So when will the sharemarket crash in 2014?

[Brian d marge]

As at February 2014, the M0 notes and coins in circulation amounted to NZ$4,307,000.

Interestingly that is less than December 2013 which was NZ$4,350,000.

What about m1 and 2

do you have a link for the above ?

Stephen

[Ocean1]

Investor Marc Faber predicts a crash 'worse than 1987'

Aye. And with a book on the same topic to sell he would predict that, wouldn't he? For the American market at that.

But then... http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...likely-analyst

But Mint Asset Management equities portfolio manager Anthony Halls said there was little risk of a big crash on the NZX. He said New Zealand's strong sharemarket was supported by an improving economy.

"The market has performed well for a couple of years so on most measures it would be fair value. We don't think it's over-valued. "Earnings per share growth is coming through and we're not particularly worried,"



"In New Zealand the economy is priced for massive strength already, while in Australia it's priced for an economy that's a bit weaker than it was before," Tuck said.

[scrivy]

But Mint Asset Management equities portfolio manager Anthony Halls said there was little risk of a big crash on the NZX. He said New Zealand's strong sharemarket was supported by an improving economy.

"The market has performed well for a couple of years so on most measures it would be fair value. We don't think it's over-valued. "Earnings per share growth is coming through and we're not particularly worried,"

He says that on one hand, then the article says "A week of market mayhem has knocked almost $1 billion off the value of NZX-listed software stocks. Cloud accounting company Xero took the brunt of the punishment with $823 million knocked off the company's market capitalisation.... Xero, which in November rose to become the NZX's second-most valuable stock, has now drifted down to sixth place.... The drop will in some investors' views have only restored some sanity to the market... Xero has not been the only Kiwi technology stock to be buffeted about this week. Recent listing Wynyard Group fell 16 per cent and is 30 per cent off its record high. Fellow newbie SLI Systems shed 14 per cent and is 34 per cent off its high. The NZX's broader SciTech index is 17 per cent off the record it achieved on January 22."

So.... which is it....??? An improving economy with little risk of a crash, or will the technology stocks suffer a collapse??? The article is a joke.

[Ocean1]

He says that on one hand, then the article says "A week of market mayhem has knocked almost $1 billion off the value of NZX-listed software stocks. Cloud accounting company Xero took the brunt of the punishment with $823 million knocked off the company's market capitalisation.... Xero, which in November rose to become the NZX's second-most valuable stock, has now drifted down to sixth place.... The drop will in some investors' views have only restored some sanity to the market... Xero has not been the only Kiwi technology stock to be buffeted about this week. Recent listing Wynyard Group fell 16 per cent and is 30 per cent off its record high. Fellow newbie SLI Systems shed 14 per cent and is 34 per cent off its high. The NZX's broader SciTech index is 17 per cent off the record it achieved on January 22."

So.... which is it....??? An improving economy with little risk of a crash, or will the technology stocks suffer a collapse??? The article is a joke.

The former I'd say, the article did suggest "an improving economy with little chance of a crash" Where did it mention "technology stocks would suffer a collapse"?

He also said "The drop will in some investors' views have only restored some sanity to the market" which pretty well covered the articles' message. The fact that a single entity dealing in such intangibles took a dive and knocked "technology" stocks off their record high hardly constitutes the makings of a sharemarket crash.

[scrivy]

The former I'd say, the article did suggest "an improving economy with little chance of a crash" Where did it mention "technology stocks would suffer a collapse"?
I said "or will the technology stocks suffer a collapse?". He said there's little chance of a crash - but if the Tech stocks tumble, then that will start a bail out of the market, as per the Dot.Com era... which will lead to a crash...

He also said "The drop will in some investors' views have only restored some sanity to the market" which pretty well covered the articles' message. The fact that a single entity dealing in such intangibles took a dive and knocked "technology" stocks off their record high hardly constitutes the makings of a sharemarket crash.

