OK. I call bullshit on the AA

[Ixion]

The AA claimed today that motorcycles are 80 times as dangerous as cars (see the other threads on this for details)

So I've done some checking. Using the figures from the AA's own website.

And here they are:

No of licensed motorcyclists in 2002 (latest year I can find) = 473194
No of licensed car drivers in 2002 ( " " " " ) = 2638989

(there will be an overlap, some people have both)

No of motorcycle fatalities (rider and passenger) in 2002 = 30
No of car fatalities ( " " " ) in 2002 = 316

Motorcycle fatalities per motorcyclist = 1 in (473194 / 30 ) = 1 in 15773
Car fatalities per motorist = 1 in (2638989 / 316) = 1 in 8351

In other words the fatality rate of car drivers was TWICE that of motorcyclists. Motorcycles are by this measure TWICE AS SAFE AS CARS

So where did this bullshit "80 times " come from.

I will be ringing the AA tomorrow , and the Herald, and demanding a retraction. Does anyone know a contact at either ?

(Yes, I am aware that the figure of licensed motorcyclists includes some who don't ride. But licensed car drivers also includes some who don't drive. and motorcyclists would have higher annual milages than many car drivers. I'll argue that fatalities per license holder is as fair a measure as any)

Sources : Fatality rates Here
No of license holders Here

[Ixion]

UPDATE:

Found a contact at AA

George Fairbairn
Director Public Affairs
New Zealand Automobile Association
T. +64 4 931 9984
M. +64 21 279 5249
E. gfairbairn@aa.co.nz

Media Contact For:

* Enforcement
* Petrol prices
* Speed limits
* Traffic law


And

Greg Hunting
General Manager Corporate Communications
New Zealand Automobile Association
T. +64 9 966 8949
M. +64 21 755 907
E. ghunting@aa.co.nz

Media Contact For:

* AA Membership
* AA Rewards
* AA Roadservice and AA Roadwatch
* Annual Conference
* Corporate issues
* Driver Training
* Driver and Vehicle licensing
* Financial Services
* General AA issues
* Governance
* International Relations
* Safer Roads Programme

if anyone else want to haul them over the coals also.

[Big Dave]

go scoop!!!

[XP@]

Good work!

Depends what you base the calculation on.
If you used number of accidents per km driven / ridden then the number would be different.
You would also need to take in to account Injuries v's deaths then apart from the numbers, the severity possibly measured by $ cost of recovery.
You may also base it on a controlled impact at a set speed in car and on bike, taking the measure of damage as the factor.

What ever answer you end up with it will be flawed. But the AA's statement is shocking!

I was in the welly AA office earlier in the week and there were about 10 in the office waiting to be served. 3 of these were learner riders who had just passed or were taking their tests!

[Ixion]

Good work!

Depends what you base the calculation on.
If you used number of accidents per km driven / ridden then the number would be different.
You would also need to take in to account Injuries v's deaths then apart from the numbers, the severity possibly measured by $ cost of recovery.
You may also base it on a controlled impact at a set speed in car and on bike, taking the measure of damage as the factor.

What ever answer you end up with it will be flawed. But the AA's statement is shocking!

I was in the welly AA office earlier in the week and there were about 10 in the office waiting to be served. 3 of these were learner riders who had just passed or were taking their tests!

You can prove anything with statistics!.

But I'd argue license holders vs fatality is a good meaure because the numbers are extremely robust. Things like km driven; cost of recovery etc are all vague, and often no more than estimates . And open still further doors for vagueness (km driven : but where and at what speed and in what conditions ).

But the number of licensed motorcylists is a definate number. No guesswork , no argument possible. Ditto the number of fatalities.

And if the "slant" happens to fall our way - well so be it

[avgas]

does this mean a knife is 15000 times more dangerous as a fork? I mean you dont hear about many death by forks do you?
I say we ban all knifes, scissors......infact anything with a sharp edge.
Also we always hear about toddlers putting things in their mouths, so lets ban anything smaller then a toddlers fist.
ban anything that can have a dangeous velocity
ban anything that can blind
ban anything that can cause harm

[Dafe]

When you gonna hang them out to dry?

Can't wait to hear the replies!

[placidfemme]

UPDATE:

Found a contact at AA

George Fairbairn
Director Public Affairs
New Zealand Automobile Association
T. +64 4 931 9984
M. +64 21 279 5249
E. gfairbairn@aa.co.nz

Media Contact For:

* Enforcement
* Petrol prices
* Speed limits
* Traffic law


And

Greg Hunting
General Manager Corporate Communications
New Zealand Automobile Association
T. +64 9 966 8949
M. +64 21 755 907
E. ghunting@aa.co.nz

Media Contact For:

* AA Membership
* AA Rewards
* AA Roadservice and AA Roadwatch
* Annual Conference
* Corporate issues
* Driver Training
* Driver and Vehicle licensing
* Financial Services
* General AA issues
* Governance
* International Relations
* Safer Roads Programme

if anyone else want to haul them over the coals also.

you rock... stick it to them hard!

[SPORK]

you rock... stick it to them hard!

Yep, what she said. Murder them! (With statistics)

[Sniper]

Go for it Ixion

[Beemer]

I like your way of thinking, Ixion - good luck!

Unfortunately statistics tend to be warped - in other words, used to make the point the writer wants. Give two people with different viewpoints the same set of statistics and they will each come up with convincing arguments for their viewpoint.

I still think bike RIDERS are probably safer than car DRIVERS because most of us are more alert. Factor in the near misses and we're probably doing even better!

[curious george]

Clever boy ixion, stick it to them!

[crshbndct]

go ixion
post all emails here

[Postie]

The AA claimed today that motorcycles are 80 times as dangerous as cars

its good to see you have put in the time to check up and look into some other stats, just a point though. The AA said that motorbikes are 80 more dangerous, not that they cause 80 times more fatalities, they were taking it to account injurys as well. I'm not supporting the AA, just wanted to point that out, as thats what the AA are gonna come back with.

that being said, give em hell

[Groins_NZ]

Good on ya mate!