Crude oil prices - how low?

[mark247]

As Crude hit's its 3 month low, down to around $114USD a barrel after it peaked at $147 around the start of last month where do you think it is going to go from here?

Some economists are saying it's going to go down to as low as $80 a barrel and sit there for a while. Some a saying its going to start rising again very soon and keep going through the roof. From what I have read it is 6 of one and half a dozen of the other.

In my opinion I think ( hopefully ) its slowly going to come to a steady halt at a steady price ( still not cheap ) as China's demand stops growing ( it is down 7% from last year ) and as the United States decreases it's demand.

What do you guys reckon is going to happen in the next year or so?

[idleidolidyll]

The price at the pump will never go back down as low as it was prior to the ill conceived invasion of Iraq; the catalyst for the rises.

Although the oil companies are all making record profits, the way fuel pricing is set up allows them to plead poverty while minting it in reality.

The cost of fuel to gas stations is kept artificially high so these crooks can bleat at how little they are making in profit. In reality only the independents are hurting over this. The oil companies are laughing all the way to the bank as the massive sourcing and refining profits fill their coffers to overflowing.

Yes, the retail price will come back a bit (even with the whining about prices being based on Singapore), but the reality is that the days of cheap petrol are over forever.

That's the way capitalism 'works': oligarchic monopolies are able to manipulate the system and fuck us all over.

[Fatjim]

Yeah, its all the governments fault.

[Forest]

Petrol is still cheap when you consider all the benefits we get from it.

Having said that, I think that the price will drop a little more then stabilise.

[Pedrostt500]

They will find some little skirmish in some back water banana republic to hike the price back up, weather the skirmish happened or not wont matter.
The real trick would be to figure out how to make your own etanol to mix into your fuel so you cut back your need, though this is easier said than done.
We need to start getting smarter as a country and cut back our dependance on imported fuels, the how and where is for better minds than mine to figure out, the future may be with certain types of alge and maybe capturing methane to be converted to petrol.

[mark247]

They will find some little skirmish in some back water banana republic to hike the price back up, weather the skirmish happened or not wont matter.

Although that is usually the case, at the moment the conflict in Georgia, where there are pipe lines running oil to the west, is making no difference to the price. People are ignoring it strangely.

[SPman]

Well - it's going up again.
Let the Russians cut the Baku pipeline and away it'll go again.
Get used to it peeps.

oligarchic monopolies are able to manipulate the system and fuck us all over.

But no one seems to notice...........after all.....it's all Helens fault!

[mark247]

Well - it's going up again.

Just dropped $1.29 a barrel in the last few hours actually lol down to $133.11 now, its great you can basically just watch the price fall at the moment. There is a trend thats been going the last month, it goes down say $4 or so, then slowly rises $2, then drops another $4, then goes up another $2 again and again.

[riffer]

Russian conflict in Georgia causes potential disruption to oil pipelines.
Upcoming US naval blockade (sorry, sanctions - yeah right) of Straight of Hormuz.
NZ dollar on the slide vs US.

Pick any one. Price of gas will not go down any time soon.

[mark247]

NZ dollar on the slide vs US.

I dont fully understand why, but I read that the strengthening US dollar ( not weakening NZ ) is actually helping prices of crude go down.

"A stronger dollar is also pushing prices down. The euro fell Tuesday to $1.4894, while the dollar was holding near 110 yen.

A weak dollar helped boost oil prices earlier this year, because dollar-denominated commodities are often used as hedges against inflation and a falling U.S. currency. But gains in the currency are reversing that trend."

[riffer]

I dont fully understand why, but I read that the strengthening US dollar ( not weakening NZ ) is actually helping prices of crude go down.

True, but despite the government's assurances to the contrary, I haven't seen the price of gas at my local servo go down while the price of crude has dropped by nearly $12 a barrel.

Explain that.

[mark247]

True, but despite the government's assurances to the contrary, I haven't seen the price of gas at my local servo go down while the price of crude has dropped by nearly $12 a barrel.

Explain that.

We are talking about two different things. I'm talking about the price of crude oil in US dollars, and you are talking about petrol at the pump. I can fully understand how a weakening NZ dollar is going to cause petrol prices to possibly increase because crude oil is always sold using the US dollar

[Swoop]

crude oil is always sold using the US dollar

Apart from in Yrp where the Euro is taking over. Iran wants/wanted to trade all their oil in Euro's, just to piss the Americans off.

[kiwi cowboy]

True, but despite the government's assurances to the contrary, I haven't seen the price of gas at my local servo go down while the price of crude has dropped by nearly $12 a barrel.

Explain that.

well there saying that the dollar dropping against the us dollar is negating the drop in oil price lol sucks shit dont it [i dont belive a word they say]

[mark247]

well there saying that the dollar dropping against the us dollar is negating the drop in oil price lol sucks shit dont it [i dont belive a word they say]

of cause it is having an effect. The drop in our dollar means we need more of our money to buy US money, and the crude oil is in US dollar so we need MORE NZ money to buy the same amount.