Statistical chances of crashing

**dpex** · 20th May 2009, 18:29

Unless my understanding of basic math is way off, then it seems to me that the statistical chance of being involved in a crash of any sort is, in fact, infinitesimal.

To save head-space, I wish to limit the following to collisions between two vehicles (of any type and size).

Therefore, to become involved in a collision at least three things are required.

1. Two vehicles.

2. Velocity.

3. A time-window.

It is item 3 which suggests the chances of being involved in a collision is, in fact, infinitesimal. And so it is upon the time-window which I ask you to dwell.

Consider this. A collision time-window can be reasonably limited to four seconds, but let's extend that to ten seconds. Hell's teeth, surely even the most brain-dead driver/rider can avoid a collision with 10 seconds warning.

Stop right now and count off ten seconds, just to get a feeling for exactly how big the time-window really is.

For those with a really fetid imagination, imagine yourself standing in front of a firing squad counting off your last ten seconds. It's a bloody long time.

And so, if you accept that 10 seconds is a reasonable window of opportunity to become involved in an unavoidable crash, it follows that during any minute while driving/riding you live through six crash-opportunity windows. During any hour you live through 360 crash-opportunities.

But it's not just you. There are something to the order of 1.7 million vehicles registered in NZ.

Let's fairly assert that during any average daylight-day, the 1.7 million vehicles each (averagely) complete a half hour journey. It follows that during any average day-light day, throughout NZ drivers/riders complete 850,000 hours of travel.

850,000 hours provides 306 million collision time-windows, per average daylight day.

Now let's assume that during an average year there are say, 20,000 collisions of all types. That's roughly 55 per day.

Now divide 306 million collision time-windows, per day, by the average daily crash-rate and you find the statistical chances of you being involved in 'any' sort of collision is 5,563,636-to-1. That's about the same statistical chance of winning Lotto.

If you then use the math to determine the probability of becoming involved in a death accident, the statistical probability is mind-boggling.

Granted, the foregoing is cold-comfort to those who have been involved, but it does make one wonder what all the fuss is about.

**McDuck** · 20th May 2009, 18:32

But crashig isnt random like lotto, crashing is caused by sombody doing somthing wrong.

**Motu** · 20th May 2009, 18:40

You need to factor in target fixation - possibly the biggest factor in vehicle/vehicle crashes.

**98tls** · 20th May 2009, 18:45

Originally Posted by Motu

You need to factor in target fixation - possibly the biggest factor in vehicle/vehicle crashes.

Possibly the same thing but factor in that it seems many motorcyclists when faced with a collision do simply nothing.

**Jantar** · 20th May 2009, 19:19

Sorry, Wrong Number. The true probability is (1 - Pr(n)) where Pr(n) is the probability of NOT having an accident.

However to take your methodology one step further, lets assume that you are unlucky enough to have an accident, What are the chances that you will be injured?

The average motorcyclist travels around 17000 km per year. There are 8766 hours in an average year (including leap years), so your average speed on your bike is just under 2 kph. If you hit another vehicle head on then your combined average speed will be just under 4 kph.

According to the police the chance of being killed or injured in an accident is 50% at 50kph (the legal speed limit in tows) and this reduces by 2% for every 1 kph reduction in speed. So that at an average speed of 4 kph there is absolutely no chance of being injured in an accident.

So by using averaging, not only have you proved that its almost impossible to have an accident, but if you do have one then the most that can happen would be a light bruise.

**98tls** · 20th May 2009, 19:26

Wheres Katman?

**Skyryder** · 20th May 2009, 19:29

so where does the law of averages fit into the equation??

Skyryder

**dpex** · 22nd May 2009, 17:42

Originally Posted by Jantar

Sorry, Wrong Number. The true probability is (1 - Pr(n)) where Pr(n) is the probability of NOT having an accident.

However to take your methodology one step further, lets assume that you are unlucky enough to have an accident, What are the chances that you will be injured?

The average motorcyclist travels around 17000 km per year. There are 8766 hours in an average year (including leap years), so your average speed on your bike is just under 2 kph. If you hit another vehicle head on then your combined average speed will be just under 4 kph.

According to the police the chance of being killed or injured in an accident is 50% at 50kph (the legal speed limit in tows) and this reduces by 2% for every 1 kph reduction in speed. So that at an average speed of 4 kph there is absolutely no chance of being injured in an accident.

So by using averaging, not only have you proved that its almost impossible to have an accident, but if you do have one then the most that can happen would be a light bruise.

You are probably not aware of the fact that there was a glider, a V-Tailed job, named the Jantar, which crashed a lot due to poor design.

It seems you are carrying on the 'family' name.

Your analysis has nothing to do with the statistical probability of becoming involved in a collision.

And it wasn't really even vaguely humorous from an ironic view.

**dpex** · 22nd May 2009, 17:58

Originally Posted by McDuck

But crashig isnt random like lotto, crashing is caused by sombody doing somthing wrong.

Almost right, McDuck but....Except you got things back to front. Crashing results from two drivers doing something wrong, randomly.

Although you may wish to argue that God is sitting at his desk, bored shitless, and simply arranging crashes for His entertainment.

I mean, He wouldn't have the thrill of wondering what might happen if he conditions two drivers to crash...on account of He knows all which was, all which is, and which will be....Fuck what a boring existence he must have. Imagine having absolutely nothing to look forward to on account of you know all which is going to happen anyway.

Imagine being God watching McDuck and Mrs O'Hagey traverse the byways.

McDuck is doing anal-retentive and traveling at 99.78Kph and thus is pissing God off for being such a woose. Then there's Mrs O'Hagey, who is returning from giving here key-note speech to the Sceptics Society, entitled, 'God Is An Illusion'.

One woose. One unbeliever. One bored God. He knows what will happen but at least he gets the fun from watching Mrs O'Hagey pull out in front of McDuck, and watch McDuck's bike hit Mrs O'Hagey's car and turn McDuck into a human version of Jonathon Livingston Seagull, till he hits the tree. Splat!

Yup. It's all God's fault. My math exposition cannot compete.

**Big Dave** · 22nd May 2009, 18:22

Originally Posted by Skyryder

so where does the law of averages fit into the equation??

Skyryder

In the middle.

**NighthawkNZ:Me** · 22nd May 2009, 18:24

Originally Posted by Skyryder

so where does the law of averages fit into the equation??

Skyryder

UnderneathSods law which below the Murphy laws

**FJRider** · 22nd May 2009, 18:30

To collide, another vehicle is not always required. A tree, a power pole, a fence, a rock face ... the list goes on ...

Collisions are a minor number of "accidents" ...

**FJRider** · 22nd May 2009, 18:33

Originally Posted by Skyryder

so where does the law of averages fit into the equation??

Skyryder

There are some ..... above average .... lucky them. Most bins win's ... apparently ...

**Katman** · 22nd May 2009, 18:47

Originally Posted by dpex

You are probably not aware of the fact that there was a glider..........

Oh, how I chortled.

**yod** · 22nd May 2009, 18:55

Originally Posted by dpex

And so, if you accept that 10 seconds is a reasonable window of opportunity to become involved in an unavoidable crash, it follows that during any minute while driving/riding you live through six crash-opportunity windows. During any hour you live through 360 crash-opportunities.

how many oncoming cars can you go past in a minute?

it's a fuck of a lot more than 6....and every one of those fuckers is a "crash-opportunity"