Annual road toll up 44

[gjm]

Has there been any official response to the stats? (Other than the pulp news conjecture?)

[TheDemonLord]

Okay - so a lot of accusations and requests to back what I said up with some data - so here yah go:



And the government transport website:

http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/roadtoll/#5

It is curious that we see a massive dip around 2009 for the price of Crude and a massive increase in the Road toll for the corresponding year, it then increases slightly for 2010, and we see a slight reduction in the toll, then we see another spike in 2011 and we see a big reduction in the road toll and finally another dip in 2012 and the Road Toll goes up.

It also accounts for my 4th point - less cars on the road means for those that can afford to drive - they have less other cars to crash into/hold them up etc. so less likelyhood of there being a crash

No I am not going to commit the police fallacy and say that Petrol price is the only factor, but it certainly is A factor - higher prices mean some people can't afford to go on holiday OR can only afford to go on holiday to destinations closer to home - this means less traffic on the road and people taking shorter road trips - which reduces their risk of crashing (less time spent on the road)

Now to back up my point about educated drivers being better - I did find some graphing and did do an examination of their sources

Here is the graph:



And here is the website it is from:

http://fathersmanifesto.net/iq.htm

For the Record - it appears to be a white supremecist/christian supremicist website (which I personally find to be one of the most vile combinations - but that is an aside) and as such, I treat all their data as highly suspicious (hence why I am posting the source link so no one can accuse me of not being transparent)

Read into it what you will - for those that reject the data on the basis that it is likely biased (which you are more than entitled to) - I ask just this one question - do you agree that someone with a Higher IQ is more likely to be able to learn good driving techniques from others quicker and more effectively, more likely to take additional driver training (most people with high IQs like additional education), more likely to not be under the influence of drugs/alcohol, more likely to be aware of the dangers of tired driving and finally more likely to be aware of the current road rules and abide by them?

As for BMW drivers - I don't know where this came from - I have checked my original post and there is nothing about BMW drivers - I only mentioned that richer people tend to drive newer late model cars with better safety (side impact airbags, airbags for passengers etc.) which means should they be involved in a crash - they are less likely to be fatal.

For those that don't believe me on this point:



Newer cars have shorter stopping distances (so less likely to collide in the first place)

And here is the definitive:



So now we have established my first 2 points (which so many of you asked me for evidence) and by corollary point 4 - this just leaves point 3:

This is not a racist attack but simple maths - if you have a 5 seat car with 4 occupants (parents, 2 children) vs a people mover with 9 people in it (parents, children, extended family and friends - aka Whanau) and both are in a fatal crash - which one is more likely to have a higher body count (with all other factors being equal)? And it has long been known that lower income groups tend to have larger numbers of children, whereas higher income groups tend to have a smaller number.

[R650R]

This is not a racist attack but simple maths - if you have a 5 seat car with 4 occupants (parents, 2 children) vs a people mover with 9 people in it (parents, children, extended family and friends - aka Whanau) and both are in a fatal crash - which one is more likely to have a higher body count (with all other factors being equal)? And it has long been known that lower income groups tend to have larger numbers of children, whereas higher income groups tend to have a smaller number.

They say there's lies, damn lies and statistics....

On a percentage basis the car with nine occupants would be the safer one to be in... as long as all the other factors are the same eg seatbelts good tyres etc then the car with nine people is more likely to be driven in a safer coutesous manner on the way to the campground. Where as My Whitey in his leased HSV commodore and 2.5 children is prob in a hurry to get the limited off street parking at the city hotel so no one scratches his symbolic manhood.... you can play these sagas any direction...

I think poorer people less likely to be insured so maybe more proactive about avoiding collision....

At any level I don't think it would figure in NZTA safety strategys at any level that will be taken seriously, so many factors that would skew the data... Its like saying sportsbike riders are more likely to be higher educated and safer riders than Harley riders... (this is not my view just illustrating angle)....

But just for shits and giggles you could ring Michael Laws on talkback and let him run with this one

[Scuba_Steve]

I'm surprised the road toll is not higher with the level of incompetence of humans behind the wheel/bars.
Drop the blood alcohol to zero to make the calculation of " how much can I drink" easier.
fit jammers to vehicles to stop mobile phones working.
Have Rego based on power, want more power, pay more.
Make third party insurance compulsory
Take ACC off motor vehicles and transfer to personal insurance.

