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Thread: Flu "pandemic"

  1. #76
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    Okay, I haven't read this entire thread, but here's some stuff to think about.

    1. The media hyping this is a good thing.
    I was in Singapore and Malaysia during the bird flu outbreak, the Avian pandemic would have been worse without the massive reaction from authorities - the part the media played was that it scared everyone into using protection and isolated people from one another.

    2. A pandemic is inevitable.
    Ebola is a good example, it's a nasty little bug, but it kills people too quickly - with modern jet travel, a nasty virus like ebola could decimate the population, if it were airborne, and if it was slightly less efficient.

    3. Virus vs modern medicine.
    Guess how many viruses we can cure with all the benefits on modern medicine. None, zip, zero, nada. You either live through an infection, or die.

    4. Is this the big one? Probably not, reports are coming in from the states that the strain seems to "water down", most of the second generation seem to be surviving.

    5. 1918, and the black plague. The plague was worse.
    The origins of the plague are disputed among scholars. Some historians believe the pandemic began in China or Central Asia (one such location is lake Issyk Kul)[6] in the lungs of the bobac variety of marmot, spreading to fleas, to rats, and eventually to humans.[7] In the late 1320s or 1330s, and during the next years merchants and soldiers carried it over the caravan routes until in 1346 it reached the Crimea in South Eastern Europe. Other scholars believe the plague was endemic in that area. In either case, from Crimea the plague spread to Western Europe and North Africa during the 1340s.[8][9] The total number of deaths worldwide is estimated at 75 million people,[10] approximately 25–50 million of which occurred in Europe.[11][12] The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population.[13][14][15] It may have reduced the world's population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400.[16]

    I have spent time with the team responsible for a reaction to a pandemic in Auckland, let me assure you that they're pretty smart, and they worry about it. The logistics of a pandemic are awful, collection of bodies, societal breakdown, food distribution, essential service coordination... Fun stuff indeed.
    It’s diametrically opposed to the sanitised existence of the Lemmings around me in the Dilbert Cartoon hell I live in; it’s life at full volume, perfect colour with high resolution and 10,000 watts of amplification.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by peasea View Post
    It's amazing how well things run when you leave well alone isn't it?

    Fuckin' media! They climbed onto the property bandwagon just as we put our house on the market. It's a conspiracy I say..
    I agree, speculation is the greatest conspiracy, people have and will always go mobbing in the directions of the media's musings.

    Property Development was the same!

    Still if you can get the facts without the breathlessness, it would be nice
    ter·ra in·cog·ni·ta
    Achievement is not always success while reputed failure often is. It is honest endeavor, persistent effort to do the best possible under any and all circumstances.
    Orison Swett Marden

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikkel View Post
    At least the rest of us will be able to have a bloody good fry-up for no money at all then
    Yeah - I think I'll order a tonne of bacon...
    . “No pleasure is worth giving up for two more years in a rest home.” Kingsley Amis

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by T.G.W View Post
    I agree, speculation is the greatest conspiracy, people have and will always go mobbing in the directions of the media's musings.

    Property Development was the same!

    Still if you can get the facts without the breathlessness, it would be nice
    That's called quality journalism, pretty hard to find these days.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by slofox View Post
    Yeah - I think I'll order a tonne of bacon...
    You sure it'll be a tonne and not a ton?
    It is preferential to refrain from the utilisation of grandiose verbiage in the circumstance that your intellectualisation can be expressed using comparatively simplistic lexicological entities. (...such as the word fuck.)

    Remember your humanity, and forget the rest. - Joseph Rotblat

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikkel View Post
    You sure it'll be a tonne and not a ton?
    Yep...1000kg
    . “No pleasure is worth giving up for two more years in a rest home.” Kingsley Amis

  7. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by madbikeboy View Post

    1. The media hyping this is a good thing.
    I was in Singapore and Malaysia during the bird flu outbreak, the Avian pandemic would have been worse without the massive reaction from authorities - the part the media played was that it scared everyone into using protection and isolated people from one another.
    Good post. This point is debatable however because the SARS virus hasn't yet shown itself to be readily transmissible from human to human. Bird to human - yes. Human to human - not known.

    Still, not nice and certainly worth protecting against.

    2. A pandemic is inevitable.
    Ebola is a good example, it's a nasty little bug, but it kills people too quickly - with modern jet travel, a nasty virus like ebola could decimate the population, if it were airborne, and if it was slightly less efficient.
    Agreed. There will inevitably be a pandemic, history shows us that.

    There are 4 strains of Ebola, one of Marburg and one of Lassa Fever. These are regarded as the most deadly of the transmissible viral diseases. So far they are largely confined to Africa but air travel means they can easily enter our community.

    3. Virus vs modern medicine.
    Guess how many viruses we can cure with all the benefits on modern medicine. None, zip, zero, nada. You either live through an infection, or die.
    Totally agree.

    I have spent time with the team responsible for a reaction to a pandemic in Auckland, let me assure you that they're pretty smart, and they worry about it. The logistics of a pandemic are awful, collection of bodies, societal breakdown, food distribution, essential service coordination... Fun stuff indeed.
    Well said. My wife is also involved with this planning and its a hugely complicated matter. For example, if 20% of families visited the supermarket today and stocked up on a week's food, there be nothing tomorrow for the rest of us. And if the warehouses, truckies, petrol stations all shut down, no resupply.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston001 View Post

    There are 4 strains of Ebola, one of Marburg and one of Lassa Fever. These are regarded as the most deadly of the transmissible viral diseases. So far they are largely confined to Africa but air travel means they can easily enter our community.
    Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever, the Zaire variant has a 90% mortality rate (greater than 80% average since the first outbreak). It is difficult to spread, it kills very quickly, and it isn't airborne. Scientists have been trying to find the host organism for 30 years, and they've tested some 30,000 animals.

