Not everyone missed the signs...

[boomer]

More wisdom from those in the no.If per chance you wake up in the morning go outside and listen (for those in Auckland ive no answer).If you have made bad choices get over it and get on with it.

The distant sound of the neighbours' banjo's playing does it for you then Kleetus?

[slofox]

Times are hard and wages are small......
so drink more piss and fuck 'em all....

[alanzs]

An American workers perspective...http://www.truthout.org/112108L

Excellent article.

[Big Dave]

Better a lemon

I think you are a lemon - always good for a drink.

[The Stranger:Me]

There's a few people who have seen this shit heading our way but they have generally been laughed at for not following the common wisdom of the time. Even I have predicted the housing collapse for the past few years.

Oil is now down because demand has cratered, but if we can reinflate another bubble by throwing enough "money" around it will bounce right back and even exceed the $147 it hit before.

I recall Muldoon predicting the sharemarket crash for about 5yrs prior. When it came, he was soo quick to point out that he predicted it. There is nothing smart in predicting the enivitable - timing is everything.

Did speculators entering the market have any effect in driving the oil prices up, or was it all genuine demand fueled? Do you suppose that they are sill taking long positions?

[Bullitt]

Lots of comments in here I dont agree with.

Sorry to say it to those affected but investing in two finance companies who invest in property development or even worse second hand cars is not diversification.

Oil prices were not fueled by excess demand or limited supply although both were a factor. The major reason was speculation by people (particularly hedge funds) who thought prices would go up forever.

Free Trade is great, the problem is the only people who benefit from it are the people who need it the least...namely USA and Europe. The main gain from free trade comes from less developed economies (including to a lesser extent NZ) being able to provide more efficent agriculture to developed nations who are relatively less efficient at doing it. Despite all their claims Europe and US both have massive protectionism on agriculture whereas all the less developed countries have dropped their tariffs and subsidies making them less competitive against other countries. Its a prisoners dilema (game theory) and everyone only wins if everyone plays.

Oil will not be an issue. Im confident the world wont run out of oil in my lifetime (should be another 50-60 years Id hope). Both through scarcity causing the price to rise resulting in substitution and through peak oil being a scam. Do some research into why Russia can get Oil out of Vietnam when America said there was none there.

Theres alot worse to come yet. House prices have dropped about 7% in New Zealand and a lot of people think they may fall another 10%. I would be very surprised if they dont drop another 20%. Given the amount they went up theyre still so far above their long term averages and itll only take a few more people to lose their jobs (which noone is denying anymore) and be unable to meet their mortgages in a market where theres no buyers. There has been such an unprecedented rise in house prices for such a long time too many people who either have never experienced or dont remember that houses are not an instant quick trip to riches. When houses go up 100% then down 10% that does not make them cheap. Just look at the fundamentals of New Zealand houses compared to US, aside from not having non-recourse loans NZ is in a substantially worse position than the US was we're just a year behind them.

[The Stranger:Me]

Just look at the fundamentals of New Zealand houses compared to US, aside from not having non-recourse loans NZ is in a substantially worse position than the US was we're just a year behind them.

I would have thought that alone would put us in a significantly better position. However, would you care to elaborate on the fundamentals you refer to above?
Not questioning your assertion here of course, just interested to know your thoughts is all.

[SPman]

Theres alot worse to come yet. House prices have dropped about 7% in New Zealand and a lot of people think they may fall another 10%. I would be very surprised if they dont drop another 20%. Given the amount they went up theyre still so far above their long term averages and itll only take a few more people to lose their jobs (which noone is denying anymore) and be unable to meet their mortgages in a market where theres no buyers. There has been such an unprecedented rise in house prices for such a long time too many people who either have never experienced or dont remember that houses are not an instant quick trip to riches. When houses go up 100% then down 10% that does not make them cheap. Just look at the fundamentals of New Zealand houses compared to US, aside from not having non-recourse loans NZ is in a substantially worse position than the US was we're just a year behind them.

Ah - just like the early 90's - driving down street after street with For Sale signs on 90% of the houses.......

[Bullitt]

I would have thought that alone would put us in a significantly better position. However, would you care to elaborate on the fundamentals you refer to above?
Not questioning your assertion here of course, just interested to know your thoughts is all.

NZ as a whole has an advantage that our Government is not heavily indebted like the US government is but the two biggest issues for NZ that I see are 1)our totally unsustainable current account deficit and 2)the amount of household indebtedness.

Id suggest you read this by Bernard Hickey
http://www.stuff.co.nz//blogs/showme...an-they-iousa/