Petrol prices will escalate!!

[R6_kid:Me]

stop bitching about the price of gas going up, you cant do anything about it except find more oil in which case they'll just come up with some excuse to put the price up anyway. Start dealing with the problem rather than complaining about it.

That, or go show Mr Rockafella what you're made of.

[BiK3RChiK]

stop bitching about the price of gas going up, you cant do anything about it except find more oil in which case they'll just come up with some excuse to put the price up anyway. Start dealing with the problem rather than complaining about it.

That, or go show Mr Rockafella what you're made of.

I disagree! On 3 News tonight both BP and Shell posted huge increases in profits over the previous year by something like 8% and 12%... We the general public are being shafted in more ways than one!

[homer]

I disagree! On 3 News tonight both BP and Shell posted huge increases in profits over the previous year by something like 8% and 12%... We the general public are being shafted in more ways than one!

yep your right on

[homer]

stop bitching about the price of gas going up, you cant do anything about it except find more oil in which case they'll just come up with some excuse to put the price up anyway. Start dealing with the problem rather than complaining about it.

That, or go show Mr Rockafella what you're made of.

yep your correct in a way as well
but r u stupid enough to believe that the oil amount left to extract is actually at the peak at the moment .
its more force fed BS

[puddytat]

Its ALL going to escalate...
and i dont think Im overly paranoid .....is it just me or are we in the shit?

[Mike748]

I'll be surprised if it doesn't all turn to shit.

There are already enough people who are living day to day hoping to make financial gains on property investments (their homes) but are worried about interest rates, escalating living costs and the change in property market.

Add in more financial pressure and a little job insecurity and things get volatile.

[rainman]

kinda makes you think about more moving to aussie

Won't help, sorry. Why do you think it would?

is there anything we as a country can do

I think there is... but you may not like the answer.

The doomsday prophets will be right, some day, but I doubt it will be in the near future.

Do you have any rational basis for holding that view? I'd count myself as a cautious doomsayer and so far pretty much everything I've expected has happened. And I'm expecting near term trouble.

...problem is, every product we buy has a fuel cost component to it....remember? = price rises

Sadly true, and part of the basis for that near term touble.

Start dealing with the problem rather than complaining about it.

This is a valid point, but it is harder than we think to solve this, and requires a fairly significant reprogramming of our society, politics, employment, international trade, the lot... I don't know if we're ready yet. Perhaps a first step is recognising (and maybe complaining about) the problem. I hope we will come to see this as an opportunity first and a threat second, before it isn't even an opportunity anymore.

I don't believe either of our major political parties can blink first and even acknowledge that there is a problem, and besides in an election year, most debate becomes a dick-measuring contest between the red and the blue teams - all wasted effort and not addressing the real issues we face.
If oil is becoming scarce and expensive, and we're a long way away from everything else, how should we act on issues such as foreign trade, free trade agreements, dependence on tourism and dairy, etc? I mean assuming we were sane...

.....is it just me or are we in the shit?

Nope, I think it's not just you. Even Fatih Birol (Chief Economist of the IEA, so not a left loony nutjob by a long way) said this the other day:

wir sollten das Öl verlassen, bevor das Öl uns verlässt
(we must leave oil, before oil leaves us)

He's predicting "turbulente und hochpreisige Ölmärkte" - turbulent and high priced oil markets, and doesn't believe that markets alone can solve the problems of the oil and gas supply crunch, climate change, and third world energy poverty. He expects a significant supply shortfall by 2015. That's 7 years away. And he's an optimist.

And there's a long list of mainstream people who are similarly signalling (ever so cautiously, in some cases) that there is a supply crunch likely in the short to medium term. (Plenty more who claim the shit starts now, and we're doomed). However, no matter which authority says what, I'm fully expecting this post to be greeted with the usual outpouring of derision - "there's plenty of oil", "climate change is a myth", "someone will do something"... If I'm lucky I might even get an abiotic oil enthusiast!

[Mike748]

.........................

And there's a long list of mainstream people who are similarly signalling (ever so cautiously, in some cases) that there is a supply crunch likely in the short to medium term. (Plenty more who claim the shit starts now, and we're doomed). However, no matter which authority says what, I'm fully expecting this post to be greeted with the usual outpouring of derision - "there's plenty of oil", "climate change is a myth", "someone will do something"... If I'm lucky I might even get an abiotic oil enthusiast!

-In the interest of discussion I'm keen to hear your possible solution.
-Climate change isn't a myth, someone will do something - one day.
-I only want oil/petrol for my bike everything else can go alternative.

For many the increase in living costs has easily been offset by the higher wages created by skill shortages etc. but now you can easily see the rise in basic foods cost as a result of the earlier fuel increases, so what are food prices going to be like at $3 a litre for fuel!?

