harley davidson bought buell from eric buell
in an effort to tempt the extreme freestyle and dirt riding american yoot's onto what they percieved to be a more
contemporary product...perhaps it didnt work?
lets face it necessity is a great motivator..if fuel prices get beyond $5 and the price and availability of parking
gets worse then scooters and entry level bikes (lams has gotta be a good thing here) may see a boost in
popularity

what conclusions have you come up with yourself brett?

Interesting comments re: motorcross transition to road riding...this is kind of where my thoughts have been going too.

My personal thoughts at this stage is that:

1) As you say, necessity will inevitably drive the need for motorcycle uptake. Fuel prices and traffic congestion alone are enough to convince me to motorcycle to work etc. Whether this will encourage a growth in the 'transport' related motorcycle market of smaller, cheaper to run and buy bikes/scooters instead of the leisure market is a cause for consideration. This is an entirely different market, with very different structures of competitive forces etc and while there is most certainly an overlap (people who buy "leisure" bikes that they commute with mon-fri and they ride socially with, go to the track with etc. on the weekend ) it does need to be kept as a separate market/industry for analysis.

2) I think that there will still be a bit of an uptake by older riders when they are older having a) more time on their hands and b) more funds to sink into what is ultimately an expensive leisure activity.

3) I think that issues at govt level can have an impact, such as the road planning decisions made by local bodies/govt - wire rope barriers etc being a factor. A road environment that is more motorcyclist friendly can help to reduce those barriers to motorcycle ownership associated with safety.

Other thoughts are still mulling around in my head.

If anyone is actually interested in the analysis let me know and I will PM it to you/whack it up here.

edit You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to AllanB again.

[Zipper2T]

Well perhaps the latest sales figures for new bikes are a pointer to the future. Out of the twelve top selling new bike models, eight were scooters and seven of those were mopeds.

http://www.autotalk.co.nz/index.php?...rket&Itemid=55


This is what the younger demographic are buying as cheap transport in urban areas. In time they may decide to graduate to a larger machines but, of course, the licensing and especially the registration costs, are a major disincentive. A lot will just give up and buy a car. It's not just a case of here's your learner license, now you've got year to practice after which come back for a simple round the block practical test and away you go...fully legal. As it was thirty+ years ago.

[AllanB]

Another thing is 30 years back cars got really shit MPG - motorcycles used little fuel by comparison. Now days motorcycle fuel use has not changed on a pure MPG basis (execption the new Honda NX thingy) but cars have vastly improved.


I will state that on a HP per fuel use motorcycles have improved.

[wysper]

A motorcycle is no longer 'cheap' transport - .

legal standing of lane splitting should be formalised (in favor of, naturally) and traffic busting nature of bikes should be pushed!

Yep, couple of good points here.

A motorcycle now is probably more expensive to run day to day than a car.

Our roads and cities aren't bike friendly. For instance free motorcycle parking is disappearing, splitting or filtering seems to be generally discouraged, and to the average punter ambiguous as to legality.

I use a bike as my primary transport, but I imagine most wouldn't want to. You can get a car as cheaply as a decent bike, insure it for less,
register it for less and probably get better fuel economy so it really doesn't add up financially to ride.

So aside from the few who want to ride because the want to ride, there is little reason to get a bike.

I would think it is up to the motorcycle industry and manufacturers to address these concerns. Lobby/work for clarification of laws in their industries favour. Lobby/work towards rego costs.

I would be happy for my kids to ride, but I doubt they would want the disadvantages of a bike over a car when they start off. Especially the big one when you are younger - cost. Cost of bike, gear, insurance, rego.

[Ocean1]

I think ACC paranoia and general bad press will see bikes first priced and then legislated off the road.

I look forward to regular late night runners from teh fuzz on my banned motorcycle. Wonder if they'll get to confiscate it before I die.

[Zipper2T]

Second hand cars have got cheaper while the asking prices for used bikes (say 20+ years old) are just crazy!

[Oblivion]

I feel like I can contribute to the younger rider demographic.

My riding passion started with my Dad telling stories about his old days, being a coot in RNZAF, and how he rode bikes. His story ended with him in a head on, now with a rod in the arm. The first thing that he said to me when I got my bike back when I was 16? Don't be like one of those other cockheads out there. (Aka, Be the fuck careful). And Ive been riding for almost 4 years now. I just like the feel of being able to gear up and go places without a care. I don't feel that I get that freedom in a cage.

But in regards to attracting younger riders, Its a safety issue. I have had friends that have come up to me and said, "Dude, I should totally get a bike licence, It's be awesome" And I ask whats stopping them. Parents dont want kids out there on a motorbike, because they have been through the 70's-80's where motorcycle death rates were horrendous. And as far as they are concerned not much has changed in regards to training and general motorcycle safety. I know that whenever I go out on the bike, I am putting myself at a much bigger risk than I would be if I were driving a cage. And thats a massive downside for people looking at biking.

And this leads onto the other part, cost. Its just getting too expensive considering most financial conditions of the younger people. The costs of ownership are being increased for no justifiable reason. Rego is 500$ a year, Decent gear is 1000$ and the rest, insurance and general rat bikes cost more than a steaming pile of bolts with 4 wheels. You are coming out of Uni with a student debt, trying to pay it off. If the costs dont add up you cant do it. Which is what I feel is happening. People are taking the cheaper upfront cost of getting a cage. When they could be saving over the long run by sacrificing a little bit of convenience (Carrying shit)

Also, not very many younger riders are of the Nana variety. Too many of them end up talking to one of these