You're an idiot
Zero is stupid, it's the drunks that are the real problem not people wanting to have 1 or 2
Again stupid, jammers aren't specific or directional they'll take out alot more than just cells... also the radio is much more dangerous than talking on a cell
Why?
If you want to pay more than pay more, don't force everyone else too... Just get yourself full insurance, be happy it's still cheaper than compulsory 3rd party & stop complaining everyone should be forced to pay more for insurance
Again if you want to pay more do so, go get yourself private healthcare & stop trying to fuck over everyone else

You believe your evidence, and I believe ours. Each piece of evidence I produce, you can produce something to the contrary. And vice versa. For the record, again, I actually don't buy 100% the party line, but it's still the party line. How far would it get me to run around disagreeing with the Bwana? Nowhere, coz he's still the Bwana.

You want to produce some evidence showing the speed scam to work? & this could be anywhere in the world, I'm interested to see it... I have plenty of studies showing it to be what it is, a scam, but yet to see one showing it to work. I'm not the only one either, as I've previously mentioned road safety expert John Lambert is also yet to see a study backing up this absurd claim; so if you can produce one I'm interested to see it

[TheDemonLord]

They say there's lies, damn lies and statistics....

On a percentage basis the car with nine occupants would be the safer one to be in... as long as all the other factors are the same eg seatbelts good tyres etc then the car with nine people is more likely to be driven in a safer coutesous manner on the way to the campground. Where as My Whitey in his leased HSV commodore and 2.5 children is prob in a hurry to get the limited off street parking at the city hotel so no one scratches his symbolic manhood.... you can play these sagas any direction...

I think poorer people less likely to be insured so maybe more proactive about avoiding collision....

At any level I don't think it would figure in NZTA safety strategys at any level that will be taken seriously, so many factors that would skew the data... Its like saying sportsbike riders are more likely to be higher educated and safer riders than Harley riders... (this is not my view just illustrating angle)....

But just for shits and giggles you could ring Michael Laws on talkback and let him run with this one

I love the lies, damned lies and statistics quote.

But I don't think that your idea that a car with 9 people is more likely to be driven safely has any merit:

Anecdotally - some of the worst driving behaviour I have witnessed has come from people movers, fully laden
Next - you have 8 potential sources of distraction as opposed to 3
I don't think that number of occupants would decrease the hurry that the driver would be in to get somewhere - if anything having 8 people asking how much longer and 'are we there yet' is going to increase the hurry.
I do agree however that you could play the Saga every which way (based on conjecture, personal experience and what not)

Finally lack of insurance vs proactive avoidance of crashes - this is a toughy - on one hand I agree that not having insurance is a very good incentive not to crash, on the other - I would much less want to crash a $100,000 car compared to a $10,000 car - I actually don't think that on a day-to-day basis the lack of insurance has any bearing on the drivers actions.

[kiwi cowboy]

I meant applied to cars.

I didn't know this until recently but it is in a way as the likes of the wrx subies and mitsi ovo's are taxed higher in redg than the perceived ordinary car or so im told.

[pete376403]

I didn't know this until recently but it is in a way as the likes of the wrx subies and mitsi ovo's are taxed higher in redg than the perceived ordinary car or so im told.

Love to know where you heard this..
all I can find is http://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicle/regi...sing/fees.html

(Sorry about the formatting)

Registration of motor vehicle (issued with standard plates, and includes your first vehicle licence)
6 months 12 months
Passenger car/van
Private passenger Petrol driven - 1301-2600cc 291.08 431.25
Petrol driven - 2601-4000cc 322.13 462.30
Non-petrol driven - 1301-2600cc 361.77 572.64
Non-petrol driven - 2601-4000cc 392.82 603.69
Trailer
Other (standard) goods 0-3500kg GVM 84.46 98.55
Motorcycle
Private passenger Petrol driven - 0 - 60cc incl 246.36 444.18
Petrol driven - 61cc – 600cc incl 273.96 477.53
Petrol driven – 601cc and over 331.03 591.69
Moped
Private passenger Petrol driven 131.23 213.93
See more information on registering your vehicle.

So it appears registering a WRX / Evo costs about the same as a 60cc scooter

[BMWST?]

people with more powerful bikes and cars (petrol) already pay more as more powerful vehicles use more petrol therefore pay more tax,including acc..The SPEED obsession is because it is a factoer and it is easily measured.Other factors are less easily measured.
I think there needs to be a little more focus on other bad driving behaviour and enforcement backed up by the courts.simple stuff like seatbelts, and keeping left.The 9 occupants of the people mover probably arent wearing seatbelts,whereas the commodore occupants probably are,and BMW Audi and Merc drivers almost certainly will be

[caspernz]

I didn't know this until recently but it is in a way as the likes of the wrx subies and mitsi ovo's are taxed higher in redg than the perceived ordinary car or so im told.