Also I'm noticing (in general) a serious adversion by many companies to employ staff, or if they are employing it is undertaken as a fixed term contract only. So I ask the question is this the way of future employment, FTC, casuals etc or is this just employers bracing themselves for a downturn?

[Taz]

The answer is simple as much as we hate to admit it. All we have to do is stop using petrol or limit our use. Ride your push bike to work. Think twice about going on that ride etc. Not much fun but one way of limiting the impact of higher fuel prices.

[rainman]

-In the interest of discussion I'm keen to hear your possible solution.
-Climate change isn't a myth, someone will do something - one day.
-I only want oil/petrol for my bike everything else can go alternative.

For many the increase in living costs has easily been offset by the higher wages created by skill shortages etc. but now you can easily see the rise in basic foods cost as a result of the earlier fuel increases, so what are food prices going to be like at $3 a litre for fuel!?

Also I'm noticing (in general) a serious adversion by many companies to employ staff, or if they are employing it is undertaken as a fixed term contract only. So I ask the question is this the way of future employment, FTC, casuals etc or is this just employers bracing themselves for a downturn?

There is only one answer that really makes sense, but I'm not sure it actually is a solution, if by solution you mean something that continues business as usual. The option is to use less, mainly by relocalising our economies. (Getting rid of the penis extension SUV collection won't hurt either, but the market will take care of that - 2nd hand gas guzzler values aren't that good at the moment, according to the local car yards). If oil gets progressively more expensive over the long term, then globalisation basically stops working (this can be both good news and bad - no plasma TVs, but more scope for local manufacturing). Unfortunately, so does air travel for fun and tourism.

To be clear, I don't think we're running out of oil - just that it's going to get much more expensive over the medium term (it may even get a bit cheaper in the next 6 months or so as we all go on an economically enforced energy diet, that is unless Dipshit and Dipshit decide to bomb Iran before leaving office). There are some tech solutions worth implementing, but nothing that will continue today's comfy life as is, and we'd need to get cracking to do them as none are overnight miracles.

I think the long term outlook for food is that it will be more expensive - once more good news and bad: we can grow more of our own (we're quite good at that), but fewer bananas, maybe.

Re FTC, casuals etc: depends on who you elect at the end of the year, I imagine (although Labour aren't that labour-friendly anymore...) Expectation of a recession is slowing everything down, employment first.

And on the "someone will do something - one day" comment: we're the someones.

[eliot-ness]

[QUOTE=rainman;1548550]

Do you have any rational basis for holding that view? I'd count myself as a cautious doomsayer and so far pretty much everything I've expected has happened. And I'm expecting near term trouble.[QUOTE]

Oil company profits depend on being able to sell their products and by far the largest percentage of customers are the ones who can barely afford it now. To increase prices to a level that effectively prices them out of the market would hardly increase profits. I've no doubt that oil will reach $300 a barrel some day, and fuel prices will keep pace, but only when incomes have risen to a level that will sustain it, and that won't be in the short term.
I've lived with these threats of high fuel prices and oil shortages since the mid 1950s when gas cost related to income was more expensive than now, but the price has alway been kept at a level that would allow more people to buy cars, not force them off the road.

[What?]

"The impossible has become possible," Westpac Bank chief economist Brendon O'Donovan said.

I'd like to know why Brendon O'Donovan would think that 3 clams per litre was ever "impossible". What a tosser.

The upside is, high prices are good for availablity, as there is a whole big heap of oil still to be sucked out of the ground that has hitherto not been a financially viable option. Soon it will be.

[rainman]

Oil company profits depend on being able to sell their products and by far the largest percentage of customers are the ones who can barely afford it now. To increase prices to a level that effectively prices them out of the market would hardly increase profits. I've no doubt that oil will reach $300 a barrel some day, and fuel prices will keep pace, but only when incomes have risen to a level that will sustain it, and that won't be in the short term.
I've lived with these threats of high fuel prices and oil shortages since the mid 1950s when gas cost related to income was more expensive than now, but the price has alway been kept at a level that would allow more people to buy cars, not force them off the road.

So, no room in your mental model for actual physical shortage then? Not to mention other geopolitical factors outside of the control of the oil co's that make supply inaccessible?

Also, your logic is flawed: if price rises and demand can keep pace (as it broadly seems to be able to do at the moment) then why would the market care that the poor people in one place are no longer buying, but the less-poor people in another place are? Supply substitution may be a problem, demand substitution is way easier, at least until we have another great depression.

[avgas]

i reckon the whole country should boycott the election in protest

Ummmm no it does no good.
I boycotted the last 2 elections as did 20% of NZ.
We didn't get any vacant seats in the house. They just "reshuffled" the votes.
Democracy my left arse cheek. If there was democracy there would be 20% less politicians than the previous election. not 30% more.
Also did we get an explanation as to why our income tax increased in the last 3 months?

[tri boy]

My Aussie oil shares are doing quite nicely thank you. (please keep buying petrol)