What does your future hold?

[98tls]

Problems what problems?If the suns shining when i wake theres a chance of a ride,if not then theres a V8 in the garage so no problem.As i get older i find the worlds problems get further from my mind and i really only bother with my own little part of it and those i share it with.Selfish maybe,that or just plain realistic.

[NinjaNanna]

Its easy to be apathetic while we live in our little island paradise. To be honest I've no grand plan or desire to influence the solution, though I would be supportive of attempts to address problems rather than hinder them. (not saying you wouldn't be either)

While we've been in OZ I've had 2 job offers to stay here and expect a 3rd before we leave, but the reality is we love NZ (though we are actually Aussies). I love the isolation from world events and I particularly love that I'm quite certain NZ will fair well when the shit hits the fan, we are already relatively green and I sure we could be self sufficient again in all things that matter if neccessary.

[98tls]

Its easy to be apathetic while we live in our little island paradise. To be honest I've no grand plan or desire to influence the solution, though I would be supportive of attempts to address problems rather than hinder them. (not saying you wouldn't be either)

While we've been in OZ I've had 2 job offers to stay here and expect a 3rd before we leave, but the reality is we love NZ (though we are actually Aussies). I love the isolation from world events and I particularly love that I'm quite certain NZ will fair well when the shit hits the fan, we are already relatively green and I sure we could be self sufficient again in all things that matter if neccessary.

I hear what your saying mate i honestly do,no apathy here and in the course of my life ive had similar thoughts but for my money its mostly gone to hell including our own little bit of paradise here with little to 0 chance of saving,do gooders and co have formed an army big enough to ensure that basic values and any hope of a justice system that does actually deliver is long gone so i guess ive just given it away and look after my own time/space.Sad but true.

[pzkpfw]

Apparently if you start a ponzi scheme, you are a criminal, and you go to jail.

But our entire societies are built on ponzi schemes.

Buy now, consume now; pay later.


Don't worry about the population of today, the children we all have will look after us tommorrow. (And all their children will look after them...)

Don't worry about the animals we are driving to extinction today, we'll start on another animal tommorrow.

Don't worry about the energy we use today, we'll have new (magic) energy sources tommorrow.

Don't worry about the city water supplies running low, we'll just build another dam.



They tell us to save power.

Let's say 4,000,000 people use 1,000 units of some resource. (4,000,000 x 1,000 = 4,000,000,000)
Then say they all save 10%. (4,000,000 x 900 = 3,600,000,000)
It only takes a 12% rise in population before all that 10% saving is used up. (4,480,000 x 900 = 4,032,000,000)



Fewer people, is the only realistic answer.

[Grasshopperus]

You call me an idiot, that's fine, not everybody will be part of the solution many will always remain part of the problem.

correct.

Market Forces etc... i'd rather that we did something because it was a prudent move forwards for all of NZ, not just for those who make money for a living in the Market. Yes i'll have a sniff of realism before i go to bed, and then head off to work tomorrow bright eyed and bushy tailed and pay my share etc...

You two are no fun.

Magnanimous assholes

[Winston001]

Great thread Ninjanana, its a huge topic.

For my money there is only one future problem : the Collapse of the Biosphere.

What does this mean? Scientists estimate that the last time the planet was in biological equilibrium was 1960. Up until then for every organism which died, another was born. Since then humans have been eating and killing the worlds biota faster than it can replace itself.

You will all be familiar with the food pyramid. Small feeds big - and we are the biggest in terms of intelligence and lethal ability. The small are shrinking. For example, ocean warming is turning the water slightly acidic which dissolves the shells of plankton and shell-fish, which in turn are the food resource for fish.

Research suggests the Earth can sustain 2 billion human beings at a high standard of living. We are close to 7 billion right now. Our environmental biosphere is close to collapse because of the poisons we pour into it every minute, plus warming. Google frogs and bees if you want evidence.

I don't think any political leader anywhere can stop this and its silly to blame them. As a planet we will hit the wall around 2030. As a remote island nation, we are better placed than anyone else to survive.

[98tls]

Great thread Ninjanana, its a huge topic.

For my money there is only one future problem : the Collapse of the Biosphere.

What does this mean? Scientists estimate that the last time the planet was in biological equilibrium was 1960. Up until then for every organism which died, another was born. Since then humans have been eating and killing the worlds biota faster than it can replace itself.

You will all be familiar with the food pyramid. Small feeds big - and we are the biggest in terms of intelligence and lethal ability. The small are shrinking. For example, ocean warming is turning the water slightly acidic which dissolves the shells of plankton and shell-fish, which in turn are the food resource for fish.