Rego is the same, but the insurance now that's another topic

[pete376403]

And of course car registration goes down from 1 June on average 41%. Bike rego goes down a tiny little bit

[caspernz]

I love the lies, damned lies and statistics quote.

But I don't think that your idea that a car with 9 people is more likely to be driven safely has any merit:

Anecdotally - some of the worst driving behaviour I have witnessed has come from people movers, fully laden
Next - you have 8 potential sources of distraction as opposed to 3
I don't think that number of occupants would decrease the hurry that the driver would be in to get somewhere - if anything having 8 people asking how much longer and 'are we there yet' is going to increase the hurry.
I do agree however that you could play the Saga every which way (based on conjecture, personal experience and what not)

Finally lack of insurance vs proactive avoidance of crashes - this is a toughy - on one hand I agree that not having insurance is a very good incentive not to crash, on the other - I would much less want to crash a $100,000 car compared to a $10,000 car - I actually don't think that on a day-to-day basis the lack of insurance has any bearing on the drivers actions.

The topic of the road toll very quickly takes a dive into social studies, at least if we allow our own anecdotal evidence to form opinions. I wonder if statistics would back some of this up? Not PC in this day and age of course.

The insurance thing ($100k car vs $10k car, and behaviour of driver) quickly becomes a moot point when you consider income. Say you can afford that $100k car, it's seen as no different as the $10k car to someone who earns less don't you think?

Personally I think my best way to make a positive contribution to the subject matter is to remain calm and vigilant, indulge in available training whether at work or private time, and just enjoy myself.

[BMWST?]

The topic of the road toll very quickly takes a dive into social studies, at least if we allow our own anecdotal evidence to form opinions. I wonder if statistics would back some of this up? Not PC in this day and age of course.

The insurance thing ($100k car vs $10k car, and behaviour of driver) quickly becomes a moot point when you consider income. Say you can afford that $100k car, it's seen as no different as the $10k car to someone who earns less don't you think?

Personally I think my best way to make a positive contribution to the subject matter is to remain calm and vigilant, indulge in available training whether at work or private time, and just enjoy myself.

the actual price difference between a 10 000 car and 100 000 dollar car as far as insurance is concerened is bugger all .Your other stuff...well said

[FJRider]

I didn't know this until recently but it is in a way as the likes of the wrx subies and mitsi ovo's are taxed higher in redg than the perceived ordinary car or so im told.

I don't know about being taxed higher ... but the insurance for them is dammed expensive ... some companies won't even cover them. (top of the stolen vehicles list)

[FJRider]

So many factors at play, recession, weather patterns, fuel prices, new WOF laws maybe influencing buyer/importer choices to newer safer cars....

The Stupidity factor has featured a few time too .. the old excuse ... "It seemed like a good idea at the time" ...


But ... regardless of how safe your vehicle is .... doing a U-turn in front of a fully laden logging truck is not a good idea.

[Tazz]

So now we have established my first 2 points (which so many of you asked me for evidence) and by corollary point 4 - this just leaves point 3:

Hmm, so where is the analysis of the NZ crashes showing what accidents were caused by driver error, those by vehicle failures and what injuries and fatalities were a direct result of a lack of side curtain airbags and such. Also for the age, does my old 88-97 model/generation vehicle that had a 4 star safety rating count as a clapped out heap of shit? What about the new great wall and Toyota 70 series that are only 2 and 3 star? Do they make it past your year cut off to be counted as safe or fall somewhere else?

What about the old fella that had the head on with the truck on SH1 on the 29th? If that was a medical problem where does the year of his car come into it? If it was medical was it hereditary or directly related to his age? Did he have massive head injuries from lack of an airbag, and if so, was he actually already dead from a heart attack before they happened anyway?

Also do you have stats of 'educated' (what counts as educated? Uni grad? On job learning?) vs 'non educated' accidents, fatalities vs injury/nil?

I haven't even touched the surface . You can almost draw whatever numbers you want from data like that and present it as whatever you like.

So yeah, unless you've sat down with a calculator and spent a bit of time sifting through accurate data and compiled it correctly, you're drawing big conclusions on your bullet points no matter how you dress it.

As for the BMW stuff before, I know I'd feel safer riding near a nice and tidy BMW than a dented to fuck Commodore.