Statistical chances of crashing

[p.dath]

Oh yeah, and you are also assuming that accidents are uniformly distributed across your crash windows. I'm guessing the time of the day has a large impact on the crash rate when considered by hour of the day.

[dpex]

I would also consider the formula related to availability. You need to consider the MTTR (mean time to repair). e,g. Once an accident has happened, that driver is not "available" to have another accident until they are "repaired".

You must smoke some good shit, man. Can I get some?

[bogan]

read this http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/...-Factsheet.pdf read that, should offer some factual insight into the actual crash distributions and reasons, beats mad up statistics any day!

30% of people cannot understand the statistics produced by 72% of the remaining 15% of the total population

[cc rider]

I have got hypothetical double.....
Swap?.....

Are you talking predictions of double displacement reactions of 2 ionic compounds that are dissolved in water as in "AB (aq) + CD (aq) ® AD + CB" or maybe just some other thingy?

Happy to swap though, yeah?

[Big Dave]

89.23% of statistics are made up on the spot

7.0% of us always give a similar response

[dpex]

read this http://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/...-Factsheet.pdf read that, should offer some factual insight into the actual crash distributions and reasons, beats mad up statistics any day!

30% of people cannot understand the statistics produced by 72% of the remaining 15% of the total population

Yeah Yeah Yeah, the stats are great, if not subject to an amount of subjective determination.

But that still does not defy the fact that the likelihood of any driver being inside to 2/5/10 second window of opportunity, required to to become involved in a crash 'with another vehicle' is infinitesimal.

Remember, to become involved in a crash with another vehicle you have to be at precisely the same place, at precisely the same time as the other vehicle.

Before your path-crossing with any other vehicle is a billion billion years. After you pass will come another billion billion years. It's only the ten seconds between to two sets of billion years which count for a crash to occur.

And so I come back to the point. 1.7 million drivers, doing just one hour per day, average. 1.7 million hours of daily driving, which provides 612 million, ten second windows for a two vehicle crash, per day.

I mean, really! What are the statistical odds for becoming involved in a two vehicle collision?

I figure I've completed, probably, in excess of 900,000Ks in the last forty years. Take my average speed throughout as say, 60Kph. That's 17,000 hours of driving ride (on the roads). Thus 61 million, 200 thousand windows of ten-second opportunities for me to have become involved in a crash have passed.

How may crashes have I had, to date? Zero.

Therefore, my current chances of having had a crash are 61,200,000-to-1.

Better odds than Lotto.

Mind you. Should I ever become involved in such a crash, the odds resile to !-to-1.

[Jantar]

You are probably not aware of the fact that there was a glider, a V-Tailed job, named the Jantar, which crashed a lot due to poor design.

It seems you are carrying on the 'family' name.

Your analysis has nothing to do with the statistical probability of becoming involved in a collision.

And it wasn't really even vaguely humorous from an ironic view.

I am very aware that there was a glider called the Jantar (and still is). It is not a V-tail and has a very good safety record. Three were imported into New Zealand in 1979, and one was destroyed in an accident on Mt Benmore. The pilot survived in circumstances such that had he been in almost any other glider he would have been killed. The other two Jantars are still flying. One is based in Taupo and the other at Omarama.

Jantar is my username because it is my favourite type of glider. One I have flown successfully in competitions and aerobatic demonstrations.