Research suggests the Earth can sustain 2 billion human beings at a high standard of living. We are close to 7 billion right now. Our environmental biosphere is close to collapse because of the poisons we pour into it every minute, plus warming. Google frogs and bees if you want evidence.

I don't think any political leader anywhere can stop this and its silly to blame them. As a planet we will hit the wall around 2030. As a remote island nation, we are better placed than anyone else to survive.

If so then interesting stuff W.

[Winston001]

Curious. Just did an internet search for 50 years in the future and almost every link talks about technology, medicine, long life spans, space, etc. All very interesting but its a completely first world perspective. Nothing about wars, famine, and disease which I'm convinced will be the way the worlds population is brought under control.

True, the wealthy countries will be ok but it seems odd to ignore the misery ahead for most of the human population.

[98tls]

Curious. Just did an internet search for 50 years in the future and almost every link talks about technology, medicine, long life spans, space, etc. All very interesting but its a completely first world perspective. Nothing about wars, famine, and disease which I'm convinced will be the way the worlds population is brought under control.

True, the wealthy countries will be ok but it seems odd to ignore the misery ahead for most of the human population.

Divide and conquer mate,look at this little country,more than 1/2 are forced to live in "that other isle" misery indeed though most seem oblivious to it.

[Banditbandit]

Fuck it - I never expected to live to be this old ... every day is a bonus ... I don't give a flying fuck about the future ... I've seen it already ... at the least a future time I never expected to see ..

[mashman]

Curious. Just did an internet search for 50 years in the future and almost every link talks about technology, medicine, long life spans, space, etc. All very interesting but its a completely first world perspective. Nothing about wars, famine, and disease which I'm convinced will be the way the worlds population is brought under control.

True, the wealthy countries will be ok but it seems odd to ignore the misery ahead for most of the human population.

Probably because the MDG's (auntie Helens project ) will have already solved all of the worlds "problems" by 2015... why bother writing about it if it won't exist ...

[Winston001]

Probably because the MDG's (auntie Helens project ) will have already solved all of the worlds "problems" by 2015... why bother writing about it if it won't exist ...

Very laudable goals but I cannot see them being achieved in a meaningful sense. The global population is growing faster than education and medicine can heal.

I've said above that the collapse of the biosphere is the greatest threat to the entire planet. That collapse is directly linked to the expanding mass of humanity which pollutes and poisons the environment every single moment. Its not an endless process - at some point soon, the whole ecosystem will break down.

No microbes = no worms = loss of soil fertility = starvation. Same for marine organisms.

History shows us that the collapse occurs suddenly and in a cascade - not gradually. Easter Island and Mesopotamia are two examples.

The trouble is we can't impose population control. Politicians are too scared to because people will ignore them. The Chinese attempt didn't work and unofficially has been given up on. If a totalitarian state cannot stop their population growing, what hope have other nations?

Thus we are left with what happens in nature when organisms get out of balance. Rampant disease and death until a new balance is reached. A quick example - NZ's pine forests are a single clone: one virus will wipe the lot out.

[NinjaNanna]

I've been thinking on population control again today for no good reason.

I began contemplating mass contraception, what I arrived at was this:

In times of war governments have no problem imposing conscription or mandatory military service, why? Because they beleive they are fighting for a just and important cause.

What if after giving birth, every women was given an injection, effectively this injection would be a 50/50 lottery as to whether they were given a placebo or a long term birthcontrol drug. Instantly we would bring the birth rates of all countries into decline. All couples would be able to have one child 50% of couples could have 2 or more, 25% could have 3 or more, 12.5% could have 4 or more. But most importantly the birth rate would be less than 2.

Being a blind lottery many ethical considerations could be negated. Negative effects experienced by the Chinese One Child policy would be reduced. By freeing the women of developing countries from constant child rearing they could then engage in education and employment (the only real world non legislative way of addressing birth rates).

With a reducing population the world would have the breathing space it needs to address the environmental problems that we have.

[Indiana_Jones]

Don't know, don't care.

Looking out for number one, which is myself.

Eighteen and life, bitches

-Indy

[Milts]

There are a lot of issues with that, but the one which makes it least practical right now is that the countries with the high birthrates don't have the economic or social power to enforce it - you would need a strong government and medical infrastructure and those exist in the countries with the lowest birthrates.

I can also imagine huge outcry because it's only imposed upon the women, what's to stop a man having multiple children through multiple partners, wouldn't it lead to a huge percentage of women denying being pregnant/having a child and therefore a large percentage of the population who "don't exist" in terms of a birth certificate etc....

The countries which have the biggest population problems seem to be the developing countries, and the developed and westernised countries seem to have the lower birth rates (in general). Surely in that case the "solution" (from our perspective) would be to encourage development and westernisation of currently developing nations?