Agreed, but to newbies and investors with little buffering capacities, they will see the market as starting its decline, which will start the sell off....

That's all I meant about his remarks "Little chance of a crash..." No one can predict a crash, but there are warning signs out there that people should be weary of.... To say there's 'little chance' is like saying to kids, eat as much candy as you want, you won't get fat......

[Ocean1]

Agreed, but to newbies and investors with little buffering capacities, they will see the market as starting its decline, which will start the sell off....

That's all I meant about his remarks "Little chance of a crash..." No one can predict a crash, but there are warning signs out there that people should be weary of.... To say there's 'little chance' is like saying to kids, eat as much candy as you want, you won't get fat......

Which is why investors with little buffering capacity should probably stick to low risk investments. However, as long as they don't stick their hand in my pocket when it turns to custard what they do with their hard earned cash is nothing to do with me. Nor will the market crash from a position where stock prices are driven by clearly defined returns, which is what Halls suggested is largely the current situation.

I think that's THE key indicator of an imminent crash: Stock prices based on growth in stock prices. It's been a factor evident immediately prior to most historic crashes, including the recent sub-prime loan driven fiasco. Which begs a comparison to NZ's property prices: Bureaucratic meddling with supply has created an artificial boom, based on nothing more than the lack of supply driving prices up. When prices are closer to, say 10 times annual rent then they'll be about right.

[scrivy]

Which is why investors with little buffering capacity should probably stick to low risk investments. However, as long as they don't stick their hand in my pocket when it turns to custard what they do with their hard earned cash is nothing to do with me. Nor will the market crash from a position where stock prices are driven by clearly defined returns, which is what Halls suggested is largely the current situation.

I think that's THE key indicator of an imminent crash: Stock prices based on growth in stock prices. It's been a factor evident immediately prior to most historic crashes, including the recent sub-prime loan driven fiasco. Which begs a comparison to NZ's property prices: Bureaucratic meddling with supply has created an artificial boom, based on nothing more than the lack of supply driving prices up. When prices are closer to, say 10 times annual rent then they'll be about right.

Nice post. Spot on!

[mashman]

Aye. And with a book on the same topic to sell he would predict that, wouldn't he? For the American market at that.

But then... http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...likely-analyst

But Mint Asset Management equities portfolio manager Anthony Halls said there was little risk of a big crash on the NZX. He said New Zealand's strong sharemarket was supported by an improving economy.

"The market has performed well for a couple of years so on most measures it would be fair value. We don't think it's over-valued. "Earnings per share growth is coming through and we're not particularly worried,"



"In New Zealand the economy is priced for massive strength already, while in Australia it's priced for an economy that's a bit weaker than it was before," Tuck said.

Yeah, what happens in America stays in America .

[Ocean1]

Yeah, what happens in America stays in America .

Yeah, mostly.

But, y'know, whatever...

[

[mashman]

Yeah, mostly.

But, y'know, whatever...

heh... love the cartoon. I didn't realise how good I look in a sandwich board.

[Winston001]

What about m1 and 2

do you have a link for the above ?

Reserve Bank http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/tables/c1/


Here's some more data: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-...oney-supply-m3

It gets confusing referring to M1 and M2 because those money supply measures expand to include bank deposits and easily convertible securities. Which is why I used M0 being the narrowest and measuring the actual notes and coins on issue.

From Wikipedia: "It is easy to confuse the amount of spending money in the economy with the amount of money in the economy."

[Brian d marge]

Thank you when i get home ill have a look
My feeling is the rbnz is usually responsible with the cards they have been dealt

Sent from my SC-01F using Tapatalk

[scrivy]

Hmmmm....................
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...going-to-burst

[scrivy]

More news that things aren't getting better....
http://www.infowars.com/two-more-vic...ldwater-creek/

[Naki Rat]

Hmmmm....................
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...going-to-burst

And if he is correct in claiming that NZ's agriculture only accounts for 5.1% of our GDP that seems a meagre return for the environmental cost of the dairy industry.