    If Ebola were airborne, and if it were slightly less virile and fragile, we'd all be seriously fucked.

    The black plauge was also hemorrhagic fever (supposedly), so that puts that one into perspective. 50 - 75 million deaths between 1300 - 1400. I'm not interested in the human viruses, I'm interested in how computer viruses spread, it's almost identical in terms of model...
    It’s diametrically opposed to the sanitised existence of the Lemmings around me in the Dilbert Cartoon hell I live in; it’s life at full volume, perfect colour with high resolution and 10,000 watts of amplification.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maha View Post
    Just stay away from sneezing pigs and y'all will be ok.
    No body move... I dropped my brain

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stirts View Post
    Theres nothing in your quote, what happened to your quote? did the pig virus get it in because there is no mask?

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by madbikeboy View Post
    Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever, the Zaire variant has a 90% mortality rate (greater than 80% average since the first outbreak). It is difficult to spread, it kills very quickly, and it isn't airborne. Scientists have been trying to find the host organism for 30 years, and they've tested some 30,000 animals.

    If Ebola were airborne, and if it were slightly less virile and fragile, we'd all be seriously fucked.

    The black plauge was also hemorrhagic fever (supposedly), so that puts that one into perspective. 50 - 75 million deaths between 1300 - 1400....
    Didn't know that - rather begs the question of what happened to the virus? Presumably it is still around in a reservoir somewhere.

    The haemorrhagic diseases are swift and awful. Ebola Uganda is a bit tougher than the others and could spread if it ever got underway. Whats interesting - and frightening - is the military research which has gone into weaponising Ebola.

    Viral diseases require a vector to infect the next host. Commonly this is bacteria in bodily fluid such as a sneeze. However Ebola, Marburg etc aren't very good at hanging around in midair waiting to be inhaled. So weaponising requires a medium which will protect the virus from ultraviolet and dehydration until it can get to a human.

    All of which is entirely irrelevant to the current situation......

  12. #87
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    I was in ...oink...Spain for the last two weeks...grunt.
    Four days before ...oink...leaving, I started getting stiff and sore...oink...
    Two days before leaving I started sneezing and a sore throat developed...
    Then blocked ...oink ...sinuses which are no fun when flying...grunt
    Rested for the weekend then to work on Mon....oink...day (Mining Camp )
    Tuesday morning...I read that there....oink...is confirmed cases of Piggy flu in Spain...grunt.
    Straight to the Doc and the conversation went like this...

    Hi doc, last week oink. oink oink oink! oink ...oink oink?

    Lets check your temp...okay? oink!

    No your temp is fine if it was over 38 C I would be concerned, and you are not showing any other of the main swine flu signs, so heres some good drugs and you can run along now little piggy!

    Okay, Oink you very much..

    That pretty much it, and I guess reading the above you can assume I am still using those good drugs....Still have sore throat and coughing up lots o phelgum but improving.

    Oink

  13. #88
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    This site is worth a browse.
    http://www.idemc.org/index.php?area=

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by madbikeboy View Post
    The black plauge was also hemorrhagic fever (supposedly), so that puts that one into perspective. 50 - 75 million deaths between 1300 - 1400.
    Quote Originally Posted by Winston001 View Post
    Didn't know that - rather begs the question of what happened to the virus? Presumably it is still around in a reservoir somewhere.
    The Black Death was an outbreak of bubonic plague which is caused by a bacterium. The last (third) pandemic of this plague killed millions worldwide between the mid-18th to early-20th centuries.

    When I lived in Colorado I was told that prairie dogs carry bubonic plague and a few people in the US catch it each year. I stayed well away from prairie dog holes!

    Yeah, it's still around.

    My view on the swine flu: I hope the public health authorities err on the side of overreaction to it and squelch it now, so in a couple of years time people like Slofox can claim it as yet another false alarm. Luckily the virus seems to be cooperating by becoming less virulent as it spreads. But I do find the breathless media coverage of these things a bit irritating.

    What, me worry?

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by madbikeboy View Post
    The black plauge was also hemorrhagic fever (supposedly), so that puts that one into perspective. 50 - 75 million deaths between 1300 - 1400. I'm not interested in the human viruses, I'm interested in how computer viruses spread, it's almost identical in terms of model...
    And to put that into perspective that was somewhere between 10 and 20% of the entire population of the world. I.e. today, if things got equally bad, we'd be looking at upwards of 1 billion - 1,000 million - 1,000,000,000 dead people. And that's not even taking into account that the population is much much more mobile these days - ergo spread across continents would be a breeze.

    It's an interesting thing - for a virus to be devestating it can't be too effective. It'll need a longish incubation time with no disturbing symptoms - but also an efficient way of spreading. I.e. something that'll keep you sneezing for a couple of weeks before it kills you...

    Still, we've got other things than viruses to worry about too.
    It is preferential to refrain from the utilisation of grandiose verbiage in the circumstance that your intellectualisation can be expressed using comparatively simplistic lexicological entities. (...such as the word fuck.)

    Remember your humanity, and forget the rest. - Joseph Rotblat

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