Lethality Comparison: Motorcycling versus Smoking
INTRODUCTION
Smoking is seen in today's society as a bit of a bad habit, but nothing too serious. Hey, you're not hurting anyone right? Motorcycling on the other hand, well, you're a menace to society and an organ donor. Just a few rides away from certain death, better not ride two days in a row either, that's just asking for trouble. But wait, what is actually more dangerous?
The focus of this investigation is solely on fatalities. As injuries/sickness are not accounted for in the statistics I have available. It would be moot anyway, what's worse, a broken arm or pneumonia?
THE FACTS ABOUT MOTORCYCLING
In 2006 there were 110,684 registered
motorcycles and
mopeds[1]. In that year there were 42
motorcycle fatalities[2]. Assuming one person owns one motorcycle or moped.
I accept that this is not always the case, as some individuals will own many cycles - these figures would need to be included in the calculations once a sensible estimate for multiple cycle ownership is devised.
This equates to 0.000379. Take a random group of 10,000 bikers and you would lose 3.79 every year.
HOW THIS COMPARES TO SMOKING
In 2006, 24 percent of New Zealanders aged 15–64 years were cigarette smokers (est. 1,088,594 people)
[3]. "Smoking [causes] an estimated 4,700 deaths each year" [4] Many sources (mostly governmental) place the figure at 4,700. But this figure appears somewhat outdated, circa the late 1990's. The percentage of smokers appears to have dropped 3% since this time. I will use the conservative estimate of 4,000 per year in my calculations. Most fatalities are brought about through respiratory and cardiovascular diseases/cancers which are attributed to smoking
[5]. Note: fatalities from passive smoking
not included.
This equates to 0.00367. Take a random group of 10,000 smokers and you would lose 36.7 every year.
CONCLUSION
If you partake in either activity for an entire lifetime, then you are roughly 10 times more likely to die prematurely from smoking than you are from motorcycling. Exposures can be debated, but leave that for another time. So why is there such a negative label placed on motorcycling by the greater society? Is it the swift horrific nature of motorcycle accidents versus the quiet, creeping diseases of smoking? The fact that motorcycling fatalities usually happen to younger people, and smoking fatalities happen to those who are older? The Media - when was the last time you saw a news story on someone who had just died from smoking? Or does the influence come partly from offshore, such as America, where the motorcycle fatality statistics are far more grim? I would like to know, because I have friends and family who are smokers, and yet they refuse to accept my decision to enter the world of motorcycling. Clearly any harm that came to me would greatly bereave them, but I feel exactly the same about their smoking. At first I found it hypocritical, but maybe it's ignorance more than anything. Ignorance on my part, aswell as theirs. Because if you take a step back you'll see that the overriding message is that there is risk in everything we do. Risk is what makes life worth living, and managing the risks is what makes life long.
ScumDog: "Ships are safe in the harbour - but that's not what ships are for...."
Interesting note: More pedestrians were killed in 2006 than motorcyclists, with 45 fatalities[2].
[1] Land Transport (Page 48)
[2] Land Transport
[3] Ministry of Social Development
[4] Ministry of Health
[5] Statistics New Zealand
IP property of Romeo - I am not a qualified statistician, so double check any figures BEFORE quoting them. All content referenced is the property of their respective owners. Evidently I feel strongly about this topic and wanted to draw my own conclusions based on the FACTS. Apologies if anyone is offended by any of my comments, this is not my intention.
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Originally Posted by Mikkel
Lethality Comparison: Motorcycling versus Smoking
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