Weather or not: Rnd 5

[wharfy]

MANAWATU (filed at 15-SEP-2010 04:32)

Wednesday
Long fine spells. Westerlies, tending northerly tonight.

Thursday:
Becoming cloudy and rain developing around the middle of the day, then easing to showers by evening. Northerlies easing in the after
noon, then gusty northwesterlies developing at night.

Friday:
Occasional rain, becoming persistent for a time in the afternoon. Strong and gusty northwesterlies.

Saturday:
Rain at times. Strong and gusty northwesterlies.

Sunday:
Early rain easing to a few showers. Strong northwesterlies easing and turning southwest.


PALMERSTON_NORTH (filed at 5:08pm Wednesday, 15th September 2010)

Temps from PALMERSTON_NORTH_A


Thursday
Rain developing late morning. Gusty northerly.
Max temperature of 13 degrees and minimum of 8

Friday
Occasional rain. Strong and gusty northwesterlies.
Max temperature of 17 degrees and minimum of 7

Saturday
Rain at times. Strong and gusty northwesterlies.
Max temperature of 14 degrees and minimum of 9

Sunday
Early rain easing to a few showers. Northwesterlies.
Max temperature of 14 degrees and minimum of 9

[Mental Trousers]

Another wet one then. Wets are your friend

[Shaun]

Another wet one then. Wets are your friend

Are we talking about women here

[roadracingoldfart]

And i should believe that for what reason ????
Twice this week alone Kapiti was meant to have showers/rain in the morn , clearing later in the day and yet it was fine all bloody day lol . Im sure the Met service runs a bad odds lottery with forecasts.

[roogazza]

And i should believe that for what reason ????
Twice this week alone Kapiti was meant to have showers/rain in the morn , clearing later in the day and yet it was fine all bloody day lol . Im sure the Met service runs a bad odds lottery with forecasts.

Come car racing Paul! Much less stressful and you get wipers ! G

[roadracingoldfart]

Come car racing Paul! Much less stressful and you get wipers ! G

Hell gaz , i tried that before , lots of money and too much prep work for me lol.
I have done drags , speedway saloons , speedway stockcars , and circuit cars in sportsman class , all hard work but lots of fun i agree.
I guess i just stick to what im really good at hehehehe.

Paul.

[wharfy]

And i should believe that for what reason ????
Twice this week alone Kapiti was meant to have showers/rain in the morn , clearing later in the day and yet it was fine all bloody day lol . Im sure the Met service runs a bad odds lottery with forecasts.

'Casue it wasn't someone from the ACT party that said it ?

Forecasting is an "inexact" science - and pretty much anything more than five days out is from a computer generated model.

I've been talking to the chief forecaster and he reckons that this current situation is likely to be pretty accurate (some times its more difficult to predict than at others - shit weather is usually easier )

The MetService keeps careful records of performance (for reporting to the Gov't and for marketing to Airlines etc.)

Some of it is commercially sensitive (the airline stuff for example) but the stuff we do "for the public good" (paid for by your taxes ) like severe weather warnings can be revealed.

The following graphs show PoDs and FARs - Probability of Detection and False Alarm Ratio with the combination shown as CSI's - the Critical Success Factor.

(nothing to do with Miami, sunglasses or high powered electron microscopes)

A perfect record would show zero false alarms and 100% probability of detection. As you can see by the charts about 90% of the time Metservice correctly predicted a severe weather event before it happened (so the farmers got there sheep in etc.) good result. Unfortunately about 20% of the time Metservice predicted shit weather and it didn't happen - erring on the side of caution as it were. That brings the Critical Success Factor down to about 80% for rain, just under 80% for wind and about 75% or so for snow (we don't get many snow events in NZ so its more difficult to get a good score).

Disclaimer : I'm not a weather person I'm a computer person !!
And nobody would be happier than me if we are wrong this weekend !!!

Severe Weather Warnings - PoD, CSI and FAR - the last year

[roadracingoldfart]

Wow , did i hit a nerve ??? sorry , no intention meant towards you , sorry.
I prefer my weather rock to forecast acurate patterns.
when its wet its raining ,
when its white its snowing ,
when its hot its sunny ,
when its gone there was a huge fucking wind last nite.

Mind you , when the radio says a storm the size of bloody Aussie is coming i tend to book for a wet rock for sure.

[wharfy]

Wow , did i hit a nerve ??? sorry , no intention meant towards you , sorry.
I prefer my weather rock to forecast acurate patterns.
when its wet its raining ,
when its white its snowing ,
when its hot its sunny ,
when its gone there was a huge fucking wind last nite.

Mind you , when the radio says a storm the size of bloody Aussie is coming i tend to book for a wet rock for sure.

It's OK I'm not offended or anything ( I am an insensitive swine).
Just taking the opportunity to skite a bit.
Weather forecasts are only ever remembered if they are wrong, thats just the way it goes

Sadly it hasn't improved, you might need a snorkle to check out your weather rock !

PALMERSTON_NORTH (filed at 5:17pm Thursday, 16th September 2010)

Temps from PALMERSTON_NORTH_A


Friday
Squally showers, afternoon thunder. Strong northwest.
Max temperature of 15 degrees and minimum of 7

Saturday
Showers,chance thundery. Strong,gusty northwesterlies.
Max temperature of 14 degrees and minimum of 8

Sunday
Occasional showers. Strong northwesterlies.
Max temperature of 15 degrees and minimum of 7

MANAWATU (filed at 16-SEP-2010 04:37)

Thursday
Cloudy with a few showers. Fresh westerly winds.

Friday:
Showers, becoming heavy and squally from about midday with possible thunderstorms and hail. Northwest winds strengthening in the mo
rning, gusts 110 km/h.

Saturday:
Occasional showers, some heavy squally and possibly thundery in the morning. Strong gusty northwesterlies.

Sunday:
Occasional showers. Strong northwesterlies easing for a time.

Monday:
Occasional showers. Strong westerlies.

Tuesday:
Showers and strong westerlies.

[discodan]

Looking out the window I can see blue sky with a few clouds on the horizon, fairly warmish by Palmy standards but looks a bit windy. Must be pretty decent at the track at this point in time...

[Deano]

Sadly it hasn't improved, you might need a snorkle to check out your weather rock !

But it only says showers Kev - that's better than rain isn't it ?

[White trash]

Have fun playing in the puddles AGAIN boys.

[cowboyz]

Looking out the window I can see blue sky with a few clouds on the horizon, fairly warmish by Palmy standards but looks a bit windy. Must be pretty decent at the track at this point in time...

ha.. that was 10am this morning! Its been pissing down so hard all day its woken me up twice! I have seen less water while scuba diving in lake Taupo. This weekend is going to be really really really wet! so suck!!!!!!

Still gonna be there... got a new set of wet tyres I wanna try out.

[Genie]

ha.. that was 10am this morning! Its been pissing down so hard all day its woken me up twice! I have seen less water while scuba diving in lake Taupo. This weekend is going to be really really really wet! so suck!!!!!!

Still gonna be there... got a new set of wet tyres I wanna try out.

Nothing quite like a bit of puddle jumping...have fun

[Marknz]

Thinking positive here... we've had two of the fronts come through, and if the third blows through over night then we should be all go for a good day of racing tomorrow and Sunday